Features
Growing challenge of food insecurity and malnutrition in Sri Lanka amidst macroeconomic crisis
By Prof. Amarasiri de Silva
Sri Lanka, renowned for its rich cultural heritage and diverse landscapes, is grappling with an unprecedented macroeconomic crisis. This crisis has given rise to acute shortages and sharp increases in the prices of essential products, creating a complex web of challenges. At the heart of this multifaceted crisis lies a severe impact on food security stemming from disruptions in agricultural production, a depleted treasury, unfavourable harvests, soaring prices, and the abrupt halting of various economic activities.
In a sobering revelation, the annual report of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka has sounded the alarm on the escalating challenges of rising malnutrition among children. This disturbing trend has emerged as a policy concern in Sri Lanka, unfolding against heightened household food insecurity. The report highlights the intricate interplay of economic and social issues that have reached a critical juncture, further exacerbated by the profound financial crisis that unfolded in 2022. As the nation grapples with this dual crisis, the implications for the well-being of its youngest citizens underscore the urgent need for comprehensive interventions to address the pressing issues of malnutrition and food insecurity.
The macroeconomic crisis in Sri Lanka has ushered in a period of significant turmoil, affecting various aspects of daily life. Agriculture, a vital sector for the country’s economy and sustenance, has been particularly hard-hit. Disruptions to agricultural production have resulted in diminished yields, contributing to the scarcity of essential food items. The depleted treasury has strained the government’s capacity to address the crisis effectively, amplifying the challenges faced by the population.
Unfavourable harvests, characterized by erratic weather patterns and environmental stressors, have compounded farmers’ issues. This has led to a situation where the supply of staple foods is insufficient to meet the demands of the population. Consequently, the prices of essential products have skyrocketed, placing an additional burden on the already strained households.
The confluence of these factors has unleashed a substantial impact on food security in Sri Lanka. Families, nationwide, are grappling with uncertainty regarding the availability and affordability of essential food items. The inability to access an adequate and nutritious diet has profound implications for the well-being of individuals, especially vulnerable groups such as children and older adults.
The report underscores the prevalence of child malnutrition in the estate sector, with the Uva province registering the highest number of food-insecure households in January 2016, followed by Sabaragamuwa. According to the DHS-2016, 31.7 percent of children in the estate sector experience stunted growth, significantly higher than the 14.7 percent in urban areas and 17.0 percent in rural sectors. Additionally, 29.7 percent of children, under five years old in the estate sector, were reported to be underweight. The DHS-2016’s depiction of Child Malnutrition Status (below five years old) from 1975 to 2016 highlights the persistent challenges in addressing this issue, with Nuwara Eliya emerging as the district with the highest prevalence of underweight and stunted children under five years.
In Sri Lanka, the tradition of milk consumption has entrenched itself in households across generations, particularly in urban areas. This practice, fostered by nutritional education disseminated through various channels such as media, school curricula, hospitals, and clinics, has steadily increased in popularity. The era before modern media saw newspapers and tabloids discussing nutrition-related topics, emphasizing the significance of cow’s milk as a crucial supplement, especially for mothers, babies, and pregnant and lactating women.
As a testament to this trend, milk consumption has seen a significant increase, which is evident in consumer statistics. Sri Lanka, ranking fourth, globally, in importing powdered milk from New Zealand, collected 283.11 million litres in 2017 through its 13 central milk processors. Despite this, the formal milk market’s share in the estimated production was around 65 percent. Notably, the National Livestock Development Board (NLDB) and MILCO (Pvt) Ltd contributed 11 million litres and 62 million litres to the production.
MILCO with its four milk factories, has extended its services to cater to numerous urban areas, broadening its reach and accessibility to a wider population. The National Livestock Development Board (NLDB) oversees the management of 31 integrated farms that harmoniously maintain livestock and coconut plantations. These farms are vital to the NLDB’s commitment to sustainable agriculture and dairy production. In addition to these integrated farms, the Board operates a dedicated training centre designed to impart practical and theoretical knowledge to farmers, contributing to skill enhancement within the agricultural community.
Recognizing the significance of expanding the impact of these initiatives, it is crucial to establish new farms in the eastern districts, particularly in areas like Ampara. The establishment of farms in these regions can influence local cattle breeders positively, enhancing the quality of cattle-rearing practices. This strategic move aligns with the NLDB’s mission to promote sustainable agriculture, foster knowledge exchange, and contribute to improving livestock management in Sri Lanka.
Examining the economic aspects, the average farm-gate price per litre of milk was Rs. 66.34 in 2017, with an average cost of production recorded at Rs. 34.69. Farmers received a guaranteed price of Rs. 70 per litre from 2017 onwards. Domestic milk production covered 42 percent of the total requirement, with the remaining deficit met through imports, primarily powdered milk, incurring an average cost of Rs. 33.6 billion. In 2016, Sri Lanka imported 94,000 MT of powdered milk, reflecting a per capita consumption of 110.33 ml of fresh milk and 341.36 g of powdered milk per month.
The Hector Kobbekaduwa Agrarian Research and Training Institute (HARTI) was surveyed in 2016, focusing on consumer preferences for milk and milk powder in the Colombo, Kandy, and Matara districts. These areas represented the highest household expenditure on milk and dairy products, with a sample size of 400 households.
Despite the apparent popularity of milk consumption, challenges persist. Child malnutrition, particularly among estate Tamils, indicates insufficient milk intake. While statistics show a range of milk consumption, the import data has sparked controversy. Some argue that the statistics are faulty, with claims that Sri Lanka’s milk production can cover 70 percent of the country’s requirement, questioning the purpose behind milk powder imports.
Furthermore, the NLB’s milk production statistics for 2018 reveal the production of 14 million litres from 11,000 neat cattle. Assuming every person in the country consumes half a litre of milk daily, the NLB’s production would only cater to 0.36 percent of the total population. Calls for increased government efforts to boost NLB’s production not only aim to enhance revenue but also to reduce foreign exchange spent on importing powdered milk.
For more detailed statistics, you can refer to the NLD Title: “Navigating Crisis: A Holistic Approach to Food Security and Dairy Sustainability in Sri Lanka’.
A significant crisis in Sri Lanka’s dairy industry is revealed by the Parliamentary Committee on Public Accounts (COPA), indicating the closure of around 14,000 small-scale farms and a sharp decline in milk production. The COPA suggests that the destruction of grasslands and land-related issues may have played a more significant role in this crisis. The cattle-rearing populations in districts like Ampara demonstrate the conversion of grasslands to other government-funded activities, a concerning trend. Instead, the government should encourage cattle-rearing farmers in districts like Ampara to increase their livestock and seek support for acquiring quality cows from abroad (e.g., India, Bangladesh), considering the unsuitability of European cows for the Sri Lankan climate.
The lack of reliable data on this sector is a persistent issue, highlighted by the death of 104 Australian goats imported for breeding, raising concerns about the suitability of European species to Sri Lanka. COPA emphasizes the importance of the Department of Animal Production and Health maintaining accurate and precise data on the industry. Such data is crucial for understanding the root causes of the crisis and formulating effective policy responses.
The Minister stresses the importance of implementing the Artificial Insemination Programme and formulating a National Policy on milk production to address industry challenges. Frustratingly, there is criticism of the government’s lack of a proper plan for the country’s dairy industry.
In the estate sector, difficulties arise from the prohibition of cattle rearing, with estate managers discouraging wage workers from raising cows. This discouragement occurs despite the potential for extra income and a valuable source of protein for their children. This dynamic complicates the factors contributing to child malnutrition in the region.
Sri Lanka has witnessed a notable surge in milk consumption, becoming a common practice among individuals of all ages. This trend sets the stage for exploring the nation’s journey toward dairy sustainability amid the growing challenges of food insecurity.
One pivotal initiative in this pursuit was the implementation of the Sri Lanka Dairy Development Project Phase I in 2012/2013. This strategic move resulted in the importation of 2,000 European-type high-yielding cattle, strategically placed in three upcountry farms: Bopaththalawa, Dayagama, and Manikpalama – all of which are currently managed successfully, as detailed on the NLDB website. Building on this success, an additional 2,500 dairy cattle were imported from Australia in 2015, finding a home at the Ridiyagama farm in the southern province.
However, this ambitious project faced challenges, as revealed by a report by Yoshita Perera in July 2020. The proprietor of Lammermoor Estate in Maskeliya, Amal Suriyage, expressed concerns about the imported cattle, citing poor conditions and the spread of Bovine Viral Diarrhoea (BVD). This setback underscored the complexities in ensuring the health and success of such large-scale initiatives.
The Ridiyagama farm, initially established in 1938 by the Department of Agriculture, underwent a series of transitions in management. Despite an efficient start under the Department of Agriculture, a decline in productivity occurred after its transfer to the Department of Animal Production & Health in 1977. Neglect further hampered operations, leading to a significant drop in curd production by 1992. Recognizing the farm’s potential, the NLDB took over in 1992.
In 2015, the Ridiyagama farm underwent a transformative process to become a modern dairy facility. The importation of 2,500 European-type dairy cattle, including breeds like Jersey x Frisian and pure jersey, aligned with the government’s policy to achieve self-sufficiency in milk production. This endeavour involved comprehensive infrastructure upgrades, implementing an intensive dairy management system, and developing 662 hectares of pasture and fodder lands to meet the needs of the imported animals and their offspring.
Following the importation of 2,500 cattle, the Ridiyagama farm emerged as the largest dairy farm in Sri Lanka, with an anticipated annual milk production of approximately 10.0 million litres starting in 2016. The project also aimed to contribute around 600-700 heifer calves to the public annually. After completing phases I & II of the Sri Lanka Dairy Development Project, NLDB’s total annual milk production surged to 14.0 million litres by the end of 2018, marking a significant increase from 3.0 million litres.
As of 2018, NLDB’s overall contribution to national milk production stands at approximately 4%, highlighting the success of their endeavours. The NLDB manages 31 integrated farms, where livestock and coconut plantations are harmoniously maintained, emphasizing their commitment to sustainable agriculture and dairy production.
This ongoing development showcases Sri Lanka’s dedication to overcoming food insecurity challenges by investing in robust dairy development projects, paving the way for a more self-reliant and resilient dairy industry despite the hurdles faced along the way.
Compounding the challenges faced by Sri Lanka is the global food crisis. The interconnected nature of the global economy means that disruptions elsewhere have a cascading effect, exacerbating the situation in Sri Lanka. The wave of upheaval in international markets has further constrained the availability of certain food products and heightened their prices.
As Sri Lanka navigates through this macroeconomic crisis, the issue of food insecurity and malnutrition looms large. Urgent and coordinated efforts are needed to address the root causes of the crisis, revitalize the agricultural sector, and ensure that essential food items are accessible to all. The collaboration of government, civil society, and international partners will play a crucial role in mitigating the impact on food security and paving the way for a more resilient and sustainable future.
The re-introduction of cattle rearing in the estate sector is proposed as a long-term measure to address the malnutrition issue among estate children. This comprehensive plan involves both short-term and long-term strategies.
Long-term Measures:Allocation of Land for Cattle Rearing: Families in the estates should be allocated land for cattle rearing. This step aims to provide a sustainable source of nutrition for the community.
Training in Modern Methods:Workers involved in cattle rearing should receive training in modern and efficient methods. This ensures that cattle re-introducing is a means of sustenance and a productive and sustainable venture.
Importation of Asian Cattle Brands: Instead of importing European cows, it is suggested to import good-quality Asian cattle from countries like India and Bangladesh. This aligns with the local conditions and promotes the use of breeds that are well-suited for the environment.
Provision of Grasslands:Cattle rearing districts should have ample grasslands for grazing. This ensures that the cattle have access to natural and nutritious food sources.
Establishment of Milk Board-like Institution: The proposal includes the establishment of an institution similar to the old Milk Board. This institution can oversee the management and regulation of fresh milk production. MILCO (Pvt) Ltd should expand its kiosks to more urban centres and also in the estate sector communities.
Short-term Measures:Nutrition Packages for Children and Pregnant Women: As a short-term measure, all children under five and pregnant women should be provided with food and nutrition packages. This addresses the immediate nutritional needs of vulnerable groups.
Nutrition Packages for Workers: Estate management in the respective districts should provide workers with a comprehensive package of nutritious foods. This ensures that the workforce remains healthy and productive.
Installation of Fresh Milk Booths:Fresh milk booths should be installed in urban areas to popularize fresh milk consumption. This initiative promotes a healthy diet and creates market demand for dairy products.
In conclusion, the proposed plan combines short-term relief measures with a sustainable long-term strategy to tackle community malnutrition. It emphasizes the importance of cattle rearing, proper training, and establishing support institutions for effective implementation.
Features
Counting cats, naming giants: Inside the unofficial science redefining Sri Lanka’s Leopards and Tuskers
For decades, Sri Lanka’s leopard numbers have been debated, estimated, and contested, often based on assumptions few outside academic circles ever questioned.
One of the most fundamental was that a leopard’s spots never change. That belief, long accepted as scientific fact, began to unravel not in a laboratory or lecture hall, but through thousands of photographs taken patiently in the wilds of Yala. At the centre of that quiet disruption stands Milinda Wattegedara.
Sri Lanka’s wilderness has always inspired photographers. Far fewer, however, have transformed photography into a data-driven challenge to established conservation science. Wattegedara—an MBA graduate by training and a wildlife researcher by pursuit—has done precisely that, building one of the most comprehensive independent identification databases of leopards and tuskers in the country.
“I consider myself privileged to have been born and raised in Sri Lanka,” Wattegedara says. “This island is extraordinary in its biodiversity. But admiration alone doesn’t protect wildlife. Accuracy does.”
Raised in Kandy, and educated at Kingswood College, where he captained cricket teams, up to the First XI, Wattegedara’s early years were shaped by discipline and long hours of practice—traits that would later define his approach to field research.
Though his formal education culminated in a Master’s degree in Business Administration from Cardiff Metropolitan University, his professional life gradually shifted toward Sri Lanka’s forests, grasslands, and coastal fringes.
From childhood, two species held his attention: the Sri Lankan leopard and the Asian elephant tusker. Both are icons. Both are elusive. And both, he argues, have been inadequately understood.
His response was methodical. Using high-resolution photography, Wattegedara began documenting individual animals, focusing on repeat sightings, behavioural traits, territorial ranges, and physical markers.
This effort formalised into two platforms—Yala Leopard Diary and Wild Tuskers of Sri Lanka—which function today as tightly moderated research communities rather than casual social media pages.
“My goal was never popularity,” he explains. “It was reliability. Every identification had to stand scrutiny.”
The results are difficult to dismiss. Through collaborative verification and long-term monitoring, his teams have identified over 200 individual leopards across Yala and Kumana National Parks and 280 tuskers across Sri Lanka.
Each animal—whether Jessica YF52 patrolling Mahaseelawa beach or Mahasen T037, the longest tusker bearer recorded in the wild—is catalogued with photographic evidence and movement history.
It was within this growing body of data that a critical inconsistency emerged.
“As injuries accumulated over time, we noticed subtle but consistent changes in rosette and spot patterns,” Wattegedara says. “This directly contradicted the assumption that these markings remain unchanged for life.”
That observation, later corroborated through structured analysis, had serious implications. If leopards were being identified using a limited set of spot references, population estimates risked duplication and inflation.
The findings led to the development of the Multipoint Leopard Identification Method, now internationally published, which uses multiple reference points rather than fixed pattern assumptions. “This wasn’t about academic debate,” Wattegedara notes. “It was about ensuring we weren’t miscounting an endangered species.”
The implications extend beyond Sri Lanka. Overestimated populations can lead to reduced protection, misplaced policy decisions, and weakened conservation urgency.
Yet much of this work has occurred outside formal state institutions.
“There’s a misconception that meaningful research only comes from official channels,” Wattegedara says. “But conservation gaps don’t wait for bureaucracy.”
That philosophy informed his role as co-founder of the Yala Leopard Centre, the world’s first facility dedicated solely to leopard education and identification. The Centre serves as a bridge between researchers, wildlife enthusiasts, and the general public, offering access to verified knowledge rather than speculation.
In a further step toward transparency, Artificial Intelligence has been introduced for automatic leopard identification, freely accessible via the Centre and the Yala Leopard Diary website. “Technology allows consistency,” he explains. “And consistency is everything in long-term studies.”
His work with tuskers mirrors the same precision. From Minneriya to Galgamuwa, Udawalawe to Kala Wewa, Wattegedara has documented generations of bull elephants—Arjuna T008, Kawanthissa T075, Aravinda T112—not merely as photographic subjects, but as individuals with lineage, temperament, and territory.
This depth of observation has also earned him recognition in wildlife photography, including top honours from the Photographic Society of Sri Lanka and accolades from Sanctuary Asia’s Call of the Wild. Still, he is quick to downplay awards.
“Photographs are only valuable if they contribute to understanding,” he says.
Today, Wattegedara’s co-authored identification guides on Yala leopards and Kala Wewa tuskers are increasingly referenced by researchers and field naturalists alike. His work challenges a long-standing divide between citizen science and formal research.
“Wildlife doesn’t care who publishes first,” he reflects. “It only responds to how accurately we observe it.”
In an era when Sri Lanka’s protected areas face mounting pressure—from tourism, infrastructure, and climate stress—the question of who counts wildlife, and how, has never been more urgent.
By insisting on precision, patience, and proof, Milinda Wattegedara has quietly reframed that conversation—one leopard, one tusker, and one verified photograph at a time.
By Ifham Nizam ✍️
Features
AI in Schools: Preparing the Nation for the Next Technological Leap
This summary document is based on an exemplary webinar conducted by the Bandaranaike Academy for Leadership & Public Policy ((https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqZGjlaMC08). I participated in the session, which featured multiple speakers with exceptional knowledge and experience who discussed various aspects of incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) into the education system and other sectors.
There was strong consensus that this issue must be addressed early, before the nation becomes vulnerable to external actors seeking to exploit AI for their own advantage. Given her educational background, the Education Minister—and the Prime Minister—are likely to be fully aware of this need. This article is intended to support ongoing efforts in educational reform, including the introduction of AI education in schools for those institutions willing to adopt it.
Artificial intelligence is no longer a futuristic concept. Today, it processes vast amounts of global data and makes calculated decisions, often to the benefit of its creators. However, most users remain unaware of the information AI gathers or the extent of its influence on decision-making. Experts warn that without informed and responsible use, nations risk becoming increasingly vulnerable to external forces that may exploit AI.
The Need for Immediate Action
AI is evolving rapidly, leaving traditional educational models struggling to keep pace. By the time new curricula are finalised, they risk becoming outdated, leaving both students and teachers behind. Experts advocate immediate government-led initiatives, including pilot AI education programs in willing schools and nationwide teacher training.
“AI is already with us,” experts note. “We must ensure our nation is on this ‘AI bus’—unlike past technological revolutions, such as IT, microchips, and nanotechnology, which we were slow to embrace.”
Training Teachers and Students
Equipping teachers to introduce AI, at least at the secondary school level, is a crucial first step. AI can enhance creativity, summarise materials, generate lesson plans, provide personalised learning experiences, and even support administrative tasks. Our neighbouring country, India, has already begun this process.
Current data show that student use of AI far exceeds that of instructors—a gap that must be addressed to prevent misuse and educational malpractice. Specialists recommend piloting AI courses as electives, gathering feedback, and continuously refining the curriculum to prepare students for an AI-driven future.
Benefits of AI in Education
AI in schools offers numerous advantages:
· Fosters critical thinking, creativity, and problem-solving skills
· Enhances digital literacy and ethical awareness
· Bridges the digital divide by promoting equitable AI literacy
· Supports interdisciplinary learning in medicine, climate science, and linguistics
· Provides personalised feedback and learning experiences
· Assists students with disabilities through adaptive technologies like text-to-speech and visual recognition
AI can also automate administrative tasks, freeing teachers to focus on student engagement and social-emotional development—a key factor in academic success.
Risks and Challenges
Despite its potential, AI presents challenges:
· Data privacy concerns and misuse of personal information
· Over-reliance on technology, reducing teacher-student interactions
· Algorithmic biases affecting educational outcomes
· Increased opportunities for academic dishonesty if assessments rely on rote memorisation
Experts emphasise understanding these risks to ensure the responsible and ethical use of AI.
Global and Local Perspectives
In India, the Central Board of Secondary Education plans to introduce AI and computational thinking from Grades 3 to 12 by 2026. Sri Lanka faces a similar challenge. Many university students and academics already rely on AI, highlighting the urgent need for a structured yet rapidly evolving national curriculum that incorporates AI responsibly.
The Way Forward
Experts urge swift action:
· Launch pilot programs in select schools immediately.
· Provide teacher training and seed funding to participating educational institutions.
· Engage universities to develop short AI and innovation training programs.
“Waiting for others to lead risks leaving us behind,” experts warn. “It’s time to embrace AI thoughtfully, responsibly, and inclusively—ensuring the whole nation benefits from its opportunities.”
As AI reshapes our world, introducing it in schools is not merely an educational initiative—it is a national imperative.
BY Chula Goonasekera ✍️
on behalf of LEADS forum admin@srilankaleads.com
Features
The Paradox of Trump Power: Contested Authoritarian at Home, Uncontested Bully Abroad
The Trump paradox is easily explained at one level. The US President unleashes American superpower and tariff power abroad with impunity and without contestation. But he cannot exercise unconstitutional executive power including tariff power without checks and challenges within America. No American President after World War II has exercised his authority overseas so brazenly and without any congressional referral as Donald Trump is getting accustomed to doing now. And no American President in history has benefited from a pliant Congress and an equally pliant Supreme Court as has Donald Trump in his second term as president.
Yet he is not having his way in his own country the way he is bullying around the world. People are out on the streets protesting against the wannabe king. This week’s killing of 37 year old Renee Good by immigration agents in Minneapolis has brought the City to its edge five years after the police killing of George Floyd. The lower courts are checking the president relentlessly in spite of the Supreme Court, if not in defiance of it. There are cracks in the Trump’s MAGA world, disillusioned by his neglect of the economy and his costly distractions overseas. His ratings are slowly but surely falling. And in an electoral harbinger, New York has elected as its new mayor, Zoran Mamdani – a wholesale antithesis of Donald Trump you can ever find.
Outside America it is a different picture. The world is too divided and too cautious to stand up to Trump as he recklessly dismantles the very world order that his predecessors have been assiduously imposing on the world for nearly a hundred years. A few recent events dramatically illustrate the Trump paradox – his constraints at home and his freewheeling abroad.
Restive America
Two days before Christmas, the US Supreme Court delivered a rare rebuke to the Trump Administration. After a host of rulings that favoured Trump by putting on hold, without full hearing, lower court strictures against the Administration, the Supreme Court by a 6-3 majority decided to leave in place a Federal Court ruling that barred Trump from deploying National Guard troops in Chicago. Trump quietly raised the white flag and before Christmas withdrew the federal troops he had controversially deployed in Chicago, Portland and Los Angeles – all large cities run by Democrats.
But three days after the New Year, Trump airlifted the might of the US Army to encircle Venezuela’s capital Caracas and spirit away the country’s President Nicolás Maduro, and his wife Celia Flores, all the way to New York to stand trial in an American Court. What is not permissible in any American City was carried out with absolute impunity in a foreign capital. It turns out the Administration has no plan for Venezuela after taking out Maduro, other than Trump’s cavalier assertion, “We’re going to run it, essentially.” Essentially, the Trump Administration has let Maduro’s regime without Maduro to run the country but with the US in total control of Venezuela’s oil.
Next on the brazen list is Greenland, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio who manipulated Maduro’s ouster is off to Copenhagen for discussions with the Danish government over the future of Greenland, a semi-autonomous part of Denmark. Military option is not off the table if a simple real estate purchase or a treaty arrangement were to prove infeasible or too complicated. That is the American position as it is now customarily announced from the White House podium by the Administration’s Press Secretary Karolyn Leavitt, a 28 year old Catholic woman from New Hampshire, who reportedly conducts a team prayer for divine help before appearing at the lectern to lecture.
After the Supreme Court ruling and the Venezuela adventure, the third US development relevant to my argument is the shooting and killing of a 37 year old white American woman by a US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer in Minneapolis, at 9:30 in the morning, Wednesday, January 7th. Immediately, the Administration went into pre-emptive attack mode calling the victim a “deranged leftist” and a “domestic terrorist,” and asserting that the ICE officer was acting in self-defense. That line and the description are contrary to what many people know of the victim, as well as what people saw and captured on their phones and cameras.
The victim, Renee Nicole Good, was a mother of three and a prize-winning poet who self-described herself a “poet, writer, wife and mom.” A newcomer to Minneapolis from Colorado, she was active in the community and was a designated “legal observer of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activities,” to monitor interactions between ICE agents and civilian protesters that have become the norm in large immigrant cities in America. Renee Good was at the scene in her vehicle to observe ICE operations and community protesters.
In video postings that last a matter of nine seconds, two ICE officers are seen approaching Good’s vehicle and one of them trying to open her door; a bystander is heard screaming “No” as Good is seen trying to drive away; and a third ICE officer is seen standing in front of her moving vehicle, firing twice in the direction of the driver, moving to a side and firing a third time from the side. Good’s car is seen going out of control, careening and coming to a stop on a snowbank. Yet America is being bombarded with two irreconcilable narratives – one manufactured by Trump’s Administration and the other by those at the scene and everyone opposed to the regime.
It adds to the explosiveness of the situation that Good was shot and killed not far from where George Folyd was killed, also in Minneapolis, on 25th May, 2020, choked under the knee of a heartless policeman. And within 48 hours of Good’s killing, two Americans were shot and injured by two federal immigration agents, in Portland, Oregon, on the Westcoast. Trump’s attack on immigrants and the highhanded methods used by ICE agents have become the biggest flashpoint in the political opposition to the Trump presidency. People are organizing protests in places where ICE agents are apprehending immigrants because those who are being aggressively and violently apprehended have long been neighbours, colleagues, small business owners and students in their communities.
Deportation of illegal immigrants is not something that began under Trump. It has been going on in large numbers under all recent presidents including Obama and Biden. But it has never been so cruel and vicious as it is now under Trump. He has turned it into a television spectacle and hired large number of new ICE agents who are politically prejudiced and deployed them without proper training. They raid private homes and public buildings, including schools, looking for immigrants. When faced with protesters they get into clashes rather than deescalating the situation as professional police are trained to do. There is also the fear that the Administration may want to escalate confrontations with protesters to create a pretext for declaring martial law and disrupt the midterm congressional elections in November this year.
But the momentum that Trump was enjoying when he began his second term and started imposing his executive authority, has all but vanished and all within just one year in office. By the time this piece appears in print, the Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs (expected on Friday) may be out, and if as expected the ruling goes against Trump that will be a massive body blow to the Administration. Trump will of course use a negative court ruling as the reason for all the economic woes under his presidency, but by then even more Americans would have become tired of his perpetually recycled lies and boasts.
An Obliging World
To get back to my starting argument, it is in this increasingly hostile domestic backdrop that Trump has started looking abroad to assert his power without facing any resistance. And the world is obliging. The western leaders in Europe, Canada and Australia are like the three wise monkeys who will see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil – of anything that Trump does or fails to do. Their biggest fear is about the Trump tariffs – that if they say anything critical of Trump he will magnify the tariffs against their exports to the US. That is an understandable concern and it would be interesting to see if anything will change if the US Supreme Court were to rule against Trump and reject his tariff powers.
Outside the West, and with the exception of China, there is no other country that can stand up to Trump’s bullying and erratic wielding of power. They are also not in a position to oppose Trump and face increased tariffs on their exports to the US. Putin is in his own space and appears to be assured that Trump will not hurt him for whatever reason – and there are many of them, real and speculative. The case of the Latin American countries is different as they are part of the Western Hemisphere, where Trump believes he is monarch of all he surveys.
After more than a hundred years of despising America, many communities, not just regimes, in the region seem to be warming up to Trump. The timing of Trump’s sequestering of Venezuela is coinciding with a rising right wing wave and regime change in the region. An October opinion poll showed 53% of Latin American respondents reacting positively to a then potential US intervention in Venezuela while only 18% of US respondents were in favour of intervention. While there were condemnations by Latin American left leaders, seven Latin American countries with right wing governments gave full throated support to Trump’s ouster of Maduro.
The reasons are not difficult to see. The spread of crime induced by the commerce of cocaine has become the number one concern for most Latin Americans. The socio-religious backdrop to this is the evangelisation of Christianity at the expense of the traditional Catholic Church throughout Latin America. And taking a leaf from Trump, Latin Americans have also embraced the bogey of immigration, mainly influenced by the influx of Venezuelans fleeing in large numbers to escape the horrors of the Maduro regime.
But the current changes in Latin America are not necessarily indicative of a durable ideological shift. The traditional left’s base in the subcontinent is still robust and the recent regime changes are perhaps more due to incumbency fatigue than shifts in political orientations. The left has been in power for the greater part of this century and has not been able to provide answers to the real questions that preoccupied the people – economic affordability, crime and cocaine. It has not been electorally smart for the left to ignore the basic questions of the people and focus on grand projects for the intelligentsia. Exhibit #1 is the grand constitutional project in Chile under outgoing President Gabriel Borich, but it is not the only one. More romantic than realistic, Boric’s project titillated liberal constitutionalists the world over, but was roundly rejected by Chileans.
More importantly, and sooner than later, Trump’s intervention in Venezuela and his intended takeover of the country’s oil business will produce lasting backlashes, once the initial right wing euphoria starts subsiding. Apart from the bully force of Trump’s personality, the mastermind behind the intervention in Venezuela and policy approach towards Latin America in general, is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the former Cuban American Senator from Florida and the principal leader of the group of Cuban neocons in the US. His ultimate objective is said to be achieving regime change in Cuba – apparently a psychological settling of scores on behalf Cuban Americans who have been dead set against Castro’s Cuba after the overthrow of their beloved Batista.
Mr. Rubio is American born and his parents had left Cuba years before Fidel Castro displaced Fulgencio Batista, but the family stories he apparently grew up hearing in Florida have been a large part of his self-acknowledged political makeup. Even so, Secretary Rubio could never have foreseen a situation such as an externally uncontested Trump presidency in which he would be able to play an exceptionally influential role in shaping American policy for Latin America. But as the old Burns’ poem rhymes, “The best-laid plans of men and mice often go awry.”
by Rajan Philips ✍️
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