By Manasee Weerathunga

It is no doubt that the passing away of the ceremonial tusker Nadungamuwe Raja was sorrowful news to the entire country, regardless of religions and ethnicities. It is highly unlikely that there could have been any Sri Lankan who did not love this gentle giant for his majesty and tranquility. However, the question at which everyone who loved Nadungamuwe Raja becomes divided, is on whether Nadungamuwe Raja lived a life of grandeur or a life of suffering?

Nadungamuwe Raja is best known as the ceremonial tusker, bearing the main casket of the Tooth Relic of Lord Buddha in the annual procession of Esala, in Kandy, Sri Lanka. As in ancient traditions, it is only a male tusker of remarkable physique that is eligible for bearing the casket of the Tooth Relic. It is this majesty of this beast which prompted many Sri Lankans, especially the devout Buddhists, to place Nadungamuwe Raja, up on a pedestal of sanctitude. In the eyes of devout Buddhists, Nadungamuwe Raja was not only privileged enough to bear the casket of the Tooth Relic of Lord Buddha (something which is not approachable to a layman) but also was able to gather a plethora of merit in this lifetime, for the rest of Samsara, by being in service to the Lord Buddha. However, in the eyes of animal lovers and workers for animal rights, Nadungamuwe Raja was a prisoner of culture and blind religious devoutation, having had lived a life, chained in a domestic setting with no access to the natural habitat of an elephant or its co-inhabitants.

The opulent pair of long, intersecting pair of tusks can be named as the crowning glory of Nadungamuwe Raja, not to mention that he was the tallest domestic elephant known in whole Asia. In addition to these unmistaken resplendent features of Nadungamuwe Raja, the placidity of this beast’s nature, points out some facts noteworthy about elephants. Asian elephants, the species to which Nadungamuwe Raja belongs, differ from their African elephant cousins, with respect to several features. Firstly, Asian elephants are of significantly smaller build in comparison to African elephants, which makes the height of Nadungamuwe Raja, remarkable. Secondly, unlike the African elephant, which possesses tusks in both male and female alike, tusks are a rarity found in some male Asian elephants only, ticking off another box for Nadungamuwe Raja’s exceptionality. Thirdly, domesticated African elephants are unheard of because they do not share the serene demeanor of their Asian counterparts, while Nadungamuwe Raja is only one of the many domestic Asian elephants found in several countries of Asia.

However, domestication of animals is not something which is discrete for a region of the world. The history of animal domestication spans as far as the beginning of human civilization. The pre-historic man of Stone Age was in the habit of chasing and hunting the animals they wanted to fulfill their food requirements, and then moving to a new location once he had exploited all the animals in his surrounding location. However, as the humans moved on to the farming age by growing their food in their locality and forming permanent settlements, they realized that rather than going in search of animals to hunt, holding the animals in captivity, raring them and harvesting the milk, meat and hides that they needed was an easier option. That marked the beginning of animal domestication, resulting in some animal species, such as dogs, cats and ornamental fish breeds, to become fully domesticated species by the present times. A major step in this process involved identifying animals who were passive enough to be approached, caught, and held captive and tamed. This has resulted in the evolution of most domestic animal species to have traits that would make them better suited to a domestic setting while wiping out the traits which would help them survive in the wild. For example, evolution has taken away from the dogs, the traits of aggression shown by their distant relatives, the wolves, as well as any skills of surviving in the wild by hunting and avoiding predation. Therefore, if an enthusiast of animal rights is to argue that holding a gold fish in a fish tank is a violation of its rights and that it would be better off swimming freely in a stream, it is going to be one of the most frivolous points to make because a gold fish would hardly survive in a wild stream for more than 24 hours without getting predated. That is because the ancestors of these domestic animals, running back to hundreds of generations, have not even seen a wild environment so that their genes no longer contain the traits suited for the wild.

However, we cannot say the same about Asian elephants so confidently, because elephants still do exist in the wild and therefore is not a completely domesticated animal species. While the harsher environment that African elephants inhabit has made them more aggressive and violent by their genetic makeup, Asian elephants are more approachable which has enabled many countries to domesticate Asian elephants for centuries. Therefore, a fair number of domestic Asian elephants, found in many countries, are elephants who had been born and bred in domestic settings for generations. Hence, although many activists for animals rights have been voicing out in social media platforms that Nadungamuwe Raja lived a life of suffering by being chained in a domestic setting, having been an elephant born in a domestic elephant stable in India, it is uncertain what percentage of Nadungamuwe’s Raja’s genes still retained the traits that would help him survive in the wild. Usually, several generations of inbreeding of domesticated animals result in establishment of gene combinations best suited for domestic settings and purging those suited for wild environments. Still, it is uncertain how rapidly it happens in each species. With evolutionary biologists and behavioural scientists worldwide conducting a plethora of research on the question of whether nature or nurture determines the behavioural traits of an animal, the question of whether Nadungamuwe Raja would have been happier roaming freely in the wild remains an open question, with not enough data on how much of wild traits that he retained in his genes.

Nevertheless, if we were to assume that Nadungamuwe Raja was still biologically fully capable of living in a wild environment, we should not forget that he would be living in an environment where the humans have become a major predator for elephants. Evolution being a very slow process that takes millions of years, usually the genetic makeup that currently exists in many organisms is the genetic combination that evolved to suit the environmental conditions that existed thousands of years ago. The genome of many organisms is still undergoing the process of adapting to the current environment, which has changed rapidly from what it was a few hundreds of years back. Therefore, organisms do not evolve adaptations to match the changing environmental conditions as rapidly as the environment changes. The same is true for elephants because their genetic makeup has not evolved to keep up with the rapidly changing environment and hence, lack the adaptations to survive the threats posed by their greatest predator of the current world, the human. Therefore, it is fairly agreeable if someone says that Nadungamuwe Raja could have been poached long ago for his magnificent pair of tusks or could have been killed by ‘hakka patas’ traps if it had not lived in the seclusion of a domestic environment. However, it should be noted that Nadungamuwe Raja lived the average lifespan of an Asian elephant. The most common natural cause of death for wild elephants is a mechanical cause resulting from the loss of teeth. Elephants usually have four sets of teeth during their course of life and once the last set of teeth is lost, elephants die a slow and painful death due to the inability to feed and nourish themselves. It is noteworthy that the owners of Nadungamuwe Raja took the utmost effort to preserve the last set of teeth of the elephant so that his lifespan could be prolonged, by meticulously managing the elephant’s diet and behaviour. However, whether living in a natural environment and choosing his own diet from natural sources could have prolonged the lifespan of the elephant is contentious.

The increasing rarity of tusks as sumptuous as Nadungamuwe Raja’s in Asian elephants itself signals an evolutionary trend of elephants towards adaptation to the hostility created in wild environments by humans. It is the general trend of evolution to get rid of any traits that would pose a threat to the survival and fitness of any organism. By evolution, tusks serve the purpose of attracting female mates to male elephants, while helping males with combat with other males for territory and mates as well as obtaining food. With humans as a predator of elephants in wild environments, tusks have unfortunately become the worst nightmare for the survival of elephants in the wild. It is highly probable that the tusks of Nadungamuwe Raja could have brought the same unfortunate fate on him if he had lived in the wild. Even with living a domesticated life, the tusks of Nadungamuwe Raja had been too heavy for his head to bear towards the latter part of his life, although the situation had been ameliorated by his owners by arranging a sleeping place for the elephant where he could rest his head above his body. However, it is doubtful whether the tusks of Nadungamuwe Raja would have grown to that length and weight if it had lived in the wild. If a wild elephant had tusks as long and big as that, it goes without saying that it would pose a hinderance and a danger to the movement of the animal in dense vegetation, which are the common habitats of Asian elephants. Therefore, wild elephants have the habit of wearing off their tusks by rubbing them against tree branches, while the tusks of wild elephants are subjected to breakage during combats between males. For example, Gemunu, who is a well-known tusker inhabiting the Yala National Park of Sri Lanka, had only one tusk until recently, with the other being broken off during a dual. The remaining tusk was also broken off a couple of years earlier, during a dual with Nandimitra, another male elephant of the Yala National Park. Usually, once a male elephant loses his tusks in a combat, it either dies of the wounds of the combat or lives a quiet and short life restricted of mates or food of the territory, without the advantage of tusks. Therefore, another open question remains of whether Nadungamuwe Raja would have had such a luxurious pair of tusks until the end of his lifetime, had he lived in a wild environment.

Considering all these whether Nadungamuwe Raja was a prisoner of culture or not remains a question to be answered based on each person’s own morals and judgment. But, while dividing into sides and splitting hairs to prove whether Nadungamuwe Raja lived a life of a prisoner or that of royalty, there is a fact that many forget. While limiting the discussions about Nadungamuwe Raja to decorating him as an icon of Sri Lankan culture or fighting for his rights for a free life, we forget that not only Nadungamuwe Raja but all other domestic elephants of Sri Lanka which are treated with high esteem can serve a bigger role as ambassadors of environmental conservation. Nadungamuwe Raja and all other celebrated domestic elephants of Sri Lanka such as Kataragama Wasana, Indi Raja, Miyan Raja etc. fit perfectly well to the category of Flagship Species. The concept of Flagship Species introduced by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) includes organisms having an aesthetic importance while representing a certain habitat, issue, or environmental cause. The objective of this concept is by conserving and drawing public attention to these animals which are of aesthetic attraction, the entire habitat they represent will be conserved and the environmental issue that they are involved in would be resolved. The giant panda endemic to China is an ideal example of a flagship species being a successful ambassador in resolving a conservation issue. With the giant panda being categorized as an endangered species by the IUCN in the 1980s, a massive campaign was launched to save China’s beloved national icon. This involved not only in-situ conservation efforts such as setting up nature reserve areas habitable for pandas, but also numerous ex-situ conservation techniques such as breeding pandas in captivity and propagating public interest and awareness on these cute creatures with the use of domesticated pandas held in captivity. These pandas did their job as environmental ambassadors so perfectly that by 2016, IUCN declared that giant pandas are no longer endangered but just vulnerable.

Right now, the number of Sri Lankans who worship Nadungamuwe Raja, holding him at a highly revered position is countless. Similarly, the number of Sri Lankans who fight for animal rights pointing out that Nadungamuwe Raja spent a torturous, miserable life is also fairly high. Amidst all that clamour, the number of elephants killed each year by poachers or by ‘hakka patas’ traps, the number of elephants shot by villagers for encroaching into cultivated lands, the number elephants hit by trains, plus the number of human lives lost each year by wild elephant attacks remain escalating. This disturbing trend signals to us that right now the most serious issue regarding elephants in Sri Lanka is not the debate of whether domestic elephants are cultural icons or prisoners of culture, but the human-elephant conflict which has gone unresolved, yet escalating to an extremely unfortunate level, for the past years. Wild elephants cannot be blamed for the circumstances considering the plight they are in with the construction of motorways fragmenting natural habitats of elephants and blocking their passes, human encroachment into natural habitats limiting the availability of food, water and space for the elephants plus poaching for ivory. On the other hand, the retaliation by humans to wild elephants is also fair considering the threat to property and lives it poses and the economic and emotional turmoil it costs when living in an area of wild elephant threat. That is why Nadungamuwe Raja and his fellow domestic elephants, should be viewed as ambassadors of environmental conservation rather than either icons or prisoners of culture. While thousands of people have been coming to pay their last respects to Nadungamuwe Raja with heavy hearts, while the authorities are taking steps to preserve Nadungamuwe Raja as a national treasure, while Nadungamuwe Raja’s predecessor tusker Raja has a museum dedicated all to himself and preserved and displayed as a national treasure, and while animal rights activists are launching heated social media campaigns to free the domestic elephants from their chains, there are numerous elephants in the island who portray major conservation issues. The wild elephant Natta Kota who roams the premises of tourist hotels bordering the Yala national park, has become a scavenger on garbage of the hotels which lure him to be a tourist attraction. The elephants inhabiting the forests bordering motorways of areas such as Habarana and Buttala had fallen to the plight of mafia gangsters who don’t let vehicles pass unless they are given the ransom of food. The elephants scavenging on garbage dumps of Tissamaharama have fallen to the plight of homeless beggars, picking through trash to fill their stomachs.

It goes without saying that Nadungamuwe Raja is a national treasure because a tusker of that stature and physique is indeed an asset to any country’s natural resource chest. But the reverence shown towards this animal needs to be extended to countless other elephants in Sri Lanka who are at the risk of getting poached for ivory, or killed by traps. As good as it is that Nadungamuwe Raja’s body be preserved as a national treasure as that of Raja, by housing it in a museum as a mere icon of cultural importance, the natural homes of the wild elephants of Sri Lanka needs to be preserved as well, as elephants are assets of Sri Lanka. The activists and enthusiasts of animal rights who voice out protests on the chained life that Nadungamuwe Raja led, should extend their fighting towards winning freedom for the numerous unnamed wild elephants who cannot roam wherever they wish in their native habitats and eat as much natural food as they like. Therefore, it is high time that the authorities start hailing Nandungamuwe Raja as an icon of conservational importance, rather than as a mere national treasure of cultural importance while the worshippers of Nandungamuwe Raja and the fighters for Nandungamuwe Raja’s animal rights start portraying him as an ambassador of environmental conservation rather than an ambassador of culture or a prisoner of culture.

(The writer is a PhD Student in Evolutionary Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, US. She thanks Gihan Athapaththu, former Naturalist at Jetwing Yala, currently Master’s student at Jeju National University, South Korea, for his contribution to this article.)

by Gnana Moonesinghe

The book “Regional Investment Pioneers in South Asia” by Sanjay Kathuria, Ravindran Yatawara and Xiao’ou zhu published by South Asia Development Forum appears to me to be an appropriate touch point in planning corrections to Sri Lanka’s economic development strategy.

The chapter on the “State of Play in South Asia” is particularly relevant to us as it refers to what needs to be considered to attract foreign investment. This chapter deals with subjects such as intra-regional investment and knowledge connectivity and the reduction in tariffs to encourage trade and investments.

Knowledge transfers are particularly useful to us as it enables better decision making when investing. It informs the reader on production processes, managerial and organizational practices, logistics and exports. Information regarding these features properly implemented will be more than sufficient to direct the Sri Lankan economy on the path to development.Profile of Sri Lanka’s current economic problemA drop in foreign currency reserves has been a significant indicator of the economic problem faced by Sri Lanka. our foreign currency reserves dropped to US$ 1.6 bn in Nov. 2021 triggering fears of possible debt default. To date SL has not defaulted in debt repayment.

This situation is only partly due to the pandemic which caused a sharp drop in tourism earnings and the decline in remittances from the Middle East workers. The pandemic prevented the entry of tourists into Sri Lanka while remittances from those employed in the Middle East that were earlier converted through the banks were diverted to the black market for a better exchange rate. Thus an alternative market had been revived bypassing the banking system.

The above factors made it difficult for the government to maintain the nation’s economic equilibrium. Another reason among many others is overloading the public service with passengers not contributing to economic productivity but paid from public coffers.

The heavy debt service obligations due to short term high cost borrowings and unproductive investments of the recent past like the Hambantota stadium are some of the projects that added to the country’s debt service obligations. Additionally the Central Bank’s insistence in keeping the US $ pegged to an artificial rate has diverted funds from the banks to the unofficial market as illustrated by the case of foreign worker remittances.

The import controls imposed to curb the outflow of foreign exchange have also impacted on export production as well as having a damaging effect on the domestic markets. When imposing import controls, care must be taken to see that it is is better deviced to curtail non essential imports without hurting intermediate and capital goods imports essential specially for the export manufacturing sector.

That would be attractive to the foreign investors who will hopefully enter export manufacturing industries and help develop the economy.

Special emphasis should be placed on the need to review the working of our democratic practices. Their decline can frighten away investor from coming here. Politicians have in recent years held sway over all aspects of the management of the country and the credibility of ‘one country, one law’ for all has eroded. It is frightening that the belief that some are above the law is gaining credence and this has implications for foreign investment.

The Central Bank resorted to uninhibited money creation causing high inflation which resulted in untold misery for the people. This has also contributed to the malfunctioning of society which included the unavailability of jobs as well as the loss of existing jobs. Unemployment in turn has led to suffering without food, medicines, adequate schooling etc. This in the midst of excessive money in the hands of the corrupt few who were able to resort to corrupt practices due to a lack of transparency in the conduct of government business. All this is a deterrent to investment.

In addition to these factors the practice of pluralism as a democratic concept has receded in importance. “Sinhala only” in effective usage since 1956 introduced a division in society where the Sinhala majority considering themselves superior to the rest of the population. Eventually this resulted in the build up of animosities among the different communities that eventually led to the 30-year war for the conduct of which resources and energy that would have otherwise been invested in development was utilized. This further constricted the economy.

It is clear that the entire economy must be restructured to overcome te negatives encountered in the recent past. More attention must be paid to agriculture to make the sector sufficiently attractive for investments in export agriculture. Long term interests should be given precedence over ad hoc measures such as the ban on fertilizer imports at great cost to domestic agriculture.

The rubber industry need to be strengthened with greater value addition utilizing domestic raw material. The development of the dairy sector must be accelerated as milk production and processing have not grown as fast as they should have. This is vital for the import substitution effort as well as the nutritional needs of the people.

Today the value of the rupee against the dollar has dropped to a dangerously low level and the rupee was recently devalued to Rs. 230 to the USD after a futile effort of artificially protecting it against market forces. The govt has imposed power cuts, and the people are facing gas, fuel and food shortages. Due to the forex crisis there is inability to even unload essentials already in port.

Threat of trade union protests are on the rise; so is the threat of other civil commotions that will create social dislocation in the country. Foreign exchange reserves are down to dangerously low levels and this not only endangers essential imports but also has implications for the development effort. The economic development of the country has not been pursued in accordance with a well thought plan in recent decades. Several macro economic weaknesses have been compounded by the adverse effects of COVID -19. Restructuring the economy has become urgent to set right the many things that have already gone wrong with no effective corrective measures in sight.

by Rajan Philips

For the people, it is the worst of times. Never before has life in Sri Lanka become so unbearable, so suddenly, and for so many. Never before, as well, has there been a Sri Lankan government so incompetent, so confused and so unfocussed as the present one. Leading by example, the President has publicly and cavalierly disclaimed responsibility for any and all that is going on. When Peradeniya university student Weerasuriya was killed on campus by police shooting, on November 12, 1976, Dr. Colvin R de Silva pointed the accusing finger at then Prime Minister & Defense Minister, Mrs. Bandaranaike.

As Minister of Defence in charge of Police, “She is responsible, she is answerable,” the old Marxist (and a great Criminal Defense Lawyer) thundered in banner headlines. That was the beginning of the end of the last SLFP government. In the Commonwealth parliamentary tradition, Ministers used to resign over budget leaks and train accidents. Now, Sri Lanka’s Head of State doubling as Head of Government, with added powers under an ad hominem amendment, says he is not responsible for anything.

Taking responsibility, as many of us were taught at home and in school, and have tried to live by since, means not only accounting for what has gone wrong but also taking action to make things right. Forget what has gone wrong. Feel the people’s pain, man! And say what wilt thou do to at least to ease their pain, let alone eradicate it? If that is not executive responsibility, what is? If a government cannot do this, what is it there for? The President has fired two ministers and has shuffled and added more. A new Economic Council of the same old, uninspiring men has been announced. An All-Party Conference is also being touted. What else is new? What difference are they going to make?

The usual kite about a National Government has also been flown. But unusually with Ranil Wickremesinghe as PM and Basil Rajapaksa (RW’s onetime sidekick) continuing as Finance Minister. Even the TNA will apparently accept ministers at India’s bidding. Mr. Wickremesinghe has denied the suggestions, but nothing heard yet from the TNA. Perhaps a website kite merits no denial. But there is a palpable sense of India’s looming presence in more ways and in more places than before within the crumbling Rajapaksa political enterprise. To go or not to go to the IMF is still the burning question. Mr. Wickremasinghe is all for an all-party conference and a collective 12-year plan to be fathered by everybody. Give the man some credit. He at least tries to look for the next step for safe landing. Everyone else in parliament is floating in la-la land. The government is missing in action.

Skewed Parallels

When President Rajapaksa fired two of his more loquacious ministers, Wimal Weerawansa and Udaya Gammanpila, skewed parallels were drawn between their dismissals and the dismissals of LSSP Ministers from the United Front government by Prime Minister Bandaranaike in 1975. Basil Rajapaksa was touted as the new Felix Dias, although no one has called him ‘Satan’, yet; only “ugly American!”. Wimal Weerawansa was compared to NM Perera and Gammanpila, of all people, to Colvin R de Silva! The absurdity of these comparisons would have been self-evident for the same pundits did not take the next step of comparing Gotabaya to Mrs. Bandaranaike. The absurd circle would have been completed if someone had compared Maithripala Sirisena to JR Jayewardene as the political beneficiary in waiting, the way JRJ benefited after 1975 with a landslide in 1977.

Sirisena reportedly attended the Thalawathugoda Grand Monarch Hotel meeting where Weerawansa and Gammanpila unveiled their 42-page road map “to place the country on the correct path” and steer it away from Basil’s evil path, but not necessarily away from Cabraal’s whatever path. There were talks about making Sirisena the leader of a new group of SLFP and non-SLFP dissidents who might make up about 25 to 30 MPs in parliament. Pundits, who seem to have gotten weary of Sajith Premadasa, started seeing in Sirisena a potential electrode for a new polarization in parliament, comprising not only SLFP MPs and MPs from the dissenting 11 parties within the government, but also young UNP Turks who are opposed to the electorally toxic friends and followers of Ranil Wickremesinghe.

The desired upshot is to make Maithripala Sirisena a common presidential candidate again. But as a new Yahapalana-Version.2, an SLFP-led outfit that the self-proclaimed centre-left progressives can support. But Maithripala Sirisena may be having his own plans, and even he may not have made up his mind yet about what they are. Within days of the Grand Monarch Hotel (what a republican name!) meeting, Sirisena led his SLFP MPs to a meeting with the President, the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance (the ruling family, if you will) and presented the SLFP’s 15-point plan apparently to rescue the government, and may be the economy. The common candidacy project can wait.

This is the current state of politics in Sri Lanka which can only be described as permutating or scrambling politics, where parliamentarians are constantly juggling to form new groups and alliances based on personal political gains and not based on any broader principles or political programs. That is why drawing sweeping parallels to 1975, 1977 or 1964, or any other period before 2005 (why 2005, is a separate subject on its own), would be analytically silly and politically pointless.

For all its infirmities, politics before 2005 was generally organized around political leadership and political parties that drew from a combination of charismas, political loyalties, communal passions, class interests and electoral calculations, but always predicated on competing political visions and programs. Of course, there were personal interests and motivations, but they were generally pursued through and in subordination to broader political goals and programs. At any given time, the people and the electorate were able to see seriously contending alternatives which periodically alternated between government and opposition. It may have been musical chairs politics, but the music was tolerable and the chairs were not broken. There is no need for metaphors to describe the current mess.

The IMF and India

The governance and the administration of the country are in a terrible mess. This has a great deal more to do with than Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s incompetence or Maithripala Sirisena’s opportunism. There is no easy way out. There is no prospect for a charismatic saviour. Local charisma is in short supply and is far scarcer than foreign exchange. A change in government by itself can accomplish nothing unless the executive and parliament start acting purposefully and more constructively. The President has shown his limitations, so there is not much point in badgering him to do anything big, except ensuring that he does not get advised to do something crazy, such as ringing in a worthless new constitution.

The challenge rests with parliament to rise collectively above the limitations and lunacies of its individual MPs. There is no room for too many distractions and the only priority now is to find a balance between paying back our debts and keeping the people fed. If defaulting on debt is the only way to avoid mass starvation, so be it. But it has to be done in an honest and responsible way and not in the way the country’s finances have been managed from November 2019. Looked at it practically, the government has no option but to seek assistance from the IMF. Those of us who are familiar with the debates about the IMF in the 1970s find the current controversy contrived and surreal. The world is at a different place now, so is the IMF, and so is Sri Lanka. Those who shout from roof tops against the IMF must tell others what other immediate-term alternative that they are seeing through their ideological telescopes.

It would be far better to have the decision to seek IMF’s help emanate from Sri Lanka’s parliament than to have the government dictated to by others to go to the IMF or somewhere else. There is no question that the government is coming under pressure from various quarters, for different reasons and to different extents. Foreign debts are not the government’s only problem. The UNHRC’s scope of inquiry into Sri Lanka has been dramatically expanded by the intervention of Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith in the current session in Geneva. Even individual Sri Lankan citizens have started petitioning Geneva against the government. The new known unknown is the alleged new phase in the relationship between New Delhi and Colombo, which is really between the Modi government and the Rajapaksa brothers.

It may be that the government, rather Sri Lanka’s ruling family, may have realized that going along with India is the best way to protect their stay in power and all the interests that go with it. China’s support is one-dimensional – loans, swaps and more loans. Beijing cannot protect the government and the family from human rights policing and the new threat of sweeping international sanctions that Vladimir Putin has recklessly brought upon himself, his oligarchs and other minions elsewhere. If the government and the ruling family do decide to seek India’s help to bail themselves out, what will India ask for in return?

The Foreign Minister has already sent signals about economic integration between the two countries. Sri Lanka’s High Commissioner in India, Milinda Moragoda, a veritable Man for all Seasons for successive Sri Lankan leaders, appears to be making moves for a new civilizational integration to fraternalize Modi’s Hindutva nationalism and Sri Lanka’s Buddhist nationalism. India would seem to be sending signals of its own. At the UNHRC, India has given qualified support to Sri Lanka emphasizing both human rights and political devolution. India is also said to have made IMF’s assistance a pre-condition for India’s continuing financial support.

The intriguing new gossip is that India is also behind moves to form a National Government in Sri Lanka with Gotabaya Rajapaksa as President and Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister. Even though Wickremesinghe has denied this, it is quite possible that the ‘thought’ may have been conceived without anyone consulting him. At the moment the gossip is nothing more than juicy grist for political mouths. Nonetheless, there are powerful ironies in this speculative gossip. If India is really keen about making Ranil Wickremesinghe Prime Minister, that would make amends for India’s treachery against him in 2003-04 when Delhi gave the nod to President Kumaratunga to dismiss Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister. The bigger irony is that after playing hide and seek with India for nearly 20 years, the Rajapaksa brothers would now seem ready to turn to India for help for their own survival. Sri Lanka might be on the verge of a new musical chairs politics.