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Fitch downgrades Sri Lanka’s long-term foreign-currency IDR to ‘CC’

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Fitch Ratings has downgraded Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CC’, from ‘CCC’. Fitch typically does not assign Outlooks or apply modifiers for sovereigns with a rating of ‘CCC’ or below.

A number of rating actions are as follows.

The downgrade reflects our view of an increased probability of a default event in coming months in light of Sri Lanka’s worsening external liquidity position, underscored by a drop in foreign-exchange reserves set against high external debt payments and limited financing inflows. The severity of financial stress is illustrated by elevated government-bond yields and downward pressure on the currency.

We have affirmed the Long-Term Local-Currency IDR at ‘CCC’, as authorities have continued access to domestic financing, despite high and still-rising government debt and an elevated debt service burden.

Sri Lanka’s foreign-exchange reserves have declined much faster than we expected at our last review, owing to a combination of a higher import bill and foreign-currency intervention by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. Foreign exchange reserves have declined by about USD2 billion since August, falling to USD1.6 billion at end-November, equivalent to less than one month of current external payments (CXP). This represents a drop in foreign-currency reserves of about USD 4 billion since end-2020.

We believe it will be difficult for the government to meet its external debt obligations in 2022 and 2023 in the absence of new external financing sources. Obligations include two international sovereign bonds of USD500 million due in January 2022 and USD1 billion due in July 2022. The government also faces foreign-currency debt service payments, including principal and interest, of USD6.9 billion in 2022, equivalent to nearly 430% of official gross international reserves as of November 2021. Cumulative foreign-currency debt service, including interest and principal, amounts to about USD26 billion from 2022 through to 2026.

The timing and availability of external resources is unclear and may not be readily available for debt service. The central bank published a six-month roadmap in October that outlined plans to raise additional external borrowings through a number of channels, including bilateral and multilateral sources, syndicated loans and through the monetisation of under-utilised assets in 1Q22.

A drawdown on the existing currency swap facility with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) could boost reserves by up to CNY10 billion (USD1.5 billion equivalent). However, even with resources from the swap facility, foreign exchange reserves are likely to remain under pressure, in our view. Additional sources of financing could come from an economic support package from India, which contains a swap facility under the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation currency framework of USD400 million, a swap facility with the Qatar Central Bank, remittances securitisation and a revolving credit facility with the Bank of China Limited (A/Stable). However, even if all these sources are secured, we believe it will be challenging for the government to maintain sufficient external liquidity to allow for uninterrupted debt servicing in 2022.

Press reports suggest the government may be contemplating IMF financing; an IMF programme would unlock multilateral financing, but we believe the Fund could well suggest restructuring to bring about debt sustainability.

Sri Lanka’s external finances are further challenged by a persistent current account deficit, resulting in downward pressure on the exchange rate. We estimate that the deficit widened to about 5.7% of GDP in 2021 and expect it to remain at about 4.0% in 2022, before falling to 2.1% by 2023. A plunge in remittances, a weak tourism recovery and rising imports have contributed to the wider current account deficit. Travel and tourism, an important economic driver, has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and the outlook for a recovery remains uncertain given the emergence of new highly transmissible virus variants.

The Sri Lankan rupee/US dollar spot exchange rate depreciated by 7%-8% since end-2020, and the central bank intervened to support the currency, exacerbating the decline in reserves.

Wide fiscal deficits continue to worsen the outlook for debt sustainability. The 2021 fiscal deficit target of 8.9% of GDP was missed by a wide margin, and we expect the government deficit to widen to about 11.5% of GDP in 2022. We believe 2022 revenue targets are optimistic, especially in light of our expectation of weak economic activity. We forecast general government debt to reach about 110% of GDP by 2022, and to keep rising under our baseline, absent major fiscal consolidation.

We also believe it is unlikely that Sri Lanka will meet its 2025 government debt reduction target of about 89% of GDP or narrow the fiscal deficit to 4.8% of GDP. Rising interest payments are a major driver of the widening deficit and the interest/revenue ratio of at about 95.0% is well above the peer median of 11.3%.

Sri Lanka’s economic performance is likely to weaken in 2022, as the challenging external position and exchange-rate pressure will have knock-on effects on economic activity. Foreign currency shortages in 2021 hampered food and fuel imports, and continued external liquidity stress could worsen supply shortages, hurting economic activity. We expect growth to slow to 2.0% in 2022, from an estimated 3.6% in 2021, before recovering to 4.3% in 2023 partly due to base effects and a gradual easing of domestic pressures, although downside risks to our forecasts remain. Sri Lanka’s economy was expanding at a modest pace prior to the pandemic, which led real GDP to contract by 3.6% in 2020.

ESG – Governance: Sri Lanka has an ESG Relevance Score of ‘5’ for Political Stability and Rights. This reflects the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Sri Lanka has a medium WBGI ranking at the 47th percentile, reflecting a recent record of peaceful political transitions and a moderate level of rights for participation in the political process. As Sri Lanka has a percentile rank below 50 for the governance indicator, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.



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Sri Lanka Brand Forum aims to reshape business for a ‘BANI world’

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A newly launched initiative, the Sri Lanka Brand Forum (SLBF), seeks to redefine the role of business in national development, urging companies to move beyond profit and become “institutions of trust, clarity, and progress.”

At a recent press conference in Colombo, founders announced the forum as a response to what they described as a BANI world – an acronym for Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, and Incomprehensible – where uncertainty has become the norm.

Central to the forum’s launch is its flagship event, the Leadership Summit, themed ‘Resilience Redefined: Leadership for a New Era.’

The upcoming Summit will gather business leaders, policymakers, and innovators to explore how leadership must evolve amid rapid disruption and global uncertainty. It will feature global experts including David Aaker (UC Berkeley), Sanjiv Mehta (former Unilever South Asia chairman), and Prof. Kulvant Singh (NUS Business School).

Rohan Somawansa, Co-Founder of Sri Lanka Brand Forum said, “Today’s launch of Sri Lanka Brand Forum marks a defining moment for our nation. Sri Lanka’s potential has always been undeniable. What we need now is to harness that potential with strategic intent, meaningful leadership, and collective action. The Brand Forum will be a catalyst for that change.”

“Sri Lanka Brand Forum is not just an initiative – it is a movement to reimagine the future of business and the future of Sri Lanka,” said Chairman Shariful Islam.

When The Island Financial Review asked why no Sri Lankan business leaders were featured even as guest speakers despite the summit’s inclusive vision, Islam confirmed that several Sri Lankan business leaders will indeed be speaking at the event.

By Sanath Nanayakkare

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SLS rule on plastic bottles takes effect amid health concerns

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A sweeping regulatory move to safeguard public health came into force April 1, banning the manufacture and sale of baby feeding bottles and reusable plastic bottles containing harmful chemicals such as Bisphenol A (BPA), while making Sri Lanka Standards (SLS) certification mandatory across the sector.

The new regulation, issued by the Consumer Affairs Authority under Extraordinary Gazette No. 2456/42 dated October 1, 2025, requires all manufacturers, importers, distributors and traders to comply with strict safety standards or face a complete prohibition on their products.

Under the directive, no plastic bottle falling within the specified categories can be manufactured, imported, transported, stored or sold unless it carries the official SLS certification mark issued by the Sri Lanka Standards Institution.

The regulation covers two key product categories: reusable plastic bottles used for carrying potable liquids, governed by SLS 1616, and polymer-based feeding bottles, regulated under SLS 1306.

Environmental Scientist Hemantha Withanage welcomed the move, describing it as “long overdue and critically important” in addressing the silent health risks posed by chemical leaching from low-quality plastics.

“Bisphenol A is a known endocrine disruptor. Its presence in food and beverage containers, especially those used by infants, is extremely dangerous. This regulation is not just about standards — it is about protecting future generations,” Withanage told The Island Financial Review.

He stressed that substandard plastic products have long flooded the local market due to weak enforcement and lack of consumer awareness.

“For years, Sri Lanka has been a dumping ground for inferior plastic products. Without strict compliance mechanisms, regulations remain on paper. What is important now is rigorous enforcement and continuous market surveillance,” he said.

Withanage also pointed out the broader environmental dimension, noting that improved standards could indirectly reduce plastic pollution by encouraging higher-quality, longer-lasting products.

“Better standards mean fewer disposable plastics and less environmental damage. This is an opportunity to shift towards safer and more sustainable consumption patterns,” he added.

Industry stakeholders, however, are expected to face short-term adjustment pressures, particularly smaller importers and retailers who may struggle to meet certification requirements. Analysts say the regulation could temporarily tighten supply but will ultimately elevate product quality and consumer trust.

Officials of the Consumer Affairs Authority said that raids and inspections will be intensified islandwide to ensure compliance, warning that legal action will be taken against violators.

The move aligns Sri Lanka with growing global restrictions on BPA and unsafe food-contact materials, reinforcing the country’s commitment to consumer safety and environmental protection.

Withanage added that as regulation takes hold, its success will hinge not only on enforcement but also on public awareness — ensuring that consumers actively seek out certified products and reject potentially hazardous alternatives.

By Ifham Nizam

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IMF reviews progress as Sri Lanka stresses economic resilience amid external pressures

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IMF reviews progress as Sri Lanka stresses economic resilience amid external pressures

Sri Lanka has made steady progress under the International Monetary Fund Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme, with the fifth and sixth reviews now under close assessment, informed officials said following high-level discussions held at the Presidential Secretariat yesterday.

A visiting delegation led by IMF Mission Chief for Sri Lanka Evan Papageorgiou met President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and senior government leaders to evaluate the country’s performance against key reform benchmarks, including fiscal consolidation, revenue mobilisation and external sector stability.

“Informed officials indicated that Sri Lanka has demonstrated notable resilience despite a challenging global environment,” sources familiar with the discussions told The Island Financial Review. “There has been measurable progress in stabilising macroeconomic conditions, particularly in terms of rebuilding foreign reserves and strengthening public finance management.”

The talks focused extensively on maintaining the current reform momentum, with both sides acknowledging that policy consistency would be critical to sustaining recent gains.

“Officials emphasised that the economy is now in a more shock-resilient position compared to the height of the crisis,” a senior source said. “However, they also cautioned that this stability remains fragile and requires continued fiscal discipline and structural reforms.”

Particular attention was paid to Sri Lanka’s revenue performance, which has been a cornerstone of the IMF-supported programme.

“The improvement in revenue collection has been a key positive,” an official noted. “It reflects both policy measures and better administration, but sustaining this trajectory will be essential to meeting programme targets.”

The discussions also addressed the buildup of foreign reserves, a critical buffer against external vulnerabilities.

“Rebuilding reserves has strengthened confidence,” another official said. “It provides a degree of insulation against global shocks, although the country is not yet fully out of risk territory.”

Officials acknowledged that emerging geopolitical tensions—particularly the ongoing instability in the Middle East—pose a fresh external challenge.

“The impact from the Middle East situation is unavoidable,” a source said. “Higher energy prices and supply uncertainties are already exerting pressure, and these factors could affect inflation and the balance of payments.”

In response, the government has prioritised targeted relief measures to cushion vulnerable groups from rising costs, particularly in relation to fuel and energy.

“There is a clear focus on ensuring that any shocks are managed without derailing the broader reform programme,” an official explained. “Targeted support, rather than broad subsidies, remains the preferred approach.”

Energy security and pricing were also

key areas of discussion, given their direct impact on both fiscal stability and household welfare.

“Maintaining cost-reflective pricing while protecting the most vulnerable is a delicate balance,” a senior official said. “But it is essential for the sustainability of the sector.”

The IMF team is expected to continue its assessment in the coming days, with outcomes of the fifth and sixth reviews likely to play a crucial role in determining the next phase of disbursements under the programme.

“Informed officials stressed that successful completion of these reviews would send a strong signal to international markets and development partners,” sources said.

They added that Sri Lanka’s reform trajectory has already contributed to improved investor sentiment, although sustained confidence will depend on consistent policy implementation.

“The message from both sides is clear—stay the course,” an official said. “The foundations for recovery are being laid, but the process is far from complete.”

By Ifham Nizam

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