Business
COVID-19 and the Sri Lankan economy: Policy choices and trade-offs
By Chathurrdhika Yogarajah
Sri Lanka’s macro-economic outlook amidst the COVID-19 pandemic came under the spotlight at a webinar panel discussion held on October 11, to mark the release of IPS’ flagship report, ‘Sri Lanka: State of the Economy 2021’. The event featured presentations by Dr Dushni Weerakoon and Dr Asanka Wijesinghe from IPS with expert insights from Dr Missaka Warusawitharana, Financial Economist, Johns Hopkins University, USA. Tharindu Udayanga from IPS moderated the discussion.
Prospects and Possibilities Dr Dushni Weerakoon, Executive Director, IPS
A V-shaped recovery is likely to take shape, but Sri Lanka faces a relatively weak output growth. A critical challenge is to lift the growth rate to, at least, 5-6% and maintain that momentum in the medium term. How investments perform will be a crucial determinant, as the dip in investment was a major driver of output contraction in 2020. With little fiscal space, Sri Lanka relied mostly on monetary policy. There was a surge in direct financing of fiscal spending, and there were efforts to ensure that borrowing costs were kept low via yield-control measures.
Sri Lanka is not so fortunately placed when considering the risks related to large-scale debt monetisation programmes due to high debt levels, elevated exposure to foreign debt with repayments of sizeable amounts in the medium term, and the low reserve stockpiles. With such weak fundamentals, the backbone of debt monetisation programmes is policy credibility. But for the last 18 months, there has been no notable effort to curtail discretionary spending and anchor fiscal plans. Thus, Sri Lanka is reluctant to deal with IMF conditionalities.
Policy measures must address fiscal imbalances through cuts in national spending or raising national income. As the latter takes time, the governments tend to focus on a policy mix to cut national spending that includes tighter budgets allowing interest rates to move with market fundamentals and implementing more flexible exchange rates. The downside is that the growth suffers in the short term with worsening debt ratios. These are politically difficult choices when economic conditions are tight as they are now.
Sri Lanka must firm up its access to foreign capital markets to balance the risks. If Sri Lanka comes to an adjustment on the fiscal front and improves access to capital markets, this will free up the space for a more orderly macroeconomic adjustment. Though the exchange rate may initially overshoot, it can be stabilised over time. This will allow the Central Bank to reverse its debt monetisation and focus on price stability, as that will be an area of concern in the coming months. A policy framework along these lines will provide a more robust environment to support investment and sustain Sri Lanka’s recovery.
Opportunities and Costs Dr Asanka Wijesinghe, Research Economist, IPS
During the pre-pandemic period, there was stabilisation in the rate of globalisation, but Sri Lanka’s openness has continuously declined especially after 2005 due to GDP growth in nontradeable sectors. However, Bangladesh, India, and South Asia, in general, show an increasing trend of openness. COVID-19 led to a deep plunge in the world’s industrial production and trade in 2019. But even after this collapse, it recovered by the beginning of 2021. There is no evidence to show deglobalisation effects due to the pandemic.
When the world trade outlook is taken into consideration, the WTO predicts a pickup in global trade volumes for the year 2022. An IMF database that uses signals emitted by sea vessels also showed an uptick in world trade from the beginning of 2021. Sri Lanka should ready itself to take advantage of trade diversion and investments opportunities the tariffs imposed on China’s textiles by the US, for instance. At present, its global value chain (GVC) participation is low and in fact declined from 2009 to 2019. In contrast countries like Bangladesh, Viet Nam, India and Pakistan showed an increasing trend. He pointed out that the US-China trade war presents opportunities for Sri Lanka to increase both forward and backward GVC participation.
A key challenge is the costly policy of import substitution, resulting in resource misallocation, reduced competitiveness, and possible retaliation from trade partners. Another challenge for Sri Lanka is the potential withdrawal of GSP+ which will be a hard hit on the seafood and textile industries. Sri Lanka should work to secure GSP+, disengage from the ‘anti-trade’ bias, integrate with GVCs, and restructure existing regional trade agreements.
Roads to Recovery
Dr Missaka Warusawitharana, Financial Economist, Johns Hopkins University, USA
Sri Lanka’s growth trajectory has not been in line with its true potential, adversely impacting the well-being of the people. This can be attributed to the low level of productivity growth. Although the manufacturing sector has contributed to growth, it has not demonstrated sufficient productivity that would enable the country to achieve a better output.
Further, the current fiscal difficulties can be pinned to structural imbalances in the country’s budgets that have spanned decades along with different administrations that have been unwilling to make hard choices. In the longer term, budgets must be structured to bring the debt down to a manageable level.
The world economy is moving away from physical goods to a digital-based economy, requiring greater provision of services. Sri Lanka scores well on the Human Development Index with its knowledgeable workforce. The need is to increase productivity by investing more in education and service-producing industries and improve the business environment by reducing institutional barriers.
Link to blog: https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2021/10/15/covid-19-and-the-sri-lankan-economy-policy-choices-and-trade-offs/
Chathurrdhika Yogarajah is a Research Assistant at IPS with research interests in macroeconomics and trade policy. She holds a BSc (Hons) in Agricultural Technology and Management, specialised in Applied Economics and Business Management from the University of Peradeniya with First Class Honours. She is currently reading for her Master’s in Agricultural Economics at the Postgraduate Institute of Agriculture, Peradeniya. (Talk with Chathurrdhika: chathurrdhika@ips.lk)
National Development Bank PLC (NDB) conducted its Investor and Analysts Earnings Call on 12th of March, following the release of the financial results and annual report for the full year ended December 31, 2024.
The session, led by Kelum Edirisinghe, Director and Chief Executive Officer of NDB Bank, along with the bank’s senior management team, was held virtually via Zoom. During the call, the CEO delivered a comprehensive presentation on the bank’s financial performance for FY 2024, its strategic direction, and key operational highlights. This was followed by an interactive Q&A session, providing investors and analysts with valuable insights into the bank’s growth trajectory and future outlook.
The forum attracted a diverse group of stakeholders, including research analysts, stockbrokers, fund managers, and investors. Organized by NDB’s Investor Relations Team, the session reinforced the bank’s commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement. Since 2014, NDB has consistently hosted these quarterly and annual earnings calls, demonstrating a longstanding commitment to fostering trust and accountability. Transcripts and recordings of the call will be made available on the bank’s website, ensuring continued access to key insights.
During the presentation, the CEO highlighted NDB’s strong financial performance in 2024, underpinned by strategic initiatives aimed at optimizing the cost of funds, strengthening portfolio quality, and driving sustainable profitability. The bank’s digital transformation efforts, coupled with a focus on enhancing transactional and fee-based income, played a pivotal role in navigating macroeconomic challenges and positioning NDB for long-term growth. The Q&A session that followed saw insightful discussions on key topics, including the bank’s loan portfolio quality, CASA base, projected loan growth, sources for loan growth, and expectations on interest rate movements in the economy.
Despite the dynamic economic landscape, NDB remained resilient, leveraging its robust risk management framework and customer-centric approach to maintain stability and deliver value to stakeholders.
The Commercial Bank of Ceylon has been voted the ‘People’s Private Banking Services Brand of the Year’ for the third consecutive year at the SLIM Kantar People’s Awards 2025, in a significant validation of the Bank’s status as the most popular private sector bank in the country.
Presented by the Sri Lanka Institute of Marketing (SLIM) and based on research by Kantar, a leading global insights agency, these awards are considered the ultimate testament to consumer-driven recognition in Sri Lanka. They are determined solely by consumer votes rather than a panel of experts, and recognise the brands and personalities that have earned the trust and loyalty of Sri Lankans.
The Bank said this accolade is a testament to the continuing impact of its services in the lives of millions of people, as well as the effectiveness of the Bank’s brand-building efforts and marketing initiatives. The Bank’s continuous engagement with customers, innovative campaigns, and commitment to delivering superior banking experiences have been instrumental in securing this recognition.
During the Eng. (Prof.) R. H. Paul Memorial Oration 2025, Prof. Lilantha Samaranayake emphasised the urgent need for advanced solar photovoltaic (PV) integration to create a resilient and sustainable energy future. Speaking on the Future of Renewable Energy, he highlighted projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that forecast global renewable electricity generation will exceed 17,000 TWh by 2030, representing an almost 90% increase from 2023. Solar PV is anticipated to become the leading source of renewable electricity, followed by wind and hydroelectric power.
Sri Lanka has set an ambitious target of achieving 100% renewable energy. Policymakers are working towards a people-centric, equitable, and affordable energy transition. The government also aims to reduce electricity tariffs by 30% within five years, though no specific timeline has been set for net-zero emissions.
Challenges in Solar PV Integration—While renewable energy adoption is increasing, challenges remain. A major issue is grid stability due to solar energy’s intermittent nature. Grid stability refers to the ability of an electrical power grid to maintain a consistent voltage and frequency while balancing electricity supply and demand. One of the main challenges with integrating solar energy into the grid is its intermittent nature, meaning that solar power generation fluctuates depending on sunlight availability. This variability can cause instability in the grid.
Why is Solar Energy Intermittent? Solar panels generate electricity only when exposed to sunlight. At night, there is no generation, requiring alternative power sources. Cloud cover, rain, and seasonal changes affect solar energy output. On cloudy days, solar generation can drop suddenly, causing fluctuations in power supply. Unlike conventional power plants that provide a steady output, solar energy can vary within minutes, making it challenging to maintain a stable power flow.
How Does This Affect Grid Stability? The Electricity grids operate at a specific frequency (e.g., 50 Hz or 60 Hz). A sudden drop in solar power generation can lead to a decrease in frequency, potentially causing power outages. Solar energy injections can cause voltage levels to rise or drop unpredictably, affecting equipment performance and consumer supply quality. Traditional power plants have rotating generators that provide inertia, helping to stabilise the grid. Solar PV systems do not have this natural inertia, making the grid more susceptible to instability.
Prof. Samaranayake explained that Sri Lanka’s current power generation mix, as of November 2024, includes:
27% from hydroelectric power
19.6% from rooftop solar
14.3% from coal
13.6% from oil
5.1% from private oil plants
Smaller contributions from wind, biomass, and other renewable sources
A key concern is the lack of inertia in renewable energy sources. Unlike conventional power plants, solar and wind do not provide inherent grid stability, leading to frequency fluctuations.
Prof. Samaranayake proposed an innovative solution for grid stability: implementing Virtual Inertia using advanced power electronic control systems. This approach mimics the stabilising effect of traditional rotating generators, ensuring a steady frequency supply in the grid.
Other potential solutions include:
Adding rotating machines such as LNG or nuclear power plants
Energy storage systems like pumped storage, flywheels, and large-scale battery systems
Enhancing grid regulations to support the integration of rooftop solar PV systems
The introduction of advanced Virtual Inertia technology is expected to complement regulatory changes that relax statutory voltage limits and improve the quality of electricity supply.
Another controversial yet forward-looking strategy discussed was the possibility of nuclear energy. According to sources from the Sri Lanka Atomic Energy Board (SLAEB), the country’s first nuclear power plant, leveraging integral pressurized water reactor (iPWR) technology, could be operational by 2032. Given Sri Lanka’s proximity to India, which already operates nuclear plants, proponents argue that nuclear energy could be a viable option for stabilizing the power grid.
Prof. Samaranayake stressed the need for a holistic approach, as solar PV continues to be vital to Sri Lanka’s energy future. This involves investing in energy storage, enhancing grid infrastructure, and enacting regulatory reforms. He called on policymakers, engineers, and the public to collaborate in creating a more sustainable and resilient energy landscape.
The Eng. (Prof.) R. H. Paul Memorial Oration reminds us of engineering and innovation’s critical role in tackling global energy challenges. With strategic planning and technological advancements, Sri Lanka can pave the way for a cleaner, more sustainable future.
The oration paid tribute to the late Prof. R. H. Paul, a distinguished academic and former Dean of the Faculty of Engineering, University of Peradeniya, who made significant contributions to electrical and electronic engineering in Sri Lanka. His legacy continues to inspire advancements in the energy sector.
Recent history repeats for first five gold medallists at WIC Nanjing 25
ECSL launch Election Dispute Resolution (EDR) Mobile App
Trump revokes security clearance for Harris, Clinton and others
-
Business2 days agoCargoserv Shipping partners Prima Ceylon & onboards Nestlé Lanka for landmark rail logistics initiative
-
Sports5 days agoSri Lanka to compete against USA, Jamaica in relay finals
-
Features7 days agoThe Royal-Thomian and its Timeless Charm
-
Features7 days ago‘Thomia’: Richard Simon’s Masterpiece
-
Business2 days agoSri Lankans Vote Dialog as the Telecommunication Brand and Service Brand of the Year
-
Features2 days agoThe Vaping Veil: Unmasking the dangers of E-Cigarettes
-
News20 hours agoDefence Ministry of Japan Delegation visits Pathfinder Foundation
-
Business5 days agoAffairs of SriLankan Airlines could be turned around using local expertise – former CAA chair