Business

COVID-19 and the Sri Lankan economy: Policy choices and trade-offs

Published

3 years ago

2021/10/16

By Chathurrdhika Yogarajah

Sri Lanka’s macro-economic outlook amidst the COVID-19 pandemic came under the spotlight at a webinar panel discussion held on October 11, to mark the release of IPS’ flagship report, ‘Sri Lanka: State of the Economy 2021’. The event featured presentations by Dr Dushni Weerakoon and Dr Asanka Wijesinghe from IPS with expert insights from Dr Missaka Warusawitharana, Financial Economist, Johns Hopkins University, USA. Tharindu Udayanga from IPS moderated the discussion.

Prospects and Possibilities Dr Dushni Weerakoon, Executive Director, IPS

A V-shaped recovery is likely to take shape, but Sri Lanka faces a relatively weak output growth. A critical challenge is to lift the growth rate to, at least, 5-6% and maintain that momentum in the medium term. How investments perform will be a crucial determinant, as the dip in investment was a major driver of output contraction in 2020. With little fiscal space, Sri Lanka relied mostly on monetary policy. There was a surge in direct financing of fiscal spending, and there were efforts to ensure that borrowing costs were kept low via yield-control measures.

Sri Lanka is not so fortunately placed when considering the risks related to large-scale debt monetisation programmes due to high debt levels, elevated exposure to foreign debt with repayments of sizeable amounts in the medium term, and the low reserve stockpiles. With such weak fundamentals, the backbone of debt monetisation programmes is policy credibility. But for the last 18 months, there has been no notable effort to curtail discretionary spending and anchor fiscal plans. Thus, Sri Lanka is reluctant to deal with IMF conditionalities.

Policy measures must address fiscal imbalances through cuts in national spending or raising national income. As the latter takes time, the governments tend to focus on a policy mix to cut national spending that includes tighter budgets allowing interest rates to move with market fundamentals and implementing more flexible exchange rates. The downside is that the growth suffers in the short term with worsening debt ratios. These are politically difficult choices when economic conditions are tight as they are now.

Sri Lanka must firm up its access to foreign capital markets to balance the risks. If Sri Lanka comes to an adjustment on the fiscal front and improves access to capital markets, this will free up the space for a more orderly macroeconomic adjustment. Though the exchange rate may initially overshoot, it can be stabilised over time. This will allow the Central Bank to reverse its debt monetisation and focus on price stability, as that will be an area of concern in the coming months. A policy framework along these lines will provide a more robust environment to support investment and sustain Sri Lanka’s recovery.

Opportunities and Costs Dr Asanka Wijesinghe, Research Economist, IPS

During the pre-pandemic period, there was stabilisation in the rate of globalisation, but Sri Lanka’s openness has continuously declined especially after 2005 due to GDP growth in nontradeable sectors. However, Bangladesh, India, and South Asia, in general, show an increasing trend of openness. COVID-19 led to a deep plunge in the world’s industrial production and trade in 2019. But even after this collapse, it recovered by the beginning of 2021. There is no evidence to show deglobalisation effects due to the pandemic.

When the world trade outlook is taken into consideration, the WTO predicts a pickup in global trade volumes for the year 2022. An IMF database that uses signals emitted by sea vessels also showed an uptick in world trade from the beginning of 2021. Sri Lanka should ready itself to take advantage of trade diversion and investments opportunities the tariffs imposed on China’s textiles by the US, for instance. At present, its global value chain (GVC) participation is low and in fact declined from 2009 to 2019. In contrast countries like Bangladesh, Viet Nam, India and Pakistan showed an increasing trend. He pointed out that the US-China trade war presents opportunities for Sri Lanka to increase both forward and backward GVC participation.

A key challenge is the costly policy of import substitution, resulting in resource misallocation, reduced competitiveness, and possible retaliation from trade partners. Another challenge for Sri Lanka is the potential withdrawal of GSP+ which will be a hard hit on the seafood and textile industries. Sri Lanka should work to secure GSP+, disengage from the ‘anti-trade’ bias, integrate with GVCs, and restructure existing regional trade agreements.

Roads to Recovery

Dr Missaka Warusawitharana, Financial Economist, Johns Hopkins University, USA

Sri Lanka’s growth trajectory has not been in line with its true potential, adversely impacting the well-being of the people. This can be attributed to the low level of productivity growth. Although the manufacturing sector has contributed to growth, it has not demonstrated sufficient productivity that would enable the country to achieve a better output.

Further, the current fiscal difficulties can be pinned to structural imbalances in the country’s budgets that have spanned decades along with different administrations that have been unwilling to make hard choices. In the longer term, budgets must be structured to bring the debt down to a manageable level.

The world economy is moving away from physical goods to a digital-based economy, requiring greater provision of services. Sri Lanka scores well on the Human Development Index with its knowledgeable workforce. The need is to increase productivity by investing more in education and service-producing industries and improve the business environment by reducing institutional barriers.

Link to blog: https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2021/10/15/covid-19-and-the-sri-lankan-economy-policy-choices-and-trade-offs/

Chathurrdhika Yogarajah is a Research Assistant at IPS with research interests in macroeconomics and trade policy. She holds a BSc (Hons) in Agricultural Technology and Management, specialised in Applied Economics and Business Management from the University of Peradeniya with First Class Honours. She is currently reading for her Master’s in Agricultural Economics at the Postgraduate Institute of Agriculture, Peradeniya. (Talk with Chathurrdhika: chathurrdhika@ips.lk)

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Business

President discusses enhancing revenue and efficiency with Sri Lanka Customs and Inland Revenue officials

Published

4 hours ago

2024/10/9

Priyan

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake held a key meeting with senior officials from both the Sri Lanka Customs Department and the Inland Revenue Department at the Presidential Secretariat today (09). The discussions centered on strategies to enhance revenue generation and improve operational efficiency within both departments, in line with the government’s broader economic mandate.

During the meeting, officials from both departments presented the challenges they face in managing revenue and tackling tax evasion. They stressed the importance of strengthening coordination between the Inland Revenue Department (IRD) and Customs to effectively combat these issues. It was highlighted that better collaboration would ensure more robust enforcement of tax laws and prevent tax leakage, further boosting the country’s revenue collection.

Representing the Sri Lanka Customs Department were P B S C Nonis, Director General of Customs; Mrs. H W S P Karunaratne, Additional Director General of Customs; . C S A Chandrasekara, Additional Director General of Customs; W S I Silva, Additional Director General of Customs; S P Arukgoda, Additional Director General of Customs; J M M G Wijeratna Bandara, Additional Director General of Customs; A. W. L. C. Weerakoon, Senior Deputy Director and M R G A B Muthukuda, Chief Financial Officer, among other officials.

From the Inland Revenue Department, Mrs. W S Chandrasekara, Commissioner General; B K S Shanta, Deputy Commissioner General; Mrs. J A D D B K Siriwardena, Deputy Commissioner General; Mrs. J D Ranasinghe, Deputy Commissioner General; D M N S B Dissanayake, Deputy Commissioner General; H H S Samantha Kumara; and Ms. T M S Thennakone, Senior Commissioner, participated in the discussions.

Business

First multi-stakeholder initiative on Child Rights in Tourism launched in Sri Lanka

Published

21 hours ago

2024/10/9

Sahan Weerasooriya

Pictured from left: Buddhini Withana, Senior Technical Advisor Child Protection and Child Rights in Business, Save the Children; Irstel Janssen, Director, Sustainable Sri Lanka; Mayuran, Director, Centre for Children’s Happiness during a panel discussion at the Seal launch event.

On World Tourism Day, representatives from leading hotel businesses, tourism associations, NGOs, and government departments convened in Colombo to officially launch the Mother and Child-Friendly Seal for Responsible Business in Tourism. This pioneering initiative, the first of its kind in Sri Lanka, brings together key actors from the tourism supply chain to enhance the well-being of children and families connected to the sector through long-term, continuous actions.

The launch comes on the heels of a new study by The Centre for Child Rights and Business in partnership with Save the Children, highlighting serious child rights risks in Sri Lanka’s tourism industry. The study identifies key challenges such as sexual exploitation, child labour, and educational disruptions, driven by factors like inadequate regulation of guesthouses and homestays, the absence of child safeguarding measures among tourism providers, and a lack of formalised pathways to decent work for youth.

This event marks a significant milestone in the expansion of the Mother and Child-Friendly Seal, which has already seen success in Sri Lanka’s tea sector, with seven major plantation companies and exporters committing to initiatives that improve the welfare of tea communities. The extension of this Seal to the tourism sector is timely, as Sri Lanka prepares to welcome over 3 million tourists by 2025, positioning the industry to align with global human rights due diligence regulations and the growing demand for ethical tourism.

At the launch, stakeholders engaged in practical discussions about the child rights risks facing the tourism sector and explored collective solutions. Issues such as the outmigration of mothers and its impact on children were brought up, with participants offering valuable insights into areas for Seal members to address.

The panel discussed the critical issues that women and children face in the travel and tourism industries and some of the priorities and opportunities that the industry could address.

“Young children often do not realise they are being exploited. Providing a safe and respectful environment for them should be our primary goal. We must consider the risk factors in these scenarios, as there is currently no data to support issues in tourism, such as trafficking and exploitation. While problems like festival tourism have existed, they have increased since COVID-19 and have been exacerbated by the economic crisis,” said Buddhini Withana, Senior Technical Advisor Child Protection and Child Rights in Business, Save the Children.

Irstel Janssen, Director, Sustainable Sri Lanka added: “10% of women are working in this sector due to social stigma, safety concerns, and harassment. The economic crisis has forced women to step into this industry, but they are not employed in roles that match the nature of the work. The Seal initiative is an important step to address these issues and encourage more women’s participation.”

One of the highlights of the event was a keynote speech delivered by Cinnamon Hotels, where they underscored their commitment to protecting women and children. The company outlined key initiatives, including robust policies to support the female workforce, a zero-tolerance stance on misconduct, and a comprehensive sexual harassment policy. Cinnamon Hotels also conducts awareness sessions to educate staff about these policies, provides parental leave, and offers 100 days of paternity leave. Additionally, the company places a strong emphasis on mental health benefits for all employees. Their efforts served as an inspiration for other accommodation providers, offering practical steps to strengthen child safeguarding and empower women in the tourism sector.

For more information about the Mother and Child-Friendly Seal for Responsible Business, visit srilanka-motherandchildseal.org or contact info.SL@childrights-business.org.

Business

‘Brandix – A Great Place to Work for Women’

Published

21 hours ago

2024/10/9

Sahan Weerasooriya

Sri Lanka’s premier apparel solutions provider, Brandix, was recognized as one of Sri Lanka’s Most Outstanding Women-Friendly Workplaces at the Satyn Magazine Women Friendly Workplace Awards (WFWA) 2024. Initiated by CIMA Asia, the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) and Satyn Magazine, the accolade recognizes and celebrates organizations committed to gender equality and women empowerment. Senior General Manager Human Resources at Brandix, Dinusha Jayamanne, said Brandix is ‘constantly exploring new avenues to create a more inclusive and enriching environment for its female workforce, and the company stands proud of the pioneering initiatives it launched in this sphere.’ The latest award is a testament to the impact of these measures implemented across Brandix facilities in Sri Lanka and the world.