Business
COVID-19 and the Sri Lankan economy: Policy choices and trade-offs
By Chathurrdhika Yogarajah
Sri Lanka’s macro-economic outlook amidst the COVID-19 pandemic came under the spotlight at a webinar panel discussion held on October 11, to mark the release of IPS’ flagship report, ‘Sri Lanka: State of the Economy 2021’. The event featured presentations by Dr Dushni Weerakoon and Dr Asanka Wijesinghe from IPS with expert insights from Dr Missaka Warusawitharana, Financial Economist, Johns Hopkins University, USA. Tharindu Udayanga from IPS moderated the discussion.
Prospects and Possibilities Dr Dushni Weerakoon, Executive Director, IPS
A V-shaped recovery is likely to take shape, but Sri Lanka faces a relatively weak output growth. A critical challenge is to lift the growth rate to, at least, 5-6% and maintain that momentum in the medium term. How investments perform will be a crucial determinant, as the dip in investment was a major driver of output contraction in 2020. With little fiscal space, Sri Lanka relied mostly on monetary policy. There was a surge in direct financing of fiscal spending, and there were efforts to ensure that borrowing costs were kept low via yield-control measures.
Sri Lanka is not so fortunately placed when considering the risks related to large-scale debt monetisation programmes due to high debt levels, elevated exposure to foreign debt with repayments of sizeable amounts in the medium term, and the low reserve stockpiles. With such weak fundamentals, the backbone of debt monetisation programmes is policy credibility. But for the last 18 months, there has been no notable effort to curtail discretionary spending and anchor fiscal plans. Thus, Sri Lanka is reluctant to deal with IMF conditionalities.
Policy measures must address fiscal imbalances through cuts in national spending or raising national income. As the latter takes time, the governments tend to focus on a policy mix to cut national spending that includes tighter budgets allowing interest rates to move with market fundamentals and implementing more flexible exchange rates. The downside is that the growth suffers in the short term with worsening debt ratios. These are politically difficult choices when economic conditions are tight as they are now.
Sri Lanka must firm up its access to foreign capital markets to balance the risks. If Sri Lanka comes to an adjustment on the fiscal front and improves access to capital markets, this will free up the space for a more orderly macroeconomic adjustment. Though the exchange rate may initially overshoot, it can be stabilised over time. This will allow the Central Bank to reverse its debt monetisation and focus on price stability, as that will be an area of concern in the coming months. A policy framework along these lines will provide a more robust environment to support investment and sustain Sri Lanka’s recovery.
Opportunities and Costs Dr Asanka Wijesinghe, Research Economist, IPS
During the pre-pandemic period, there was stabilisation in the rate of globalisation, but Sri Lanka’s openness has continuously declined especially after 2005 due to GDP growth in nontradeable sectors. However, Bangladesh, India, and South Asia, in general, show an increasing trend of openness. COVID-19 led to a deep plunge in the world’s industrial production and trade in 2019. But even after this collapse, it recovered by the beginning of 2021. There is no evidence to show deglobalisation effects due to the pandemic.
When the world trade outlook is taken into consideration, the WTO predicts a pickup in global trade volumes for the year 2022. An IMF database that uses signals emitted by sea vessels also showed an uptick in world trade from the beginning of 2021. Sri Lanka should ready itself to take advantage of trade diversion and investments opportunities the tariffs imposed on China’s textiles by the US, for instance. At present, its global value chain (GVC) participation is low and in fact declined from 2009 to 2019. In contrast countries like Bangladesh, Viet Nam, India and Pakistan showed an increasing trend. He pointed out that the US-China trade war presents opportunities for Sri Lanka to increase both forward and backward GVC participation.
A key challenge is the costly policy of import substitution, resulting in resource misallocation, reduced competitiveness, and possible retaliation from trade partners. Another challenge for Sri Lanka is the potential withdrawal of GSP+ which will be a hard hit on the seafood and textile industries. Sri Lanka should work to secure GSP+, disengage from the ‘anti-trade’ bias, integrate with GVCs, and restructure existing regional trade agreements.
Roads to Recovery
Dr Missaka Warusawitharana, Financial Economist, Johns Hopkins University, USA
Sri Lanka’s growth trajectory has not been in line with its true potential, adversely impacting the well-being of the people. This can be attributed to the low level of productivity growth. Although the manufacturing sector has contributed to growth, it has not demonstrated sufficient productivity that would enable the country to achieve a better output.
Further, the current fiscal difficulties can be pinned to structural imbalances in the country’s budgets that have spanned decades along with different administrations that have been unwilling to make hard choices. In the longer term, budgets must be structured to bring the debt down to a manageable level.
The world economy is moving away from physical goods to a digital-based economy, requiring greater provision of services. Sri Lanka scores well on the Human Development Index with its knowledgeable workforce. The need is to increase productivity by investing more in education and service-producing industries and improve the business environment by reducing institutional barriers.
Link to blog: https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2021/10/15/covid-19-and-the-sri-lankan-economy-policy-choices-and-trade-offs/
Chathurrdhika Yogarajah is a Research Assistant at IPS with research interests in macroeconomics and trade policy. She holds a BSc (Hons) in Agricultural Technology and Management, specialised in Applied Economics and Business Management from the University of Peradeniya with First Class Honours. She is currently reading for her Master’s in Agricultural Economics at the Postgraduate Institute of Agriculture, Peradeniya. (Talk with Chathurrdhika: chathurrdhika@ips.lk)
Business
Fuel market faces fresh pressure as Asian prices rise
By Ifham Nizam
Sri Lanka’s fuel market is coming under renewed pressure as the escalating West Asian conflict and disruption to key oil-shipping routes push up international crude and refined-fuel prices, with a top Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) official saying the Corporation is closely monitoring developments and the potential impact on domestic fuel costs.
A top CPC official said the sharp rise in international oil prices was being driven by the conflict and disruptions to energy infrastructure and shipping routes in the region.
The official said Sri Lanka’s exposure to the international price shock would also depend on the timing of fuel purchases, as petroleum cargoes are ordered well before they arrive in the country and the final landed cost is determined when the cargo is delivered.
The CPC is also seeking to cushion consumers from the full impact of international price increases while maintaining uninterrupted supplies, the official said.
The latest developments come as Brent crude remains above USD 100 a barrel despite a recent retreat in prices following efforts by Saudi Arabia to maintain exports through alternative routes.
Brent crude futures fell to USD 104.74 a barrel yesterday, while West Texas Intermediate was trading at USD 101.60, according to Reuters. Saudi Arabia has been offering additional crude cargoes to Asian refiners through Oman to offset disruptions caused by attacks on its East-West pipeline.
The immediate concern for Sri Lanka is the potential impact on the country’s petroleum import bill, foreign-exchange requirements and inflation.
Higher international crude and refined-product prices mean that more dollars are required to finance fuel imports, while higher domestic energy costs can feed into transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, fisheries and logistics.
The pressure is already being felt elsewhere in Asia.
Pakistan has raised petrol prices by Pakistani Rs. 4.42 a litre and high-speed diesel by Rs. 6.10, taking the prices to Rs. 380.24 and Rs. 409.42 respectively. The latest increase is reported to be the sixth consecutive fuel price increase in the country.
The Philippines has also raised fuel prices, with petrol increasing by 5.68 Philippine pesos a litre, diesel by 4.31 pesos and kerosene by 4.62 pesos for the latest pricing period.
The developments provide an indication of how quickly international energy-market disruptions can feed into domestic fuel markets across fuel-importing Asian economies.
For Sri Lanka, the issue is particularly significant because petroleum remains a major component of the country’s import bill. The CPC’s current prices stand at Rs. 399 a litre for 92-octane petrol and Rs. 382 for auto diesel, according to the Corporation’s latest published prices.
The government is meanwhile facing pressure to balance consumer protection with the financial sustainability of fuel suppliers.
The Energy Minister has said several options are being considered, including fuel subsidies, price limits for private distributors and adjustments to retail prices. Private operators have reported substantial losses on diesel under prevailing prices, while the CPC has said it is currently absorbing losses on diesel through earnings from other petroleum operations.
A prolonged international oil-price shock could therefore have consequences extending well beyond the pump.
Higher fuel costs would raise operating expenses for transport-dependent businesses and could increase the cost of moving goods throughout the economy. For manufacturers and exporters, higher energy and logistics costs could also affect margins and competitiveness.
At the macroeconomic level, a sustained increase in petroleum prices could increase Sri Lanka’s foreign-exchange requirements and place additional pressure on the trade balance and inflation.
The international oil market, however, remains highly fluid. Saudi Arabia’s efforts to redirect crude exports through Oman have eased some immediate supply concerns, while expectations that its damaged East-West pipeline could return to operation within days have also helped push crude prices lower.
But shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted and the wider conflict continues to pose risks to crude and refined-product supplies.
For Sri Lanka, the coming weeks will therefore be closely watched by fuel suppliers, importers and businesses as the country assesses whether the current international price shock proves temporary or develops into a more prolonged increase in the cost of energy.
Business
NSB felicitates the performance and commitment of Grade 5 students
The student, who obtained the highest marks in the Sinhala medium, at the Grade 5 Scholarship Examination – 2026, was felicitated by the National Savings Bank (NSB), recently, at the NSB Head Office, under the Hapan Pranama Scholarship Program -2026, organized by the Bank.
The Chairman of the Bank, Dr. Harsha Cabral PC, the Actg. General Manager/CEO, Rohana Bandara Weerakoon and the Corporate Management were present at the occasion.
Danoj Theekshana Weerasekara, a student of Ahatuwewa Model Primary School in Kurunegala District, has won the first place in Sinhala Medium at Grade 5 Scholarship Examination this year, with 193 marks. His remarkable achievement reflects not only his personal talents, but also the commitment of his family members, guidance of his teachers and support of the entire school community, who came together to make his triumph a reality.
The National Savings Bank, while complimenting his achievement, wishes him good luck, strength and courage for his future academic endeavors.
Being always committed towards realizing the educational goals of the children of the country, NSB organizes a seminar series, well in advance of the Examination, every year, to support them in preparation for the exam. The Bank has been able to hold more than 100 seminars islandwide this year as well.
Through these seminars, it is expected to provide the students with knowledge, guidance and mental strength, required to be successful at the Examination and the Bank has joined hands with them at an important juncture of their lives, assuring support and strength to face the exam with confidence. (NSB)
Business
CSE receives ‘Great Place to Work’ for five consecutive years
The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) has received the ‘Great Place to Work’ Certification’ for the 5th consecutive year in a row. Since 2022 the bourse has been continually awarded the certification in recognition of its commitment to providing a welcome, inclusive and safe environment.
“At CSE, our people remain our greatest strength.” remarked Rajeeva Bandaranaike, CEO of the CSE “Receiving the Great Place to Work Certification for the fifth consecutive year is a meaningful recognition of our commitment to creating a workplace culture founded on trust, respect, and collaboration. It is an achievement shared by every member of the CSE team and reflects the passion, commitment, and teamwork that continue to drive our success.”
The certification was awarded by Great Place to Work®, a global organization that grants this recognition across more than 180 countries and regions and represents over 20 million employees and 22,000 companies worldwide. The certification was based on the results of an anonymous, company-wide survey that evaluated workplace culture across five key dimensions: credibility, respect, fairness, pride, and camaraderie.
The certification reaffirms CSE’s commitment to its foundational values of Professionalism, Integrity, Care, Teamwork, Passion and Agility. By championing equity and inclusion, the CSE has built a welcoming, discrimination-free culture where every individual can thrive. A cornerstone of this success is CSE’s leadership in workplace diversity as an equal opportunity employer and signatory to the UN Women’s Empowerment Principles, alongside its close collaboration with the UN Global Compact and Respectful Workplaces initiatives. Additionally, the exchange fosters dynamic young talent, with early-career professionals accounting for 57% of its workforce.
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