Business

COVID-19 and the Sri Lankan economy: Policy choices and trade-offs

Published

5 years ago

2021/10/16

By Chathurrdhika Yogarajah

Sri Lanka’s macro-economic outlook amidst the COVID-19 pandemic came under the spotlight at a webinar panel discussion held on October 11, to mark the release of IPS’ flagship report, ‘Sri Lanka: State of the Economy 2021’. The event featured presentations by Dr Dushni Weerakoon and Dr Asanka Wijesinghe from IPS with expert insights from Dr Missaka Warusawitharana, Financial Economist, Johns Hopkins University, USA. Tharindu Udayanga from IPS moderated the discussion.

Prospects and Possibilities Dr Dushni Weerakoon, Executive Director, IPS

A V-shaped recovery is likely to take shape, but Sri Lanka faces a relatively weak output growth. A critical challenge is to lift the growth rate to, at least, 5-6% and maintain that momentum in the medium term. How investments perform will be a crucial determinant, as the dip in investment was a major driver of output contraction in 2020. With little fiscal space, Sri Lanka relied mostly on monetary policy. There was a surge in direct financing of fiscal spending, and there were efforts to ensure that borrowing costs were kept low via yield-control measures.

Sri Lanka is not so fortunately placed when considering the risks related to large-scale debt monetisation programmes due to high debt levels, elevated exposure to foreign debt with repayments of sizeable amounts in the medium term, and the low reserve stockpiles. With such weak fundamentals, the backbone of debt monetisation programmes is policy credibility. But for the last 18 months, there has been no notable effort to curtail discretionary spending and anchor fiscal plans. Thus, Sri Lanka is reluctant to deal with IMF conditionalities.

Policy measures must address fiscal imbalances through cuts in national spending or raising national income. As the latter takes time, the governments tend to focus on a policy mix to cut national spending that includes tighter budgets allowing interest rates to move with market fundamentals and implementing more flexible exchange rates. The downside is that the growth suffers in the short term with worsening debt ratios. These are politically difficult choices when economic conditions are tight as they are now.

Sri Lanka must firm up its access to foreign capital markets to balance the risks. If Sri Lanka comes to an adjustment on the fiscal front and improves access to capital markets, this will free up the space for a more orderly macroeconomic adjustment. Though the exchange rate may initially overshoot, it can be stabilised over time. This will allow the Central Bank to reverse its debt monetisation and focus on price stability, as that will be an area of concern in the coming months. A policy framework along these lines will provide a more robust environment to support investment and sustain Sri Lanka’s recovery.

Opportunities and Costs Dr Asanka Wijesinghe, Research Economist, IPS

During the pre-pandemic period, there was stabilisation in the rate of globalisation, but Sri Lanka’s openness has continuously declined especially after 2005 due to GDP growth in nontradeable sectors. However, Bangladesh, India, and South Asia, in general, show an increasing trend of openness. COVID-19 led to a deep plunge in the world’s industrial production and trade in 2019. But even after this collapse, it recovered by the beginning of 2021. There is no evidence to show deglobalisation effects due to the pandemic.

When the world trade outlook is taken into consideration, the WTO predicts a pickup in global trade volumes for the year 2022. An IMF database that uses signals emitted by sea vessels also showed an uptick in world trade from the beginning of 2021. Sri Lanka should ready itself to take advantage of trade diversion and investments opportunities the tariffs imposed on China’s textiles by the US, for instance. At present, its global value chain (GVC) participation is low and in fact declined from 2009 to 2019. In contrast countries like Bangladesh, Viet Nam, India and Pakistan showed an increasing trend. He pointed out that the US-China trade war presents opportunities for Sri Lanka to increase both forward and backward GVC participation.

A key challenge is the costly policy of import substitution, resulting in resource misallocation, reduced competitiveness, and possible retaliation from trade partners. Another challenge for Sri Lanka is the potential withdrawal of GSP+ which will be a hard hit on the seafood and textile industries. Sri Lanka should work to secure GSP+, disengage from the ‘anti-trade’ bias, integrate with GVCs, and restructure existing regional trade agreements.

Roads to Recovery

Dr Missaka Warusawitharana, Financial Economist, Johns Hopkins University, USA

Sri Lanka’s growth trajectory has not been in line with its true potential, adversely impacting the well-being of the people. This can be attributed to the low level of productivity growth. Although the manufacturing sector has contributed to growth, it has not demonstrated sufficient productivity that would enable the country to achieve a better output.

Further, the current fiscal difficulties can be pinned to structural imbalances in the country’s budgets that have spanned decades along with different administrations that have been unwilling to make hard choices. In the longer term, budgets must be structured to bring the debt down to a manageable level.

The world economy is moving away from physical goods to a digital-based economy, requiring greater provision of services. Sri Lanka scores well on the Human Development Index with its knowledgeable workforce. The need is to increase productivity by investing more in education and service-producing industries and improve the business environment by reducing institutional barriers.

Link to blog: https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2021/10/15/covid-19-and-the-sri-lankan-economy-policy-choices-and-trade-offs/

Chathurrdhika Yogarajah is a Research Assistant at IPS with research interests in macroeconomics and trade policy. She holds a BSc (Hons) in Agricultural Technology and Management, specialised in Applied Economics and Business Management from the University of Peradeniya with First Class Honours. She is currently reading for her Master’s in Agricultural Economics at the Postgraduate Institute of Agriculture, Peradeniya. (Talk with Chathurrdhika: chathurrdhika@ips.lk)

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Business

India–Sri Lanka Business Forum highlights new momentum in trade, investment and connectivity

Published

5 hours ago

2026/05/23

Thilina Walpola

Dignitaries at the India-Sri Lanka Business Forum

The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, in partnership with the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), organised the India–Sri Lanka Business Forum: Partnering in Sri Lanka’s Growth and Investment and the CII – Ceylon Chamber CEOs Interaction in Mumbai on 13 May 2026. The events brought together senior government representatives, industry leaders, policymakers, and business delegates from India and Sri Lanka to deepen economic engagement and explore new avenues for cooperation across priority sectors.

The discussions reflected growing optimism about India-Sri Lanka economic relations and focused on expanding collaboration in trade, investments, connectivity, tourism, renewable energy, logistics, digital transformation, infrastructure, healthcare, education, manufacturing, and technology.

Participants included Mahishini Colonne, High Commissioner of Sri Lanka to India; Duminda Hulangamuwa, Senior Economic Advisor to the President of Sri Lanka; Dr Rajesh Ravindra Gawande, Secretary (Protocol, FDI, Diaspora & Outreach) and Chief of Protocol, Government of Maharashtra; Ms Priyanga Wickramasinghe, Consul General of Sri Lanka in Mumbai; Krishan Balendra, Chairperson, The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce and Chairperson, John Keells Holdings PLC; Anurag Agarwal, Co-chairman, CII Western Region Sub-committee on International Trade & Investment and Chief Executive Officer, Polycab India Ltd; Vishal Kamat, Chairman, CII Western Region Sub-Committee on Tourism and Hospitality and Executive Director, Kamat Hotels India Ltd; Bingumal Thewarathanthti, Vice Chairperson of the Ceylon Chamber and CEO Standard Chartered Bank Sri Lanka, Vinod Hirdaramani – Deputy Vice Chairperson of the Ceylon Chamber and Chairman Hirdaramani Group, and Shiran Fernando, Secretary General & CEO of the Ceylon Chamber.

Welcoming the delegates, Anurag Agarwal, highlighted the growing momentum in India–Sri Lanka economic relations and the emergence of future-oriented sectors driving bilateral cooperation.

He noted that India and Sri Lanka are at an important phase of economic collaboration, where connectivity, investments, innovation, and sustainable partnerships are creating new opportunities for shared growth. He further emphasised the significant potential for deeper engagement in sectors such as renewable energy, tourism, ICT, logistics, digital services, healthcare, manufacturing, education, and infrastructure.

Business

Proposed oil palm expansion sparks economic and environmental debate

Published

5 hours ago

2026/05/23

Thilina Walpola

Withanage and Kariyawasam speaking to journalists

Move to reconsider the ban on oil palm cultivation has triggered a heated debate among environmentalists, economists and plantation sector stakeholders, with critics warning that replacing rubber plantations with oil palm could weaken one of the country’s most valuable export industries while exposing the nation to long-term environmental and trade risks.

Environmental groups argue that the issue is no longer purely ecological, but a major economic policy question with implications for exports, foreign exchange earnings, rural livelihoods and Sri Lanka’s standing in international markets.

Sri Lanka banned oil palm cultivation in April 2021 through Extraordinary Gazette No. 2222/13 issued by former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, citing environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, soil erosion and threats to water resources.

However, plantation companies are now reportedly lobbying for the reversal of the ban, arguing that oil palm offers higher short-term commercial returns compared to traditional plantation crops.

Environmentalists and policy analysts, however, caution that the long-term economic costs could outweigh the immediate profits.

Hemantha Withanage of the Environmental Justice Centre said Sri Lanka risks undermining a globally competitive rubber industry in pursuit of a commodity that generates comparatively limited national value.

“Rubber remains one of Sri Lanka’s strongest industrial export sectors. Replacing rubber with oil palm would be economically shortsighted because the downstream rubber manufacturing industry generates far greater export earnings, employment and industrial value addition, he said.

Industry statistics reveal a worrying decline in the rubber sector over the past four decades. Rubber cultivation has fallen from 171,126 hectares in 1982 to around 84,000 hectares in 2024, while production has dropped from 133,200 metric tons in 1980 to approximately 69,185 metric tons last year.

Despite shrinking cultivation, the rubber sector continues to deliver significant export revenue. Sri Lanka earned nearly USD 994 million from rubber exports in 2024, while rubber-based manufactured products generated more than USD 2.5 billion in export income.

The country also imports over USD million worth of raw and processed rubber annually to sustain domestic manufacturing demand, highlighting the strategic importance of maintaining local rubber production.

Analysts warn that further reductions in rubber cultivation could increase import dependency, weaken industrial supply chains and place additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

By contrast, Sri Lanka’s palm oil sector contributes relatively little to export earnings. In 2025, Sri Lanka imported 38,210 metric tons of palm oil and 33,696 metric tons of coconut oil, while the value of palm oil imports in 2023 stood at approximately USD 23 million.

Critics argue that oil palm cultivation mainly benefits plantation-level profitability rather than the broader national economy.

Thilak Kariyawasam of FIAN Sri Lanka said the environmental externalities associated with oil palm could eventually translate into significant economic costs.

“The industry’s impact on water resources, soil quality and ecosystems creates hidden financial burdens for the country. Pollution control, water management and biodiversity losses all carry long-term economic consequences that are often ignored in short-term investment calculations, he said.

Environmental groups also raised concerns that Sri Lanka could face reputational risks in export markets if environmentally controversial plantation policies are pursued.

The European Union, one of Sri Lanka’s most important export destinations and the provider of GSP+ trade concessions, has tightened regulations linked to deforestation and environmental sustainability.

By Ifham Nizam

Business

Talawakelle Tea Estates achieves International Organic Certification for Great Western and Logie Teas

Published

5 hours ago

2026/05/23

Thilina Walpola

(Up) The Logie Estate, factory is dedicated exclusively to organic tea production. (Down) Great Western Estate, certified for organic tea production under EU, USDA, and JAS standards

Talawakelle Tea Estates PLC has secured internationally recognised organic certification. A member of the Hayleys Plantations Sector and one of Sri Lanka’s premier Regional Plantation Companies, this milestone enables the Company to market certified organic teas under its renowned Great Western and Logie garden marks.

The certification spans three major global standards: the EU Organic Regulation of the European Union, the National Organic Program (NOP-US) of the United States Department of Agriculture, and the Japanese Agricultural Standards (JAS) for organic products. With this achievement, Talawakelle Tea Estates is now positioned to supply premium organic teas to international markets that demand the highest standards of certification, traceability, and product integrity.

“We are proud to reach this significant milestone after more than four years of dedicated effort to build a fully compliant organic cultivation and processing system that meets stringent international standards. This achievement shows the strength of our partnerships with the Tea Research Institute (TRI) and internationally qualified consultants and, most importantly, the commitment and collaboration of our estate and corporate teams. Together, we have established a robust and sustainable organic management framework that will support our long-term vision.” Talawakelle Tea Estates, Director / CEO, Nishantha Abeysinghe added.

To ensure consistent compliance with international standards, Talawakelle Tea Estates appointed dedicated full-time personnel from its estate teams and corporate sustainability division to oversee and manage every stage of the organic value chain – from cultivation to final manufacture.

The Company has also developed an end-to-end organic cultivation and processing management system covering the full value chain – from field-level practices to final manufacture – ensuring a structured and carefully monitored approach to organic tea production.

To safeguard product integrity and eliminate the risk of cross-contamination with conventional teas, the Company has designated low-risk fields exclusively for organic cultivation and dedicated the Logie factory entirely to organic tea production, minimising the risk of cross-contamination.

Following a series of rigorous audits, Talawakelle Tea Estates has secured full certification and is now set to launch its certified organic tea range globally under the prestigious Great Western and Logie garden marks names bringing together heritage and sustainability.

This achievement marks an important step in the Company’s broader journey to build a more sustainable, nature-based product portfolio in response to growing global demand. By combining strong garden identities with internationally recognised organic standards, Talawakelle Tea Estates continues to strengthen its position in the premium tea segment.