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Climate and food price rise: Extreme weather events triggering unprecedented food inflation

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At 14.23 per cent, India’s wholesale inflation rate in November 2021 was the highest in three decades. It did reduce marginally to 13.56 per cent the next month, according to government data released January 14, 2022. But even that is bad news for the Centre ahead of Assembly elections in five states, including politically significant Uttar Pradesh.

Wholesale price index (WPI) inflation is always a cause of concern as it can raise retail inflation. What’s worse, the price rise has been continuous — December 2021 was the ninth straight month of double-digit percentage increases in the WPI. Experts predict the situation to remain the same through the end of this financial year (March 30, 2022).

High December inflation was unexpected: The government had reduced taxes on fuels — a major add-on to overall inflation. So, why does inflation remain high?

As it emerges, food inflation — particularly the rise in prices of vegetables and a few grains — has been a driver of this episode of overall inflation. India’s wholesale price inflation peaked in November 2021 due to a surge in primary food inflation that hit a 13-month high.

Prices of seasonal vegetables jumped unprecedentedly in many states. And this was due to extreme weather events; and this trend is not limited to India.

Food inflation is rising across the world. On January 7, 2022, the Food and Agricultural Organisation’s (FAO’s) Food Price Index showed that food prices were at a decade-high, with an average rise of 28 percent over the previous year. Adjusting for inflation, the average food prices in the first 11 months of 2021 were at the highest in 46 years.

Abdol Reza Abbassian, senior economist with FAO, attributes the current food price rise primarily to climatic conditions. “While normally high prices are expected to give way to increased production, the high cost of inputs, ongoing global pandemic and ever more uncertain climatic conditions leave little room for optimism about a return to more stable market conditions even in 2022,” Abbassian said.

Between 1956 and 2010, there were nine double-digit inflation episodes. Of these, seven were caused by drought conditions, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In the past six decades, there have been three major episodes of significantly high food prices globally: 1970s, 2007-08 and 2010-14. All these were triggered by weather shocks followed by factors such as increase in oil prices, trade policy interventions and biofuel consumption. The current episode seems to be entirely driven by weather anomalies.

A similar situation caused the last high-price episode in 2019-2020. Rising prices of food items, particularly of vegetables, caused retail inflation to rise to a 68-month high of 7.59 per cent in January 2020.

Warming world, hotter prices

While the inflation figure captured headlines, a crucial analysis of the reasons behind this sustained increase in food prices slipped public attention. Extreme weather events had damaged crops, leading to a collapse of the supply of vegetables at a time of the year when they usually flood the markets.

On the basis of year-on-year comparison, vegetable prices had gone up by 50.19 percent since January 2019. They increased by 45.56 per cent in rural areas and markets during this period and by 59.31 percent in urban areas.

Of the six categories of consumption items used in tabulating the overall inflation figure, food and beverages recorded the highest price rise, thus increasing the overall inflation rate. In 2014, when inflation was an emotive political agenda, RBI pointed out:

One of the traditional explanations for rising food prices has been the supply-side shocks related to weather either because of droughts or floods.

The current global food inflation is driven predominantly by wheat, which reported price rise due to drought and high temperature in major producing countries. In 2021, as various trade reports show, spring wheat production declined by 40 percent in the United States. Russia, the world’s largest exporter of wheat, also harvested less and has now imposed a tax on wheat export to ensure ample stock for domestic consumption. Unusual frosts in Brazil’s coffee bean producing areas in July 2021 have led to a production dip of up to 10 percent.



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Prez seeks Harsha’s help to address CC’s concerns over appointment of AG

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Chairman of the Committee on Public Finance (CoPF), MP Dr. Harsha de Silva, told Parliament yesterday that President Anura Kumara Dissanayake had personally telephoned him in response to a letter highlighting the prolonged delay in appointing an Auditor General, a vacancy that has remained unfilled since 07 December.

Addressing the House, Dr. de Silva said the President had contacted him following the letter he sent, in his capacity as CoPF Chairman, regarding the urgent need to appoint the constitutionally mandated head of the National Audit Office. During the conversation, the President had sought his intervention to inform the Constitutional Council (CC) about approving the names already forwarded by the President for consideration.

Dr. de Silva said the President had inquired whether he could convey the matter to the Constitutional Council after their discussion. He stressed that both the President and the CC must act in cooperation and in strict accordance with the Constitution, warning that institutional deadlock should not undermine constitutional governance.

He also raised concerns over the Speaker’s decision to prevent the letter he sent to the President from being shared with members of the Constitutional Council, stating that this had been done without any valid basis. Dr. de Silva subsequently tabled the letter in Parliament.

Last week, Dr. de Silva formally urged President Dissanayake to immediately fill the Auditor General’s post, warning that the continued vacancy was disrupting key constitutional functions. In his letter, dated 22 December, he pointed out that the absence of an Auditor General undermines Articles 148 and 154 of the Constitution, which vest Parliament with control over public finance.

He said that the vacancy has severely hampered the work of oversight bodies such as the Committee on Public Accounts (COPA) and the Committee on Public Enterprises (COPE), particularly at a time when the country is grappling with a major flood disaster.

As Chair of the Committee responsible for overseeing the National Audit Office, Dr. de Silva stressed that a swift appointment was essential to safeguard transparency, accountability and financial oversight.

In a separate public statement, he warned that Sri Lanka was operating without its constitutionally mandated Chief Auditor at a critical juncture. In a six-point appeal to the President, Dr. de Silva emphasised that an Auditor General must be appointed urgently in the context of ongoing disaster response and reconstruction efforts.

“Given the large number of transactions taking place now with Cyclone Ditwah reconstruction and the yet-to-be-legally-established Rebuilding Sri Lanka Fund, an Auditor General must be appointed urgently,” he said in a post on X.

By Saman Indrajith

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Govt. exploring possibility of converting EPF benefits into private sector pensions

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The NPP government was exploring the feasibility of introducing a regular pension, or annuity scheme, for Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) contributors, Deputy Minister of Labour Mahinda Jayasinghe told Parliament yesterday.

Responding to a question raised by NPP Kalutara District MP Oshani Umanga in the House, Jayasinghe said the government was examining whether EPF benefits, which are currently paid as a lump sum at retirement, could instead be converted into a system that provides regular payments throughout a retiree’s lifetime.

“We are looking at whether it is possible to provide a pension,” Jayasinghe said, stressing that there was no immediate plan to abolish the existing lump-sum payment. “But we are paying greater attention to whether a regular payment can be provided throughout their retired life.”

Jayasinghe noted that the EPF was established as a social security mechanism for private sector employees after retirement and warned that receiving the entire fund in a single installment could place retirees at financial risk, particularly as life expectancy increases.

He also cautioned that interim withdrawals from the EPF undermined its long-term sustainability. “Even the interim payments that are given from time to time undermine the ability to give security at the time of retirement,” he said, distinguishing the EPF from the Employees’ Trust Fund, which provides more frequent interim benefits.

Addressing concerns over early withdrawals, the Deputy Minister explained that contributors have been allowed to withdraw up to 30 percent of their EPF balance since 2015, with a further 20 percent permitted after 10 years, subject to specific conditions and documentary proof.

Of 744 applications received for such withdrawals, 702 had been approved, he said.

The proposed shift towards an annuity-based system comes amid broader concerns over Sri Lanka’s ageing population and pressures on retirement financing. While state sector employees receive pensions funded by taxpayers, including EPF contributors, the EPF itself has been facing growing strain as it is also used to finance budget deficits.

Jayasinghe said the government’s focus was to formulate a mechanism that would ensure long-term income security for private sector employees, placing them on a footing closer to a pension scheme rather than a one-time retirement payout.

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Sajith accuses govt. of exacerbating people’s suffering to please IMF

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Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa yesterday strongly criticised proposals to increase electricity tariffs, warning that the move would deepen the hardships faced by the public already reeling from disasters and rising fuel costs.

Premadasa, who is also the leader of the SJB, told Parliament that the government was considering an electricity price hike at a time when people were struggling to recover from recent crises, while coping with higher fuel prices. He accused the administration of acting contrary to its own election pledges and the expectations of suffering people.

Making a special statement, the Opposition Leader recalled that the government had come to power promising to reduce electricity bills by 30 percent, within three years, by shifting from fuel-based power generation to cheaper renewable sources, such as solar, wind and hydropower. Instead, he said, those commitments had been abandoned.

Premadasa pointed out that the CEB has sought approval from the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) for an 11.57 per cent tariff increase for the first quarter of 2026 to cover its losses. He questioned whether the government had assessed the impact of such an increase on low- and middle-income households, as well as state institutions.

He also asked why the government had failed to honour its promise to cut electricity tariffs by one-third through a transparent pricing mechanism.

The Opposition Leader further criticised the limited time allocated for public consultations on the proposed new energy policy, saying it was unfair and should be extended, particularly given the prevailing national crises.

Premadasa warned that the removal of competitive tariff structures for industries would be unjust to large-scale consumers using more than five million units of electricity, and called for comparative reports before any subsidies are withdrawn.

He added that despite earlier assurances to reduce electricity bills by 33 percent, the government has once again increased fuel prices, even as global fuel prices decline, continuing, what he described as, a pattern of broken election promises.

Accusing the government of being constrained by International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditions, Premadasa said the simultaneous increases in fuel and electricity prices were exacerbating the economic burden on the public.

By Saman Indrajith

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