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Climate and food price rise: Extreme weather events triggering unprecedented food inflation

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At 14.23 per cent, India’s wholesale inflation rate in November 2021 was the highest in three decades. It did reduce marginally to 13.56 per cent the next month, according to government data released January 14, 2022. But even that is bad news for the Centre ahead of Assembly elections in five states, including politically significant Uttar Pradesh.

Wholesale price index (WPI) inflation is always a cause of concern as it can raise retail inflation. What’s worse, the price rise has been continuous — December 2021 was the ninth straight month of double-digit percentage increases in the WPI. Experts predict the situation to remain the same through the end of this financial year (March 30, 2022).

High December inflation was unexpected: The government had reduced taxes on fuels — a major add-on to overall inflation. So, why does inflation remain high?

As it emerges, food inflation — particularly the rise in prices of vegetables and a few grains — has been a driver of this episode of overall inflation. India’s wholesale price inflation peaked in November 2021 due to a surge in primary food inflation that hit a 13-month high.

Prices of seasonal vegetables jumped unprecedentedly in many states. And this was due to extreme weather events; and this trend is not limited to India.

Food inflation is rising across the world. On January 7, 2022, the Food and Agricultural Organisation’s (FAO’s) Food Price Index showed that food prices were at a decade-high, with an average rise of 28 percent over the previous year. Adjusting for inflation, the average food prices in the first 11 months of 2021 were at the highest in 46 years.

Abdol Reza Abbassian, senior economist with FAO, attributes the current food price rise primarily to climatic conditions. “While normally high prices are expected to give way to increased production, the high cost of inputs, ongoing global pandemic and ever more uncertain climatic conditions leave little room for optimism about a return to more stable market conditions even in 2022,” Abbassian said.

Between 1956 and 2010, there were nine double-digit inflation episodes. Of these, seven were caused by drought conditions, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In the past six decades, there have been three major episodes of significantly high food prices globally: 1970s, 2007-08 and 2010-14. All these were triggered by weather shocks followed by factors such as increase in oil prices, trade policy interventions and biofuel consumption. The current episode seems to be entirely driven by weather anomalies.

A similar situation caused the last high-price episode in 2019-2020. Rising prices of food items, particularly of vegetables, caused retail inflation to rise to a 68-month high of 7.59 per cent in January 2020.

Warming world, hotter prices

While the inflation figure captured headlines, a crucial analysis of the reasons behind this sustained increase in food prices slipped public attention. Extreme weather events had damaged crops, leading to a collapse of the supply of vegetables at a time of the year when they usually flood the markets.

On the basis of year-on-year comparison, vegetable prices had gone up by 50.19 percent since January 2019. They increased by 45.56 per cent in rural areas and markets during this period and by 59.31 percent in urban areas.

Of the six categories of consumption items used in tabulating the overall inflation figure, food and beverages recorded the highest price rise, thus increasing the overall inflation rate. In 2014, when inflation was an emotive political agenda, RBI pointed out:

One of the traditional explanations for rising food prices has been the supply-side shocks related to weather either because of droughts or floods.

The current global food inflation is driven predominantly by wheat, which reported price rise due to drought and high temperature in major producing countries. In 2021, as various trade reports show, spring wheat production declined by 40 percent in the United States. Russia, the world’s largest exporter of wheat, also harvested less and has now imposed a tax on wheat export to ensure ample stock for domestic consumption. Unusual frosts in Brazil’s coffee bean producing areas in July 2021 have led to a production dip of up to 10 percent.



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Final rites of veteran actress Malani Fonseka to be held with state honours on Monday, 26th May at Independence Square

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The final rites of veteran actress and iconic queen of Sri Lankan cinema,  Malani Fonseka, will be held with state honours on Monday, 26th May 2025, at the Independence Square.

A discussion regarding the arrangements for the state funeral was held this afternoon (24) at the Presidential Secretariat, under the leadership of Minister of Buddhasasana, Religious and Cultural Affairs, Dr. H. M. Sunil Senevi and Secretary to the President Dr. Nandika Sanath Kumanayake.

The remains of Mrs. Malani Fonseka will be placed at the Tharangani Hall of the National Film Corporation on Sunday (25) and the funeral will take place on Monday evening (26) at Independence Square, with full state honours.

Extensive discussions were held regarding the necessary arrangements to provide appropriate facilities for the public arriving from across the country to pay their final respects.

The meeting was  attended by Senior Additional Secretary to the President Roshan Gamage, Secretary to the Ministry of Public Administration  S. Aloka Bandara, Secretary to the Ministry of Buddhasasana, Religious and Cultural Affairs  Prince Senadheera, along with members of Mrs. Malani Fonseka’s family, fellow artistes and other dignitaries.

[PMD]

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Government is taking necessary action to enhance the facilities and professional standard within the healthcare sector – PM

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Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya stated that the government is taking necessary action to enhance the facilities and professional standard within the healthcare sector, and that expecting a compassionate discharge of duties from the nurses and midwives.

Prime Minister made these remarks while addressing a ceremony held today (24) at Temple Trees to deliver letters of appointment to 3,147 nurses in the health sector.

Addressing the event, the Prime Minister stated:

“I extend my best wishes to all those who embark on a new journey in life joining the public service as nurses today. Among the many professions in the world, you are entering one of the most significant and most respected.

Nursing is more than a job; it is a humanitarian service essential to the public. In times of vulnerability, people look to you for safety and care.

Beyond medicine, you hold a powerful impact on healing people with your smile, way of speaking, compassion, and the manner in which you care.

You provide your service with great dedication, involving both physical and mental commitment. Often, you do not have the chance to sit or even sleep adequately. These sacrifices affect your personal life including the family affairs, relationships with relatives and friends. We understand that these sacrifices affect not only you but your loved ones as well.

I take this opportunity to thank you for your service, which you continue to offer with such commitment.

Following the policy of our government, ’A Prosperous Country, a Beautiful Life’, our primary goal is to bring this vision to all citizens. A beautiful life begins with healthy citizens, not only physically but mentally as well. To ensure this, the government is committed to strengthening the healthcare sector and providing the necessary facilities and training to professionals.

There is a high demand for nurses both locally and internationally. We are working to provide appropriate salaries, necessary promotions, and training opportunities to support your professional growth. It is also essential to create a safe and positive working environment, for both physical and mental well-being of the employees. I am confident that the respective Minister and the Ministry will continue to intervene to ensure that these needs are met.

The nursing profession is mostly comprised of women. In our society, a woman is often expected to carry many responsibilities in form of a wife, a mother, and being a nurse does not exempt you from these duties. As a government, we are sensitive to such areas of the profession, and it is also our responsibility to create an environment where you can live a fulfilling personal life.

The event was attended by Minister of Health and Mass Media, Dr. Nalinda Jayatissa, Secretary to the Ministry of Health, Specialist Dr. Anil Jasinghe, along with Additional Secretaries, officials, and staff of the Ministry of Health.

[Prime Minister’s Media Division]

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Prime Minister meets with U.S. Ambassador and USAID delegation to discuss future of development cooperation

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Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya, met  Ms. Julie J. Chung, U.S. Ambassador to Sri Lanka, and Ms. Maureen Hsia, Acting Mission Director and Programme Office Director for USAID Sri Lanka and Maldives at the Parliament recently. The meeting focused on the evolving framework of U.S. foreign assistance to Sri Lanka and potential avenues for sustained cooperation.

The US delegation briefed the Prime Minister on the recent three-month moratorium imposed on all foreign assistance by the United States, pending a comprehensive review by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Discussions centered on the implications of this decision, particularly its potential impact on key development initiatives such as the women’s shelter project, and broader humanitarian concerns if current support mechanisms are disrupted.

Both parties acknowledged the critical role of the United States as a global leader in development and emphasized the importance of continuing bilateral collaboration. The Prime Minister welcomed the United States’ commitment to identifying alternative modalities to ensure uninterrupted support for Sri Lanka’s development priorities. In addition, the meeting addressed tariff negotiations, recognizing their relevance in bolstering economic resilience and supporting the country’s long-term growth trajectory.

Also in attendance were Ms. Angelina Hermon, Acting Director of the Office of Governance and Vulnerable Populations, and Ms. Nirmi Vitharana, Project Management Specialist from the Office of Economic Growth. Representing the Government of Sri Lanka were Pradeep Saputhanthri, Secretary to the Prime Minister; Ms. Sagarika Bogahawatta, Additional Secretary to the Prime Minister; and Ms. Pramuditha Munasinghe, Director of the North America Division at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

[Prime Minister’s Media Division]

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