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Climate and food price rise: Extreme weather events triggering unprecedented food inflation

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4 years ago

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At 14.23 per cent, India’s wholesale inflation rate in November 2021 was the highest in three decades. It did reduce marginally to 13.56 per cent the next month, according to government data released January 14, 2022. But even that is bad news for the Centre ahead of Assembly elections in five states, including politically significant Uttar Pradesh.

Wholesale price index (WPI) inflation is always a cause of concern as it can raise retail inflation. What’s worse, the price rise has been continuous — December 2021 was the ninth straight month of double-digit percentage increases in the WPI. Experts predict the situation to remain the same through the end of this financial year (March 30, 2022).

High December inflation was unexpected: The government had reduced taxes on fuels — a major add-on to overall inflation. So, why does inflation remain high?

As it emerges, food inflation — particularly the rise in prices of vegetables and a few grains — has been a driver of this episode of overall inflation. India’s wholesale price inflation peaked in November 2021 due to a surge in primary food inflation that hit a 13-month high.

Prices of seasonal vegetables jumped unprecedentedly in many states. And this was due to extreme weather events; and this trend is not limited to India.

Food inflation is rising across the world. On January 7, 2022, the Food and Agricultural Organisation’s (FAO’s) Food Price Index showed that food prices were at a decade-high, with an average rise of 28 percent over the previous year. Adjusting for inflation, the average food prices in the first 11 months of 2021 were at the highest in 46 years.

Abdol Reza Abbassian, senior economist with FAO, attributes the current food price rise primarily to climatic conditions. “While normally high prices are expected to give way to increased production, the high cost of inputs, ongoing global pandemic and ever more uncertain climatic conditions leave little room for optimism about a return to more stable market conditions even in 2022,” Abbassian said.

Between 1956 and 2010, there were nine double-digit inflation episodes. Of these, seven were caused by drought conditions, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In the past six decades, there have been three major episodes of significantly high food prices globally: 1970s, 2007-08 and 2010-14. All these were triggered by weather shocks followed by factors such as increase in oil prices, trade policy interventions and biofuel consumption. The current episode seems to be entirely driven by weather anomalies.

A similar situation caused the last high-price episode in 2019-2020. Rising prices of food items, particularly of vegetables, caused retail inflation to rise to a 68-month high of 7.59 per cent in January 2020.

Warming world, hotter prices

While the inflation figure captured headlines, a crucial analysis of the reasons behind this sustained increase in food prices slipped public attention. Extreme weather events had damaged crops, leading to a collapse of the supply of vegetables at a time of the year when they usually flood the markets.

On the basis of year-on-year comparison, vegetable prices had gone up by 50.19 percent since January 2019. They increased by 45.56 per cent in rural areas and markets during this period and by 59.31 percent in urban areas.

Of the six categories of consumption items used in tabulating the overall inflation figure, food and beverages recorded the highest price rise, thus increasing the overall inflation rate. In 2014, when inflation was an emotive political agenda, RBI pointed out:

One of the traditional explanations for rising food prices has been the supply-side shocks related to weather either because of droughts or floods.

The current global food inflation is driven predominantly by wheat, which reported price rise due to drought and high temperature in major producing countries. In 2021, as various trade reports show, spring wheat production declined by 40 percent in the United States. Russia, the world’s largest exporter of wheat, also harvested less and has now imposed a tax on wheat export to ensure ample stock for domestic consumption. Unusual frosts in Brazil’s coffee bean producing areas in July 2021 have led to a production dip of up to 10 percent.


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Indonesian Navy Sailing Ship KRI BIMA SUCI – 945 concludes official goodwill visit to Sri Lanka

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2026/04/19

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The Indonesian Navy Sailing Ship KRI BIMA SUCI – 945 departed the island on 18 Apr 2026, marking the successful completion of her official goodwill visit.

The ship was accorded a formal farewell by the Sri Lanka Navy in accordance with naval traditions at the Port of Colombo.

The visit also served as a valuable educational platform, as officer under-trainees and other personnel of the Sri Lanka Navy had the opportunity to conduct an observational
tour of the sailing vessel. This exchange of knowledge was complemented by a series of events designed to foster professional and social bonds.

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Heat Index at Caution Level in the Northern, North-central, North-western, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Eastern and Southern provinces and in Monaragala district

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6 hours ago

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2026/04/19

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Warm Weather Advisory
Issued by the Natural Hazards Early Warning Centre
Issued at 3.30 p.m. on 18 April 2026, valid for 19 April 2026

The Heat index, the temperature felt on human body is likely to increase up to ‘Caution level’ at some places in the Northern, North-central, North-western, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Eastern
and Southern provinces and in Monaragala district.

The Heat Index Forecast is calculated by using relative humidity and maximum temperature and this is the condition that is felt on your body. This is not the forecast of maximum temperature. It is generated by the Department of Meteorology for the next day period and prepared by using global numerical weather prediction model data.


Effect of the heat index on human body is mentioned in the above table and it is prepared on the advice of the Ministry of Health and Indigenous Medical Services.

ACTION REQUIRED
Job sites: Stay hydrated and takes breaks in the shade as often as possible.
Indoors: Check up on the elderly and the sick.
Vehicles: Never leave children unattended.
Outdoors: Limit strenuous outdoor activities, find shade and stay hydrated.
Dress: Wear lightweight and white or light-colored clothing.

Note:
In addition, please refer to advisories issued by the Disaster Preparedness & Response Division, Ministry of Health in this regard as well. For further clarifications please contact 011-7446491.

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‘Agents of the devil’ seeking to block Easter probe, Cardinal warns

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6 hours ago

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2026/04/19

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Warning that “agents of the devil who wish to hide the truth behind a wall of political posturing” were attempting to obstruct investigations into the Easter Sunday terror attacks, the Catholic Church has called for intensified public support and prayer to ensure justice for victims.

In a message issued ahead of the seventh anniversary of the April 21, 2019 bombings, Colombo Archbishop Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith said there were ongoing efforts by various forces to derail credible inquiries into the coordinated attacks that claimed 278 lives and left nearly 500 injured.

The statement noted that many of those killed had been attending Easter Sunday Mass when suicide bombers struck churches, including St. Anthony’s Shrine, Kochchikade, St. Sebastian’s Church, Katuwapitiya, and Zion Church, Batticaloa, causing widespread devastation and long-term suffering among survivors.

Seven years on, the Caridnal said, critical questions remain unanswered, including who masterminded the attacks, their motives, and why places of worship were targeted on Christianity’s most sacred day.

Full text of Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith’s message: On 21st April 2026, the Church in Sri Lanka will be commemorating the 7th Anniversary of the Easter Sunday bomb blasts, which killed 278 of our fellow human beings and brethren in the faith in the most brutal fashion. Most of these people had come to our Churches for Easter Sunday Masses and prayer services. Many families were rendered destitute. Nearly 500 people were injured and some of them carry life long disabilities, suffering from the after effects of these blasts. St. Anthony’s Church Kochchikade and St. Sebastian’s Church Katuwapitiya of the Catholic community and the Zion Church in Batticaloa were, quasi totally destroyed. The economy of the country suffered immensely with untold problems affecting many families, ever since then. However much we try to console the families of these victims, it is something that we humans are unable to achieve as only the Lord can truly console them.

Besides, we still do not know who murdered these people and caused so much of suffering to many others, and why and for what purpose they chose our Churches on a day that was most sacred to us to organize these attacks. After repeated pleas by the Catholic Church, now at last, the incumbent government and the security establishment, seem to be holding a credible inquiry into this episode of mass murder in order to find out who was really behind it.

And there are many forces actively seeking to obstruct these inquiries and divert the direction of the inquiry in an aimless fashion in order to hide the truth behind these attacks. They are nothing but the agents of the devil who wish to hide the truth behind a wall of political posturing. We need to storm Heaven and ask the Lord to strengthen the hands of the investigators to find out what really happened and who was behind this mass murder as well as why it was done to innocent people who had nothing to do with politics.

Hence, I call upon all of you to kindly storm Heaven with your prayers calling upon the Lord to help us find out what really happened that most tragic day. And so, I am declaring Sunday, the 19th of April 2026, as a special day of prayer for this purpose. I shall be most grateful to every one of you, beloved brethren, if you could recite special prayers in all the parishes of the Archdiocese at Sunday Mass on that day and offer prayers at home too for the success of these investigations. The special prayer for truth and justice for the victims of the bomb attacks, already approved by the Catholic Bishops’ Conference, could also be recited. I call upon all our Catholic devotees to join us in this effort.

Let us stand together firmly behind the efforts to find out the truth. Let us not be deceived by attempts of different people to hide the truth or divert attention in all kinds of directions in order to confuse the public.

May the Blessed Mother, our Lady of Lanka, intercede for us in this most important matter.

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