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BRICS, SCO, and the Global South: Is Sri Lanka interested?

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Leaders who gathered in Tianjin, China, for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit 2025

The lack of high-level representation from Sri Lanka at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin (31 August – 01 September) and the eightieth anniversary of China’s victory in the War Against Japanese Aggression and the World Antifascist War (03 September) was a missed opportunity to re-orient the country’s foreign policy and position it at the heart of a new mood in the Global South.

This absence was arguably the biggest foreign policy misstep since the newly elected National Peoples Power (NPP) failed to send a high-level representative to the BRICS summit in Kazan, back in October 2024. During a discussion at the Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies, in May, Russian Ambassador to Sri Lanka, Levan Dzhagaryan, recounted how he personally handed over a letter of invitation to the Kazan summit, from Russian President Vladimir Putin, to President Anura Kumar Dissanayake. In response to a question about whether Sri Lanka would ever join BRICS, Dzhagaryan candidly said that the Sri Lankan side had to take practical steps to make it happen, “Are you interested? I don’t think so”.

This lack of interest in external affairs could itself be read as a reflection of total inertia in domestic affairs. A programmatic system change necessarily requires an external component – to break away from US-led neoliberal globalisation (and its cocktail of debt, austerity, de-industrialisation, and hybrid wars) necessitates forging an alternative framework through South-South cooperation (with suitable institutional alternatives for finance, technology transfers, and regional security). If countries as vast in geography, population, and natural resources as Brazil and South Africa see a need for such processes, Sri Lanka can be no exception.

Security and Development

Starting out as the ‘Shanghai Five’ in 1996 (comprising China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan), the SCO was established in 2001 and has since grown to encompass 10 member states, including India, Pakistan, and Iran. Sri Lanka gained the status of dialogue partner in 2010 (ahead of South Asian peers Nepal and the Maldives), but has showed no effort or interest in upgrading to full membership since. The SCO is part of a new process of regionalism and multilateralism driven primarily by and for the Global South. It has been successful in removing US military bases in Central Asia, an example that should be learned from as the Indian Ocean remains host to US military bases in the occupied Chagos Islands – in violation of the Sri Lanka-sponsored United Nations General Assembly Resolution which declared the Indian Ocean as a Zone of Peace in 1971.

More pragmatically, the member states of the SCO are economic powerhouses in terms of their combined pool of natural resources, technology, and markets. Given the fact that Sri Lanka now has one of the highest electricity tariff rates in South Asia, and that the majority of the population endured excruciating 13-hour blackouts in 2022, the complementary between a small energy-dependent country and an organisation of countries encompassing huge potential for energy in various forms (from oil and gas to renewables to nuclear power) is obvious. During the summit in Tianjin, China pledged to establish platforms for cooperation in energy, green industry, and the digital economy – all areas where Sri Lanka lags behind technologically and could use a boost. Meanwhile, the announcement of an SCO development bank in Tianjin was another positive step in the process of building multilateral financing mechanisms outside of the Global North-dominated framework.

Most interestingly, the summit in Tianjin became the stage on which India-China relations (the most significant bilateral relationship in the world for Sri Lanka) thawed. Much of Sri Lanka’s developmental potential depends on these two countries getting along and the ability of Sri Lankan leaders and diplomats to navigate this triangular dynamic with skill and sensitivity. From this perspective alone, Sri Lanka’s absence at the Tianjin summit was a loss.

Sovereignty and Multipolarity

Twenty-six world leaders were present at China’s Victory Day celebrations in Beijing, including the leaders of communist countries, like the DPRK, Vietnam, Laos and Cuba. However, this was by no means an exclusively communist event. From non-communist Southeast Asia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Singapore were represented. From South Asia, SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) members Nepal, Pakistan and the Maldives were represented.

Sri Lanka should have been there for various reasons. First, because of our close historical relationship with China: Sri Lanka was China’s first trading partner outside the communist bloc (the Rubber-Rice pact of 1952 helped China bypass a crippling US embargo) and was an early signatory and beneficiary of China’s the Belt and Road Initiative. Meanwhile, China is Sri Lanka’s biggest bilateral lender and was also the first to enter into a debt restructuring agreement after the country defaulted on its external debts.

Second, it would have provided President Dissanayake an opportunity to position Sri Lanka (and his administration) among major powers of the Global South, particularly at a time when the US has doubled down on unilateralism and protectionism. For a country that was brought to its knees by debt dependency, poverty, and brain drain – and where the policy prescriptions of the IMF remain deeply unpopular – the image of the President Dissanayake in Beijing would at the very least have provided a boost to morale.

China’s Victory Day celebrations occur in the context of ongoing efforts in the Global North to distort history and downplay the contributions of China and the former Soviet Union in eradicating the threat of Nazism and fascism, thereby the opening the door to a wave of national liberation movements (of which Sri Lanka, too, was a beneficiary). Over 20 million Chinese people died during the World Anti-Fascist War, a death toll second only to the Soviet Union’s 27 million. It is worth noting that Imperial Japan is the only foreign force that has actually bombed Sri Lanka in modern times (the Easter Sunday raid on Colombo and Trincomalee of 05 April 1942) – China’s victory against the Japanese helped ensure that Sri Lanka would not suffer the same fate as the Koreans, Indonesians, and Burmese did under the Japanese.

A Short-Sighted Calculation

It is likely that the calculation at play in these strategic absences is that too bold a move in the international arena would lead to retaliation by the US. In July, President Trump threatened to apply a 100 percent tariff on BRICS countries if they attempted to de-dollarise. The concessions that led to US tariffs on Sri Lanka declining from an initial 44 percent to 20 percent are not known. One can only speculate that staying well away from challenges to US-dominance of the global order were factored in.

But such a calculus is short-sighted. The Global North is no longer a growing economy and reliable export destination. Similarly, the specific economic activities that were allocated to Sri Lanka in the international division of labour have run their course. There is little growth potential or dynamism left in exporting garments to Europe and North America – a reorientation is necessary and inevitable. Chinese Ambassador Qi Zhenhong said it best during a briefing with local journalists and researchers before the SCO summit: “don’t be too happy that the tariff you get is lower than your neighbour’s today, it is still higher than it was yesterday”.

Just as Narendra Modi’s India found itself facing a 50 percent tariff in August, despite deepening security ties and signing a 10-year defence cooperative framework with the US, just months earlier, it is only a matter of time before Sri Lanka, too, will have to deal with the late Henry Kissinger’s warning: “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”

Domestic Constraint, External Restraint

Political developments, since 2022, have objectively constrained domestic policy space for any alternative to neoliberalism. Defaulting on external debt locked Sri Lanka into an austere embrace with IMF as there is no other international institution to mediate between a debtor nation and its creditors. The 2023 Supreme Court verdict, charging members of the former SLPP government with ‘economic mismanagement,’ marked an unprecedented intrusion of the judiciary (a traditionally conservative force in Sri Lanka and most former British colonies) into the field of economic policy – the chilling effect of this judgement is yet to be fully appreciated. Add to this the slew of legislation during the interim Presidency of Ranil Wickremesinghe – the Central Bank Act which constrains monetary policy autonomy, the Public Financial Management Act which constrains fiscal policy autonomy, and the Economic Transformation Act stand out as examples.

That the NPP functions within this constrained policy space is incontestable. Yet even within such constraints there are always possibilities. The most obviously space for manoeuvring is in the churning global order and processes like the BRICS and SCO. Governments labelled as ‘progressive’ or ‘populist’ coming to power and continuing along a preset path of neoliberalism is nothing new. What is unusual is for such a government to pay so little attention to creating the external conditions for a break from neoliberal globalisation. Judging by the way it conducts foreign policy, Sri Lanka seems to have forgotten that it has been subject to 520 years of colonialism and neo-colonialism (the Portuguese arrived here in 1505), and that its historical destiny is tied with the Global South.

(Shiran Illanperuma is a researcher at Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research and a co-editor of Wenhua Zongheng: A Journal of Contemporary Chinese Thought. He is also a co-convenor of the Asia Progress Forum, which can be contacted at asiaprogressforum@gmail.com).

by Shiran Illanperuma



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Counting cats, naming giants: Inside the unofficial science redefining Sri Lanka’s Leopards and Tuskers

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For decades, Sri Lanka’s leopard numbers have been debated, estimated, and contested, often based on assumptions few outside academic circles ever questioned.

One of the most fundamental was that a leopard’s spots never change. That belief, long accepted as scientific fact, began to unravel not in a laboratory or lecture hall, but through thousands of photographs taken patiently in the wilds of Yala. At the centre of that quiet disruption stands Milinda Wattegedara.

Sri Lanka’s wilderness has always inspired photographers. Far fewer, however, have transformed photography into a data-driven challenge to established conservation science. Wattegedara—an MBA graduate by training and a wildlife researcher by pursuit—has done precisely that, building one of the most comprehensive independent identification databases of leopards and tuskers in the country.

“I consider myself privileged to have been born and raised in Sri Lanka,” Wattegedara says. “This island is extraordinary in its biodiversity. But admiration alone doesn’t protect wildlife. Accuracy does.”

Raised in Kandy, and educated at Kingswood College, where he captained cricket teams, up to the First XI, Wattegedara’s early years were shaped by discipline and long hours of practice—traits that would later define his approach to field research.

Though his formal education culminated in a Master’s degree in Business Administration from Cardiff Metropolitan University, his professional life gradually shifted toward Sri Lanka’s forests, grasslands, and coastal fringes.

From childhood, two species held his attention: the Sri Lankan leopard and the Asian elephant tusker. Both are icons. Both are elusive. And both, he argues, have been inadequately understood.

His response was methodical. Using high-resolution photography, Wattegedara began documenting individual animals, focusing on repeat sightings, behavioural traits, territorial ranges, and physical markers.

This effort formalised into two platforms—Yala Leopard Diary and Wild Tuskers of Sri Lanka—which function today as tightly moderated research communities rather than casual social media pages.

“My goal was never popularity,” he explains. “It was reliability. Every identification had to stand scrutiny.”

The results are difficult to dismiss. Through collaborative verification and long-term monitoring, his teams have identified over 200 individual leopards across Yala and Kumana National Parks and 280 tuskers across Sri Lanka.

Each animal—whether Jessica YF52 patrolling Mahaseelawa beach or Mahasen T037, the longest tusker bearer recorded in the wild—is catalogued with photographic evidence and movement history.

It was within this growing body of data that a critical inconsistency emerged.

“As injuries accumulated over time, we noticed subtle but consistent changes in rosette and spot patterns,” Wattegedara says. “This directly contradicted the assumption that these markings remain unchanged for life.”

That observation, later corroborated through structured analysis, had serious implications. If leopards were being identified using a limited set of spot references, population estimates risked duplication and inflation.

The findings led to the development of the Multipoint Leopard Identification Method, now internationally published, which uses multiple reference points rather than fixed pattern assumptions. “This wasn’t about academic debate,” Wattegedara notes. “It was about ensuring we weren’t miscounting an endangered species.”

The implications extend beyond Sri Lanka. Overestimated populations can lead to reduced protection, misplaced policy decisions, and weakened conservation urgency.

Yet much of this work has occurred outside formal state institutions.

“There’s a misconception that meaningful research only comes from official channels,” Wattegedara says. “But conservation gaps don’t wait for bureaucracy.”

That philosophy informed his role as co-founder of the Yala Leopard Centre, the world’s first facility dedicated solely to leopard education and identification. The Centre serves as a bridge between researchers, wildlife enthusiasts, and the general public, offering access to verified knowledge rather than speculation.

In a further step toward transparency, Artificial Intelligence has been introduced for automatic leopard identification, freely accessible via the Centre and the Yala Leopard Diary website. “Technology allows consistency,” he explains. “And consistency is everything in long-term studies.”

His work with tuskers mirrors the same precision. From Minneriya to Galgamuwa, Udawalawe to Kala Wewa, Wattegedara has documented generations of bull elephants—Arjuna T008, Kawanthissa T075, Aravinda T112—not merely as photographic subjects, but as individuals with lineage, temperament, and territory.

This depth of observation has also earned him recognition in wildlife photography, including top honours from the Photographic Society of Sri Lanka and accolades from Sanctuary Asia’s Call of the Wild. Still, he is quick to downplay awards.

“Photographs are only valuable if they contribute to understanding,” he says.

Today, Wattegedara’s co-authored identification guides on Yala leopards and Kala Wewa tuskers are increasingly referenced by researchers and field naturalists alike. His work challenges a long-standing divide between citizen science and formal research.

“Wildlife doesn’t care who publishes first,” he reflects. “It only responds to how accurately we observe it.”

In an era when Sri Lanka’s protected areas face mounting pressure—from tourism, infrastructure, and climate stress—the question of who counts wildlife, and how, has never been more urgent.

By insisting on precision, patience, and proof, Milinda Wattegedara has quietly reframed that conversation—one leopard, one tusker, and one verified photograph at a time.

By Ifham Nizam ✍️

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AI in Schools: Preparing the Nation for the Next Technological Leap

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This summary document is based on an exemplary webinar conducted by the Bandaranaike Academy for Leadership & Public Policy ((https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqZGjlaMC08). I participated in the session, which featured multiple speakers with exceptional knowledge and experience who discussed various aspects of incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) into the education system and other sectors.

There was strong consensus that this issue must be addressed early, before the nation becomes vulnerable to external actors seeking to exploit AI for their own advantage. Given her educational background, the Education Minister—and the Prime Minister—are likely to be fully aware of this need. This article is intended to support ongoing efforts in educational reform, including the introduction of AI education in schools for those institutions willing to adopt it.

Artificial intelligence is no longer a futuristic concept. Today, it processes vast amounts of global data and makes calculated decisions, often to the benefit of its creators. However, most users remain unaware of the information AI gathers or the extent of its influence on decision-making. Experts warn that without informed and responsible use, nations risk becoming increasingly vulnerable to external forces that may exploit AI.

The Need for Immediate Action

AI is evolving rapidly, leaving traditional educational models struggling to keep pace. By the time new curricula are finalised, they risk becoming outdated, leaving both students and teachers behind. Experts advocate immediate government-led initiatives, including pilot AI education programs in willing schools and nationwide teacher training.

“AI is already with us,” experts note. “We must ensure our nation is on this ‘AI bus’—unlike past technological revolutions, such as IT, microchips, and nanotechnology, which we were slow to embrace.”

Training Teachers and Students

Equipping teachers to introduce AI, at least at the secondary school level, is a crucial first step. AI can enhance creativity, summarise materials, generate lesson plans, provide personalised learning experiences, and even support administrative tasks. Our neighbouring country, India, has already begun this process.

Current data show that student use of AI far exceeds that of instructors—a gap that must be addressed to prevent misuse and educational malpractice. Specialists recommend piloting AI courses as electives, gathering feedback, and continuously refining the curriculum to prepare students for an AI-driven future.

Benefits of AI in Education

AI in schools offers numerous advantages:

· Fosters critical thinking, creativity, and problem-solving skills

· Enhances digital literacy and ethical awareness

· Bridges the digital divide by promoting equitable AI literacy

· Supports interdisciplinary learning in medicine, climate science, and linguistics

· Provides personalised feedback and learning experiences

· Assists students with disabilities through adaptive technologies like text-to-speech and visual recognition

AI can also automate administrative tasks, freeing teachers to focus on student engagement and social-emotional development—a key factor in academic success.

Risks and Challenges

Despite its potential, AI presents challenges:

· Data privacy concerns and misuse of personal information

· Over-reliance on technology, reducing teacher-student interactions

· Algorithmic biases affecting educational outcomes

· Increased opportunities for academic dishonesty if assessments rely on rote memorisation

Experts emphasise understanding these risks to ensure the responsible and ethical use of AI.

Global and Local Perspectives

In India, the Central Board of Secondary Education plans to introduce AI and computational thinking from Grades 3 to 12 by 2026. Sri Lanka faces a similar challenge. Many university students and academics already rely on AI, highlighting the urgent need for a structured yet rapidly evolving national curriculum that incorporates AI responsibly.

The Way Forward

Experts urge swift action:

· Launch pilot programs in select schools immediately.

· Provide teacher training and seed funding to participating educational institutions.

· Engage universities to develop short AI and innovation training programs.

“Waiting for others to lead risks leaving us behind,” experts warn. “It’s time to embrace AI thoughtfully, responsibly, and inclusively—ensuring the whole nation benefits from its opportunities.”

As AI reshapes our world, introducing it in schools is not merely an educational initiative—it is a national imperative.

BY Chula Goonasekera ✍️
on behalf of LEADS forum admin@srilankaleads.com

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The Paradox of Trump Power: Contested Authoritarian at Home, Uncontested Bully Abroad

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Protests and a vigil have been held in Minneapolis, Minnesota, where the shooting of Renee Nicole Good occurred on Wednesday (photo courtesy BBC)

The Trump paradox is easily explained at one level. The US President unleashes American superpower and tariff power abroad with impunity and without contestation. But he cannot exercise unconstitutional executive power including tariff power without checks and challenges within America. No American President after World War II has exercised his authority overseas so brazenly and without any congressional referral as Donald Trump is getting accustomed to doing now. And no American President in history has benefited from a pliant Congress and an equally pliant Supreme Court as has Donald Trump in his second term as president.

Yet he is not having his way in his own country the way he is bullying around the world. People are out on the streets protesting against the wannabe king. This week’s killing of 37 year old Renee Good by immigration agents in Minneapolis has brought the City to its edge five years after the police killing of George Floyd. The lower courts are checking the president relentlessly in spite of the Supreme Court, if not in defiance of it. There are cracks in the Trump’s MAGA world, disillusioned by his neglect of the economy and his costly distractions overseas. His ratings are slowly but surely falling. And in an electoral harbinger, New York has elected as its new mayor, Zoran Mamdani – a wholesale antithesis of Donald Trump you can ever find.

Outside America it is a different picture. The world is too divided and too cautious to stand up to Trump as he recklessly dismantles the very world order that his predecessors have been assiduously imposing on the world for nearly a hundred years. A few recent events dramatically illustrate the Trump paradox – his constraints at home and his freewheeling abroad.

Restive America

Two days before Christmas, the US Supreme Court delivered a rare rebuke to the Trump Administration. After a host of rulings that favoured Trump by putting on hold, without full hearing, lower court strictures against the Administration, the Supreme Court by a 6-3 majority decided to leave in place a Federal Court ruling that barred Trump from deploying National Guard troops in Chicago. Trump quietly raised the white flag and before Christmas withdrew the federal troops he had controversially deployed in Chicago, Portland and Los Angeles – all large cities run by Democrats.

But three days after the New Year, Trump airlifted the might of the US Army to encircle Venezuela’s capital Caracas and spirit away the country’s President Nicolás Maduro, and his wife Celia Flores, all the way to New York to stand trial in an American Court. What is not permissible in any American City was carried out with absolute impunity in a foreign capital. It turns out the Administration has no plan for Venezuela after taking out Maduro, other than Trump’s cavalier assertion, “We’re going to run it, essentially.” Essentially, the Trump Administration has let Maduro’s regime without Maduro to run the country but with the US in total control of Venezuela’s oil.

Next on the brazen list is Greenland, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio who manipulated Maduro’s ouster is off to Copenhagen for discussions with the Danish government over the future of Greenland, a semi-autonomous part of Denmark. Military option is not off the table if a simple real estate purchase or a treaty arrangement were to prove infeasible or too complicated. That is the American position as it is now customarily announced from the White House podium by the Administration’s Press Secretary Karolyn Leavitt, a 28 year old Catholic woman from New Hampshire, who reportedly conducts a team prayer for divine help before appearing at the lectern to lecture.

After the Supreme Court ruling and the Venezuela adventure, the third US development relevant to my argument is the shooting and killing of a 37 year old white American woman by a US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer in Minneapolis, at 9:30 in the morning, Wednesday, January 7th. Immediately, the Administration went into pre-emptive attack mode calling the victim a “deranged leftist” and a “domestic terrorist,” and asserting that the ICE officer was acting in self-defense. That line and the description are contrary to what many people know of the victim, as well as what people saw and captured on their phones and cameras.

The victim, Renee Nicole Good, was a mother of three and a prize-winning poet who self-described herself a “poet, writer, wife and mom.” A newcomer to Minneapolis from Colorado, she was active in the community and was a designated “legal observer of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activities,” to monitor interactions between ICE agents and civilian protesters that have become the norm in large immigrant cities in America. Renee Good was at the scene in her vehicle to observe ICE operations and community protesters.

In video postings that last a matter of nine seconds, two ICE officers are seen approaching Good’s vehicle and one of them trying to open her door; a bystander is heard screaming “No” as Good is seen trying to drive away; and a third ICE officer is seen standing in front of her moving vehicle, firing twice in the direction of the driver, moving to a side and firing a third time from the side. Good’s car is seen going out of control, careening and coming to a stop on a snowbank. Yet America is being bombarded with two irreconcilable narratives – one manufactured by Trump’s Administration and the other by those at the scene and everyone opposed to the regime.

It adds to the explosiveness of the situation that Good was shot and killed not far from where George Folyd was killed, also in Minneapolis, on 25th May, 2020, choked under the knee of a heartless policeman. And within 48 hours of Good’s killing, two Americans were shot and injured by two federal immigration agents, in Portland, Oregon, on the Westcoast. Trump’s attack on immigrants and the highhanded methods used by ICE agents have become the biggest flashpoint in the political opposition to the Trump presidency. People are organizing protests in places where ICE agents are apprehending immigrants because those who are being aggressively and violently apprehended have long been neighbours, colleagues, small business owners and students in their communities.

Deportation of illegal immigrants is not something that began under Trump. It has been going on in large numbers under all recent presidents including Obama and Biden. But it has never been so cruel and vicious as it is now under Trump. He has turned it into a television spectacle and hired large number of new ICE agents who are politically prejudiced and deployed them without proper training. They raid private homes and public buildings, including schools, looking for immigrants. When faced with protesters they get into clashes rather than deescalating the situation as professional police are trained to do. There is also the fear that the Administration may want to escalate confrontations with protesters to create a pretext for declaring martial law and disrupt the midterm congressional elections in November this year.

But the momentum that Trump was enjoying when he began his second term and started imposing his executive authority, has all but vanished and all within just one year in office. By the time this piece appears in print, the Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs (expected on Friday) may be out, and if as expected the ruling goes against Trump that will be a massive body blow to the Administration. Trump will of course use a negative court ruling as the reason for all the economic woes under his presidency, but by then even more Americans would have become tired of his perpetually recycled lies and boasts.

An Obliging World

To get back to my starting argument, it is in this increasingly hostile domestic backdrop that Trump has started looking abroad to assert his power without facing any resistance. And the world is obliging. The western leaders in Europe, Canada and Australia are like the three wise monkeys who will see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil – of anything that Trump does or fails to do. Their biggest fear is about the Trump tariffs – that if they say anything critical of Trump he will magnify the tariffs against their exports to the US. That is an understandable concern and it would be interesting to see if anything will change if the US Supreme Court were to rule against Trump and reject his tariff powers.

Outside the West, and with the exception of China, there is no other country that can stand up to Trump’s bullying and erratic wielding of power. They are also not in a position to oppose Trump and face increased tariffs on their exports to the US. Putin is in his own space and appears to be assured that Trump will not hurt him for whatever reason – and there are many of them, real and speculative. The case of the Latin American countries is different as they are part of the Western Hemisphere, where Trump believes he is monarch of all he surveys.

After more than a hundred years of despising America, many communities, not just regimes, in the region seem to be warming up to Trump. The timing of Trump’s sequestering of Venezuela is coinciding with a rising right wing wave and regime change in the region. An October opinion poll showed 53% of Latin American respondents reacting positively to a then potential US intervention in Venezuela while only 18% of US respondents were in favour of intervention. While there were condemnations by Latin American left leaders, seven Latin American countries with right wing governments gave full throated support to Trump’s ouster of Maduro.

The reasons are not difficult to see. The spread of crime induced by the commerce of cocaine has become the number one concern for most Latin Americans. The socio-religious backdrop to this is the evangelisation of Christianity at the expense of the traditional Catholic Church throughout Latin America. And taking a leaf from Trump, Latin Americans have also embraced the bogey of immigration, mainly influenced by the influx of Venezuelans fleeing in large numbers to escape the horrors of the Maduro regime.

But the current changes in Latin America are not necessarily indicative of a durable ideological shift. The traditional left’s base in the subcontinent is still robust and the recent regime changes are perhaps more due to incumbency fatigue than shifts in political orientations. The left has been in power for the greater part of this century and has not been able to provide answers to the real questions that preoccupied the people – economic affordability, crime and cocaine. It has not been electorally smart for the left to ignore the basic questions of the people and focus on grand projects for the intelligentsia. Exhibit #1 is the grand constitutional project in Chile under outgoing President Gabriel Borich, but it is not the only one. More romantic than realistic, Boric’s project titillated liberal constitutionalists the world over, but was roundly rejected by Chileans.

More importantly, and sooner than later, Trump’s intervention in Venezuela and his intended takeover of the country’s oil business will produce lasting backlashes, once the initial right wing euphoria starts subsiding. Apart from the bully force of Trump’s personality, the mastermind behind the intervention in Venezuela and policy approach towards Latin America in general, is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the former Cuban American Senator from Florida and the principal leader of the group of Cuban neocons in the US. His ultimate objective is said to be achieving regime change in Cuba – apparently a psychological settling of scores on behalf Cuban Americans who have been dead set against Castro’s Cuba after the overthrow of their beloved Batista.

Mr. Rubio is American born and his parents had left Cuba years before Fidel Castro displaced Fulgencio Batista, but the family stories he apparently grew up hearing in Florida have been a large part of his self-acknowledged political makeup. Even so, Secretary Rubio could never have foreseen a situation such as an externally uncontested Trump presidency in which he would be able to play an exceptionally influential role in shaping American policy for Latin America. But as the old Burns’ poem rhymes, “The best-laid plans of men and mice often go awry.”

by Rajan Philips ✍️

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