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Bangladesh – Sri Lanka Preferential Trade Agreement: Gains and policy challenges

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By Asanka Wijesinghe and Chathurrdhika Yogarajah

0espite enhanced trade partnerships in South Asia, intra-regional trade is far from reaching its theoretical potential. Similar production patterns and competitive sectors can be the causes. However, bilateral discussions to further lower trade costs continue. The ongoing Bangladesh-Sri Lanka discussions on a preferential trade agreement (PTA) will benefit from knowing the potential gains from reducing bilateral trade costs. In addition, knowledge of products with higher potential for export gains will help optimise the economic benefits from a trade deal.

Bangladesh – Sri Lanka Trade:
The Current Status

In 2018, when discussions on a PTA began to firm up, Sri Lanka’s exports to Bangladesh were USD 133 million, while imports from Bangladesh were USD 37 million. Despite the low trade volume, Sri Lanka’s exports to Bangladesh have grown (Figure 1). In addition, Sri Lanka records a bilateral trade surplus with Bangladesh, which is encouraging given the country’s trade deficit concerns. However, weak growth of exports from Bangladesh to Sri Lanka can be seen from 2001 to 2016 (Figure 1).

The current trade deals between the two countries are still partially restrictive. Both countries keep a sensitive list of products that are not eligible for tariff cuts. Sri Lanka maintains a list of 925 products sanctioned by SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) while Bangladesh keeps 993 products. Sri Lanka’s sensitive list covers USD 6.2 million or 23.8% of imports from Bangladesh. The sensitive list of Bangladesh covers USD 77.6 million or 62% of imports from Sri Lanka. Thus, the elimination of sensitive lists may benefit Sri Lanka more.

Figure 1: Trade Intensity between Bangladesh and Sri Lanka

Source: Authors’ Illustration using Trademap Data.

Theoretically, bilateral alliances deepen trade by removing weaknesses in existing multilateral trade arrangements. A trade deal between Bangladesh and Sri Lanka can simplify trade regulations further. In addition, Bangladesh needs alternative preferential access as graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status will take away preferential access to its key markets. For Sri Lanka, increasing bilateral participation in production value chains, especially in the textiles sector, might be an economic motivation. Financial support extended by Bangladesh to manage Sri Lanka’s foreign currency pressures might be a political motivation for a trade deal.

Eliminating sensitive lists can lead to trade creation, although it may not happen due to political and economic reasons. When it comes to tariff cuts, both countries will act defensively as certain products in the sensitive lists are vital for employment and revenue generation. Thus, the success of a trade deal depends on how many products with high export potential are under its purview. In this direction, a group of products with specific characteristics can be identified as an offensive list. For example, Sri Lanka’s offensive list includes products that Bangladesh imports from anywhere in the world, produced by Sri Lanka with a capacity for expansion. Sri Lanka has a comparative advantage in exporting that good, and Bangladesh already has a tariff on the product.

Export Gains from Tariff Elimination

If tariffs on the sensitive lists are eliminated, there will be modest export gains for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka in absolute terms. Sri Lanka will gain USD 24.7 to 49.7 million of exports to Bangladesh, while Bangladesh will gain USD 2.1 to 4.5 million of exports to Sri Lanka. Potential export gains are given in a range due to assumptions on elasticity values used in the partial equilibrium model. Elimination of sensitive lists will generate a higher tariff revenue loss to Bangladesh, ranging between USD 13.5 million to USD 19.1 million. By contrast, Sri Lanka’s revenue loss will be slight at USD 1.4 million to USD 1.9 million.

Whatever the arrangement, it is crucial to include the products with high export potential in the offensive lists (See Table 1 for the major products). Out of 39 products in Bangladesh’s offensive list, 21 are intermediate goods, while 18 are consumption goods. Similarly, 75 out of 115 products in Sri Lanka’s offensive list are intermediate goods. Tariff cuts on intermediate products may induce fragmented production between two countries, which would harness country-specific comparative advantages. Major intermediate goods in the offensive lists are dyed cotton fabrics, cartons, boxes, and cases, plain woven fabrics of cotton, denim, natural rubber, and smoked sheets of natural rubber (Table 1).

The ex-ante estimates predict modest gains for Sri Lanka and Bangladesh in absolute terms, even after completely removing the sensitive list. But complete removal is politically challenging for both countries. Moreover, Bangladesh as an LDC may expect special and differential (S&D) treatment. Thus, the outcome can be a limited PTA in line with weaknesses in existing trade agreements governing South Asian trade. The impact on trade of regional trade agreements in force is negative primarily due to stringent general regulatory measures, including rules of origin (ROO), sensitive lists, and prolonged phasing-in. Given that the estimated modest economic gains of a Bangladesh-Sri Lanka PTA do not justify a trade deal that requires substantial resources for negotiations,the PTA should have fewer regulatory measures and tariff concessions for the products on the offensive lists to maximise the economic benefits of a PTA between the two countries.

Link to the full Talking Economics blog: https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2022/01/20/bangladesh-sri-lanka-preferential-trade-agreement-gains-and-policy-challenges/

Asanka Wijesinghe is a Research Economist at IPS with research interests in macroeconomic policy, international trade, labour and health economics. He holds a BSc in Agricultural Technology and Management from the University of Peradeniya, an MS in Agribusiness and Applied Economics from North Dakota State University, and an MS and PhD in Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics from The Ohio State University. (Talk with Asanka – asanka@ips.lk)

Chathurrdhika Yogarajah is a Research Assistant at IPS with research interests in macroeconomics and trade policy. She holds a BSc (Hons) in Agricultural Technology and Management, specialised in Applied Economics and Business Management from the University of Peradeniya with First Class Honours. She is currently reading for her Master’s in Agricultural Economics at the Postgraduate Institute of Agriculture, Peradeniya. (Talk with Chathurrdhika: chathurrdhika@ips.lk)



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SLT-MOBITEL achieves financial recovery in third quarter 2024

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Janaka Abeysinghe -CEO

SLT-MOBITEL Group has reported a Profit After Tax (PAT) of Rs. 1,093 million for Q3 2024, compared to a loss of Rs. 1,543 million for the same period last year, demonstrating a significant 171% turnaround in bottom-line performance. At company level, Sri Lanka Telecom PLC (SLT) also recorded a positive PAT of Rs. 932 million for Q3 2024 compared to a Rs. 651 million loss last year, indicating a successful transition from loss to profit.

The Group has announced consolidated revenues for the quarter at Rs. 28.5 billion, a 3% increase, up from Rs. 27.7 billion in the previous year. Gross Profit showed a marked increase at Rs. 12.3 billion with a 24.8% increase compared to Rs 9.9 billion. The rise has been driven primarily by cost savings achieved through successful cost-saving initiatives implemented across the Group.

The Group’s EBITDA showed strong growth, reaching Rs. 10.5 billion during Q3 2024, an increase of 30.6% compared to Rs. 8 billion in the previous year. In addition, Operating Profit showed a marked increase at Rs 3.6 billion, a massive 551% growth compared to Rs 549 million last year.

On the cost side, the Group achieved significant reductions across multiple areas as at Q3 2024. Notable savings were realized in Annual Maintenance Costs (AMC) and repair expenses, contributing to substantial year-on-year costs reduction. Costs for the quarter (excluding depreciation and amortization) was Rs. 18 billion, a 8.3% reduction, from Rs. 19.7 billion in the previous year. Additionally, finance costs decreased by 18.1%, further supporting the positive financial performance.

At the company level, SLT achieved a revenue of Rs. 18 billion for the 3rd quarter of the year, an increase of Rs. 603 million, representing a 3.4% growth compared to Rs. 17.5 billion last year. Gross Profit also showed a robust increase of Rs. 1.6 billion with a 22.8% growth compared to Q3 2023. In addition, the company successfully managed operating expenses, achieving a reduction of Rs. 638 million, down 5.4% from last year contributed through a combination of reduced Annual Maintenance Costs, repairs and vehicle hiring expenses.

EBITDA growth of Rs. 1.2 billion, a 21.8% increase, indicated improved operational efficiency of the company. Operating profit surged to Rs 2.5 billion, signalling an impressive 299% growth compared to Q3 2023. The company successfully reduced its finance costs by 28.2% improving the bottom line for the quarter.

Most notably, the company has achieved a remarkable turnaround in PAT improving 243%, an increase of Rs. 1.6 billion compared to Q3 2023, demonstrating effective financial management and successful implementation of growth strategies. (SLT-MOBITEL)

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Tax collection measures contribute to increase in tax revenue in 1H 2024

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The Inland revenue Department in Colombo

However, share of revenue from direct taxes said to have reduced to 26.1 percent

by Sanath Nanayakkare

Apart from a slew of taxes that were imposed on individuals, corporations and withholding taxes on various monetary transactions with effect from January 2024, the strengthened tax collection measures also have contributed to the increase in state revenue, according to the mid-year fiscal report issued by the Ministry of Finance.

The report indicates that mandating financial institutions to submit details of individual taxpayers’ transactions to the Department of Inland Revenue has been a key contributor in this regard.

Apart from that, making electronic tax filing mandatory for individual income taxpayers, streamlining the refund process, expediting refunds of amounts paid in excess and, discouraging cash transactions by not allowing such transactions in one day or in a single transaction or in a single event in aggregate to Rs. 500,000 or more to be deducted as expenses for tax purposes also have helped accrue more revenue to the state coffers.

Further, several policy decisions made to strengthen tax administration such as the issuance of a regulation for the regular exchange of information by individuals including government agencies with the Commissioner General of Inland Revenue have brought its dividends on the revenue share of the government.

In nominal terms, the revenue collection from VAT increased significantly by 85.4 percent to Rs. 616.9 billion in the first half of 2024 compared to Rs. 332.7 billion in the same period of 2023, realizing 44.1 percent of the annual estimate for 2024. Revenue from VAT on domestic activities increased by 49.8 percent to Rs. 353.4 billion while revenue from VAT on imports increased significantly by 172.2 percent to Rs. 263.6 billion in the first half of 2024.

With the growth in revenue from VAT and from taxes on external trade, the share of revenue from direct taxes out of the total tax revenue has reduced to 26.1 percent in the first half of 2024 compared to 32.1 percent recorded in the same period of 2023. In the first half of 2024, the realization of tax revenue collection was 44.7 percent of the estimate of Rs. 3,820.0 billion for 2024

“In nominal terms, the revenue collection from VAT increased significantly by 85.4 percent to Rs. 616.9 billion in the first half of 2024 compared to Rs. 332.7 billion in the same period of 2023, realizing 44.1 percent of the annual estimate for 2024. Revenue from VAT on domestic activities increased by 49.8 percent to Rs. 353.4 billion while revenue from VAT on imports increased significantly by 172.2 percent to Rs. 263.6 billion in the first half of 2024,” the report stated.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the strengthened tax administration has had clear advantages. However, the reports indicates that the share of revenue from direct taxes out of the total tax revenue has reduced to 26.1 percent in the first half of 2024 without giving details as to how this has happened.

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Bank of Ceylon empowers “Aswesuma” beneficiaries to become entrepreneurs with digital banking

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The launch event was led by BOC’s Chairman, Kavinda de Zoysa, along with General Manager/Chief Executive Officer Russel Fonseka, and Deputy General Manager (Branch Operations) Priyal Silva which was held at Narammala.

In a major step toward fostering financial inclusivity and entrepreneurial growth, Bank of Ceylon (BOC) has officially launched a comprehensive, nationwide programme to empower beneficiaries of the “Aswesuma” initiative. The programme is designed to equip beneficiaries with essential digital financial skills and foundational entrepreneurial knowledge, paving the way for sustainable financial independence.

Partnering with divisional secretariat divisions across Sri Lanka, BOC’s programme enables Aswesuma beneficiaries to access and utilise advanced digital banking solutions while building robust financial management capabilities. As a key part of the initiative, beneficiaries received free personalised debit cards to foster responsible financial practices, helping them manage their finances with greater confidence and security. Recognising the importance of financial knowledge and skills for building self-sufficient livelihoods Bank of Ceylon is advancing financial inclusivity in Sri Lanka, equipping communities with the skills and engage them to support sustainable national development.

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