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AidData report warns of a Chinese naval base in Lanka’s Hambantota Port

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People welcoming China's ship Yuan Wang 5 wave Chinese and Sri Lankan flags at Sri Lanka's Hambantota International Port in 2022. Pic by Ishara S. Kodikara

But China is not in a position to defend any of the eight bases it might set up in the next two to five years, the report points out

By Rathindra Kuruwita

A recent report by AidData, a research lab at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, Virginia, claimed that China might establish a naval base in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port in the next two to five years. This can be expected to increase Indian concerns over Chinese presence so close to its southern coastline.

The AidData report, titled “Harboring Global Ambitions: China’s Ports Footprint and Implications for Future Overseas Naval Bases,” identified eight locations where China might establish naval bases in the next two to five years. Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port was number one on the list – meaning the likelihood of a Chinese base here is the highest. The others on the list are Bata, Equatorial Guinea; Gwadar, Pakistan; Kribi, Cameroon; Ream, Cambodia; Vanuatu; Nacala, Mozambique; and Nouakchott, Mauritania.

Between 2001 and 2021, China implemented 123 seaport projects worth $29.9 billion worldwide and funded the construction or expansion of 78 ports in 46 countries, the report said. Of these investments, Hambantota is China’s largest investment in a port project.

The scale of China’s development financing, the strategic value and location of Hambantota, China’s strong relationships with Sri Lankan elites, Colombo’s voting alignment with China in the United Nations General Assembly, and port characteristics suitable for supporting naval fleets were the reasons why the authors of the report picked Hambantota as the number one choice of the Chinese for a naval base.

In recent years, there has been much speculation over China’s use of Hambantota Port for military purposes. The AidData report will provide food for further speculation.

It will particularly deepen Indian apprehensions, Uditha Devapriya, head of International Relations at the Colombo-based independent think tank Factum, told The Diplomat.

Noted Sri Lankan geopolitical analyst Asanga Abeyagoonasekera, who is a senior fellow at The Millennium Project, told The Diplomat that India has been observing with concern, Sri Lanka’s increasing rapprochement with China since Mahinda Rajapaksa became Sri Lankan president in 2005.

India was alarmed when Sri Lanka allowed a Chinese submarine and a warship to dock at its port in the capital Colombo in 2014, Abeyagoonasekera recalled, adding that Indian concerns over the Port of Hambantota grew exponentially after Sri Lanka leased it to China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited for 99 years for $1.12 billion in 2017.

Abeyagoonasekera said that several of India’s neighbors have failed to communicate their dealings with China effectively and transparently with the wide world.

According to Abeyagoonasekera, the establishment of overseas naval bases is a logical next step in China’s expanding global interests as naval bases are also key to safeguarding shipping routes and promoting trade and diplomacy. Currently, China has just one official overseas naval base — a facility in Djibouti — that is adjacent to a commercial port funded, constructed, and operated by China.

China has emerged as a major maritime nation in recent years. Its navy has grown from a force capable of only coastal operations to a blue-water navy. Many experts and policymakers believe that this signifies China’s ambitions for global power projection.

In the 2020 edition of The Science of Military Strategy, published by China’s National Defense University, China states that there “will be an increasing number of naval missions in overseas military operations and the expansion of the scope of operations, the requirements for logistics and equipment support are getting higher and higher,” Abeyagoonasekera said.

While China may be keen to safeguard its interests by building naval bases, establishing and running these bases may not be feasible.

As the AidData report points out, China is not in a position to defend any of the eight ports.

Additionally, China would be crossing a red line by setting up a naval base in Hambantota, Devapriya said. India and China do a lot of business together and despite the fierce media speculations, it is unlikely that China would establish a naval base in Hambantota, he said.

India has always been concerned about foreign powers establishing a foothold in Sri Lanka, given the proximity of the island to its southern coast and its location in the Indian Ocean.

Given the history and current strategic competition between India and China and the increasing divergence in the capabilities between the two nations, India has been aggressive in expressing its displeasure over any sign of warming ties between Colombo and Beijing. In 2022, for instance, India objected when a Chinese research vessel docked in Hambantota Port. Reports in the Indian media have speculated over China building a radar facility at Matara, about 50 kilometers from Hambantota.

Sri Lanka’s strategic geographical position has attracted the attention of numerous major global players, including China, India, and the United States – all seeking to establish a presence in the region. Despite Sri Lanka’s desire to remain untangled in international complexities, past administrations have struggled to effectively convey their commitment to a nonaligned foreign policy to these influential nations.

Devapriya said that Sri Lanka needs to do better in assuaging the concerns of India. Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe just concluded a successful visit to India and the good relationships he forged there can be used to communicate Sri Lanka’s good intentions, Devapriya said. Wickremesinghe “can do the same when he visits China in a few months,” he added.



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Rethinking global order in the precincts of Nalanda

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It has become fashionable to criticise the US for its recent conduct toward Iran. This is not an attempt to defend or rationalise the US’s actions. Rather, it seeks to inject perspective into an increasingly a historical debate. What is often missing is institutional memory: An understanding of how the present international order was constructed and the conditions under which it emerged.

The “rules-based order” was forged in the aftermath of two catastrophic wars. Earlier efforts had faltered. Woodrow Wilson’s proposal for a League of Nations after World War I was rejected by the US Senate. Yet, it introduced a lasting premise: International order could be consciously designed, not left solely to shifting power balances. That premise returned after World War II. The Dumbarton Oaks process laid the groundwork for the UN, while Bretton Woods established the global financial architecture.

These frameworks shaped modern norms of security, finance, trade, and governance. The US played the central role in this design, providing leadership even as it engaged selectively- remaining outside certain frameworks while shaping others. This underscored a central reality: Power and principle have always coexisted uneasily within it.

This order most be understood against the destruction that preceded it. Industrial warfare, aerial bombardment, and weapons capable of unprecedented devastation reshaped both the ethics and limits of conflict. The post-war system emerged from this trauma, anchored in a fragile consensus of “never again”, even as authority remained concentrated among five powers.

The rise of China, the re-emergence of India, and the growing assertiveness of Russia and regional powers are reshaping the global balance. Technological disruption and renewed competition over energy and resources are transforming the nature of power. In this environment, some American strategists argue that the US risks strategic drift Iran, in this view, becomes more than a regional issue; it serves as a platform for signalling resolve – not only to Tehran, but to Beijing and beyond. Actions taken in one theatre are intended to shape perceptions of credibility across multiple fronts.

Recent actions suggest that while the US retains unmatched military reach, it has exercised a level of restraint. The avoidance of escalation into the most extreme forms of warfare indicates that certain thresholds in great-power conflict remain intact. If current trends persist-where power increasingly substitutes for principle — this won’t remain a uniquely American dilemma.

Other major powers may face similar choices. As capabilities expand, the temptation to act outside established norms may grow. What begins as a context-specific deviation can harden into accepted practice. This is the paradox of great power transition: What begins as an exception risk becoming a precedent The question now is whether existing systems are capable of renewal. Ad hoc frameworks may stabilise the present, but risk orphaning the future. Without a broader framework, they risk managing disorder rather than designing order. The Dumbarton Oaks process was a structured diplomatic effort shaped by competing visions and compromise. A contemporary equivalent would be more complex, reflecting a more diffuse distribution of power and lower levels of trust Such an effort must include the US, China, India, the EU, Russia, and other key powers.

India could serve as a credible convenor capable of bridging divides. Its position -engaged with multiple powers yet not formally aligned – gives it a degree of convening legitimacy. Nalanda-the world’s first university – offers an appropriate symbolic setting for such dialogue, evoking knowledge exchange across civilisations rather than competition among them.

Milinda Moragoda is a former cabinet minister and diplomat from Sri Lanka and founder of the Pathfinder Foundation, a strategic affairs think tank could be contacted atemail@milinda.org. This article was published in Hindustan Times on 2026.04.19)

By Milinda Moragoda

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Father and daughter … and now Section 8

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Members of Section 8

The combination of father and daughter, Shafi and Jana, as a duo, turned out to be a very rewarding experience, indeed, and now they have advanced to Section 8 – a high-energy, funk-driven, jazz-oriented live band, blending pop, rock, funk, country, and jazz.

Guitar wizard Shafi is a highly accomplished lead guitarist with extensive international experience, having performed across Germany, Australia, the Maldives, Canada, and multiple global destinations.

Shafi: Guitar wizard, at the helm of Section 8

Jana: Dynamic and captivating lead vocalist

He is best known as a lead guitarist of Wildfire, one of Sri Lanka’s most recognised bands, while Jana is a dynamic and captivating lead vocalist with over a decade of professional performing experience.

Jana’s musical journey started early, through choir, laying the foundation for her strong vocal control and confident stage presence.

Having also performed with various local bands, and collaborated with seasoned musicians, Jana has developed a versatile style that blends energy, emotion, and audience connection.

The father and daughter combination performed in the Maldives for two years and then returned home and formed Section 8, combining international stage experience with a sharp understanding of what it takes to move a crowd.

In fact, Shafi and Jana performed together, as a duo, for over seven years, including long-term overseas contracts, building a strong musical partnership and a deep understanding of international audiences and live entertainment standards.

Section 8 is relatively new to the scene – just two years old – but the outfit has already built a strong reputation, performing at private events, weddings, bars, and concerts.

The band is known for its adaptability, professionalism, and engaging stage presence, and consistently delivers a premium live entertainment experience, focused on energy, groove, and audience connection.

Section 8 is also a popular name across Sri Lanka’s live music circuit, regularly performing at venues such as Gatz, Jazzabel, Honey Beach, and The Main Sports Bar, as well as across the southern coast, including Hikkaduwa, Ahangama, Mirissa, and Galle.

What’s more, they performed two consecutive years at Petti Mirissa for their New Year’s gala, captivating international audiences present with high-energy performance, specially designed for large-scale celebrations.

With a strong following among international visitors, the band has become a standout act within the tourist entertainment scene, as well.

Their performances are tailored to diverse audiences, blending international hits with dance-driven sets, while also incorporating strong jazz influences that add depth, musicianship, and versatility to their sound.

The rest of the members of Section 8 are also extremely talented and experienced musicians:

Suresh – Drummer, with over 20 years of international experience.

Dimantha – Keyboardist, with global exposure across multiple countries.

Dilhara – Bassist and multi-instrumentalist, also a composer and producer, with technical expertise.

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Celebrations … in a unique way

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The attraction on 14th July

Rajiv Sebastian could be classified as an innovative performer.

Yes, he certainly has plenty of surprises up his sleeves and that’s what makes him extremely popular with his fans.

Rajiv & The Clan are now 35 years in the showbiz scene and Rajiv says he has plans to celebrate this special occasion … in a unique way!

According to Rajiv, the memories of Clarence, Neville, Baig, Rukmani, Wally and many more, in its original flavour, will be relived on 14th July.

“We will be celebrating our anniversary at the Grand Maitland (in front of the SSC playground) on 14th July, at 7.00pm, and you will feel the inspiration of an amazing night you’ve never seen before,” says Rajiv, adding that all the performers will be dressed up in the beautiful sixties attire, and use musical instruments never seen before.

In fact, Rajiv left for London, last week, and is scheduled to perform at four different venues, and at each venue his outfit is going to be different, he says, with the sarong being very much a part of the scene.

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