By Rathindra Kuruwita

The prices of upcountry vegetables like carrots will come down at the end of February, says Prof. Buddhi Marambe of the Agriculture Faculty, University of Peradeniya.Heavy rains during the past few months were the main reason for the current increase in the prices of vegetables, Prof. Marambe said, adding that December and April were festive seasons in Sri Lanka, and the prices of food usually went up during those months. Traditionally, the prices of vegetables usually go up in November, December, January, April, May and June.

“However, there have been some unique reasons for the current spike in vegetable prices. We saw heavy rains in October, November and December 2023. The average monthly rainfall in the upcountry in those three months, was about 400 mm,” Prof. Marambe said, adding that during tthose months, there were rains for at least 25 days of the month. When there is a cloud cover, it is difficult for plants to perform photosynthesis. Thus, the harvest drops.

“This is why we have a lot of smaller carrots.”

Sri Lankan farmers, especially vegetable growers, did not adhere to stringent soil conservation techniques, Prof. Marambe said. The heavy rains in October, November and December 2023 led to severe soil erosion.

“Some farmers opt out of farming when there are heavy rains. Although, usually farmers try to increase vegetable production between December and January, they failed to do so this year due to the heavy rains.”

Prof. Marambe said that the rainy weather is coming to an end and that farmers have started to increase their production due to the rise in prices.

“So technically, the produce should start reaching the markets by the end of February. Don’t also forget that the demand has collapsed because of high prices.”

The academic said that Sri Lanka must look at agriculture as a whole. Right now, the government focuses on the farmers when the crops are planted and then on the consumers when the harvest comes into the market.

“This often leads to contradictory policy decisions. We must now ensure that we don’t lose track of paddy cultivation.”

Prof. Marambe mentioned that paddy can remain partially underwater for a few days and survive. However, if they are submerged by water, they too will not be able to perform photosynthesis.

“Once the floods go down, there is a possibility that diseases might increase. We must not be scared, but we must be vigilant. Farmers must talk to their agricultural officer if they notice anything different about the paddy plant.”

He also said that there are several conflicts in the world, and in some instances, trade has been affected. There may be a high probability of Sri Lanka encountering challenges in securing the inputs needed for agriculture.

“We already know how much we need to produce to ensure a smooth supply. We don’t import fresh vegetables, and we know how many vegetables we need, how many acres we need to plant, and what inputs we need. So we don’t really need to wait till the very end to import the necessary inputs. We wait till the last moment and then lament that there were price increases in the world market, etc. We need to be ready and order the inputs we need.”

Sri Lanka has a long history of making ad hoc decisions when it comes to agriculture, he said. The country needs to look at the data and analyze it before making a decision.

“We as scientists also have a responsibility to collect and present the data in a way that policymakers can make clear and informed decisions. The governments must also try to be as scientific as possible. Until both sides work together, we will continue to land ourselves in messes.”

Prof. Marambe said there are many issues with regard to Sri Lankan agriculture storage facilities. Some officials seem to believe that storage only involves dumping goods into a building and closing the door.

“When we store food, even seeds, we must store them in the right conditions. There were reports of potato seeds that were to be distributed to farmers getting spoiled because of bad storage. Farmers keep on suffering because of uninformed decisions and practices.”

Prof. Marambe said the reason for the heavy rains we experienced was the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which is an irregular oscillation of sea surface temperatures in which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and then colder than the eastern part of the ocean. When the western Indian Ocean becomes warmer, our Western slope will experience heavy rains.

“We did the studies, and we told the Minister of Agriculture that Sri Lanka will see heavy rains in October, November and December 2023.”

He added that there are many dedicated agriculture researchers in Sri Lanka who are studying IOD and its impact on our agriculture, and with their hard work, Sri Lanka should be able to take the best advantage of rains and minimize the damage caused by heavy rains in the future.