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A Tough Road Ahead for Military Regimes



by Kumar David

This may appear to be a bold title just two months after the February 1 coup in Burma but it’s true. For starters the Burmese junta is in a tight spot – the army opened fire in 40 locations on Saturday; Rangoon saw dozens of deaths and killings were recorded from Kachin in the north to the far south; more than 400 protesters have been killed by army since the coup and there is no sign that the surge of public anger will subside. There is no question that the junta has to be overthrown and foreign assistance is needed for that. If China pulls the rug from under the killer generals it will be curtains for the junta, but Beijing is in no hurry; its geopolitical objectives and the B&R Initiative take priority. Across the world military dictatorships are becoming scarce; there are none in the Americas – even Venezuela is a political party regime which makes use of the military. There are three in Africa, the egregious despot Sisi in Egypt, Mali and Sudan. In Asia only Thailand and Burma. In China and Vietnam the Party is constitutionally supreme and the repository of state power. The military is subservient to the Party. How to classify North Korea is a challenge not within my ability.

What I am leading to is a bold assertion. The prospect of outright Presidential-despotism or a naked military takeover in Lanka has suffered setbacks for many reasons. You are hearing this from one who has been obsessed with militarisation since November 2019! Is this reassuring? Well yes and no. Yes, a military takeover with or without connection to the President is remote. No, militarisation of the civilian administration will not be dismantled. I am obliged to explain my adjusted perspective. The backlash against militarisation in the liberal middle class, non-government political parties, the media, the Tamils and Muslims, and eventually even the subaltern social classes (in step with ruinous increases in living costs) has been stark. This recoil is sturdier than I anticipated 15 months ago. Only Gota himself, the Viyath Maga coots and a few Gota-devotees among my friends approve of the pernicious expansion of the military’s role into civil administration.


Four other factors have also the pushed back. Obvious but most recent is the Geneva result. The quixotic Executive and its sycophantic retired Generals, Admirals and Air Marshals now know that the militarism cock won’t fight any longer. No one in that motley cabal, I am sure, thinks that they can fight the whole world with one and a half hands tied behind their backs. So I am hypothesising that a military takeover, with or without a role for the Executive is out of the question. Not only world opinion but specifically India will respond firmly. The three other reasons making a hare-brained adventure unlikely are: (i) Muslim and Tamil minorities, in the context of the anti-minority stance of the Executive-cum-military will not accept it and will petition India, South India, the diaspora and the Islamic world. (ii) If a there is a military regime for a protracted period the birth of LTTE-Mark 2 cannot be aborted; I don’t know about ISIS-Lanka Mark 1. (iii) The economic debacle makes the military unpopular – unfairly, because it has not been involved in economic policy making, but the point is that in the public mind the Gotabaya Executive and its officers cabal, albeit retired, are interwoven. The Global Tamil Forum, a diaspora Tamil entity which prefers a united, free, democratic and plural Sri Lanka sums it up well. In a statement on the HRC Resolution it says the government should “listen to the coherent voice of the international community, and accept the parameters of this Resolution for the betterment of the country and people. By rejecting it, it is isolating itself from the international community”. I need add isolating itself from progressive Sinhalese opinion as well.


This brings me to another assertion that readers may like to reflect upon. I opine that the active military, that is the serving officer corps of lieutenants, captains and above, and a majority of soldiers, sailors and airmen, do not want involvement in a coup or a military government, and thereafter inevitable clashes with civilians. It is not the active military but some retired top rung officers (former commanders and deputy or third or fourth level commanders) who are ambitious. And for every one that satiates himself a dozen retirees are left out in the cold. No one has done a statistical survey but I will wager that a majority of serving officers and men in the forces prefer to wash their hands off any notion of a military regime. It is different in Egypt and Burma where the serving military is the principal beneficiary of the dictatorship and the top officer corps rakes in perks and the dollars. Goodies are spread across the two juntas as was the case with the Gorilla Regimes of South and Central America in the Twentieth Century. The proclivity to militarise the state in Lanka therefore issues from the Executive and a few buddies. There too there is a problem. Unlike Mahinda, Gota lacks a deep, proven and long-matured mass base. Therefore he is reinforcing an alternative footing among retired officers who served during his time as Defence Secretary with many of whom he may be well acquainted, and with the shallow semi-educated petty-bourgeoisie of Viyath Maga.


It is truly said Gota polled an overwhelming 72% of Sinhala-Buddhist votes and extremist and non-extremist monks rallied to his cause as did opportunists Weerawansa, Gammanpila and Vasudeva. But I would treat this, if taken as proof that Gota has a powerful Sinhala-Buddhist foundation of mass support, with much caution. Imagine this scenario: Imagine a rift between the executive branch and political branch (Mahinda and SLPP) of state. I have little doubt that at the base – that is in the mass – the great majority of pro-government Sinhala-Buddhists will support the latter. The point is that Gota does not have a deep SB mass following, not even among the saffron clad – key word “deep”. As time passes he will not be able to lean on SBism against political rivals competing for the same base. This is a weakness and it makes him look for others such as the military (pensioners as it turns out) and intellectual trivia like Viyath Maga. Gota was not a politician till 2019 and it was a fortuitous concourse of events that brought the Sinhala-Buddhist mass and the war time Defence Secretary into alignment, but it is not deep enough to weather the storm gathering on the horizon. In a struggle between Sinhala-Buddhism and militarism for moral hegemony over the nation the former ideology will win hands down. Thus weakened, if the regime thwarts accountability, reconciliation and anti-militarism demanded by international opinion it is setting course for shipwreck.


Some of the theses I have canvassed today are novel and controversial but the way things unfold in the next 12 months may bear them out. To summarise my case in a paragraph. I have argued that military regimes are globally out of flavour in this epoch; the thrust to militarisation in Lanka that I feared a year ago has been delayed or arrested; the Lankan Executive does not enjoy the confidence of the Sinhala-Buddhist masses as it did a year ago (covid, the economy, sugared allegations of corruption have undermined it); the serving military is not power hungry (the same cannot be said of retired brass); and any adventure will be crushed by domestic opposition with international support (the Chinese can’t save a dictatorship in Lanka – Beijing is busy saving its butt from a savaging by the two Bs, Biden and Blinken). The sun seems to be peeping through the clouds. The crushing defeats GoSL has countenanced have turned out to be good for democracy in the country.

[A video in English and Sinhala by Mangala Samarweera on our fall into disrepute is in the following site:]



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Foreign policy dilemmas increase for the big and small



‘No responsible American President can remain silent when basic human rights are violated.’ This pronouncement by US President Joe Biden should be interpreted as meaning that the supporting of human rights everywhere will be a fundamental focus of US foreign policy. Accordingly, not only the cause of the Armenians of old but the situation of the Muslim Uyghurs of China will be principal concerns for the Biden administration.

However, the challenge before the US would be take this policy stance to its logical conclusion. For example, the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was one of the most heinous crimes to be committed by a state in recent times but what does the Biden administration intend to do by way of ensuring that the criminals and collaborators of the crime are brought to justice? In other words, how tough will the US get with the Saudi rulers?

Likewise, what course of action would the US take to alleviate the alleged repression being meted out to the Uyghurs of China? How does it intend to take the Chinese state to task? Equally importantly, what will the US do to make light the lot of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny? These are among the most urgent posers facing the US in the global human rights context.

Worse dilemmas await the US in Africa. Reports indicate that that the IS and the Taliban have begun to infiltrate West Africa in a major way, since they have been compelled to vacate the Middle East, specially Syria and Iraq. West African countries, such as, Mali, Burkina Faso, Nigeria and Mauritania are already facing the IS/Taliban blight. The latter or their proxies are in the process heaping horrendous suffering on the civilian populations concerned. How is the US intending to alleviate the cruelties being visited on these population groups. Their rights are of the first importance. If the US intends to project itself as a defender of rights everywhere, what policy program does it have in store for Africa in this connection?

It does not follow from the foregoing that issues of a kindred kind would not be confronting the US in other continents. For example, not all is well in Asia in the rights context. With the possible exception of India, very serious problems relating to democratic development bedevil most Asian states, including, of course, Sri Lanka. The task before any country laying claims to democratic credentials is to further the rights of its citizens while ensuring that they are recipients of equitable growth. As a foremost champion of fundamental rights globally, it would be up to the US to help foster democratic development in the countries concerned. And it would need to do so with an even hand. It cannot be selective in this undertaking of the first importance.

The US would also from now on need to think long and deep before involving itself militarily in a conflict-ridden Southern country. Right now it is up against a policy dilemma in Afghanistan. It is in the process of pulling out of the country after 20 years but it is leaving behind a country with veritably no future. It is leaving Afghanistan at the mercy of the Taliban once again and the commentator is right in saying that the US did not achieve much by way of bringing relief to the Afghan people.

However, the Biden administration has done somewhat well in other areas of state concern by launching a $1.9 trillion national economic and social resuscitation program, which, if effectively implemented could help the US people in a major way. The administration is also living up to the people’s hopes by getting under way an anti-Covid-19 vaccination program for senior US citizens. These ventures smack of social democracy to a degree.

The smaller countries of South Asia in particular ought to be facing their fair share of foreign policy quandaries in the wake of some of these developments. India, the number one power of the region, is in the throes of a major health crisis deriving from the pandemic but it is expected to rebound economically in an exceptional way and dominate the regional economic landscape sooner rather than later.

For example, the ADB predicts India will recover from an 8% contraction in fiscal 2020 and grow by 11% and 7% this year and next year. South Asia is expected to experience a 9.5% overall economic expansion this year but it is India that will be the chief contributor to this growth. A major factor in India’s economic fortunes will be the US’ stimulus package that will make available to India a major export market.

For the smaller states of South Asia, such as Sri Lanka, the above situation poses major foreign policy implications. While conducting cordial and fruitful relations with China is of major importance for them, they would need to ensure that their relations with India remain unruffled. This is on account of their dependence on India in a number of areas of national importance. Since India is the predominant economic power in the region, these smaller states would do well to ensure that their economic links with India continue without interruption. In fact, they may need to upgrade their economic ties with India, considering the huge economic presence of the latter. A pragmatic foreign policy is called for since our biggest neighbour’s presence just cannot be ignored.

The Sri Lankan state has reiterated its commitment to an ‘independent foreign policy’ and this is the way to go but Sri Lanka would be committing a major policy mistake by tying itself to China too closely in the military field. This would send ‘the wrong signal’ to India which is likely to be highly sensitive to the goings-on in its neighbourhood which, for it, have major security implications. A pragmatic course is best.

In terms of pragmatism, the Maldives are forging ahead, may be, in a more exceptional manner than her neighbours. Recently, she forged closer security cooperation with the US and for the Maldives this was the right way to go because the move served her national interest. And for any state, the national interest ought to be of supreme importance.

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A Sri Lankan centre for infective disease control and prevention



The need of the hour:

BY Dr B. J. C. Perera

MBBS(Cey), DCH(Cey), DCH(Eng), MD(Paed), MRCP(UK), FRCP(Edin), FRCP(Lon), FRCPCH(UK), FSLCPaed, FCCP, Hony FRCPCH(UK), Hony. FCGP(SL)

Specialist Consultant Paediatrician and Honorary Senior Fellow, Postgraduate Institute of Medicine, University of Colombo, Sri Lanka.

On 01st July 1946, the Communicable Disease Center (CDC) of the United States of America opened its doors and occupied one floor of a small building in Atlanta, Georgia. Its primary mission was simple, yet highly challenging. It was to prevent malaria from spreading across the nation. Armed with a budget of only 10 million US dollars, and fewer than 400 employees, the agency’s early tasks included obtaining enough trucks, sprayers, and shovels necessary to wage war on mosquitoes.

It later advanced, slightly changed its name, and transformed itself into the much-acclaimed and reputed Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). It became a unique agency with an exceptional mission. They work 24/7 to protect the safety, health and security of America from threats there and around the world. Highest standards of science are maintained in this institution. CDC is the nation’s leading science-based, data-driven, service organization that protects the public’s health. For more than 70 years, they have put science into action to help children stay healthy so they can grow and learn, to help families, businesses, and communities fight disease and stay strong and to protect the health of the general public. Their are a bold promise to the nation, and even the world. With this strategic framework, CDC commits to save American lives by securing global health and America’s preparedness, eliminating disease, and ending epidemics. In a landmark move, the CDC even established a Central Asia regional office at the U.S. Consulate in Kazakhstan in 1995 and have been involved in public health initiatives in that region.

More recently, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), was established. It is an agency of the European Union, aimed at strengthening Europe’s defences against infectious diseases. The core functions cover a wide spectrum of activities such as surveillance, epidemic intelligence, response, scientific advice, microbiology, preparedness, public health training, international relations, health communication, and the scientific journal Eurosurveillance.

Still later on, the African CDC (ACDC) was born. It strengthens the capacity and capability of Africa’s public health institutions, as well as partnerships, to detect and respond quickly and effectively to disease threats and outbreaks, based on data-driven interventions and programmes.

All these organisations are autonomous, independent, and are confidently dedicated to hold science to be sacred. They play a major role in advocacy and work in a committed advisory capacity. With the cataclysmic effects of the current coronavirus pandemic COVID-19, the contributions made by these institutions are priceless. What is quite important is that they are able to provide specific recommendations based on the latest scientific information available for countries and nations in their regions, even taking into account the many considerations that are explicit and even unique to their regions. All these organisations have been provided with optimal facilities and human resources. The real value of their contribution is related to just one phenomenon: AUTONOMY.

Well…, isn’t it the time for us to start a Sri Lankan Centre for Infective Disease Control and Prevention (SLCIDC)? It should be formulated as an agency constantly striving, day in and day out, to safeguard the health of the public. Science and unbending commitment to evaluation of research on a given topic should be their operating mantra. It would work as a completely apolitical organisation and what we can recommend is that it would be directly under the President of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka, unswervingly reporting to and accountable to the President. It would consist of medical doctors, scientists and researchers but no politicians of any sort, no non-medical or non-scientist persons, no hangers on and no business persons. All appointments to the SLCIDC will be made by the President of the country, perhaps in consultation with medical professional organisations.

The prime duty of the SLCIDC would be to assess the on-going situation of any infective issue that has any effect on the health of the public. The organisation will undertake in-depth examination and assessment of a given situation caused by an infective organism. They need to have all relevant data from within the country as well as from outside the country. There will not be any vacillation of the opinions expressed by them and their considered views should not be coloured by any consideration apart from science and research done locally and worldwide. Their considered opinion would be conveyed directly to the President of the country. They are free to issue statements to keep the public informed about the results of their deliberations.

We believe that it would be a step in the right direction; perhaps even a giant step for our nation, not only during the current coronavirus pandemic but also on any major problems of an infective nature that might occur in the future.


This writer wishes to acknowledge a colleague, a Consultant Physician, who first mooted this idea during a friendly conversation.

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Kudurai Madiri Pona



The big jumbo has come from the French land and as the French themselves say it is ‘annus mirabillis’ the miracle year, finally, and finally the wait is over. The world will now see the Big- Bus that we all waited for so long to see. As the years roll by, none would talk of delays regarding the delays on delivery dates and how late the bird flew in. These would be like words written on a blackboard, erased forever. But the aeroplane will grace the sky and, perhaps rewrite all the records of commercial aviation when the mega-miracle A380 dominates the international air-routes.

Singapore Airlines went into the record books as the launch customer. Some of my old friends from SIA would fly the A380. Perhaps, Luke would, too, and this story is about him. Luke of yesteryear and how he first flew as a cadet and how young Luke and I went romping the skies in our own special way, writing a few new lines in the flight training manual.

Luke was from Johor Baru, in Malaysia. His roots were in South India where years ago his grandfather had done a Robinson Crusoe and ended up in the Malayan Peninsula. Luke was named after one of the four Gospel scribes. Luke really isn’t his name. It is a pseudonym, I use just to give him some anonymity. Not much protection, but one is to three are playable odds. Like in Rumple stiltskin the manikin, you are welcome to guess the name.

We first flew to Seoul. He, straight out of flying College, and yours truly, as old as the hills, driving the ‘Jumbo’ classic, the lovable 747. The first thing I noticed about him was his socks, black and white diamond shapes, a mini version of the flags they swing at Grand Prix finals – if Luke swung his feet, a Ferrari would pass underneath. That we sorted out the first day itself. In Seoul,he went shopping and the next day he was Zorro, waist to toe, black as a crow.

His flying credentials were all there, somewhat mixed up between what they teach in modern flying schools and how to apply the ‘ivory tower’ jargon to cope with the big 747. As for raw handling of the aeroplane, all his skills were intact, only they were in bits and pieces and spread in places like an Irida Pola (Sunday Fair). They had to be streamlined, the wet market needed to be modified to a ‘Seven-Eleven’ – that was my job.

The next round we went flying to Europe, his first run to the unknown, like Gagarin in his Sputnik, young Luke flew to Rome. The flying was same as before, a bit mixed up amidst the hundreds of aero dynamical paraphernalia that spelled out from the encyclopaedic collection of books that he had to study.

That’s when I decided to change the tide.

‘Luke my friend,” I said to him in a fatherly fashion.

‘You and I are from similar fields, you from Kerala and me from Sri Lanka. These Min Drag Curves and VFEs and WAT limits and VLEs are too much for us. Just remember when you pull the stick back, the houses will become smaller and when you push the stick down, the houses will become bigger, that’s climbing and descending this monster,” I explained the simple theory of flight.

“As for landing my friend, Kudurai Madiri Pona, just ride it like a horse.”

That was it. We flew, over Europe and he flew like a Trojan, bravely battling the weather and the overcrowded skies. Every time he came in to land it was pure and simple Kudurai Madiri Pona and the big jumbo responded and touched down on the concrete as smooth as a honeymoon lover.

On the way back, we flew via Colombo, that’s my home ground. I requested the radar controller to give Luke a very short ‘four-mile’ final. They know me well here and the controller said “No problem, Captain.”

I was depicting what we did in the Old Hong Kong Airport or what we do in the Canarsi Approach in New York; both, most demanding. A ‘four-mile’ final is a challenge for anyone. I was throwing him in at the deep end and I had no doubt Luke could manage. He came in tight and right, like Hopalong Cassidy and rode the horse straight and beautiful to do a perfect landing. Gone was the Kampong kid and his ‘Irida Pola’ flying, this was Takashimaya and Robinsons rolled into one, everything was in place, nice and shining and professional to the tee.

That was our little story, Luke the ‘jockey’ and me. Sometimes in the field of training, the script needs a little changing. New acts to be introduced to suit the stage. That is the essence of teaching, different hurdles for different horses. It wasn’t for Luke to learn what I knew, more so, it was for me to know who he was and what he could cope with. That part was difficult to find in the flying training manual, and so was Kudurai Madiri Pona.

The world has gotten older and young Luke now wears four stripes and flies in command of Boeing Triple Sevens, fly-by-wire and multiple computers. I met him a few times, flew as his passenger, too, with great pride. “Captain Luke is in command,” the stewardess announced, and silently and gratefully I said, ‘Amen’.

I saw him walking down the aisle, looking for me. Same old Luke in his flat and uncombed Julius Ceaser hairstyle. He came to my seat and grinned and shook my hand and lightly lifted his trouser leg and said,

“Captain, the socks are black and it is still Kudurai Madiri Pona.

I am sure Luke will fly in command of the gigantic A380 one day. That’s a certainty. It would be the zenith for any pilot. Luke is ready, that I know. He is competent, polished and professional and will wear socks as black as midnight. It’s nice that he remembers his beginnings. That’s what flying is all about, that’s what life is all about.

Kudurai Madiri Pona

– ride it like a horse. Some flying lesson.

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