by Jayasri Priyalal

Pareto Analysis is a decision-making tool based on the Pareto Principle, also known as the 80/20 rule. This principle suggests that roughly 80% of effects come from 20% of causes. Pareto principle is a good guide useful to analyse causes and effects of the 9th Presidential election results held on 21st September 2024 in Sri Lanka. Exit polls predicted 28% votes gain for NPP, which rounded up with 43% votes polled, presumably further 15% complemented the tally from the protest votes against the Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe partnership and cemented the victory of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD).

The ‘Jana Balawegaya’ force that propelled the recent electoral shift to position President Anura Kumara Dissanayake as the 9th President of Sri Lanka was a culmination of protest votes of the 80 percent of the frustrated electorate in totality, who were determined to chase the 20 percent corrupt elitist who proclaimed to be the political pundits pretending to be the experts of rescuing the country bankrupted by them.

This writer opines that the seeds of Aragalaya movement with the GoHomeGota campaign culminated in the mobilisation of the protest wave headed by two political brands carrying the ‘Jana Balawegaya’ as part of their names—the Jathika Jana Balawegaya or the National People’s Power (NPP) and Samagi Jana Balawegaya. Eighty percent rallied with Jana Balawegaya and silenced the twenty percent corrupt elitist paving the way for a system change. (See Table)

Election of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake as the 9th Executive President of Sri Lanka is a great consolation for those who fearlessly took to the street and joined the Go Home Gota campaign. A true son of a commoner from Thabuttegama has now been tasked with initiating necessary changes for installing a functioning system to uplift the quality of life of the marginalised, vulnerable non-corrupt innocent people from the grasp of the corrupt elites who had been enjoying power at the expense of poor and destitute are now aspiring for a sigh of relief.

No man or woman is greater than his or her task

A mammoth task is ahead of President AKD. It is not an easy task with varying degrees of expectations of different social strata.  As a nation, most of the Sri Lankans are for a system change and the 80% of the ‘Jana Balawegaya’ force need to be patient in realising their dreams. At this stage all Sri Lankans should stand in unity irrespective of their political opinions putting the country before all other priorities. Sticking with ideologies will not take the country forward, except understanding the reality and introducing the right strategies with essential structural changes. Denouncing Marxism as NPP’s core ideology is a welcome move. It is also important to remember that debt burdened neo-liberal economic policies have ruined many economies. Sri Lankans need to invent an original socio-economic strategy that is unique with socialism at the core. Yet, the policy-makers should not get saddled into failed policy tools of “Brahmin Socialism” propagated by economists and think tanks without understanding the ground reality.

The role played by the Sri Lankan judiciary is to be appreciated and it was not to the liking of the politicians in power.

The 2024 presidential election results prove that the UNP, the oldest political party in the country, has been ruined by its leader Ranil Wickremesinghe.

This writer opines that the deterioration of law and order paving the way for corrupt unsustainable privileges led to political culture emerging with the enactment of the 1978 Constitution under the leadership of President J R Jayewardene.

President AKD deserves the credit for taking a few important critical steps such as appointing credible people to high offices of the government. Amongst them is the appointment of a respected police officer as the Acting IGP. Similarly, bringing the State Intelligence Service (SIS) under police control from military control was a critical decision. Choosing right horses for courses is a step in the right direction is a praiseworthy achievement of President AKD in the short span into power.

It is heartening to note that the Secretary General of the Constitutional Council (CC) has called for applications to fill the vacancy of the Director-General of the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption. In the current atmosphere, the CC will have a tough time selecting the right person for the job.

The actions deserve commendation of the tasks so far accomplished by the President AKD, and the rest of the bucket list will unfold in the days ahead. President AKD has proven his integrity and mettle. Now all Sri Lankans have the chance to elect a functioning government at the forthcoming parliamentary election on 14th November 2024. Although the ‘Jana Balawegaya’ swing was high favouring the NPP at the Presidential election, getting the right mandate to form a government even with a simple majority at the parliamentary election will be a challenge. President AKD possessed the personality to appeal to the voters to cast their choice, but NPP must face the parliamentary election sans the popularity brand of AKD.

Stand for one right thing, or opt to fall for everything

Pareto analysis was cited at the beginning as vital to apply to assess the degree of frustration amongst the marginalised and vulnerable groups in Sri Lanka. This group was the dominant sector for the electoral gain of the NPP. It is worth remembering the phenomenon of reality: all revolutions start in the belly once in four hours when hunger triggers for action.

International donor agencies still estimate that nearly 23% of the population has been pushed into absolute poverty. The helpless schoolgirl drinking water with sugar to sustain life as circulated in social media is a true testimony. An island with an abundance of natural resources and a manageable population, nestled in the tropics grappling to provide basic needs for its population is unfortunate. This is the systemic failure that the policy-makers need to address on a priority basis.

Addressing the burning issues of the marginalised poor due to lack of choice, 20% must be dealt with urgency. First and foremost, identifying these vulnerable groups is a challenge.  The practice of using social welfare for political purposes must end. Shortcomings of the Samurdhi and Aswesuma must be handled with care. Classic example to follow from India as to how the Prime Minister Modi’s government used the digital technology with the biometrics to identify and implement the “Aadhar” scheme. All divisional secretaries have to be tasked with identifying 20% of Sri Lankans who really deserve state assistance.

The Sri Lankan electorate is capable of using their franchise quite intelligently. They did demonstrate their maturity in the presidential elections candidly. People’s power to act fearlessly reoriented and well rooted in Sri Lanka with the Aragalaya movement in early 2022. Sri Lankans have proven peacefully that people’s power is always greater than those who get elected to hold power to the rest of the world. In the same spirit Sri Lankans will make the right choice in electing the next government on 14 November 2024.

This writer hopes that the next administration under President AKD will be a national and unity government. It could be a ‘Jana Balawegaya’ coalition to initiate the preliminary framework for meaningful stakeholder consultations with transparent social dialogues. The famous Philadelphia Declaration of 1944— Poverty anywhere is a danger for prosperity everywhere—should be heeded. Unless the policy-making targets bringing in incremental changes to address the issues confronted by those bottom 20% of the social pyramid, will stand in the way of bringing in the fundamental changes the majority of 80% of Sri Lankans aspire for. As reported by the media, poverty rates have nearly doubled to 23.4% of the population in 2024. A family of four needs an income of Rs. 100,000 per month to meet a minimum nutritional intake of 2030 kcal per day. These 20% will have the capacity to change the direction of the people’s mandate to govern.

Right Diagnosis of the compelling causes is half of the solution

The practice of politicians levelling various allegations against each other dominates election campaigns everywhere in the world. Most of the elections are now won by disseminating misinformation effectively through social media. Frustrated, marginalised and vulnerable groups’ expectations remain at a very high level. Hence those who are keen to stabilise the economy need to address the issues with practical solutions.

Thus, whoever gets a mandate to form the next government needs to identify the structural problems that hinder the strengthening of the producers and the consumers who are the important pillars in the real economy which drives growth.