Business

US election outcomes and trade policy changes: What it means for Sri Lanka

Published

2 years ago

2024/11/15

By Dr Asanka Wijesinghe

Now that the United States (US) election has concluded, what direction will the US’s trade policy be headed? This is one of the burning questions that many of its trading partners are asking in the aftermath of the presidential election.

A costly trade war was the outcome of the tariff hikes in 2018 – under the first term of President Trump – which was followed by retaliatory tariffs from the US’s trade partners.

Elected for a second term, he is once again proposing significant tariff increases as trade policy measures. These potential hanges in US tariff policies will have a direct impact on Sri Lanka’s export industries. The US is the top individual export destination of Sri Lanka, accounting for 23.6% of its total exports (Figure 1).Market share of export destinations of Sri Lanka: 2023

The economic justification for a global tariff on imports and its efficacy in achieving the expected results – such as the reshoring of manufacturing employment to the US and price reduction – remains uncertain. This article mainly focuses on the adverse impacts of a tariff increase on Sri Lanka’s exports to the US.

Future of US Trade Policy

The consumer subsidy-based industrial policy, introduced under the Inflation Reduction Act by the incumbent US administration is expected to continue.

However, the effect of a tariff is more direct than a consumer subsidy. On the campaign trail, the US president-elect proposed 10 percentage points on US imports. This is understood as an additional 10% tariff, rather than a new minimum tariff. It implies that there will be an additional 10 percentage point tariff on the existing average tariff rate of 12.6% on the wearing apparel sector, for instance, if the proposed tariff is implemented

The precise rate of the tariff increase remains ambiguous, as a proposal for a 20% additional tariff was suggested later instead of the 10%. In addition, a 60% to 100% tariff is proposed on imports from China. Also, a more complex, country-specific retaliatory tariff schedule has been proposed to align US tariffs with the rates that the US products face in each country.

Effect of a US Global Tariff on

Sri Lankan Exports

An increase in the US tariffs is likely to reduce consumer demand for imported goods. Additionally, an economic downturn in the European Union (EU), triggered by a trade conflict between the US and its trading partners, could further suppress demand for Sri Lanka’s exports.

If an additional 20% tariff is applied on top of the existing average tariffs for all countries, estimates show that Sri Lanka’s exports to the US are expected to suffer a significant negative impact (Figure 2). For example, wearing apparel, Sri Lanka’s major export sector will experience a loss of USD 187.9 Million. As a percentage, this is a contraction of 8.1% from the base year, 2022.

According to the estimates, the proposed tariffs will severely impact Sri Lanka’s exports of rubber and plastic products, as well as other manufactured products like Christmas decorations, brooms and brushes (Figure 2).

As a percentage, about 90% of export loss can be expected in the chemical products sector which includes activated carbon, and essential oil.

If the US imposes a 60% to 100% tariff on imports from China, relatively high pricing on Chinese products could benefit countries like Sri Lanka from trade diversion.

However, the overall rise in import prices resulting from a broader trade war will drastically reduce the US demand for imports, limiting the gains from this trade diversion.

The US trade partners will retaliate with tariffs, similar to the China-US trade war in 2018. The proposed tariff is estimated to cost an average US household more than USD 2,600 a year, once retaliatory tariffs are factored into the analysis. Additionally, the slowdown of US growth, as a possible consequence of a tariff war, will further reduce the country’s import demand.

The spillover effects of tariff wars will also negatively affect Sri Lanka as the EU countries are expected to experience a substantial economic setback. It is estimated that the EU may see its GDP erode by 1.5%, or about Euro 260 billion.

An economic contraction in the EU will reduce the EU imports from Sri Lanka significantly. Thus, the estimated effects in this article can be considered only as the first-round effects.

Campaign Rhetoric or a Credible Threat? The ikelihood of Tariff Hikes and

Sri Lanka’s Options

A blanket tariff increase and an intense trade war between China and the US will drive up the domestic prices in the US, fuelling fear of inflationary pressure. Accordingly, it is unlikely that the proposed tariffs will be fully implemented given the significant impact of inflation on elections in the US.

As the protectionist measures target the US’s manufacturing sector, sub-sectors like light household equipment, decorations, metal products, and machinery may become more vulnerable to future tariff shocks.

These non-traditional exports of Sri Lanka play a major role in export diversification and are generally more complex and technologically sophisticated.

As a small exporting economy, Sri Lanka is susceptible to external factors that are beyond its control. Additionally, Sri Lanka’s limited role as a purchaser of US commodities limits its ability to negotiate lower tariffs. As a result, the toolbox of responses to future US tariff shocks contains only marginal adjustments.

These may include offering import tariff relief for raw materials and providing production subsidies, such as electricity subsidies, to support domestic producers in maintaining their competitiveness. A consultation with the producers in this regard will enable the government to determine the most effective policy measures.

In the medium term, given the global rise of protectionist and industrial policy measures in major export destinations, Sri Lanka will need to maintain preferential tariffs in other regions like the EU.

It will be vital for Sri Lanka to maintain the GSP+ preference and renewed attempts for increased cumulation to increase the GSP+ utilisation will benefit Sri Lanka.

As the expected high tariffs and the technical barriers in the US and the EU are probable in the future, Sri Lanka should maintain the trade policy reforms aiming to join regional trading blocs like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

Dr Asanka Wijesinghe is a Research Fellow at IPS with research interests in macroeconomic policy, international trade, labour and health economics.

He holds a BSc in Agricultural Technology and Management from the University of Peradeniya, an MS in Agribusiness and Applied Economics from North Dakota State University, and an MS and PhD in Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics from The Ohio State University.

(Talk with Asanka – asanka@ips.lk)

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Business

Cost-effective clearance of goods across borders to determine worth of Customs Paperless Declaration

Published

6 hours ago

2026/09/25

Thilina Walpola

Containers held up at the Port of Colombo

By Ifham Nizam

The introduction of the Customs Paperless Declaration from October 1 could mark an important step in Sri Lanka’s efforts to modernise trade, but its real value will depend on whether it reduces the time and cost of moving goods through the country’s borders, Customs House Agents & Traders Association President Mohamed Niyas said.

Niyas warned that digitising Customs declarations alone would not necessarily translate into faster cargo clearance or lower costs for businesses.

‘Expecting a dramatic improvement in clearance speed under the present conditions is like expecting Ferrari performance from a Morris Minor configuration, he said.

For importers and exporters, the issue extends well beyond paperwork. Every additional hour or day that cargo remains in the clearance chain can have wider consequences for businesses, including increased port and storage-related costs, additional working-capital requirements, uncertainty over delivery schedules and disruptions to production and distribution.

Niyas said the competitiveness of Sri Lanka’s trading sector ultimately depended on how efficiently goods could move through the country’s border-clearance system.

‘The real bottleneck is not merely the absence of paper. It is the entire clearance ecosystem—the limitations of the existing ASYCUDA World system, excessive regulatory interventions by Other

Government Agencies, multiple approvals, physical examinations, manual interventions, fragmented processes and institutional constraints, he said.

He cautioned that unless these bottlenecks were addressed, there was a risk that the paperless initiative would merely digitise existing bureaucracy.

‘If these underlying constraints remain unchanged, there is a real risk that the new paperless system could become another “copy-and-paste road show”—where an old, complex clearance process is simply transferred onto a digital screen without fundamentally changing the process itself, Niyas said.

For businesses dependent on imported raw materials, machinery, components and other inputs, clearance efficiency can directly affect the wider supply chain.

Delays at the border can create uncertainty for manufacturers, distributors and retailers, while exporters can face difficulties meeting delivery schedules when imported inputs or export consignments are held up.

Niyas therefore argued that the success of the October 1 initiative should be judged by its impact on trade flows rather than by the number of declarations processed electronically.

‘Paperless does not automatically mean faster, he said. ‘Digitising a slow process does not make the process fast. It only makes the slow process digital.’

He said Sri Lanka needed to move towards what he described as “process-less Customs”—a system in which unnecessary procedures are eliminated rather than simply converted into electronic procedures.

Among the reforms he called for are simplification of Customs declarations and approval workflows, improvements to the functionality of ASYCUDA World, greater use of risk-based inspections and better integration of Other Government Agency approvals.

Niyas also called for the elimination of repetitive document submissions and physical endorsements, greater use of pre-arrival processing, sufficient capacity for digital document uploads and clearly defined service-level timelines for Customs and OGAs.

Business

China backs Sri Lanka’s Non-aligned stance to counter regional pressures

Published

6 hours ago

2026/09/25

Thilina Walpola

Chinese Ambassador Wei Huaxiang delivering the keynote address in Colombo

By Sanath Nanayakkare

As global attention has fixed on the high-level diplomatic choreography at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, a subtler, yet profound geopolitical signal was sent from Colombo, yesterday.

In a major address marking the founding anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, newly appointed Chinese Ambassador Wei Huaxiang chose to anchor bilateral relations not just in modern trade or infrastructure, but in a shared respect for Sri Lanka’s legacy of non-aligned independence.

By explicitly invoking Sri Lanka’s foundational role in the 1976 Non-Aligned Summit, Beijing was doing something unexpected in an era defined by fierce great-power rivalry: it was officially validating a small island nation’s right to maintain an independent foreign policy stance.

The Strategic Value of Independence

For decades, nations caught in the crosshairs of major-power competition have faced intense pressure to pick sides. Yet, Ambassador Wei’s embrace of Colombo’s non-aligned tradition signaled a different diplomatic playbook. Instead of demanding alignment, Beijing was framing its partnership as a reliable counterbalance to regional pressures. By honouring Sri Lanka’s diplomatic autonomy, China was effectively reassuring smaller economies that sovereign independence and robust economic cooperation can coexist.

Beyond Ports and Industrial Zones

This diplomatic framing reframed the narrative surrounding major collaborative ventures like the Colombo Port City and Hambantota Port. While foreign analysts often view these projects exclusively through the lens of strategic rivalry, Beijing’s diplomatic messaging tied them back to a historical ethos of solidarity—evoking memories of the 1952 Rubber-Rice Pact.

By marrying economic projects with a stated respect for non-alignment, China is positioning itself as a steadfast stakeholder that respects Sri Lanka’s internal agency during difficult economic and political seasons.

As both nations look toward major milestones in 2027—including the 70th anniversary of diplomatic ties—this nuanced diplomatic move revealed how historic traditions are being leveraged to navigate modern multipolar realities.

For global observers, the takeaway was clear: in the shifting architecture of Asian geopolitics, respecting a nation’s historical neutrality may just be the most effective way to secure a lasting partnership, a diplomatic masterclass that Ambassador Wei Huaxiang executed in style.

Business

Sri Lanka Insurance Life appoints Dr. Sameera Dharmasena Chief Executive Officer

Published

6 hours ago

2026/09/25

Thilina Walpola

Dr. Sameera Dharmasena

Sri Lanka Insurance Life (SLIC Life), the nation’s largest and strongest Life Insurer, is pleased to announce the appointment of Dr. Sameera Dharmasena as its new Chief Executive Officer, effective 22nd September 2026.

Dr. Dharmasena is a distinguished insurance professional with over 21 years of experience in the Sri Lankan insurance industry, having held senior leadership positions across several leading insurance companies affiliated with some of Sri Lanka’s largest business conglomerates. His extensive career spans both local and multinational insurance environments, bringing together broad industry expertise, strategic leadership and a strong commitment to the advancement of the insurance profession.