Features
THE CASE FOR OUR COSMIC ANCESTRY
New data signals a major paradigm shift in science
by Chandra Wickramasinghe
(Vidya Jyothi Professor Chandra Wickramasinghe, MBE, is an Honorary Professor at the University of Buckingham, UK, Honorary Professor at Ruhuna University, Sri Lanka and Adjunct Professor at the National Institute of Fundamental Science, Sri Lanka)
How did life arise? Not just on the Earth, but anywhere in the Universe? Does life emerge on every Earth-like planet that have oceans and an atmosphere by spontaneous processes involving well understood laws of physics and chemistry? Or did it involve an extraordinary, even miraculous intervention?
How old is the universe itself? How did it originate, if it indeed did ever originate? Is there evidence of life outside the Earth? In comets, the space between stars in our Milky Way galaxy, on other planets, in other galaxies? Science must necessarily exclude miraculous options of course, but the questions continue to be asked and demand answers. Many of these questions have an antiquity that predates Western traditions that go back to classical Greece in the first century BCE. The answers may have a genesis that goes outside the realm of Western culture. The concepts of zero, infinity (Ananta) all have an Indian origin and are inextricably linked with Hinduism and Buddhism. It could well be for this reason that the idea of an infinite universe has been so forcefully resisted in Western science!
In the past six months many strongly-held opinions in science have been challenged by the arrival of new data. We may be now ever closer to finding answers to the age-old questions to our cosmic ancestry and the origin of the universe.
The James Webb Space Telescope (Webb) launched in 2021 is the most powerful astronomical observatory surpassing the range and capabilities of the earlier Hubble Space Telescope. It was designed to see deeper and further into our origins: from the formation of stars and planets, to the birth or possible birth of the Universe itself. Webb is an international partnership between NASA, ESA and CSA.
Discoveries using the new James Webb Telescope have shown the existence of galaxies that are much older than the age of the currently fashionable Big Bang model of the universe itself – a universe which is just 13.8 billion years old, barely three times the age of the Earth.
This unimpressive smudge of light called CEERS-93316 (Fig.1) was observed by the James Webb Telescope and is presumed to be the most distant galaxy at a distance of about 35 billion light years. This latest discovery, amongst others, lend support to ideas of a steady-state universe with an infinite age, or models of the cosmos involving alternating phases of creation and destruction. These emerging models of the cosmos are remarkably in agreement with ancient Vedic, Hindu and Buddhist ideas.
Another equally important paradigm shift that is happening now relates to the question of the origin of life, and the connection between life on Earth and the wider universe. The Kepler Orbiting Telescope in launched in 2009 was dedicated to discovering habitable Earth-like planets in our galaxy outside the solar system. A large number of such habitable planets have been discovered so far, and a few weeks ago the James Web Telescope was deployed to study one of these exoplanets in some detail.
This “Earth-twin” known by the name K2-186 is located some 120 light years from the Earth. The surprising discovery was a molecule called dimethyl sulphide, along with carbon dioxide and methane, in the atmosphere of K2-186 that has been hailed as definite evidence of extraterrestrial life. The argument hinges on the fact that the molecule dimethyl sulphide appears to be only produced by biology on the Earth – by marine plankton in particular. So rather belatedly scientists have accepted that a second living planet exists 120 light years away from the Earth. So, the outstanding question now is how and by what processes did life originate on this planet? Or indeed on any other planet?
The long-held view (going all the way back to Aristotle in the third century BCE) is that life emerged and emerges easily and “naturally” on a planet like Earth (or on K2-186, for that matter) as soon as the “right conditions” prevail. The modern version of this concept that has been defended from the dawn of the 20th century is the so-called “theory of spontaneous generation”. Without any substantive proof for it and a great deal of contrary evidence this concept remains part of the holy grail of biology.
According to this theory of spontaneous generation organic molecules in the Earth’s oceans are supposed to assemble themselves naturally into primitive living systems that subsequently evolve over billions of years to produce the magnificent panorama of life of which we form the most trivial part. Needless to say, there was never any substantive evidence to support this point of view, but nevertheless it was one that has been accepted by the entire establishment of science, more or less like an act of faith.
Experiments to “prove” the process if spontaneous generation and to synthesize life from non-life have continued to be conducted in the most advanced biotechnology laboratories across the world for well over half a century. Every attempt that has been made to replicate the process of spontaneous generation in the laboratory under the widest possible range of conditions has ended in dismal failure. The reason is simple: the probability hurdle needed to go from non-living organics to the simplest evolvable living system is of a scale that is super-astronomical. The origin of life requires a system that transcends the scale of the Earth, our solar system, our Milky Way Galaxy and perhaps involves the entire universe, that is now appearing to be possibly infinite in scale.
The alternative to spontaneous generation of life is the concept of life being a cosmic phenomenon or panspermia as it has come to be called. This basic idea has an antiquity in Western tradition that predates Aristotle and is attributed to the pre-Socratic philosopher Anaxoragas. Anaxoragas suggested that the seeds of life are all pervasive in the cosmos and they take root and develop into living entities whenever the right conditions prevail. This is the theory of Panspermia (from Greek roots: Spermata – seed; Pans – everywhere). Similar ideas are implied in Buddhist, Hindu and Vedic cosmologies and of course these predate the ancient Greeks by many centuries.
From the 1970’s onward the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present writer became torch bearers for the theory of cosmic life which was a revived form of the ancient theory of panspermia. The starting point in our investigations involved the identification of cosmic dust, the trillions upon trillions of micrometre-sized “dust” that makes up a few percent of the mass of the entire Galaxy, and shows up as conspicuous dark clouds and striation against the background of stars in the Milky Way. By 1984 we had accumulated enough astronomical evidence to conclude that a very large fraction of this cosmic dust in fact linked to life – bacteria and viruses in various stages of decay and degradation, but still largely preserving the information required to initiate life on any habitable Earth-like planet.
Case against spontaneous generation of life
The most powerful single argument for life being a cosmic rather than a purely terrestrial phenomenon was articulated by the late Sir Fred Hoyle way back in 1980, summarizing the position that we had reached at the time:
“The very small probabilities, which one calculates for the assembly of these substances (e.g. enzymes), demonstrates as near to certainty as one would wish that life did not originate here on the Earth. Indeed, the infinitesimal probabilities demonstrate that life is even too complex for its origin to be confined within our galaxy alone. The resources of the whole universe were almost certainly needed……”
If there was a deep principle of nature that drove inorganic systems towards the emergence of primitive life – the evidence for this would have long since been discovered in the laboratory, which as we noted, has not. Moreover, with calculations showing grotesquely low a priori probabilities for the transition from non-life to life only two options remain: –
(1) The origin of life was an extremely improbable event that must have occurred on Earth against all odds (because we are here!) but will consequently not be reproduced elsewhere. In that case we would indeed be hopelessly alone as a life system in the Universe.
(2) Alternatively, a very much vaster cosmic system than was available on Earth, and a very much longer timescale was involved in an initial origination event, after which life was transferred to Earth and elsewhere by processes that the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present writer proposed many years ago – cometary panspermia.
We then went on to argue that this cosmologically-derived legacy of life, along with its full evolutionary potential (contained within the genomes of bacteria and viruses), were distributed mainly by comets and other repositories of cosmic dust onto habitable planets like the Earth. Comets in this theory are incubators and distributors of the information of life throughout the universe in the form of bacteria and viruses.
Whilst in 2023 comets are conceded by most scientists as being the repositories of complex organic molecules that may have contributed to spontaneous generation of life, their role as carriers of life itself, despite an ever-increasing body of contrary evidence is still fiercely resisted. Hard evidence of comets containing organic molecules that can only reasonably be derived from biology are coming in fast and thick. The Rosetta Space Mission to a comet – Comet 67P/C-G – launched in 2013 has yielded a formidable body of evidence, all showing consistency with the existence of microbial material in comets.
Another comet, Comet Lovejoy, has more recently been observed and found to be emitting large amounts of ethyl alcohol as well as a type of sugar into space – equivalent to 500 bottles of wine per second. These are the natural products of fermentation, which is clear evidence for sub-surface microbial activity in a comet.
Are cosmic bacteria continually falling to Earth?
One crucial test of the theory of cosmic life is to probe the stratosphere for in-falling alien genetic systems – bacteria and viruses. To urge international space authorities with the capability of doing this was far from easy. The first dedicated effort to test the idea of bacterial in-fall from comets was carried out in collaboration with scientists at ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation) in 2001.
Positive detections of in-falling microbiota were made, and the number of bacterial cells collected in a measured volume of the stratosphere at 41km led to an estimate of an in-fall rate over the whole Earth of 0.3-3 tonnes of microbes per day. This converts to some 20-200 million bacteria per square metre arriving from space every single day.
Very recently microorganisms were discovered on many occasions between 2013 and 2017 on the outside of the International Space Station that orbits at 400km above the Earth. There is no easy way to maintain that such microorganisms could have been lofted from the surface of the Earth.
This discovery is so profoundly important for science that it needs to be repeated; but the desire to repeat it is difficult to find. A similar experiment, however, is being planned by a team of scientists led by Professor Dhammika Maganarachchi at the National Institute of Fundamental Studies and myself. A balloon launch to this end is being planned within the next six months. The team at NIFS will be assisted by my grandson, Reuben Chandra Wickramasinghe, who has a visiting appointment at the Mathematics Department of the University of Colombo.
Concluding remarks
I believe that in 2023 we have reached a crucial turning point in the history of human civilization. When it is finally accepted that life on Earth is a minuscule part of a vast cosmic biosphere the implications for humanity will be profound. Even more important would be the recognition that alien life in the form of microbes – bacteria and viruses – exist in our very midst even now and are continually raining down on our planet. Such microbes could be responsible for devastating pandemics, but more positively, we should recognise cosmic viruses and bacteria could have the potential to augment our genomes – the genomes of all terrestrial lifeforms – and over long periods unravel an ever-changing panorama of cosmic life.
Whilst advances in technology continue at accelerating pace humanity as a whole is becoming ever more fractured. Wars and bitter sectarian conflicts and heart-rending suffering are to be seen everywhere. The “climate-change” marches and protestations of young people that are gaining momentum are perhaps emblematic of a desire to rebel against reigning paradigms that seem to be threatening our very existence.
Thomas Kuhn famously declared “…when paradigms change, the world changes with them.” One could perhaps assert that a reversal of this causality is also possible – “when the world changes paradigms can be forced to change.”
Further reading
Wickramasinghe, N.C. and Wickramasinghe, R.C., 2023. Life and the Universe: a final synthesis, Journal of Cosmology, Vol. 30, No.10, pp. 30160 – 30174
Wickramasinghe, C., Wickramasinghe, K., Tokoro, G., 2019. Our Cosmic Ancestry in the Stars (Inner Traditions, NY)
Features
Your six-year-old needs a tablet like a fish needs a smartphone
THE GREAT DIGITAL RETHINK — PART II
Nordic countries handed tablets to toddlers and called it early childhood education. Now they’re taking the tablets back, handing out pencils, and hoping nobody noticed. Meanwhile, the Global South is still signing the tablet contracts. Someone should probably warn them.
The Tablet Arrives in Preschool
It is 2013, a government minister stands in a preschool in Stockholm, handing a shiny tablet to a four-year-old. Press cameras click. A press release announces that Sweden is building the digital classrooms of the future. The child, who until recently had been learning to hold a crayon, now swipes confidently at a screen. Innovation! Progress! The future!
Fast forward to 2023, the same Swedish government, or at least its successors, announces that preschools were wrong to make digital devices mandatory. Children’s reading comprehension is declining. Books are going back on the shelves. Pencils are making a comeback. The preschool tablets are being quietly wheeled into storage, and nobody wants to talk about the press release.
What Finland Actually Did — And Is Now Undoing
Finland has long held a special place in the global education imagination. When PISA scores are published and Finland sits at or near the top, education ministers from Seoul to São Paulo take note and wonder what they are doing wrong. Finland is the benchmark. Finland is the proof that good education is possible.
Which makes it all the more significant that Finland, in 2025, passed legislation banning mobile phones from classrooms. Not just recommending restraint. Not just issuing guidelines. Banning them, with teachers empowered to confiscate devices that disrupt learning. The law covers both primary and secondary schools. It came after years of evidence that children were distracted, and that Finland’s own PISA scores had been falling.
But the phone ban is only part of the story. The deeper shift in Finnish primary education has been a quiet reassertion of analogue fundamentals. Early literacy is being treated again as a craft that requires time, patience, practice and, crucially, a pencil.
Sweden gave tablets to toddlers. Then took them back. The pencils were in a drawer the whole time.
Sweden’s Spectacular U-Turn
Sweden’s reversal is arguably the most dramatic in recent educational history, because Sweden had gone further than most in embracing early-years digitalisation. The country had not merely allowed devices in preschool, it had in places mandated them, treating digital interaction as a developmental right alongside physical play and social learning. There was a logic to it, however misplaced: if the future is digital, surely children should encounter that future as early as possible.
The problem is that young children are not miniature adults navigating a digital workplace. They are human beings in the early stages of acquiring language, developing fine-motor-skills, building concentration and learning to regulate their own attention. These are not processes that are enhanced by a swipeable screen. Research on early childhood development is consistent on this point: young children learn language through conversation, storytelling, and physical manipulation of objects. They learn to write by writing, by the slow, muscular, tactile process of forming letters with a hand.
By 2023, Swedish education authorities had seen enough. Reading comprehension scores were down. Handwriting was deteriorating. Teachers were reporting that children were arriving in primary school unable to hold a pen properly. The policy reversed. Books came back. Cursive writing was reintroduced. The national curriculum was amended. And Sweden became, instead, a cautionary tale about what happens when you swap crayons for touchscreens before children have learned what crayons are for.
Australia: Banning Phones at Lunch
Australia’s approach to primary school digitalisation has been somewhat less ideologically charged than Scandinavia’s, and accordingly its reversal has been more pragmatic than philosophical. Australian states and territories arrived at phone bans largely through the accumulating pressure of parent complaints, teacher frustration and growing evidence that smartphones were damaging the social fabric of school life, not just in classrooms, but in playgrounds.
Queensland’s ‘away for the day’ policy, introduced in Term 1 of 2024, was notable precisely because it extended beyond lesson time to cover break times as well. This was a direct acknowledgement that the problem was not simply digital distraction during learning, it was the way that always-on connectivity was transforming childhood itself. Children who spend every break time on a phone are not playing, not resolving social conflicts face to face, not developing the unstructured social skills that primary school has always, if accidentally, taught.
The cyberbullying dimension added particular urgency in Australia, where research showed that many incidents of online harassment between primary-school children were occurring during school hours, facilitated by the phones sitting in their pockets. Banning the phone at the school gate did not solve the problem of online cruelty, but it did remove the school day as a venue for it.
The Science of the Pencil
The cognitive argument for handwriting in primary education is, it turns out, and far more interesting than the popular ‘screens bad, pencils good’ slogan suggests. The research on note-taking in university students, the finding that handwritten notes produce better conceptual understanding than typed notes, has a more fundamental parallel in primary education.
When a young child learns to write by hand, they are not merely practising a motor skill. They are encoding letters through physical movement, which activates memory systems that visual recognition alone does not reach. Studies in developmental psychology suggest that children who learn to write letters by hand recognise them faster and more accurately than those who learn through typing or tracing on screens. The hand, it appears, teaches the brain in ways the finger-swipe does not.
This does not mean that digital tools have no place in primary education, nobody sensible is arguing that children should graduate from primary school unable to use a keyboard. The question is sequencing and proportion. The emerging consensus, hard-won through a decade of failed experiments, is that foundational literacy and numeracy need to be established through analogue means before digital tools are introduced as supplements. Screens can follow pencils. Pencils, it turns out, cannot follow screens without catching up on what was missed.
The hand teaches the brain in ways the finger-swipe does not. And it took a decade of falling scores to rediscover this.
The Rest of the World Is Still Buying Tablets
Here is the uncomfortable part. While Finland legislates, Sweden reverses course and Australia bans phones from playgrounds, a large portion of the world’s primary schools are doing the opposite. Governments across South and Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America are actively expanding device programmes in primary schools. Tablets are being distributed. Interactive whiteboards are being installed. AI tutoring apps are being piloted. The logic is identical to the logic Finland and Sweden followed 15 years ago: modernise, digitalise, equip children for the future.
The vendors selling these systems are not telling ministers about the Swedish U-turn. The development banks financing device programmes are not adjusting their models to reflect the OECD’s inverted-U curve. The international consultants advising education ministries are largely still working from a playbook written in 2010.
The lesson of the Nordic reversal is not that screens are evil, it is that screens at the wrong stage, in the wrong proportion, without the right pedagogical framework, undermine the very foundations they are supposed to build on. That lesson is available. The question is whether anyone is listening.
What Primary Schools Actually Need
Literacy and numeracy are not enhanced by early device saturation. They are built through reading aloud, through writing by hand, through mathematical reasoning with physical objects, and through the irreplaceable medium of a skilled teacher who knows their students.
Technology in primary education works best when it supplements a strong foundation, not when it substitutes for one that has not yet been built. Sweden and Finland did not fail because they used technology. They failed because they used it too extensively, and without asking what it was actually for. That question — what is this for? — is the one that every primary school system in the world should be asking before it signs another tablet contract.
SERIES ROADMAP Part I: From Ed-Tech Enthusiasm to De-Digitalisation | Part II: Phones, Pens & Early Literacy (this article) | Part III: Attention, Algorithms & Adolescents | Part IV: Universities, AI & the Handwritten Exam | Part V: A Critical Theory of Educational De-Digitalisation
(The writer, a senior Chartered Accountant and professional banker, is Professor at SLIIT, Malabe. The views and opinions expressed in this article are personal.)
Features
Government is willing to address the past
Minister Bimal Rathnayake has urged all Sri Lankan refugees in India to return to Sri Lanka, stating that provision has been made for their reintegration. He called on India to grant citizenship to those who wished to stay on in India, but added that the government would welcome them back with both hands if they chose Sri Lanka. He gave due credit to the Organisation for Eelam Refugees Rehabilitation (OfERR), an NGO led by S. C. Chandrahasan, the son of S. J. V. Chelvanayakam, widely regarded as the foremost advocate of a federal solution and a historic leader of the Federal Party. OfERR has for decades assisted refugees, particularly Sri Lankan Tamils in India, with documentation, advocacy and voluntary repatriation support. Given the slow pace of resettlement of Ditwah cyclone victims, the government will need to make adequate preparations for an influx of Indian returnees for which it will need all possible assistance. The minister’s acknowledgement indicates that the government appreciates the work of NGOs when they directly assist people.
The issue of Sri Lankan refugees in India is a legacy of the three-decade long war that induced mass migration of Tamil people to foreign countries. According to widely cited estimates, the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora today exceeds one million and is often placed between 1 and 1.5 million globally, with large communities in Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia. India, particularly Tamil Nadu, continues to host a significant refugee population. Current figures indicate that approximately 58,000 to 60,000 Sri Lankan Tamil refugees live in camps in India, with a further 30,000 to 35,000 living outside camps, bringing the total to around 90,000. These numbers have declined over time but remain one of the most visible human legacies of the conflict.
The fact that the government has chosen to make this announcement at this time indicates that it is not attempting to gloss over the human rights issues of the past that continue into the present. Those who suffered victimisation during the war may be encouraged that their concerns remain on the national agenda and have not been forgotten. Apart from those who continue to be refugees in India, there are more than 14,000 complaints of missing persons still under investigation according to the Office on Missing Persons, which has received tens of thousands of complaints since its establishment. There are also unresolved issues of land taken over by the military as high security zones, though some land has been released, and prisoners held in long term detention under the Prevention of Terrorism Act, which the government has pledged to repeal and replace.
Sequenced Response
In addressing the issue of Sri Lankan Tamil refugees in India, the government is sending a message to the Tamil people that it is not going to gloss over the past. The indications are that the government is sequencing its responses to problems arising from the past. The government faces a range of urgent challenges, some inherited from previous governments, such as war era human rights concerns, and others that have arisen more recently after it took office. The most impactful of these crises are not of its own making. Global economic instability has affected Sri Lanka significantly. The Middle East war has contributed to a shortage of essential fuels and fertilizers worldwide. Sri Lanka is particularly vulnerable to rising fuel prices. Just months prior to these global pressures, Sri Lanka faced severe climate related shocks, including being hit by a cyclone that led to floods and landslides across multiple districts and caused loss of life and extensive damage to property and livelihoods.
From the beginning of its term, the government has been compelled to prioritise economic recovery and corruption linked to the economy, which were central to its electoral mandate. As the International Monetary Fund has emphasised, Sri Lanka must continue reforms to restore macroeconomic stability, reduce debt vulnerabilities and strengthen governance. The economic problems that the government must address are urgent and affect all communities, whether in the north or south, and across Sinhalese, Tamil and Muslim populations. These problems cannot be postponed. However, issues such as dealing with the past, holding provincial council elections and reforming the constitution are not experienced as equally urgent by the majority, even though they are of deep importance to minorities. Indeed, the provincial council system was designed to address the concerns of the minorities and a solution to their problems.
Unresolved grievances tend to reappear in new forms when not addressed through political processes. Therefore, they need to be addressed sooner rather than later, even if they are not the most immediate priorities for the government. It must not be forgotten that the ethnic conflict and the three decade long war it generated was the single most destructive blow to the country, greatly diminishing its prospects for rapid economic development. Prolonged conflict reduced investment, diverted public expenditure and weakened institutions. If Sri Lanka’s early leaders had been able to negotiate peacefully and resolve their differences, the country might have fulfilled predictions that it could become the “Switzerland of the East.”
Present Opportunity
The present government has a rare opportunity to address the issues of the past in a way that ensures long term peace and justice. It has a two thirds majority in parliament, giving it the constitutional space to undertake significant reforms. It has also demonstrated a more inclusive approach to ethnic and religious minorities than many earlier governments which either mobilized ethnic nationalism for its own purposes or feared it too much to take political risks to undertake necessary reforms. Public trust in the government, as noted by international observers, remains relatively strong. During her recent visit, IMF Director General Kristalina Georgieva stated that “there is a window of opportunity for Sri Lanka,” noting that public trust in the government provides a foundation for reform.
It also appears that decades of public education on democracy, human rights and coexistence have had positive effects. This education, carried out by civil society organisations over several decades, sometimes in support of government initiatives and more often in the face of government opposition, provides a foundation for political reform aimed at justice and reconciliation. Civil society initiatives, inter-ethnic dialogue and rights-based advocacy have contributed to shaping a more informed public about controversial issues such as power-sharing, federalism and accountability for war crimes. The government would do well to expand the appreciation it has deservedly given to OfERR to other NGOs that have dedicated themselves addressing the ethnic and religious mistrust in the country and creating greater social cohesion.
The challenge for the government is to engage in reconciliation without undue delay, even as other pressures continue to grow. Sequencing is necessary, but indefinite postponement carries risks. If this opportunity for conflict resolution is not taken, it may be a long time before another presents itself. Sri Lanka may then continue to underperform economically, remaining an ethnically divided polity, not in open warfare, but constrained by unresolved tensions. The government’s recent reference to Tamil refugees in India is therefore significant. It shows that even while prioritising urgent economic and global challenges, it has not forgotten the past. Sri Lanka has a government with both the mandate and the capacity to address that past in a manner that secures a more stable and just future for all its people.
By Jehan Perera
Features
Strategic diplomacy at Sea: Reading the signals from Hormuz
The unfolding tensions and diplomatic manoeuvres around the Strait of Hormuz offer more than a snapshot of regional instability. They reveal a deeper transformation in global statecraft, one where influence is exercised through calibrated engagement rather than outright confrontation. This is strategic diplomacy in its modern form: restrained, calculated, and layered with competing interests.
At first glance, the current developments may appear as routine diplomatic exchanges aimed at preventing escalation. However, beneath the surface lies a complex web of signalling among major and middle powers. The United States seeks to maintain deterrence without triggering an open conflict. Iran aims to resist pressure while avoiding isolation. Meanwhile, China and India, two rising powers with expanding global interests are navigating the situation with careful precision.
China’s position is anchored in economic pragmatism. As a major importer of Gulf energy, Beijing has a direct stake in ensuring that the Strait of Hormuz remains open and stable. Any disruption would reverberate through its industrial base and global supply chains. Consequently, China advocates de-escalation and diplomatic resolution. Yet, this is not purely altruistic. Stability serves China’s long-term strategic ambitions, including the protection of its Belt and Road investments and maritime routes. At the same time, Beijing remains alert to India’s growing diplomatic footprint in the region. Should India deepen its engagement with Iran and other Gulf actors, it could gradually reshape the strategic balance in areas traditionally influenced by China.
India’s approach, in contrast, reflects a confident and increasingly sophisticated foreign policy. By engaging Iran directly, while maintaining working relationships with Western powers, New Delhi is positioning itself as a credible intermediary. This is not merely about energy security, though that remains a key driver. It is also about strategic autonomy the ability to act independently in a multipolar world. India’s diplomacy signals that it is no longer a passive player but an active shaper of regional outcomes. Its engagement with Iran, particularly in the context of connectivity and trade routes, underscores its intent to secure long-term strategic access while countering potential encirclement.
Iran, for its part, views the situation through the lens of survival and strategic resilience. Years of sanctions and pressure have shaped a cautious but pragmatic diplomatic posture. Engagement with external actors, including India and China, provides Tehran with avenues to ease isolation and assert relevance. However, Iran’s trust deficit remains significant. Its diplomacy is transactional, focused on immediate gains rather than long-term alignment. The current environment offers opportunities for tactical advantage, but Iran is unlikely to make concessions that could compromise its core strategic objectives.
Even actors on the periphery, such as North Korea, are closely observing these developments. Pyongyang interprets global events through a narrow but consistent framework: regime survival through deterrence. The situation around Iran reinforces its belief that leverage, particularly military capability, is a prerequisite for meaningful negotiation. While North Korea is not directly involved, it draws lessons that may shape its own strategic calculations.
What emerges from these varied perspectives is a clear departure from traditional bloc-based geopolitics. The world is moving towards a more fluid and fragmented order, where alignments are temporary and issue-specific. States cooperate on certain matters while competing with others. This creates a dynamic but unpredictable environment, where misinterpretation and miscalculation remain constant risks.
It is within this evolving context that Sri Lanka’s strategic relevance becomes increasingly visible. The recent visit by the US Special Envoy for South and Central Asia, Sergio Gor, to the Colombo Port; is not a routine diplomatic courtesy call. It is a signal. Ports are no longer just commercial gateways; they are strategic assets embedded in global power competition. A visit of this nature underscores how Sri Lanka’s maritime infrastructure is being viewed through a geopolitical lens particularly in relation to sea lane security, logistics, and regional influence.
Such engagements reflect a broader reality: global powers are not only watching the Strait of Hormuz but are also positioning themselves along the wider Indian Ocean network that connects it. Colombo, situated along one of the busiest east–west shipping routes, becomes part of this extended strategic theatre. The presence and interest of external actors in Sri Lanka’s ports highlight an emerging pattern of influence without overt control a hallmark of modern strategic diplomacy.
For Sri Lanka, these developments are far from abstract. The island’s strategic location along major Indian Ocean shipping routes places it at the intersection of these global currents. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for global energy flows, and any disruption would have immediate consequences for Sri Lanka’s economy, particularly in terms of fuel prices and supply stability.
Moreover, Sri Lanka must manage the competing interests of larger powers operating within its vicinity. India’s expanding regional role, China’s entrenched economic presence, and the growing attention from the United States all converge in the Indian Ocean. This requires a careful balancing act. Aligning too closely with any one power risks alienating others, while inaction could leave Sri Lanka vulnerable to external pressures.
The appropriate response lies in adopting a robust foreign policy that engages all major stakeholders while preserving national autonomy. This involves strengthening diplomatic channels, enhancing maritime security capabilities, and investing in strategic foresight. Sri Lanka must also recognise the growing importance of non-traditional security domains, including cyber threats and information warfare, which increasingly accompany geopolitical competition.
Equally important is the need for internal coherence. Effective diplomacy abroad must be supported by institutional strength at home. Policy consistency, professional expertise, and strategic clarity are essential if Sri Lanka is to navigate an increasingly complex international environment.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz thus serves as both a warning and an opportunity. It highlights the fragility of global systems, but also underscores the potential for skilled diplomacy to manage tensions. For Sri Lanka, the challenge is not merely to observe these developments, but to position itself wisely within them.
In a world where power is no longer exercised solely through force, but through influence and presence, strategic diplomacy becomes not just an option, but a necessity. The nations that succeed will be those that understand this shift now and act with clarity, balance, and foresight.
Mahil Dole is a senior Sri Lankan police officer with over four decades of experience in law enforcement and intelligence. He previously served as Head of the Counter-Terrorism Division of the State Intelligence Service and has conducted extensive interviews with more than 100 suicide cadres linked to terrorist organisations. He is a graduate of the Asia-Pacific Centre for Security Studies (Hawaii).
By Mahil Dole
Senior Police Officer (Retd.), Former Head of Counter-Terrorism Division, State Intelligence Service, Sri Lanka
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