Business
Oil at $150 will trigger global recession, says boss of financial giant BlackRock
If the price of oil hits $150 a barrel it will trigger a global recession, the boss of US financial giant BlackRock has told the BBC.
Larry Fink, who leads the world’s largest asset manager, said if Iran “remains a threat” and oil prices stay high it will have “profound implications” for the world economy.
In a wide-ranging exclusive interview, he also denied there was an AI bubble, although he said the new technology meant too many people were pursuing university degrees and not enough doing technical training.
BlackRock is a financial colossus, controlling assets worth $14 trillion (£10.5tn), and is one of the biggest investors in many of the world’s largest companies.
Its size and spread gives Fink – who is one of the eight co-founders of the business, which started in 1988 – a unique insight into the health of the global economy.
The conflict in the Middle East has triggered wild moves on financial markets as people try to assess what will happen to energy costs.
For Fink, it is too early to determine the ultimate scale and outcome of the conflict, but he believes it will be one of two extreme scenarios.
In one, if the conflict is settled and Iran becomes a country that can be accepted again by the international community then the price of oil could fall back to below where it stood before the war.
But if not, he says, then there could be “years of above $100, closer to $150 oil, which has profound implications in the economy” and an outcome of “a probably stark and steep recession”.
The surge in energy costs has led to some in the UK to argue that it should be focusing more on producing its own oil and gas.
On Tuesday, industry body Offshore Energies UK said that without more domestic production, the country risks becoming reliant on imports “at a time of rising global instability”.
Fink says countries need to be pragmatic about their energy mix by using all sources available to them, but providing cheap energy is key to driving growth and raising living standards.
“Rising energy prices is a very regressive tax. It affects the poor more than the wealthy.”
While the UK already has some solar and wind power and hydrocarbons, if oil prices were to rise to $150 for three or four years, “you would have so many countries moving so rapidly towards solar and maybe even wind”.
Countries should not depend on just one source, he says.
“Use what you have unquestionably, but also aggressively move towards alternative sources too.”
Some analysts have suggested that there are some echoes of the run-up to the 2007-08 financial crisis in the markets at the moment.
Energy prices are surging and some have flagged signs of cracks in the financial system. BlackRock itself is one of several firms to have limited withdrawals by nervous investors from private credit funds.
But Fink is adamant there is no chance of a repeat of the financial trauma seen in 2007-08, when several banks around the world collapsed or had to be rescued, as he believes financial institutions today are more secure.
“I don’t see any similarities at all,” he says. “Zero.”
The issues affecting some funds account for a small fraction of the overall market and investment from institutions remains strong, he says.
Fink also rejects suggestions that the surge in investment in AI, which has seen billions of dollars invested in the new technology, has been overblown.
“I do not believe we have a bubble at all,” he says.
“Could we have one or two failures in AI? Sure, that I’m fine with.”
Last year, BlackRock was part of a consortium that bought one of the world’s largest data centre providers, Aligned Data Centres, in a $40bn deal.
“I believe there’s a race for technology dominance. I believe that if we do not invest more, China wins. I believe it’s mandatory that we are aggressively building out our AI capabilities.”
The biggest issue he feels that is hindering the expansion of AI in the US and Europe is the cost of energy.
While China is investing hugely in solar and nuclear power, in Europe “I just see a lot of talk and no action”, he says, while in the US “as much as we are energy independent, we better start focusing on solar… because we need to have cheap, inexpensive power to move into AI”.
Earlier this week, in his annual letter to shareholders, Fink said the boom in artificial intelligence risked widening inequality, with only a small number of firms and investors seeing the benefits.
However, speaking to the BBC, he emphasised AI was going to create an “enormous amount of jobs”.
He said that in his letter he had written about how many jobs would be created “related to electricians and welders and plumbers”.
In contrast, there might not be as much demand for some office jobs as AI evolves and this could lead to a rethink about what roles are needed as “society is changing and evolving”.
“We really put judgement on so many jobs and so many people who probably should not have gone into banking or media or law, [who] probably should have been a great worker with their hands, and we need to now rebalance that approach,” he says.
In the US, he says, after World War Two “we built the foundation of education, and we said to all the young people, go to college, go to college, go to college. And we probably overdid it”.
“We need to balance that out, and we need to be proud that… a career can be just as strong in these fields of plumbing and electricians.”
(BBC)
Business
Earth Day warning: Environmental neglect risks undermining Sri Lanka’s economic stability — CEJ
By Ifham Nizam
Today, April 22, as the world marks Earth Day, the Centre for Environmental Justice (CEJ) warned that Sri Lanka’s fragile economic recovery could face serious setbacks if environmental degradation and climate vulnerabilities are not urgently addressed—framing sustainability as a core economic priority rather than a peripheral concern.
CEJ stressed that the country’s exposure to climate shocks—ranging from floods and droughts to coastal erosion—poses direct and escalating risks to key economic sectors including agriculture, water resources, fisheries, and infrastructure.
CEJ chairperson Hemantha Withanage stressed that Sri Lanka’s development trajectory remains dangerously disconnected from environmental realities.
He told The Island Financial Review:”Sri Lanka is highly vulnerable to climate change. Increasingly erratic weather patterns are already disrupting livelihoods, damaging crops, and straining water systems. If these risks are not integrated into economic planning, the cost to the national economy will be severe.”
The warning comes at a time when Sri Lanka is attempting to rebuild fiscal stability, attract investment, and strengthen export sectors. However, CEJ argues that environmental mismanagement—from unchecked pollution to poor land-use planning—continues to erode long-term economic resilience.
The organisation pointed out that climate-induced disasters not only incur immediate financial losses but also create cascading impacts across industries. Agricultural output declines, supply chains are disrupted, and public expenditure rises due to disaster response and infrastructure repairs—placing further pressure on an already constrained national budget.
CEJ also highlighted that unsustainable practices, including excessive plastic use and chemical pollution, carry hidden economic costs—ranging from healthcare burdens to ecosystem damage and loss of tourism appeal.
However, the group noted that policy interventions can yield measurable gains. It cited the government’s move to ban the distribution of polythene bags in supermarkets from November 2025, following a court ruling, as a step that has already contributed to a significant reduction in plastic usage.
“Policy consistency and enforcement are key. When strong environmental regulations are implemented, the benefits are not only ecological but also economic,” Withanage said.
Framing this year’s Earth Day theme, “Our Power, Our Planet,” CEJ called for a shift towards sustainable consumption patterns, green investment, and climate-resilient infrastructure.
“Environmental protection is no longer optional—it is central to economic survival and growth,” CEJ emphasised.
Business
Sampath Bank positioned for steady growth
Sampath Bank PLC reported a solid financial performance for 2025, with earnings surpassing market expectations and reinforcing investor confidence in its medium-term growth trajectory, according to a recent equity research update by First Capital Holdings PLC.
The bank recorded a net profit of LKR 32.6 billion for the full year 2025, marking a 13.5% year-on-year increase. Fourth-quarter profit came in at LKR 9.4 billion, marginally down 2% from a year earlier, largely due to base effects stemming from a one-off impairment reversal in the corresponding period of 2024.
Core banking operations remained robust. Net interest income rose 8.1% year-on-year in the final quarter, supported by strong credit expansion, while fee and commission income grew 23.2%. Total other income surged 130%, aided by improved treasury performance, including a turnaround to a trading gain compared to a loss a year earlier.
A key highlight for investors was the sharp expansion in the loan book, which grew 32.6% year-on-year to reach LKR 1.2 trillion by end-2025. Growth was driven by import financing, leasing, and long-term lending. Deposit growth, while more moderate at 11.8%, was led by gains in savings accounts.
Asset quality also improved during the year, with the Stage 3 loan ratio declining to 3.31% from 4.69% a year earlier, reflecting stronger recoveries and improved repayment capacity among borrowers. The reinstatement of parate execution laws further supported recoveries.
Capital and liquidity positions remained well above regulatory thresholds, with total capital adequacy at 17.65% and liquidity coverage at nearly 240%, providing ample buffers to sustain lending growth.
Looking ahead, First Capital forecasts earnings to grow at a more moderate pace, projecting net profits of LKR 34.7 billion in 2026 and LKR 39.9 billion in 2027, as macroeconomic momentum is expected to ease.
Reflecting broader market re-rating trends, the bank’s estimated fair value for 2026 has been revised down to LKR 165 per share, though the stock still offers an expected total return of around 18%. A 2027 fair value of LKR 180 implies a potential return of 30%.
Despite near-term headwinds, the First Capital report maintains a “buy” recommendation on Sampath Bank, citing strong fundamentals, improving asset quality, and sustained credit growth as key drivers of long-term value.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
Dialog Axiata appoints Arjuna Herath as Independent Non-Executive Director
Dialog Axiata PLC, Sri Lanka’s #1 connectivity provider, announced the appointment of Mr. Arjuna Herath as an Independent Non-Executive Director, effective 1 May 2026. Herath brings extensive experience across consulting, corporate finance, investments, and regulatory governance.
“Arjuna brings a unique blend of private sector experience and public sector leadership, with deep exposure to regulatory and institutional environments. His insights will add meaningful value to the Board as we continue to strengthen governance and navigate an increasingly dynamic digital landscape,” said David Lau, Chairman of Dialog Axiata PLC.
Herath most recently served as Chairman of the Board of Investment of Sri Lanka, contributing to national investment promotion strategy. He was also the inaugural Chair of the Sri Lanka Data Protection Authority, where he led early regulatory efforts in digital privacy. Earlier, he served as Senior Partner and Head of Consulting at Ernst & Young (EY) Sri Lanka and Maldives, and held roles in corporate development at Ceylon Tobacco Company and Merchant Bank of Sri Lanka.
He has held several key regulatory roles, including as Commissioner of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Sri Lanka, Board Member of the Sri Lanka Accounting and Auditing Standards Monitoring Board, and Member of the Company Law Advisory Commission. He currently serves as a Director of the Colombo Stock Exchange.
Herath is a Fellow Member and a Past President of The Institute of Chartered Accountants of Sri Lanka and has contributed extensively to the global accountancy profession. He is the first Sri Lankan to chair a committee of the International Federation of Accountants (IFAC), where he led the Professional Accountancy Organisation Development Committee.
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