Connect with us

Business

Sri Lanka foreign currency debt obligations due between now and 2026 amount to about US$ 29bn

Published

5 years ago

on

External liquidity pressures have eased somewhat in recent months

Planned IMF SDR allocation would also add US$780 million to reserves

Authorities have yet to specify foreign-currency debt-servicing plans for the medium term

Sri Lanka’s ‘CCC’ rating reflects a challenging foreign-currency sovereign external debt repayment burden over the medium term, low foreign-exchange reserves and high and rising government debt that give rise to sustainability risks, Fitch Ratings said on Monday.

External liquidity pressures have eased somewhat in recent months following bilateral loan disbursements, and our expectation of a forthcoming IMF special drawing rights (SDR) allocation. Nevertheless, Sri Lanka’s medium-term debt service challenges are substantial and pose risks to the sovereign’s debt repayment capacity, in Fitch’s view. A total of about USD 29 billion in foreign-currency debt obligations are due between now and 2026, against foreign-exchange reserves of USD4.5 billion as of end-April 2021, Fitch said.

The report further said: The authorities have recently secured project financing through various multilateral and bilateral channels, including the Asian Development Bank (AAA/Stable), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AAA/Stable), China Development Bank (A+/Stable) and The Export-Import Bank of Korea (AA-/Stable), as well as swap facilities under the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) currency framework and the People’s Bank of China, equivalent to USD400 million and USD1.5 billion, respectively. The planned IMF SDR allocation would also add USD780 million to reserves. These resources should enable Sri Lanka to meet its remaining debt maturities through the rest of this year, including a USD1 billion International Sovereign Bond maturing in July. However, the authorities have yet to specify their plans for meeting the country’s foreign-currency debt-servicing needs for 2022 and the medium term. They have consistently indicated that they do not plan to seek programme financing from the IMF.

We project foreign-exchange reserves to remain at about USD 4.5 billion by end-2021 before declining to USD3.9 billion by end-2022. Under our baseline, the current account deficit is likely to widen to 2.8% in 2021 and narrow to 2.1% of GDP in 2022. Our forecasts assume remittances will remain resilient in 2021-2022 and tourism is likely to recover only from 2022.

Sri Lanka’s economy contracted by 3.6% in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. We project growth of 3.8% in 2021, down from an earlier forecast of 4.9%, in light of a recent surge in virus cases. We expect the economy to grow by 3.9% in 2022. There remains a high degree of uncertainty associated with our forecasts in light of the evolution of new Covid-19 cases in the country. The authorities plan to inoculate 60% of the population by end-2021, but this target could be hampered by vaccine supply shortages.

Travel and tourism, an important driver of the economy, have been hit hard and the outlook for recovery remains uncertain, particularly given the recent surge in virus cases. The direct contribution of tourism to pre-pandemic GDP was about 4%, but the indirect contribution was much higher. Tourist arrivals in the first five months of 2021 were 97% lower than the same period last year.

The general government deficit widened to 11.1% of GDP in 2020, from 9.6% in 2019, as the economic contraction led to a sharp fall in fiscal revenue. We expect the deficit to remain elevated in 2021 and 2022 at 11.1% and 10.4%, respectively. Our deficit projections are wider than those presented by the government under its growth-oriented strategy of 9.4% and 7.5%, respectively. Under our forecasts, the revenue-to-GDP ratio in 2021 would rise to 10.9% in 2021 and 11.1% in 2022, compared with the authorities’ projections of 11.9% and 13.0%, respectively.

The government’s fiscal consolidation strategy is based on a planned acceleration in GDP growth, underpinned by tax cuts, as opposed to direct revenue-raising or expenditure measures, albeit supported by planned improvements in tax administration. The interest-to-revenue ratio remains high, at around 71% as of 2020, well above the ‘CCC’ median of 13%. The government expects to achieve primary surpluses from 2023, supported by annual GDP growth of 6%, which appear optimistic in our view as we anticipate growth that is closer to 4%, still above the pace in the immediate pre-pandemic period.

General government debt reached 101% of GDP by end-2020, broadly in line with our forecast at our last review in November. Our baseline forecasts suggest this ratio will rise further to 108% by 2022. Fitch does not think the government will meet its 2025 targets of reducing government debt to 70% of GDP and narrowing the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP.


Related Topics:
Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Business

Low-floor buses launched to boost accessible public transport for differently-abled

Published

18 hours ago

on

2026/04/26

By

A new low-floor bus service that gives priority to persons with disabilities and special needs was launched last Tuesday (21) from the Makumbura Multimodal Center (MMC).

The service was inaugurated under the patronage of Minister of Transport, Highways and Urban Development, Bimal Rathnayake.

Accordingly, ten specially designed low-floor buses have been introduced into the transport service today. These buses are specially designed so that wheelchair users, visually impaired passengers and also expectant women can board the bus with ease, the Transport Ministry said.

Each bus has 30 passenger seats and separate seating areas have been allocated for passengers using wheelchairs.

The pilot project operates on routes from Makumbura to Colombo Fort and from Makumbura to Kadawatha. These routes also cover major hospitals including the Colombo National Hospital and the Maharagama Apeksha Hospital.

Speaking at the event, Subject Minister Bimal Rathnayake stated that while these buses prioritize the differently-abled community, they will also provide a comfortable and reliable transport service for all passengers.

He also noted that 122 low-floor buses are planned to be introduced into service before the end of this year, and that in the future the service will be expanded to areas such as Kandy, Batticaloa, Matara and Jaffna.

Continue Reading

Business

Nestlé Lanka Announces Change in Leadership

Published

18 hours ago

on

2026/04/26

By

Nestlé Lanka Limited has announced the appointment of Manav Sahni as its Chairman and Managing Director effective 01 May 2026. He will be succeeding Bernie Stefan, who will be transitioning to a new global role within the Nestlé Group. Bernie Stefan led Nestlé’s Sri Lankan operations through a particularly challenging time since 2023 – and has successfully guided the company through a strategic turnaround, positioning it on a axis for sustainable growth.

Speaking on his tenure at Nestlé Lanka, Bernie commented “Leading Nestlé Lanka has been a deeply meaningful chapter in my Nestlé journey. I am grateful to have worked alongside an amazing and resilient team that continues to make a difference for Sri Lankans across the country. On a personal note, it was an amazing opportunity to live on this beautiful island and experience firsthand the openness, warmth and kindness of its people, which has been the highlight of my Nestlé career to date. As Nestlé Lanka marks 120 years of enriching Sri Lankan lives, it is especially humbling to reflect on the role we have played in building on this legacy – positively touching individuals and families, strengthening community partnerships, and advancing our sustainability commitments. I am thankful to my colleagues, partners and stakeholders for their collaboration and trust, and to the wider business community, including through my role as a Board Member of the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, for the opportunity to reinforce Nestlé’s commitment to responsible corporate citizenship. I leave very confident in the strength of the team and the journey that lies ahead.”

Manav Sahni brings with him over 18 years of experience in the FMCG & Telecom sector. Prior to taking on the role as Chairman and Managing Director of Nestlé Lanka Limited, he has been heading Nestlé’s Dairy business for the South Asia Region, where he expertly managed a highly diverse portfolio, driving sustainable business transformation.

“I am thrilled to take on the role of Chairman and Managing Director of Nestlé Lanka at such a pivotal moment in its journey. Nestlé has been part of Sri Lankan households for generations, and I am excited to work with the team to continue delighting consumers with tasty and nutritious products, while strengthening the positive impact we create through our brands and initiatives.”

Continue Reading

Business

Majestic Cineplex Returns Bigger Better and More Immersive

Published

18 hours ago

on

2026/04/26

By

Ceylon Theatres will unveil the newly revamped Majestic Cineplex on the 29th of April 2026, beginning a new chapter for one of Sri Lanka’s best known cinema destinations. Located at Majestic City Colombo, Majestic Cineplex returns with major technology upgrades, enhanced comfort, and a range of premium viewing options, reinforcing Ceylon Theatres’ long standing reputation for raising the bar in cinema entertainment experiences in Sri Lanka. Accordingly, the upgraded Cineplex will be completely open to the public from 29th April 2026 onwards.

For generations of moviegoers, Majestic Cineplex has been a landmark venue in Colombo, and its latest transformation brings together the nostalgia of a familiar name with the excitement of a modern cinema experience. Leading the new screen line up is Majestic Platinum, which introduces Sri Lanka’s first and only digital LED cinema screen. Designed to deliver sharper visuals, deeper contrast, richer colour, and outstanding clarity, the auditorium features a 3D 4K Tricorne LED Cinema Screen together with Dolby Atmos surround sound. Majestic Platinum offers 226 seats, including 18 VIP recliner seats for those chasing a premium cinema experience.

The cineplex also features three additional theatres, each designed to offer a high quality movie experience. Majestic Superior includes Barco 2K projection, 3D capability, and 7.1 surround sound, with seating for 150 patrons. Majestic Ultra features the same advanced projection and audio systems with 149 seats. Majestic Gold offers a more private luxury setting with Barco 2K projection, 3D capability, DTSX surround sound, and 30 leather recliner seats, ideal for those looking for the most premium and exclusive experience.

Patrons can also enjoy an upgraded café experience with freshly prepared and ready to eat food available for purchase at the counter, along with convenience of being served to your seat. The new café experience, together with the upgraded theatres make for a more relaxed, enjoyable, and fulfilling experience for everyone.

Discussing the relaunch, Ganga Rathuvithana, General Manager Operations at Ceylon Theatres said, “Majestic Cineplex has always been a special part of Colombo’s cinema culture, and we are proud to welcome audiences back with an experience that reflects the future of movie entertainment. We have always believed in investing in the best available technology, from introducing Sri Lanka’s first 3D cinema to now launching the country’s first digital LED cinema screen. Our revamped Majestic Cineplex is designed to give movie lovers something truly special.”

Continue Reading

Trending