Opinion

Some early musings on presidential election

Published

2 years ago

2024/05/9

By an apolitical aficionado

Things are beginning to hot up and even persistently simmer quite a bit ahead of the presidential election to be held in a few months. Multiple parties and candidates are vying for power, each of them holds out its promises, challenges, and visions for the future. Some of these were graphically articulated at the May Day processions, meetings and rallies of just a few days ago. All and sundry from different pollical hues, affiliations and governing principles have hastened to claim that each is God’s personal gift to Sri Lanka. It is perhaps time to have an early look at the current status of the panning situation which seems to be in a constant state of flux, look at the relative chances of the key contenders, and assess their strengths and weaknesses in the eyes of the electorate.

The United National Party (UNP), under the leadership of the current President of the country, Ranil Wickremesinghe, has been credited with steering Sri Lanka out of an economic morass. At least on that score, he has a point. On May Day, he invited all Opposition parties to co-operate him to put the economy on an even keel Some of the minions of these parties may do the high jump but it is most unlikely that the upper echelons of the parties would join Ranil. Apart from all that, criticisms have been levelled against Wickremasinghe for his autocratic leadership style and even generally perceived disregard for expert advice. While his economic policies may have brought short-term relief, concerns linger about the long-term implications of consolidating power under his leadership and the impact his radical policies would have on the nation. Most unfortunately, the draconian measures, including drastic taxes, that had to be implemented have fanned the ire of the general public. He has generally been prone to giving in to certain forces that have the potential to scuttle his ship, lest they take the law into their own hands. How the electorate would look at the prospect of handing over the country to Ranil for another five years; your guess is as good as mine.

Sajith Premadasa, leading the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), presents himself as a voice of the people, shouting even from the rooftops in a quest towards rallying the masses against corruption, inequity, and inequality. However, his confrontational rhetoric and failure to modulate his voice have drawn repeated criticisms. Despite his declarations, people may have serious doubts as to whether he will be able to work on eliminating corruption as they allege that there are quite a few bad apples in his camp too. Moreover, internal divisions within the party, notably with Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka, raise questions about Premadasa’s ability to unite the party and lead effectively. However, there is a group of capable persons in his camp as well but there are some concerns as to whether they will have freedom to act. Premadasa has gone on record to say that he will negotiate a new programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and this has led to some doubts being expressed in certain quarters about the feasibility of it and the chances of securing agreement with the IMF on many issues. If Sajith comes to power and the IMF decides to hold fast to its agenda, it would indeed be a case of the proverbial engineer hoisted by his own petard.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake lead the JVP and the NPP, promising to tackle corruption head-on. Despite lacking concrete economic policies, even if they have at least some policies that have not been unveiled so far, the JVP’s anti-corruption stance resonates with many voters. Quite surprisingly perhaps, their policies have appealed to some of the educated and the academics as well as the young, who are not knowledgeable about the JVP’s history. These groups did a disastrous experiment at the last presidential election by voting for a person, expecting him to rule with an iron fist. The JVP’s past involvement in violence and murders, as well as its failure to apologise for past atrocities, could hinder its electoral prospects. Many say that a leopard never changes its spots and as such they are quite concerned about the JVP coming to power.

These are the main players and all others who might enter the fray would just be kind of also-ran nincompoops. Yet for all that, from a different perspective, one cannot forget the role that is likely to be played by smaller parties and ethnic groups mixing up with the major players in this crucible of uncertainty. Smaller parties often represent specific ethnic or minority groups within Sri Lanka, such as the Tamil and Moor communities. These parties play a crucial role in advocating for the interests and rights of their respective constituencies. Their participation in the electoral process ensures that diverse voices are heard and considered in the political arena. In a multi-party system like Sri Lanka’s, smaller parties can hold the balance of power, especially in coalition politics. While larger parties may dominate the political discourse, smaller parties can negotiate and form alliances to secure concessions or policy commitments. As such, their endorsement or support can be instrumental in determining the outcome of elections and forming government coalitions. Smaller parties often champion specific policy agendas or social issues that may not receive adequate attention from mainstream parties. By focusing on niche areas such as environmental conservation, human rights, or regional development, these parties can shape the public discourse and influence the policy priorities of larger parties. Even if they do not possess significant electoral representation, their advocacy efforts can lead to policy changes and reforms.

Sri Lanka’s political landscape is deeply intertwined with ethnic and communal identities, particularly between the majority Sinhalese community and minority Tamil and Muslim communities. Smaller parties representing these ethnic groups can mobilise their support base around issues related to language rights, cultural autonomy, and minority rights. Their presence ensures that these issues remain central to the political agenda and that the concerns of minority communities are not overlooked. Yet for all that, the presence of smaller parties contributes to a vibrant and pluralistic democracy by offering voters a diverse range of choices beyond the dominant political players. This pluralism encourages political competition, debate, and accountability, fostering a more robust democratic culture where different voices and perspectives are valued and represented.

Overall, while smaller parties and ethnic groups may not always command significant electoral support or representation, their role in shaping the political discourse, advocating for minority rights, and fostering democratic pluralism is crucial in ensuring a more inclusive and representative political system in Sri Lanka.

In a variegated early assessment of the political scenario, the UNP, with its track record of economic stability, may appeal to some voters seeking continuity, solidity and expertise. However, concerns about authoritarianism and elitism could undermine its support base. The SJB, under Premadasa’s leadership, taps into populist sentiments but faces challenges in uniting the party and presenting a coherent vision beyond anti-corruption rhetoric. The JVP’s anti-corruption stance could attract disillusioned voters, but its lack of clear economic policies and unresolved issues from its past may limit its electoral appeal. With all these considerations casting shadows over many a group, in the upcoming Presidential Election of 2024, Sri Lankan voters may find themselves facing what appears to be a Hobson’s Choice; a seemingly limited selection between imperfect options. With each major party and candidate presenting their own set of strengths and weaknesses, voters are tasked with navigating through a rather complex political landscape. However, amidst the challenges and uncertainties, it is a forgone conclusion that voters must, simply MUST, exercise their democratic rights thoughtfully and responsibly. While the choices may not be ideal, the act of participation itself is vital in shaping the future of the nation. Ultimately, the electorate must weigh the available options, considering not only immediate concerns but also long-term implications, as they make their decision in this pivotal moment for Sri Lanka’s democracy.

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, voters face a crucial decision that will shape the country’s future. Each party and its candidate have their strengths and weaknesses, and it is ultimately up to the electorate to weigh these factors and decide who should rule the country. With economic challenges, corruption, and internal divisions looming large, the stakes are high as Sri Lanka stands at a crossroads.

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Opinion

Tribute to a distinguished BOI leader

Published

2 hours ago

2026/03/29

Thilina Walpola

Mr. Tuli Cooray, former Deputy Director General of the Board of Investment of Sri Lanka (BOI) and former Secretary General of the Joint Apparel Association Forum (JAAF), passed away three months ago, leaving a distinguished legacy of public service and dedication to national economic development.

An alumnus of the University of Colombo, Mr. Cooray graduated with a Special Degree in Economics. He began his career as a Planning Officer at the Ministry of Plan Implementation and later served as an Assistant Director in the Ministry of Finance (Planning Division).

He subsequently joined the Greater Colombo Economic Commission (GCEC), where he rose from Manager to Senior Manager and later Director. During this period, he also served at the Treasury as an Assistant Director. With the transformation of the GCEC into the BOI, he was appointed Executive Director of the Investment Department and later elevated to the position of Deputy Director General.

In recognition of his vast experience and expertise, he was appointed Director General of the Budget Implementation and Policy Coordination Division at the Ministry of Finance and Planning. Following his retirement from government service, he continued to contribute to the national economy through his work with JAAF.

Mr. Cooray was widely respected as a seasoned professional with exceptional expertise in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) and facilitating investor relations. His commitment, leadership, and humane qualities earned him the admiration and affection of colleagues across institutions.

He was also one of the pioneers of the BOI Past Officers’ Association, and his passing is deeply felt by its members. His demise has created a void that is difficult to fill, particularly within the BOI, where his contributions remain invaluable.

Mr. Cooray will be remembered not only for his professional excellence but also for his integrity, humility, and the lasting impact he made on those who had the privilege of working with him.

The BOI Past Officers’ Association

jagathcds@gmail.com

Opinion

When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers

Published

2 days ago

2026/03/27

Thilina Walpola

“As a small and open country, Singapore will always be vulnerable to what happens around us. As Lee Kuan Yew used to say: “when elephants fight, the grass suffers, but when elephants make love, the grass also suffers“. Therefore, we must be aware of what is happening around us, and prepare ourselves for changes and surprises.” – Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, during the debate on the President’s Address in Singapore Parliament on 16 May, 2018, commenting on the uncertain external environment during the first Trump Administration.

“When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers”

is a well-known African proverb commonly used in geopolitics to describe smaller nations caught in the crossfire of conflicts between major powers. At the 1981 Commonwealth conference, when Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere quoted this Swahili proverb, the Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew famously retorted, “When elephants make love, the grass suffers, too”. In other words, not only when big powers (such as the US, Russia, EU, China or India) clash, the surrounding “grass” (smaller nations) get “trampled” or suffer collateral damage but even when big powers collaborate or enter into friendly agreements, small nations can still be disadvantaged through unintended consequences of those deals. Since then, Singaporean leaders have often quoted this proverb to highlight the broader reality for smaller states, during great power rivalry and from their alliances. They did this to underline the need to prepare Singapore for challenges stemming from the uncertain external environment and to maintain high resilience against global crises.

Like Singapore, as a small and open country, Sri Lanka too is always vulnerable to what happens around us. Hence, we must be alert to what is happening around us, and be ready not only to face challenges but to explore opportunities.

When Elephants Fight

To begin with, President Trump’s “Operation Epic Fury”.

Did we prepare adequately for changes and surprises that could arise from the deteriorating situation in the Gulf region? For example, the impact the conflict has on the safety and welfare of Sri Lankans living in West Asia or on our petroleum and LNG imports. The situation in the Gulf remains fluid with potential for further escalation, with the possibility of a long-term conflict.

The region, which is the GCC, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Syria and Azerbaijan (I believe exports to Azerbaijan are through Iran), accounts for slightly over $1 billion of our exports. The region is one of the most important markets for tea (US$546 million out of US$1,408 million in 2024. According to some estimates, this could even be higher). As we export mostly low-grown teas to these countries, the impact of the conflict on low-grown tea producers, who are mainly smallholders, would be extremely strong. Then there are other sectors like fruits and vegetables where the impact would be immediate, unless of course exporters manage to divert these perishable products to other markets. If the conflict continues for a few more weeks or months, managing these challenges will be a difficult task for the nation, not simply for the government. It is also necessary to remember the Russia – Ukraine war, now on to its fifth year, and its impact on Sri Lanka’s economy.

Mother of all bad timing

What is more unfortunate is that the Gulf conflict is occurring on top of an already intensifying global trade war. One observer called it the “mother of all bad timing”. The combination is deadly.

Early last year, when President Trump announced his intention to weaponise tariffs and use them as bargaining tools for his geopolitical goals, most observers anticipated that he would mainly use tariffs to limit imports from the countries with which the United States had large trade deficits: China, Mexico, Vietnam, the European Union, Japan and Canada. The main elephants, who export to the United States. But when reciprocal tariffs were declared on 2nd April, some of the highest reciprocal tariffs were on Saint Pierre and Miquelon (50%), a French territory off Canada with a population of 6000 people, and Lesotho (50%), one of the poorest countries in Southern Africa. Sri Lanka was hit with a 44% reciprocal tariff. In dollar terms, Sri Lanka’s goods trade deficit with the United States was very small (US$ 2.9 billion in 2025) when compared to those of China (US$ 295 billion in 2024) or Vietnam (US$ 123 billion in 2024).

Though the adverse impact of US additional ad valorem duty has substantially reduced due to the recent US Supreme Court decision on reciprocal tariffs, the turbulence in the US market would continue for the foreseeable future. The United States of America is the largest market for Sri Lanka and accounts for nearly 25% of our exports. Yet, Sri Lanka’s exports to the United States had remained almost stagnant (around the US $ 3 billion range) during the last ten years, due to the dilution of the competitive advantage of some of our main export products in that market. The continued instability in our largest market, where Sri Lanka is not very competitive, doesn’t bode well for Sri Lanka’s economy.

When Elephants Make Love

In rapidly shifting geopolitical environments, countries use proactive anticipatory diplomacy to minimise the adverse implications from possible disruptions and conflicts. Recently concluded Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations between India and the EU (January 2026) and India and the UK (May 2025) are very good examples for such proactive diplomacy. These negotiations were formally launched in June 2007 and were on the back burner for many years. These were expedited as strategic responses to growing U.S. protectionism. Implementation of these agreements would commence during this year.

When negotiations for a free trade agreement between India and the European Union (which included the United Kingdom) were formally launched, anticipating far-reaching consequences of such an agreement on other developing countries, the Commonwealth Secretariat requested the University of Sussex to undertake a study on a possible implication of such an agreement on other low-income developing countries. The authors of that study had considered the impact of an EU–India Free Trade Agreement on the trade of excluded countries and had underlined, “The SAARC countries are, by a long way, the most vulnerable to negative impacts from the FTA. Their exports are more similar to India’s…. Bangladesh is most exposed in the EU market, followed by Pakistan and Sri Lanka.”

So, now these agreements are finalised; what will be the implications of these FTAs between India and the UK and the EU on Sri Lanka? According to available information, the FTA will be a game-changer for the Indian apparel exporters, as it would provide a nearly ten per cent tariff advantage to them. That would level the playing field for India, vis-à-vis their regional competitors. As a result, apparel exports from India to the UK and the EU are projected to increase significantly by 2030. As the sizes of the EU’s and the UK’s apparel markets are not going to expand proportionately, these growths need to come from the market shares of other main exporters like Sri Lanka.

So, “also, when elephants make love, the grass suffers.”

Impact on Sri Lanka

As a small, export dependent country with limited product and market diversification, Sri Lanka will always be vulnerable to what happens in our main markets. Therefore, we must be aware of what is happening in those markets, and prepare ourselves to face the challenges proactively. Today, amid intense geopolitical conflicts, tensions and tariff shifts, countries adopt high agility and strategic planning. If we look at what our neighbours have been doing in London, Brussels and Tokyo, we can learn some lessons on how to navigate through these turbulences.

(The writer is a retired public servant and can be reached at senadhiragomi@gmail.com)

by Gomi Senadhira

Opinion

QR-based fuel quota

Published

2 days ago

2026/03/27

Thilina Walpola

The introduction of the QR code–based fuel quota system can be seen as a timely and necessary measure, implemented as part of broader austerity efforts to manage limited fuel resources. In the face of ongoing global fuel instability and economic challenges, such a system is aimed at ensuring equitable distribution and preventing excessive consumption. While it is undeniable that this policy may disrupt the daily routines of certain segments of the population, it is important for citizens to recognize the larger national interest at stake and cooperate with these temporary measures until stability returns to the global fuel market.

At the same time, this initiative presents an important opportunity for the Government to address long-standing gaps in regulatory enforcement. In particular, the implementation of the QR code system could have been strategically linked to the issuance of valid revenue licenses for vehicles. Restricting QR code access only to vehicles that are properly registered and have paid their revenue dues would have helped strengthen compliance and improve state revenue collection.

Available data from the relevant authorities indicate that a significant number of vehicles—especially three-wheelers and motorcycles—continue to operate without valid revenue licences. This represents a substantial loss of income to the State and highlights a weakness in enforcement mechanisms. By integrating the fuel quota system with revenue license verification, the government could have effectively encouraged vehicle owners to regularise their documentation while simultaneously improving fiscal discipline.

In summary, while the QR code fuel system is a commendable step toward managing scarce resources, aligning it with existing regulatory requirements would have amplified its benefits. Such an approach would not only support fuel conservation but also enhance government revenue and promote greater accountability among vehicle owners.

Sariputhra
Colombo 05