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Proceed with caution: Is Sri Lanka’s Approach to Import Substitution Sensible?

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A Pathfinder Perspective

In the immediate aftermath of the onset of the Covid19 pandemic and the unprecedented health and economic crises it unleashed, there was a widespread backlash in sentiment against globalization and open economic policies. The greatly increased human mobility associated with these phenomena were blamed for the rapid spread of the virus to all parts of the globe. The supply-side shocks, related even to basic goods, such as food and medicines, as well as demand pressures emanating from a rise in protectionism, were seen as being the result of the complex supply chains that underpinned the web of cross-border production networks that constitute a major part of the global economy on the one hand and the destruction of employment and incomes in an integrated world economy on the other.

However, as time passed, there has been a shift in sentiment. The focus has shifted to seeking ways and means of maintaining the substantial gains of globalization, while reducing the risks that were exposed and amplified by the pandemic. On the health front, the extraordinary achievement of scientists in developing highly efficacious vaccines, in record time, has created the very real prospect of opening up global mobility again. This has been supplemented by the exponential acceleration of remote working and living. On the economic front, the focus has been shifted from efficiency to resilience in maintaining global supply chains. There has been diversification as well as shortening of supply chains. On the demand side, the unprecedented policy actions of Treasuries and Central Banks around the world has propped up businesses and livelihoods to an extent where a relatively strong recovery, though multi-speed, is being seen in the world economy. These trends explain why there has been a shift in sentiment, as mentioned above.

While protectionist pressures are still present, the case for an open and rules-based international trading system is being reinforced, led by China. The Biden administration has also taken measures to revive the World Trade Organization, including through the appointment of a former Finance Minister of Nigeria, and Managing Director of the World Bank, as the first female head of the institution. The dispute resolution panel of the WTO is also being reconstituted. Protectionist sentiments and a shift to autarkic (national economic self-sufficiency) policies were also ascendant in Sri Lanka. The world seems to have realized that it is not advisable to “throw the baby out with the bath water.” It is important that Sri Lanka absorbs this lesson as well.

It would be useful to trace the evolution of the thinking on import substitution and to examine briefly some of its sub-optimal practical outcomes. A paper by Douglas A Irwin, titled “The Rise and Fall of Import Substitution,” (Working Paper, Peterson Institute for International Economics; July 2020) traces the evolution of the thinking on import-substitution. Import substitution policies initially came to the fore in the early 1950s. It is probably no coincidence that they gained salience at a time when decolonization was gathering momentum. The ex-colonies sought to augment their political freedom with policies that reduced their dependence on the metropolitan centres. Many developing countries came to the conclusion that import substitution was the best trade strategy to promote industrialization and economic growth within a global economic system based on colonial structures that was geared very much against them through exploitative trading relations. Raoul Prebisch, based at the UN Economic Commission for Latin America, is widely recognized as the father of the import-substitution industrialization (ISI) strategy. However, he and other leading contemporary figures in development economics, in the 1950s, identified fairly quickly some of the weaknesses of import substitution policies in practice.

Import controls, particularly on manufactured goods, did not necessarily conserve foreign exchange as intended; rates of tariff protection were high, resulting in a misallocation of resources and higher priced and poor quality products for consumers; small and inefficient firms were created that served only domestic markets, and taken together, these policies became an obstacle to promoting exports. These shortcomings are relevant even today. Prebisch’s own views changed by the 1970s. It can be argued that the intellectual demise of import substitution had taken place by the 1970s.

The Pathfinder Foundation believes that there is considerable evidence that openness to trade increases the growth, employment and incomes trajectories of economies. It is noteworthy that the unleashing of the potential of Asian economies (particularly in East and Southeast Asia) was greatly facilitated by two of the key pillars of globalization: liberalization of trade and capital flows. This enhanced the capacity of countries to take advantage of the opportunities created by rising external demand. The successful countries of Asia were able to attract FDI, with its capital, market access and know-how, to drive export expansion and take advantage of this increasing external demand brought about by globalization.

In practice, countries as large as China or as small as Singapore have been able to transform their economies through this combination of increased FDI and rising exports. In this context, it is noteworthy that the coastal regions of China, which were significantly more integrated with the world economy, have experienced far more dynamic growth and development than the hinterland, which is significantly less integrated, and more backward. The experience in China vividly illustrates within one country the tangible benefits of policies which are open to greater integration with the global economy.

It is also important to learn lessons from historical experience closer to home. The inward-looking policies adopted by Sri Lanka in the 1970s resulted in a low-investment, low growth and high unemployment syndrome. Long queues for even essential goods were emblematic of this period. The benefits of liberalizing the economy in 1977-78 have been curtailed by the three- decade-long civil conflict and the partial nature of reforms due to a lack of political consensus around policies that attract FDI and promote exports. Weak implementation has also amplified poor overall performance. The time has come to have a concerted and holistic approach to transforming the Sri Lankan economy.

In today’s world of ever-increasing climate and other risks, there is a case for attaching high priority to food security. Well-targeted import substitution policies in agriculture can be justified on these grounds. However, the overarching focus should be on increasing productivity to avoid imposing high prices and poor quality on the consumers. The paddy sector reveals what should not be done. Sri Lanka has now reached self-sufficiency in rice production in most years. However, the outcome has been a long tale of low productivity, low income farmers whose subsistence has to be secured by inefficient and costly subsidies as well as guaranteed prices. Lessons need to be learned from past experience to avoid the same mistakes in the present and future.

In conclusion, the Pathfinder Foundation believes that it is encouraging that the most senior policy-makers have been stressing the need to develop “a production economy” driven by FDI and exports, along with a high-productivity agricultural sector. These goals should not be derailed by vested interests which focus on rent-seeking activity based on import restrictions. History, in Sri Lanka and elsewhere, teaches us that the outcomes will inevitably be bad.

The Pathfinder article is available at www.pathfinderfoundation.org for online reading. reading

 

 



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Cricket and the National Interest

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The appointment of former minister Eran Wickremaratne to chair the Sri Lanka Cricket Transformation Committee is significant for more than the future of cricket. It signals a possible shift in the culture of governance even as it offers Sri Lankan cricket a fighting possibility to get out of the doldrums of failure. There have been glorious patches for the national cricket team since the epochal 1996 World Cup triumph. But these patches of brightness have been few and far between and virtually non-existent over the past decade. At the centre of this disaster has been the failures of governance within Sri Lanka Cricket which are not unlike the larger failures of governance within the country itself. The appointment of a new reform oriented committee therefore carries significance beyond cricket. It reflects the wider challenge facing the country which is to restore trust in public institutions for better management.

The appointment of Eran Wickremaratne brings a professional administrator with a proven track record into the cricket arena. He has several strengths that many of his immediate predecessors lacked. Before the ascent of the present government leadership to positions of power, Eran Wickremaratne was among the handful of government ministers who did not have allegations of corruption attached to their names. His reputation for financial professionalism and integrity has remained intact over many years in public life. With him in the Cricket Transformation Committee are also respected former cricketers Kumar Sangakkara, Roshan Mahanama and Sidath Wettimuny together with professionals from legal and business backgrounds. They have been tasked with introducing structural reforms and improving transparency and accountability within cricket administration.

A second reason for this appointment to be significant is that this is possibly the first occasion on which the NPP government has reached out to someone associated with the opposition to obtain assistance in an area of national importance. The commitment to bipartisanship has been a constant demand from politically non-partisan civic groups and political analysts. They have voiced the opinion that the government needs to be more inclusive in its choice of appointments to decision making authorities. The NPP government’s practice so far has largely been to limit appointments to those within the ruling party or those considered loyalists even at the cost of proven expertise. The government’s decision in this case therefore marks a potentially important departure.

National Interest

There are areas of public life where national interest should transcend party divisions and cricket, beloved of the people, is one of them. Sri Lanka cannot afford to continue treating every institution as an arena for political competition when institutions themselves are in crisis and public confidence has become fragile. It is therefore unfortunate that when the government has moved positively in the direction of drawing on expertise from outside its own ranks there should be a negative response from sections of the opposition. This is indicative of the absence of a culture of bipartisanship even on issues that concern the national interest. The SJB, of which the newly appointed cricket committee chairman was a member objected on the grounds that politicians should not hold positions in sports administration and asked him to resign from the party. There is a need to recognise the distinction between partisan political control and the temporary use of experienced administrators to carry out reform and institutional restructuring. In other countries those in politics often join academia and civil society on a temporary basis and vice versa.

More disturbing has been the insidious campaign carried out against the new cricket committee and its chairman on the grounds of religious affiliation. This is an unacceptable denial of the reality that Sri Lanka is a plural, multi ethnic and multi religious society. The interim committee reflects this diversity to a reasonable extent. The country’s long history of ethnic conflict should have taught all political actors the dangers of mobilising communal prejudice for short term political gain. Sri Lanka paid a very heavy price for decades of mistrust and division. It would be tragic if even cricket administration became another arena for communal suspicion and hostility. The present government represents an important departure from the sectarian rhetoric that was employed by previous governments. They have repeatedly pledged to protect the equal rights of all citizens and not permit discrimination or extremism in any form.

The recent international peace march in Sri Lanka led by the Venerable Bhikkhu Thich Paññākāra from Vietnam with its message of loving kindness and mindfulness to all resonated strongly with the masses of people as seen by the crowds who thronged the roadsides to obtain blessings and show respect. This message stands in contrast to the sectarian resentment manifested by those who seek to use the cricket appointments as a weapon to attack the government at the present time. The challenges before the Sri Lanka Cricket Transformation Committee parallel the larger challenges before the government in developing the national economy and respecting ethnic and religious diversity. Plugging the leaks and restoring systems will take time and effort. It cannot be done overnight and it cannot succeed without public patience and support.

New Recognition

There is also a need for realism. The appointment of Eran Wickremaratne and the new committee does not guarantee success. Reforming deeply flawed institutions is always difficult. Besides, Sri Lanka is a small country with a relatively small population compared to many other cricket playing nations. It is also a country still recovering from the economic breakdown of 2022 which pushed the majority of people into hardship and severely weakened public institutions. The country continues to face unprecedented challenges including the damage caused by Cyclone Ditwah and the wider global economic uncertainties linked to conflict in the Middle East. Under these difficult circumstances Sri Lanka has fewer resources than many larger countries to devote to both cricket and economic development.

When resources are scarce they cannot be wasted through corruption or incompetence. Drawing upon the strengths of all those who are competent for the tasks at hand regardless of party affiliation or ethnic or religious identity is necessary if improvement is to come sooner rather than later. The burden of rebuilding the country cannot rest only on the government. The crisis facing the country is too deep for any single party or government to solve alone. National recovery requires capable individuals from across society and from different sectors such as business and civil society to work together in areas where the national interest transcends party politics. There is also a responsibility on opposition political parties to support initiatives that are politically neutral and genuinely in the national interest. Not every issue needs to become a partisan battle.

Sri Lanka cricket occupies a special place in the national consciousness. At its best it once united the country and gave Sri Lankans a sense of pride and international recognition. Restoring integrity and professionalism to cricket administration can therefore become part of the larger task of national renewal. The appointment of Eran Wickremaratne and the new committee, while it does not guarantee success, is a sign that the political leadership and people of the country may be beginning to mature in their approach to governance. In recognising the need for competence, integrity and bipartisan cooperation and extending it beyond cricket into other areas of national life, Sri Lanka may find the way towards more stable and successful governance..

by Jehan Perera

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From Dhaka to Sri Lanka, three wheels that drive our economies

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Court vacation this year came with an unexpected lesson, not from a courtroom but from the streets of Dhaka — a city that moves, quite literally, on three wheels.

Above the traffic, a modern metro line glides past concrete pillars and crowded rooftops. It is efficient, clean and frequently cited as a symbol of progress in Bangladesh. For a visitor from Sri Lanka, it inevitably brings to mind our own abandoned light rail plans — a project debated, politicised and ultimately set aside.

But Dhaka’s real story is not in the air. It is on the ground.

Beneath the elevated tracks, the streets belong to three-wheelers. Known locally as CNGs, they cluster at junctions, line the edges of markets and pour into narrow roads that larger vehicles avoid. Even with a functioning rail system, these three-wheelers remain the city’s most dependable form of everyday transport.

Within hours of arriving, their importance becomes obvious. The train may take you across the city, but the journey does not end there. The last mile — often the most complicated part — belongs entirely to the three-wheeler. It is the vehicle that gets you home, to a meeting or simply through streets that no bus route properly serves.

There is a rhythm to using them. A destination is mentioned, a price is suggested and a brief negotiation follows. Then the ride begins, edging into traffic that feels permanently compressed. Drivers move with instinct, adjusting routes and squeezing through gaps with a confidence built over years.

It is not polished. But it works.

And that is where the comparison with Sri Lanka becomes less about what we lack and more about what we already have.

Back home, the three-wheeler has long been part of daily life — so familiar that it is often discussed only in terms of its problems. There are frequent complaints about fares, refusals or the absence of meters. More recently, the industry itself has become entangled in politics — from fuel subsidies to regulatory debates, from election-time promises to periodic crackdowns.

In that process, the conversation has shifted. The three-wheeler is often treated as a problem to be managed, rather than a service to be strengthened.

Yet, seen through the experience of Dhaka, Sri Lanka’s system begins to look far more settled — and, in many ways, ahead.

There is a growing structure in place. Meters, while not perfect, are widely recognised. Ride-hailing apps have added transparency and reduced uncertainty for passengers. There are clearer expectations on both sides — driver and commuter alike. Even small details, such as designated parking areas in parts of Colombo or the increasing standard of vehicles, point to an industry slowly moving towards professionalism.

Just as importantly, there is a human element that remains intact.

In Sri Lanka, a three-wheeler ride is rarely just a transaction. Drivers talk. They offer directions, comment on the day’s news, or share local knowledge. The ride becomes part of the social fabric, not just a means of getting from one point to another.

In Dhaka, the scale of the city leaves less room for that. The interaction is quicker, more direct, shaped by urgency. The service is essential, but it is under constant pressure.

What stands out, across both countries, is that the three-wheeler is not a temporary or outdated mode of transport. It is a necessity in dense, fast-growing Asian cities — one that fills gaps no rail or bus system can fully address.

Large infrastructure projects, like light rail, are important. They bring efficiency and long-term capacity. But they cannot replace the flexibility of a three-wheeler. They cannot reach into narrow streets, respond instantly to demand or provide that crucial last-mile connection.

That is why, even in a city that has invested heavily in modern rail, Dhaka still runs on three wheels.

For Sri Lanka, the lesson is not simply about what could have been built, but about what should be better managed and valued.

The three-wheeler industry does not need to be politicised at every turn. It needs steady regulation — clear fare systems, proper licensing, safety standards — alongside encouragement and recognition. It needs to be seen as part of the solution to urban transport, not as a side issue.

Because for thousands of drivers, it is a livelihood. And for millions of passengers, it is the most immediate and reliable form of mobility.

The tuk-tuk may not feature in grand policy speeches or infrastructure blueprints. It does not run on elevated tracks or attract international attention. But on the ground, where daily life unfolds, it continues to do what larger systems often struggle to do — show up, adapt and keep moving.

And after watching Dhaka’s streets — crowded, relentless, yet functioning — that small, three-wheeled vehicle feels less like something to argue over and more like something to get right.

(The writer is an Attorney-at-Law with over a decade of experience specialising in civil law, a former Board Member of the Office of Missing Persons and a former Legal Director of the Central Cultural Fund. He holds an LLM in International Business Law)

 

by Sampath Perera recently in Dhaka, Bangladesh 

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Dubai scene … opening up

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Seven Notes: Operating in Dubai

According to reports coming my way, the entertainment scene, in Dubai, is very much opening up, and buzzing again!

After a quieter few months, May is packed with entertainment and the whole scene, they say, is shifting back into full swing.

The Seven Notes band, made up of Sri Lankans, based in Dubai, are back in the spotlight, after a short hiatus, due to the ongoing Middle East problems.

On 18th April they did Legends Night at Mercure Hotel Dubai Barsha Heights; on Thursday, 9th May, they will be at the Sports Bar of the Mercure Hotel for 70s/80s Retro Night; on 6th June, they will be at Al Jadaf Dubai to provide the music for Sandun Perera live in concert … and with more dates to follow.

These events are expected to showcase the band’s evolving sound, tighter stage coordination, and stronger audience engagement.

With each performance, the band aims to refine its identity and build a loyal following within Dubai’s vibrant nightlife and event scene.

Pasindu Umayanga: The group’s new vocalist

What makes Seven Notes standout is their versatility which has made the band a dynamic and promising act.

With a growing performance calendar, new talent integration, and international ambitions, the band is definitely entering a defining phase of its journey.

Dubai’s music industry, I’m told, thrives on diversity, energy, and audience connection, with live bands playing a crucial role in elevating events—from corporate shows to private concerts. Against this backdrop, Seven Notes is positioning itself not just as another band, but as a performance-driven musical unit focused on consistency and growth.

Adding fresh momentum to the group is Pasindu Umayanga who joins Seven Notes as their new vocalist. This move signals a strategic upgrade—not just filling a role, but strengthening the band’s front-line presence.

Looking beyond local stages, Seven Notes is preparing for an international tour, to Korea, in July.

Bassist Niluk Uswaththa: Spokesperson for Seven Notes

According to bassist Niluk Uswaththa, taking a band abroad means: Your sound must hold up against unfamiliar audiences, your performance must translate beyond language, and your discipline must be at a professional level.

“If executed well, this tour could redefine Seven Notes from a local band into an emerging international act,” added Niluk.

He went on to say that Dubai is not an easy market. It’s saturated with highly experienced, multi-genre bands that can adapt instantly to any crowd.

“To stand out consistently you need to have tight rehearsal discipline, unique sound identity (not just covers), strong stage chemistry, audience retention – not just applause.”

No doubt, Seven Notes is entering a critical growth phase—new member, multiple shows, and an international tour on the horizon. The opportunity is real, but so is the pressure.

However, there is talk that Seven Notes will soon be a recognised name in the regional music scene.

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