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Navigating global trade and supply chain challenges

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An extreme weather event; a flooded Sri Lankan paddy field.

This article aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of a major challenge to the smooth flow of the supply chain, “The stockouts”, their causes and most importantly, effective strategies to prevent them.

I strongly feel this topic is quite appropriate at a time where most of the companies struggle to eliminate bottlenecks in their supply chains.

In today’s fast-paced business environment, maintaining optimal inventory levels is crucial for success. As businesses strive to meet ever-changing consumer demands, the challenge of preventing stockouts becomes increasingly complex and a robust supply chain planning process with long, medium and short term strategies are key to the success of the supply chain.

Stockouts occur when a business runs out of inventory for a particular product, leaving them unable to fulfill customer requirements.

Let us understand common causes of stockouts. Inaccurate demand forecasting is a major cause as our markets depend on a demand-driven forecast. Poor inventory management is seen in many organizations with inefficient tracking systems or human errors in inventory counts, misleading stock levels, lead time. and sales/ stock miscalculations. Such supply chain disruptions interrupt the flow of goods.

In an increasingly unpredictable world, supply chain (S.C.) disruptions are no longer an exception but the rule. Factors such as natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, extreme weather events, pandemics, labour and raw material shortages, infrastructure challenges, logistical issues, seasonal fluctuations and long lead times due to unexpected conditions and holidays in supplier country have made supply chain professionals a more complex situation. Hence, the supply chain professionals at the customer end should be very knowledgeable in respect of the above conditions when forecasting and final planning as per correct demand.

Stockouts can have far-reaching consequences that extend beyond the immediate loss of sale and revenue. Other such consequences are decreased customer satisfaction, potentially damaging long-term loyalty, reduced brand reputation as frequent stockouts erode trust in your brand and increased operational costs rushing to restock items as a preventive measure.

(Agile supply chains at a higher cost of material and shipping) and market-share loss.

By recognizing these consequences, businesses should focus on implementing robust stockout prevention strategies and investing in effective inventory management solutions.

Let us now discuss as to how we should avoid stockouts and what the key strategies are?

Maintaining accurate inventory records is fundamental to preventing stockouts. Effective inventory management strategies and tools should provide real-time visibility into stock levels. For this, advanced inventory management software systems must be utilized for automated reordering and calculating re-order points.

However, inventory professionals should obtain information (data) with specific, timely, and a very accurate manner. This is why the organizations fail today in computing the correct re-order levels/points.

What to order, when to order, and how much to order depend on the accuracy of such data. If it fails, the entire supply chain will face lots of disruptions.

Further, regular cycle counts, ABC analysis based on consumption values and, VED/SDE/HML stock analysis are vital tools to avoid stockouts and excess stocks.

VED- Vital, Essential, Desired

SDE- Scarce, Difficult to obtain, Easy to obtain as per lead times.

HML -High, Medium, Lowpriced items

I would recommend staff training, utilizing barcode systems, and streamline receiving and issuing processes too to uplift the inventory management system.

Therefore, I wish to reiterate, that accurate Inventory data forms the foundation for effective demand forecasting & inventory optimization strategies.

Determining appropriate stock levels is one of the most challenging tasks faced by inventory managers. To mitigate the risk of stock outs due to uncertainties in supply or demand, Safety stock (or buffer stock) is maintained by stock controllers, which intends to cover any shortfall in cycle stock (moving stock) during the lead time period. It is an important element of the re-order point formula.

Reorder Point (ROP) = (Average consumption × Lead time) + Safety Stock

However, the stock should be balanced between overstock and stock-out situations. There are many methods of calculating the safety stock, such as fixed safety stock, time-based safety stock, and average/max calculations.

(Max. sales × Max. lead time) – (Average sales × Average lead time) = Projected Safety Stock

There are statistical calculations as well.

The performance of the supply chain should be monitored and reviewed. Supply chain manager should “keep an eye’ on the progress on an ongoing basis and gather formal and informal control information. KPI, balance score card, bench-marking( best in class strategy) ,TQM (continuous improvement) are some of the tools to assess the performance of the organization.

Digital transformation revolutionizing inventory management practices within supply chain is offering unprecedented opportunities and challenges for business worldwide. The digital technologies significantly enhance inventory visibility, improved accuracy, advanced demand forecasting and streamlined supply chain collaboration. Despite these benefits, challenges such as system integration complexities, high implementation costs data quality management, cyber security risks and regulatory compliance issues are prevalent.

In today’s world of pandemics, geopolitical shocks and extreme weather events,

efficiency alone is a fragile strategy, The goal is no longer, just resilience, it is ANTIFRAGILITY which means getting stronger from shocks rather than just surviving them.

(The writer is an experienced lecturer and consultant on Supply Chain Management)

E mail- suveentrading@yahoo.com

By Denver Brian Coorey



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LankaPay Technnovation Awards to spotlight inclusive FinTech as digital payments expand across Sri Lanka

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(L-R) - Dinuka Perera – DCEO LankaPay; Channa de Silva – CEO LankaPay; Rajeeva Bandaranaike – Chairman of the Panel of Judges; Vasantha Alwis, Director – Payments and Settlements of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka; and Indrajith Boyagoda – Secretary General, Sril Lanka Bankers’ Association.

Sri Lanka’s digital payments revolution is gathering unprecedented momentum, with more than 260 government institutions now integrated into the national digital payments ecosystem, marking a decisive shift toward financial transparency, efficiency and inclusion, officials said at a press briefing held at the Hilton Colombo Residences.

The announcement coincided with the launch of the eighth edition of the LankaPay Technnovation Awards 2026 by LankaPay, Sri Lanka’s national payment network, under the theme “Inclusive FinTech,” recognising financial institutions, fintech companies and government entities that have expanded access to secure and convenient digital financial services across the country.

Chief Executive Officer of LankaPay, Channa de Silva, said the rapid expansion of digital payment adoption reflects a structural transformation in Sri Lanka’s financial architecture.

“The growth we are witnessing in digital payments is not merely technological progress—it represents a fundamental shift in how financial services are delivered and accessed. Our national payment infrastructure is enabling real-time, secure and inclusive transactions that empower individuals, businesses and government institutions,” de Silva said.

He said LankaPay’s continued investment in interoperable and accessible payment infrastructure is helping bring more citizens into the formal financial system while strengthening economic governance.

“Our objective is to ensure digital payments are accessible to all Sri Lankans, from urban centres to the most remote communities. Inclusive digital finance strengthens economic participation and supports sustainable national development,” he said.

Officials said the onboarding of 260 government institutions within a year represents a remarkable leap from just eight institutions previously connected, underscoring the State’s accelerating digital transformation agenda.

“This expansion required extensive engagement across the country. Our teams worked directly with government departments, municipal councils and regional authorities to ensure successful integration into the digital payments ecosystem,”

LankaPay officials said, noting that institutions from regions including Kurunegala, Jaffna and Trincomalee had recently been onboarded.

Authorities said the digital integration of government services improves transparency, reduces administrative inefficiencies and enhances public convenience, while enabling better financial oversight and accountability.

The LankaPay Technnovation Awards, first introduced in 2017, have become Sri Lanka’s benchmark platform recognising excellence and innovation in payment technology, honouring institutions that have demonstrated leadership in advancing digital payments and financial inclusion.

The grand awards ceremony is scheduled to be held on March 24 at the Cinnamon Life under the patronage of Nandalal Weerasinghe, Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, as Chief Guest. Eranga Weerarathne, Deputy Minister of Digital Economy, and Hans Wijayasuriya, Chief Advisor to the President on Digital Economy, will attend as Guests of Honour.

Officials said the awards recognise outstanding achievements across multiple categories, including financial inclusivity, customer convenience, digital government payments and cross-border payment enablement, reflecting the breadth of innovation taking place within Sri Lanka’s financial services sector.

By Ifham Nizam

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HNB supports Sri Lanka’s recovery with record advances growth

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HNB Group delivered strong performance in 2025, with Group Profit After Tax (PAT) reaching Rs 49.8 Bn, reflecting the continued progress. The Bank’s PAT stood at Rs 45.4 Bn, supported by robust balance sheet expansion and sustained improvements in asset quality.

Commenting on the performance, Nihal Jayawardena, Chairman of HNB PLC, stated,”The year 2025 marked a decisive shift in Sri Lanka’s economic trajectory, supported by improving macroeconomic fundamentals, renewed private sector confidence, and continued progress in national reform efforts. HNB’s strong balance sheet expansion, disciplined risk management, and sustained investment in digital and operational capabilities position the Bank to play an essential role in supporting the country’s revival”.

“While the year concluded with the severe impact of Cyclone Ditwah, the resilience demonstrated by communities and institutions underscored the importance of a banking sector that remains agile, responsive, and deeply committed to national progress. We will continue to work closely with stakeholders to mobilise capital, rebuild affected livelihoods, and strengthen long‑term economic stability.”

Despite strong credit growth, net interest margins remained under pressure amid an accommodative monetary policy stance. Net Interest Income declined marginally by 0.6% year‑on‑year, reflecting the broad reduction in market interest rates, and the recognition of a portion of overdue interest from the restructuring of Sri Lanka Sovereign Bonds (SLSBs) in December 2024, which temporarily boosted interest income in the previous year. However, the decrease in net interest income was moderated by the increase in interest income from loans and advances, supported by the expansion in the loan book, and the growth in CASA deposits.

Non-fund-based income provided a strong counterbalance, with Net Fee and Commission Income increasing by 28.9% year-on-year on the back of higher card usage and a sharp increase in digital transactions. The significant increase in the demand for trade related services on the back of the reopening of vehicle imports and improving trade activity, saw trade finance emerge as one of the key contributors to non-fund income in the current year. Furthermore, Exchange income rose to Rs 6.3 Bn during the year, reversing the loss of Rs 2.9 Bn recorded in 2024.

Prudent risk management, disciplined underwriting and focused recovery efforts supported a significant improvement in asset quality during the year. The Stage 3 portfolio recorded a net reduction alongside an impairment reversal of Rs 9.2 Bn, following the recognition of Rs 2.2 Bn in post‑model adjustments made prudently for loan exposures with potential vulnerability arising from Cyclone Ditwah.

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HNB Assurance delivers industry leading 42% revenue (GWP) growth and 28% rise in profits (PAT)

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HNB Assurance PLC reported an outstanding financial performance for the year ended 31st December 2025, delivering a 42% year-on-year growth in Life Insurance Gross Written Premium (GWP), this along with the growth rate in Renewals are the highest in the industry.

Life GWP reached Rs. 19.49 Bn compared to Rs. 13.71 Bn in 2024, reflecting strong New Business generation and Renewal Collection. Net Written Premium grew even faster at 43% to Rs. 18.44 Bn, highlighting the quality and sustainability of the Company’s topline expansion.

Commenting on the results, Chairman Stuart Chapman stated, “The year under review was marked by gradual macroeconomic stabilisation, improved investor sentiment and a more predictable policy environment. Although the economy continues to recover from prior volatility, we are beginning to see renewed financial confidence among individuals and businesses. Against this backdrop, HNB Assurance has delivered strong growth in both revenue and profits, while maintaining robust capital adequacy and prudent risk management. Our improvement in top line, profitability and balance sheet strength demonstrates the resilience of our business model and our ability to navigate changing economic conditions which are reflected in an ROE which increased to 18.5% from 16.9% a year earlier.”

Profit Before Tax increased by 28% to Rs. 3.03 Bn from Rs. 2.36 Bn in the previous year, while Profit After Tax (including Life Surplus Transfer) rose by 28% to Rs. 2.12 Bn compared to Rs. 1.66 Bn in 2024. Earnings Per Share improved by 28% to Rs. 14.15 from Rs. 11.04, reinforcing the Company’s ability to consistently translate business growth into enhanced shareholder value. In line with this strong performance, the Board of Directors has proposed a first and final dividend of Rs. 5.00 per share for 2025, representing a 28% increase over the Rs. 3.90 per share declared in the previous year.

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