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Navigating global trade and supply chain challenges

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An extreme weather event; a flooded Sri Lankan paddy field.

This article aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of a major challenge to the smooth flow of the supply chain, “The stockouts”, their causes and most importantly, effective strategies to prevent them.

I strongly feel this topic is quite appropriate at a time where most of the companies struggle to eliminate bottlenecks in their supply chains.

In today’s fast-paced business environment, maintaining optimal inventory levels is crucial for success. As businesses strive to meet ever-changing consumer demands, the challenge of preventing stockouts becomes increasingly complex and a robust supply chain planning process with long, medium and short term strategies are key to the success of the supply chain.

Stockouts occur when a business runs out of inventory for a particular product, leaving them unable to fulfill customer requirements.

Let us understand common causes of stockouts. Inaccurate demand forecasting is a major cause as our markets depend on a demand-driven forecast. Poor inventory management is seen in many organizations with inefficient tracking systems or human errors in inventory counts, misleading stock levels, lead time. and sales/ stock miscalculations. Such supply chain disruptions interrupt the flow of goods.

In an increasingly unpredictable world, supply chain (S.C.) disruptions are no longer an exception but the rule. Factors such as natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, extreme weather events, pandemics, labour and raw material shortages, infrastructure challenges, logistical issues, seasonal fluctuations and long lead times due to unexpected conditions and holidays in supplier country have made supply chain professionals a more complex situation. Hence, the supply chain professionals at the customer end should be very knowledgeable in respect of the above conditions when forecasting and final planning as per correct demand.

Stockouts can have far-reaching consequences that extend beyond the immediate loss of sale and revenue. Other such consequences are decreased customer satisfaction, potentially damaging long-term loyalty, reduced brand reputation as frequent stockouts erode trust in your brand and increased operational costs rushing to restock items as a preventive measure.

(Agile supply chains at a higher cost of material and shipping) and market-share loss.

By recognizing these consequences, businesses should focus on implementing robust stockout prevention strategies and investing in effective inventory management solutions.

Let us now discuss as to how we should avoid stockouts and what the key strategies are?

Maintaining accurate inventory records is fundamental to preventing stockouts. Effective inventory management strategies and tools should provide real-time visibility into stock levels. For this, advanced inventory management software systems must be utilized for automated reordering and calculating re-order points.

However, inventory professionals should obtain information (data) with specific, timely, and a very accurate manner. This is why the organizations fail today in computing the correct re-order levels/points.

What to order, when to order, and how much to order depend on the accuracy of such data. If it fails, the entire supply chain will face lots of disruptions.

Further, regular cycle counts, ABC analysis based on consumption values and, VED/SDE/HML stock analysis are vital tools to avoid stockouts and excess stocks.

VED- Vital, Essential, Desired

SDE- Scarce, Difficult to obtain, Easy to obtain as per lead times.

HML -High, Medium, Lowpriced items

I would recommend staff training, utilizing barcode systems, and streamline receiving and issuing processes too to uplift the inventory management system.

Therefore, I wish to reiterate, that accurate Inventory data forms the foundation for effective demand forecasting & inventory optimization strategies.

Determining appropriate stock levels is one of the most challenging tasks faced by inventory managers. To mitigate the risk of stock outs due to uncertainties in supply or demand, Safety stock (or buffer stock) is maintained by stock controllers, which intends to cover any shortfall in cycle stock (moving stock) during the lead time period. It is an important element of the re-order point formula.

Reorder Point (ROP) = (Average consumption × Lead time) + Safety Stock

However, the stock should be balanced between overstock and stock-out situations. There are many methods of calculating the safety stock, such as fixed safety stock, time-based safety stock, and average/max calculations.

(Max. sales × Max. lead time) – (Average sales × Average lead time) = Projected Safety Stock

There are statistical calculations as well.

The performance of the supply chain should be monitored and reviewed. Supply chain manager should “keep an eye’ on the progress on an ongoing basis and gather formal and informal control information. KPI, balance score card, bench-marking( best in class strategy) ,TQM (continuous improvement) are some of the tools to assess the performance of the organization.

Digital transformation revolutionizing inventory management practices within supply chain is offering unprecedented opportunities and challenges for business worldwide. The digital technologies significantly enhance inventory visibility, improved accuracy, advanced demand forecasting and streamlined supply chain collaboration. Despite these benefits, challenges such as system integration complexities, high implementation costs data quality management, cyber security risks and regulatory compliance issues are prevalent.

In today’s world of pandemics, geopolitical shocks and extreme weather events,

efficiency alone is a fragile strategy, The goal is no longer, just resilience, it is ANTIFRAGILITY which means getting stronger from shocks rather than just surviving them.

(The writer is an experienced lecturer and consultant on Supply Chain Management)

E mail- suveentrading@yahoo.com

By Denver Brian Coorey



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HNB Life reports 54% surge in gross written premium for Q1 2026

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HNB Life PLC has delivered a robust performance in the first quarter of 2026, recording a 54% year-on-year increase in Gross Written Premium (GWP) to Rs. 7.01 billion, up from Rs. 4.55 billion in Q1 2025. Net Written Premium rose by a matching 54% to Rs. 6.69 billion, reflecting strong new business generation and policy persistency.

Total net income grew 39% to Rs. 8.69 billion, supported by solid underwriting and steady investment income, including Rs. 2.05 billion from interest and dividends. The company’s balance sheet remains resilient, with total assets reaching Rs. 71.38 billion and the Life Insurance Fund expanding to Rs. 52.55 billion.

Profit after tax stood at Rs. 0.21 billion, though profitability was tempered by a low-interest rate environment and fair value fluctuations in the equity portfolio. No surplus transfer from the Life Insurance Fund has been made yet, as this typically follows year-end valuation.

Chairman Stuart Chapman attributed the momentum to the company’s recent rebranding and its strategic alignment with the Hatton National Bank Group. CEO Lasitha Wimalaratne emphasized disciplined execution, digital enablement, and enhanced distribution as key drivers.

HNB Life, rated ‘A’ (lka) by Fitch, marks 25 years as one of Sri Lanka’s fastest-growing life insurers, operating 79 branches nationwide. The company remains well-positioned for sustainable long-term growth.

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ADB Samarkand spirit demands immediate radical shift in Sri Lanka national mindset

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The 59th Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the Asian Development Bank in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on May 3 (Photo credit: Samarkand time).

The atmosphere in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, during the 59th Annual Meeting of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) was nothing short of electric. Walking through the Silk Road Samarkand complex – a venue steeped in the history of ancient global trade – one could easily feel the weight of past legacies. “More pressing, however, was the palpable urgency of the future, as the halls of the Congress Center resonated with strategic discussions on ‘Asia’s Second Growth Leap.'” The global narrative was unmistakable: the talk of post-crisis recovery was no longer relevant. For Sri Lanka, the echoing message from Samarkand was both a warning and an invitation: the transition from an aid-recipient mindset to a competitive global partner is no longer a choice. It is our only survival mechanism.

While delegates from across the region shared aggressive blueprints for economic acceleration, the absence of Sri Lankan policymakers was a stark reality. Other Asian nations did not speak of mere “potential”; they spoke of velocity.

In Samarkand, the ancient gateway of the Silk Road, the irony was impossible to ignore. As regional leaders debated the deployment of an Interconnected Pan-Asia Grid to revolutionise energy integration, discussed how deep capital markets must drive development, and outlined strategies to scale up investments from critical minerals to advanced manufacturing value chains, a troubling realisation set in. The world is moving at lightning speed on digital highways for inclusive growth, yet Sri Lanka remains haunted by the ghost of political and bureaucratic “dilly-dallying.”

The true “Samarkand Spirit” demands an immediate, radical shift in our national mindset. Sri Lanka must aggressively shed its “crisis” label. The high-level discourse in Uzbekistan focused entirely on how emerging economies can stop begging for economic concessions and start delivering regional solutions.

Whether the focus was on maximising opportunities within the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) or financing large-scale offshore wind projects, the core directive for our nation remained constant: Sri Lanka must stop looking for a hand-out and start building an economic bridge.

The ADB has laid out the catalytic pathway for the Asia-Pacific’s second growth phase. The infrastructure, the capital, and the frameworks are ready. The burning question for Sri Lanka’s policymakers is simple: Are we ready to execute, or are we content with stagnation?

Leaving Uzbekistan, the takeaway for our leadership is vivid and uncompromising. Decisive action is the sole currency of the new Asian century.

To bridge the gap between the historic Silk Road and the strategic Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka must:

Accelerate Digitisation: Swiftly overhaul bureaucratic frameworks to create a seamless, trusted digital economy.

Integrate Energy Grid Connectivity: Boldly plug into the regional grid networks discussed at the summit to resolve long-term energy insecurity.

Plug into Global Supply Chains: Pivot aggressively toward high-value manufacturing and regional trade agreements.

The 59th ADB Annual Meeting proved that the international community is ready to partner with a competitive, forward-thinking Sri Lanka. We possess the geographic location and the inherent talent. Now, post-Samarkand, we have the definitive roadmap.

The “Second Leap” of the Asia-Pacific region is already in motion. The ultimate test for Sri Lanka’s policymakers is whether they will lead the country into this dynamic new era or leave us observing fruitlessly from the sidelines.

By Sanath Nanayakkare

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First drop in new business in three years: The hidden warning in Sri Lanka’s April PMI

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Here is the point that carries more weight than the headline PMI figures released by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. While much of April’s contraction in manufacturing (42.6) and services (46.7) was dismissed as seasonal — the Sinhala and Tamil New Year holidays, fewer working days, fading festive demand — the rupture in new business flows tells a different, more troubling tale.

April 2026 marked the first month since April 2023 that services sector new business contracted. Not a slowdown. Not a plateau. An outright decline. Nor was it narrow in scope. The deterioration cut across transportation of goods, insurance, wholesale and retail trade, and accommodation, food and beverage service activities.

The Island Financial Review asked an independent analyst for his take. Here is what he said.

“These are not fringe sub-sectors; they are the arteries of Sri Lanka’s domestic economy. Why does this matter beyond the seasonal logic? Because new business is a leading indicator. What falls today in new orders will show up tomorrow in production, employment and stock purchases. April’s drop in new business — the first in three full years — suggests that May’s anticipated recovery may be shallower than hoped, and that a return above the neutral 50 PMI threshold before June is unlikely unless geopolitical tensions ease sharply.”

“Compounding the concern, the decline in new business was not an isolated Sri Lankan phenomenon. It arrived alongside two external shocks: rising energy prices, which hammered transport and personal services, and the ongoing Middle East conflict, which lengthened supplier delivery times and added logistical friction.”

“To be sure, expectations over the next three months remain positive. Firms hope for a stabilisation following the end of the war. But the first decline in new business in three years is a quiet alarm. Seasonal patterns explain April’s production dip. They do not explain why customers stopped placing new orders. For Sri Lanka’s policymakers and business leaders, that is the story to watch in May,” he said.

By Sanath Nanayakkare

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