Features
My Decision to Leave Home, 1970 A fateful decision
By Nimal Wikremanayeke
(Excerpted from A Life In The Law)
I will now turn to the events that made me leave my wonderful country, my beautiful home and my large practice at the Ceylon Bar in order to emigrate to Australia, a land where I knew no one. Today, looking back, I cannot understand what fit of insanity must have overtaken me to make such a stunning, life-changing decision.
It was May 27, 1970, the day when our prime minister, Dudley Senanayake, decided to fight an election against the combined might of Mrs Sirimavo Bandaranaike’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party, Dr Colvin R De Silva’s Trotskyite Lanka Sama Samaja Party, Mr Pieter Keuneman’s Communist Party and several other miscellaneous parties. We were all extremely confident that Mr Senanayake would triumph and we would have stability in our country for another five years.
My father decided to hold a card party on election night so that we could have an enjoyable night while listening to the election results. Dad was an extremely generous host and he was to provide dinner – a gourmet’s dinner – yellow rice with numerous curries washed down with large quantities of French wines.I woke early that morning, shaved, showered, had my breakfast and went off to vote. The polling booths were filled with supporters of the various parties loudly touting their wares. I took my place in the queue and when it came for my turn to vote, the electoral officer brushed the first joint of my right thumb with indelible ink to prevent me from voting again, took my particulars and gave me my ballot papers. I returned home after voting, confident that our party would be returned to power.
Shortly after 12 noon I left with my wife to go to my club the Twentieth Century Club in Dawson Road, Havelock Town, Colombo. This was a ritual we followed every Saturday morning. When we arrived there, a group of my friends had already commenced their usual Saturday afternoon drinking session. They were seated in a semi-circle outside on the club house lawn and my wife and I joined them.
Life in those days was gracious and we were attended to by solicitous, subservient attendants. After many rounds of fairly heavy drinking, we left for home. We arrived at our well-appointed air-conditioned three-bedroom apartment, with a sitting cum dining room which had French windows opening out onto a covered veranda, and an impressive courtyard. We had two servants, a female cook and a houseboy.
Shortly after three o’clock the cook warmed up our lunch which the houseboy laid out on the dining table. We had our lunch and retired to bed where we were joined by our German shepherd, Sweetheart.We got up later that afternoon, made ourselves ready and went to my parents’ home. My father was one of the leading Queen’s Counsel at the Ceylon Bar. He had a large and spacious home which was built on a quarter of an acre of land over 11,000 square feet together with a quarter-acre of garden.
In addition to his study, the house had five well-appointed bedrooms, with en suite bathrooms in four of them. The home had a large entrance hall, a sitting room, an open-air patio in the middle of the home, a fountain filled with goldfish, an exceptionally large dining room, and attached to it was the billiard room, with a full-sized billiard table and sufficient room to accommodate a large card table.By 7 pm all my father’s guests had arrived and we indulged ourselves in a rousing game of Down the River. This was seven-card stud poker, together with as many jokers as there were players -eleven of us. At about 8.30 pm we sat down to dinner, which we finished by 10 pm. We returned to the card room and sat down to resume playing cards when someone turned on the radio to listen to the election results.
It was customary in Ceylon for the election results to start flooding in at about 10 pm. We did not hear any election results for several hours; all we heard from the local radio station was music, and this went on till about 1 am. We were all extremely puzzled as to why no election results were being declared. Our suspicions should have been aroused by the fact that every half hour, the local radio station kept playing Roger Whittaker’s “New World in the Morning.”
This should have been a warning, a portent of things to come. The local radio station kept repeating this piece of music every half hour until around 1 am, when the election results started flooding in. It was not a defeat, it was not a rout – it was a massacre. As I recall, the Ceylon Parliament consisted of 160 seats in 1970 prior to the election, with the UNP (United National Party) holding 90 seats and the other parties 70 among them. This time, the UNP lost 65 seats and the other parties won 65 seats.The poker game came to an end by 1.30 am and all of us, save for my parents, left for our respective homes. We were shattered. We were completely unaware of the extent to which our lives would change dramatically in the next 12 months as a result of this election.
Astrology
An interesting feature of this election was that Mr Dudley Senanayake’s astrologer was horribly wrong when he predicted that the prime minister would win the election if it was held on May 27, 1970. As a result of the prediction, the prime minister held the election and lost. Some Westerners may scoff at such primitive superstitions, but then why are whole pages devoted in their daily newspapers to astrological predictions?
Regrettably, I too have had my fair share of astrological predictions. In 1960 when I returned to Ceylon and went to the Bar, things were extremely difficult for me. Although my father was chairman of the Associated Motorways Group and a large insurance company, he had sent the secretaries of these companies a directive that I should not be given work.
I knew the secretary, Salman, who told me that there was a brilliant astrologer working as a clerk in the Associated Motorways Group. Salman suggested that I go and see him to obtain an astrological prediction about my future. I went to see him wearing dishevelled clothes and a pair of slippers. I told him what my date and time of birth was and he told me to come a week later. I turned up a week later to see him with Salman. This man looked at me sadly and said, “You poor man. You have no future at all. You are poor and you will always be poor. You have a Kemathrama Yoga.” Salman looked at him and said, “You idiot. This is the chairman’s son!”
One day in the middle of 1964, I was in the Law Library where the advocates normally congregated when they were not in court. I was chatting with two friends of mine, Satyendra and Navaratnarajah, when Satyendra told us that he knew a brilliant astrologer in Jaffna who could read horoscopes and accurately predict the future.
A few days later Nava and I gave Satyendra our respective birth details etc. to pass on to the astrologer who would make up our horoscopes and predict our futures. A couple of weeks later Satyendra turned up with our horoscopes. Satyendra told Nava that the astrologer had predicted a brilliant future for him. Saty then looked at me sadly and said that my horoscope predicted that I had no future. Although it terrified me at the time, this story had both a sad and a happy ending. A month later Nava, contracted hepatitis and died. The happy ending was that I believe the astrologer mixed up our dates of birth, for Nava now had no future and I ended up with a good future.
In fairness to astrology, I must relate an incident that occurred during the middle of 1971. The die was cast and I had crossed the Rubicon. There was a venerable old gentleman at the Ceylon Bar, a Mr M. Somasunderam. He was a contemporary of Dad’s. Someone at the Bar told me that Soma was excellent at reading palms and was an exceptional palmist. I buttonholed him in the Law Library and asked him whether I could speak to him on a personal matter. I told him that I was going to live out my days in Australia so could he please read my palm and tell me what my future was.
He took my palm in his hand and studied it for quite some time. He smiled a gentle smile, then said, “Wikramanayake, you have nothing to worry about. You will have a brilliant future in Australia” I was flabbergasted. I told him that this was impossible as I knew no one in Australia. He patted me on the shoulder smiled, saying, “Remember me when you are famous.” So, Soma, I am having a glass of Blue Label Scotch whisky in remembrance of you while I type this memoir.
Post-election horror
Elections in Ceylon were gory events. As one of the leaders of the Gauls said, when addressing the Roman Senate well over 2,000 years ago, “Vae ago, ae victis – woe to the conquered” The supporters of the successful winning party always exacted their revenge on the supporters of the losing party. A large number of supporters of the losing party were usually viciously beaten up while the police watched on without interfering, and houses belonging to members of the United National Party were torched.
The country was quiet on Sunday, but on Monday, the assaults and beatings started. I remember what happened to a cousin of mine, Michael Wikramanayake. He was the manager of a large government cooperative store. Michael had been known for the fact being a UNP sympathiser. He was seated in his office on Monday morning when the workers stormed in. They tied him to his chair and poured blue and red paint over him. Blue paint symbolised the Sri Lankan Freedom Party (SLFP), the red paint the Communist Party. Michael was badly beaten and lost an eye. The poor man was devastated; he not only lost his job but received no help from the police.
Yet this was only the beginning. Mrs Bandaranaike had more than a two-thirds majority in Parliament, and she amended the constitution. She announced that Sinhalese was to be the national language, and that cases in the law courts would shortly be conducted in the Sinhalese language and not in English, as had been done for over 150 years. Court documents were also to be written in the Sinhalese language. Up to that time, the work in the courts was conducted in English. The government created a High Court, a new court midway between the District Court and the Supreme Court. The government appointed seventeen new judges from lawyers who were members of Mrs Bandaranaike’s party, the SLFP. Lawyers from her party who were competent in Sinhalese were tasked with translating the Civil Procedure Code and the laws of the country into Sinhalese.
My attempt at coping
I took on two extremely competent young Sinhalese-educated lawyers as my readers to help me cope with conducting my cases in Sinhalese. Regrettably, I must confess that although I could speak my mother tongue, I could scarcely read or write it. I would now have to learn to think in Sinhalese. How was I to do this? I was thirty-seven years old.
My father had been a classics scholar before he studied law. He had introduced me to The Iliad, The Odyssey, Sophocles, Aeschylus, Euripides and the like when I was ten years old. English was the language we spoke at home and Sinhalese was used only to speak to the servants. I am not proud of this fact. While I was growing up, the British were in power and my language was suppressed by the British, who called it “the vernacular” This continued until I was fifteen years old.
In school, we had one period a week in Sinhalese before Ceylon received independence. I excelled in all the other subjects, save for my mother tongue. In 1948, when we received our independence the scene changed dramatically. From this time, we had a period of two hours of Sinhalese every day and I just could not cope with it. I was slapped regularly by my Sinhalese master, Mr Jayasekere, for not knowing Sinhalese. I excelled in Latin but failed miserably in Sinhalese. I never received less than 190 marks out of 200 in Latin but no more than 40 out of 200 in Sinhalese. This went on for several years until I went off to England to study, to widen my repertoire and broaden my horizons.
My lack of knowledge of my mother tongue had now returned to haunt me. After the election in May 1970, I mentioned my displeasure at this new turn of events in the Law Library to a Sinhalese-educated advocate. He sniggered and said sarcastically, “The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on” Yes, the caravan was moving on and leaving me behind barking madly.
I thought to myself, how the hell am I going to think and address the court in Sinhalese? I was at my wits’ end wondering what to do. As the situation continued like this for a few months I was beginning to despair. The two new Sinhala-educated lawyers I had employed tried to help me cope with my lack of knowledge of the Sinhalese language but to no avail.
I happened to go to the Magistrates’ Court in Colombo South in August 1970 and met a friend of mine, Clarence Fernando. We were discussing our situation and pondering what we were to do. Clarence told me that all was not lost. A friend of his, Frank Pereira, had recently migrated to Australia. He told me that Frank was in the legal profession and was doing extremely well. Heartened by this little titbit, I decided to emigrate to Australia. Had I known the truth about Frank Pereira, I certainly would not have abandoned my large practice at the Ceylon Bar and migrated to Australia. I could still have conquered the Sinhalese language and have had a gracious life in Ceylon.
I returned home and asked my dear wife Anna Maria, “Shall we go to Australia?” Anna Maria, bless her, was always game for anything I wanted to do. It was only many years later that she told me she was terrified when I had asked her whether we should go to Australia.When I came to Australia I learned that Frank Pereira was a law clerk earning a relatively small income of $30 a week. In 1970, secretaries in Australia were earning $60 a week.
Napoleon Bonaparte
In desperation I turned for guidance to my Emperor, Napoleon Bonaparte. Napoleon had been a great source of inspiration to me ever since my school days. One of my classmates, Ralph Deraniyagala, was an avid disciple of Napoleon. He suffered from a bad case of Napoleonitis and was an eccentric young boy. When we were young lads in our early teens, he had selected most of us, in class, to be Napoleon’s marshals and I was fortunate to be chosen as Marshal Ney.
Ralph was not only eccentric but also extremely impulsive. He would disrupt our lessons in class by springing up from his seat and shouting out to one of his marshals to charge. He would seriously upset the equilibrium in the class but the masters tolerated his bizarre behaviour. As a result of Ralph, I started devouring whatever books I could read on the life of Napoleon Bonaparte, starting with Abbott’s magnificent treatise on the life of Napoleon. Napoleon was of the view that there was always a “Career open to talent” He proclaimed that he was “a Corsican by birth, a Frenchman by adoption and an Emperor by conquest”. It was his belief that if one had ability, one could succeed anywhere in the world. So I decided to take up the challenge and emigrate to Australia.
Ronnie de Kretser
One of my father’s readers, Ivor Misso, had left for Australia in the 1950s. Misso had a substantial practice in the District Court of Colombo but had left for what he thought would be greener pastures. Dad wrote to him to ask him whether he could help me in my new adventure. Ivor Misso wrote back, suggesting that Dad write to Ronnie de Kretser, a partner in the solicitors’ firm of Weigall & Crowther in Melbourne. Ronnie had qualified as a proctor of the Ceylon Supreme Court in 1948 and left for Australia at the same time as Ivor Misso in 1956. Dad then wrote to Ronnie who advised me to put in my application for immigration and send him a copy, as the Minister for Immigration, Mr Phillip Lynch, was a good friend of his.
We duly made our application for immigration in November and we were successful due to the efforts of Ronnie de Kretser. I received a warm letter from Phillip Lynch congratulating me on my application and wishing me all the best in my new country. We were passed for immigration in December and it was only then I began to have second thoughts about migrating to Australia.However, Melbourne, my intended destination, was not unfamiliar to me as Dad had brought us out to Australia on a one-month holiday in 1952.1 had liked it then.
Distribution of work
Late in 1970, all the government corporation work was given to friends of the SLFP, Mrs Bandaranaike’s party. This was nothing new. Each successive government in Ceylon repaid its loyal supporters by giving them government legal work. (I was to be unpleasantly surprised many years later to also find that some work in Australia is handed out on patronage and privilege.)
One of the privileged few was P Herat who did work on the “motion roll”, which consisted of the list of summary matter applications to be heard in the Motion Court. That was the extent of his practice. The five District Courts had an hour’s work on the motion roll every morning before the trials for the day were heard. These summary matters were determined by the judge. Herat had never conducted a trial prior to Mrs Bandaranaike coming to power in 1970, and did not know how a trial should be conducted.
As I mentioned earlier, I had a large and a lucrative commercial practice. I was briefed for the defendant in a “mortgage bond” case. In Ceylon, a mortgage under Roman-Dutch law could only be enforced by court proceedings, unlike in Australia, where proceedings for possession could be issued after the mortgage had been terminated by appropriate notice. I had no defence to the action as my client was seriously in default of his obligations under the mortgage.
Herat was briefed to appear for the plaintiff, the State Mortgage Bank, a government institution. When we went to court, he was gloating and told me that the days of the English-speaking advocates were over for it was now the turn of the Sinhala-educated lawyers.
The case was called on for hearing before Judge Vaitialingam. Herat opened his case with bravado and then led his evidence. He kept smirking as he knew my client had no defence. The evidence he led was short and sweet. He led evidence that the mortgage had not been paid, then sat down. He did not lead any evidence that my client was in default. He did not lead any evidence that a demand had been paid for the arrears. Nor did he lead any evidence that my client had failed to cure his default. He then closed his case.
I asked him whether he had finished. He said “yes” I asked him several times whether he had finished and he kept getting angrier and angrier. The judge then asked him whether he had finished and he again replied “yes” I then made a No Case submission upon which Herat sought to re-open his case. The judge refused his application, saying that I had asked him sever-at times whether he had finished to which Herat had replied “yes” The judge had also asked him the same question and got an answer in the affirmative. He refused Herat’s application and dismissed his case.
It cost the bank Rs 150,000 or the equivalent of $30,000, a substantial sum of money in 1970.1 gave Herat the two-finger salute which Henry V’s longbowman gave the French at the Battle of Agincourt and walked out of court.Suffice it to say that Herat did not get another government brief. This case was not included here for the purpose of skiting about my forensic ability, but for the purpose of illustrating that patronage can occasionally go wrong.
Features
Dilemmas of ‘hurting economies’ – the case of Sri Lanka
Maldives President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu was in Sri Lanka recently on what was apparently a goodwill visit and this event, no doubt, bodes very well for Maldives-Sri Lanka relations. Besides, the visit would go some distance in strengthening Sri Lanka’s claims to Non-Alignment.
However, the commentator on regional politics could be accused of simplistic thinking if he/she glosses over or ignores the regional politics nuances or undertones of the Maldivian President’s visit. In Sri Lanka we currently have a government which is eager to solidify its bridges, so to speak, with China and which, given the chance, would be courting increasingly close relations with Russia. In other words, the NPP government is likely to see itself as a ‘natural ally’ of the East and would prefer to distance itself to the extent possible from the West, if that is a realistic proposition.
Given the foregoing backdrop, it would be in some of the NPP regime’s best interests to be on cordial terms with the Maldives which is a close ally of China in the South Asian region. However, the NPP government, given the utter financial helplessness of Sri Lanka, cannot afford to distance itself politically and diplomatically from India and the West. Sheer economic necessity compels Sri Lanka to adopt this foreign policy stance. In other words, the latter has no choice but to be ‘Non-Aligned.’
This columnist was led to the above observations on listening to a lucid and comprehensive presentation titled, ‘A Global Economy in the Shadow of the Iran War and implications for Sri Lanka’s debt recovery’, by Dr. Ganeshan Wignaraja, Visiting Senior Fellow, ODI Global London, at the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo on May 4th. The forum, RCSS Strategic Dialogue – 4, was moderated and presided over by RCSS Executive Director Ambassador (retd) Ravinatha Aryasinha.
The forum brought together a wide cross section of society, including diplomatic personnel, academicians, public and private sector personalities and the media. After the presentation a very lively and informative Q&A followed.
Ambassador Aryasinha at the outset set an appropriate backdrop to the presentation and discussion by stressing ‘the increasing interconnectedness of geopolitical and economic developments, noting how disruptions in the Middle East could have significant ramifications for global markets, trade flows, energy prices and broader economic stability, including Sri Lanka.’
Indeed, there are occurring currently very disruptive economic and material consequences for the world from ‘the Iran War’, and with US-Iran hostilities spiraling in West Asia it may not be wrong to surmise that the worst could be yet to come, unless a peace process materializes in earnest.
Meanwhile, ‘hurting countries’ such as Sri Lanka would need to summon their best economic management capabilities to remain materially and economically afloat. ‘Economic transformation’ is what is urgently needed and not mere management and some of the insights thrown up by Dr. Ganeshan Wignaraja should have the local polity thinking.
There was the following observation, for instance: ‘Sri Lanka has achieved remarkable cyclical stabilization but faces critical challenges in transitioning to transformative growth, with 2027-2028 debt repayments looming and only $5.4 billion usable reserves.’
Needless to say, the path ahead to ‘transformative growth’ for Sri Lanka is strewn with multiple challenges and meeting them effectively is of the first importance. Sri Lanka must soldier on towards even a semblance of development in the short and medium terms and such initiatives cannot be separated from its foreign policy choices since the country’s economic partners and their growth prowess have a close bearing on the country’s material fortunes.
As mentioned, Sri Lanka will be compelled to be ‘a friend of all countries and an enemy of none’ going forward but it cannot afford to be seen as cultivating China as a close growth partner at the expense of India and other major economies of the region.
This is primarily because while India is remaining a major economic power, the current West Asian crisis notwithstanding, China’s economy is being seen as ‘slowing’. Dr. Wignaraja singled out the following in the main as the factors causing this slow-down: a bursting property bubble, increasing state regulation, and weakening investor confidence. Besides, the speaker sees production cycles moving away from China and India replacing China and Hong Kong as ‘manufacturing hubs’.
Accordingly, the NPP regime in Sri Lanka would need to craft its regional policy in particular with the utmost far-sightedness. It will need to have close economic links with all the growth centres that matter.
On the question of authentic economic transformation, the following observations of Dr. Wignaraja on Sri Lanka’s economy are of the first importance as well: ‘Foreign reserves are now at $ 5.4 billion, the cost of living is high, an estimated 20 per cent of the population lives below the poverty line of $ 3.65 per day, the recent cyber security breach at the Treasury would affect some 10 payments.’ These factors were termed ‘critical vulnerabilities’.
It is difficult to conceive of an economic transformation worthy of the phrase minus a steady economic empowerment of the populace. The above data point to the considerable magnitude of the local poverty problem. Right now, the disruptive effects of the West Asian crisis render swift poverty alleviation a most difficult proposition.
One possible way out of the present economic debacle is the forging of a national consensus by the present government on all outstanding problems that have been bedeviling the country’s advancement. That is, there needs to be a meeting of minds across current political divides. Considering the present inflammatory political polarities in Sri Lanka this would prove an insurmountable challenge.
Unfortunately, conscience-filled and civic minded sections in Sri Lanka have chosen to be laid back rather than seize the initiative, come centre stage and impress on politicians the need for enlightened governance and progressive change. There needs to be a historic coming together of the right thinking to ensure that the best interests of the people and of the people only are served by governments. In the absence of such a process, might would be projected as right and brute force would come to increasingly rule politics and society.
Features
Australia funds project to restore climate-resilient vegetable livelihoods in cyclone-affected highlands
The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Lands and Irrigation, the Government of Australia, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have launched of a AUD 2 million (USD 1.4 million) recovery initiative to restore and transform vegetable production systems in the cyclone-affected districts of Nuwara Eliya and Badulla.
The FAO said yesterday (5) that the agreement was formalized through the signing of the grant agreement by Matthew Duckworth, Australian High Commissioner to Sri Lanka, and Vimlendra Sharan, FAO Representative for Sri Lanka and the Maldives, alongside the signing of the project document by D. P. Wickramasinghe, Secretary of Agriculture.
Cyclone Ditwah, which struck Sri Lanka in November 2025, caused widespread devastation across the country, severely disrupting agricultural production systems and livelihoods. The highland districts of Nuwara Eliya and Badulla, key suppliers of vegetables such as beans, carrots, leeks, cabbage, tomato and potato, were among the hardest hit, with thousands of smallholder farmers losing crops, seed stocks, and productive assets.
This 12-month initiative aims torestore and strengthen climate-resilient vegetable production systems, with a strong focus on empowering women farmers and supporting persons with disabilities. The project will directly benefit more than 2,400 smallholder farmers, through improved seed and seedling production systems, small machinery, training, and market linkages while indirectly supporting thousands more.
“This initiative is an important step not only in restoring what was lost, but in building a more resilient and self-reliant agricultural sector,” said Minister Lal Kantha. “By strengthening local seed systems and supporting smallholder farmers, particularly women and vulnerable groups, we are investing in the long-term sustainability of Sri Lanka’s food systems.”
“Australia stands alongside Sri Lanka in its ongoing recovery from Cyclone Ditwah,” said High Commissioner Duckworth. “Australia is a steadfast partner in the agriculture sector with its importance for food security, rural development and climate resilience. By focusing on climate smart practices, farmer-led solutions and inclusive economic opportunities, this project will deliver meaningful and lasting benefits to affected communities.
The project will prioritize the restoration of farmer-led seed systems for beans and potatoes, support the re-establishment of both open-field and protected cultivation systems and women led seedling supply nurseries while empowering all farmers with Climate-Smart Good Agricultural Practices (CSGAP) with small scale machinery and input support.
A key feature of the initiative is the establishment of six accessible and inclusive nurseries in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla. These nurseries will serve as sustainable agri-based enterprises, producing high-quality vegetable seedlings while creating new income opportunities and strengthening local input supply chains.
By combining recovery support with long-term resilience measures, the project will help stabilize vegetable production, improve household food security and nutrition, and reduce reliance on imported seeds.
Features
War on Iran may hasten unraveling of New World Order
It took several decades for the US to realise it was losing the war in Vietnam. It took a bit shorter time in Afghanistan. And what is happening in the countries the US and Israel intervened and broke up? The US has been asked to leave Iraq. Syria is talking to Russia about establishing military bases, President al-Sharaa met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss the project, which is vital for Russian power projection in the Middle East. Libya has been divided into two competing administrative units with the Eastern section actively engaged with Russia in defence matters. The Sudanese government has finalised a 25-year deal to allow a Russian naval facility in the Red Sea in exchange for weapons, including anti-aircraft systems. On the Eastern side of the Red Sea, Yemen remains divided, with the main power center, the Houthis maintaining a staunchly anti-US, anti-Israel stance, while the internationally recognised government remains in exile.
When the Iranian Foreign Minister recently undertook a tour of Pakistan, Oman and Russia, the US wanted to meet him and got ready to send its negotiators Vice President J. D. Vance and his team to Pakistan, but Iranian FM snubbed them and left Pakistan, saying Iran did not want to talk to the US while a blockade of their ports were in place. The Iranian FM met President Putin, who congratulated Iran for courageously defending their country and then phoned US President Trump and told him further attacks on Iran would not be acceptable. During this conversation on April 27, 2026, Putin reportedly warned Trump that further U.S. or Israeli attacks on Iran would have dangerous consequences, according to Al Jazeera). Such a sequence of events would not have been possible in the unipolar world we had in the past.
Furthermore, the damage that Iran has inflicted on the US and Israel in this war would have been unimaginable in the late 20th Century and early 21st Century. Sixteen US military bases spread across Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan and Oman have been either destroyed or severely damaged. Advanced surveillance aircraft and radar systems worth more than $ 2.8 bn were destroyed. This had a far-reaching effect on the war as the US could not use these bases in the war against Iran and also in the defence of its allies in the Gulf.
The attacks on Israel have been equally damaging. In Central Israel and Tel Aviv area multiple attacks targeted military and intelligence assets, resulting in massive damage. Iranian missiles hit the Haifa oil refinery, causing a shutdown, and hit residential buildings, leading to injuries and structural damage. Residential and commercial areas were damaged in Bat Yam and Petah Tikva with significant casualties and destruction. Attacks in Dimona and Arad targeted the Negev Nuclear Research Center, with casualties reported in both towns. The Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba was hit in a strike. The strategic port and naval base in Eilat were targeted. In Rishon LeZion suburban residential areas suffered extensive damage.
Usually, Israel makes short work of its many enemies in the region, for example it took just six days to defeat the combined military of Egypt, Jordan and Syria in 1967 and grab their land as well. Hamas, Fatah and Palestinians would suffer ignominious defeats if they dare challenge Israel. However, the recent war against Hamas, following a daring wide scale invasion into Israel by Hamas in October 2023, went on for more than two years with no conclusive victory for Israel.
These significant massive military setbacks suffered by the combined forces of the US and Israel have been made possible by the unprecedented advancement in military technology achieved mainly by China and to a degree by Russia as well. Iran has been able to develop ballistic missile systems that could penetrate the “iron dome” that Israel boasted, with technological assistance from China and North Korea. Iran’s drones are very cheap yet very effective, requiring interceptors worth millions of dollars to counter them, thus making it much more costly for the US to fight this war than it is for Iran.
Further, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthies in Yemen and Hamas in Palestine are well equipped with advanced missiles and drones. Hezbollah has been able to destroy about hundred Israel tanks and stop their advance. According to Larry Johnson, former CIA intelligence analyst, Israel soldiers are much war weary and mentally affected and are being withdrawn. Netanyahu’s 40 year dream of a “Greater Israel” is telling on the poor soldiers.
If a person like Barack Obama had been the US President instead of the hyper egoistic, blustering, intellectually barren Trump, things may have been different. An attempt would have been made to reconcile with the fact that the world is changing, instead of trying to stop it and make “America Great Again”. Perhaps, it could be said that Trump is facilitating the emergence of the new world order by enabling the US citizens to see the reality, the futility of war and the fact that Israel is a liability because the US is fighting its war. Further, the war has enabled Iran to assert its place in the region and negotiate from a position of strength.
Perhaps, Israeli people may realise that the Palestine problem cannot be solved by militarily occupying their land, and that in a changing world a “Greater Israel” is a “pie in the sky”. They may have to agree to a two-state solution. US support may not always be forthcoming, certainly not at the level that Trump could extend, as this war is very unpopular and expensive. The other very significant fact is that Israeli settlers in the occupied lands feel insecure and one in three wants to leave and the numbers may grow when Palestinians and their sympathisers grow in strength in the new world order.
Moreover, the war on Iran has afforded China the opportunity to demonstrate with authority the fact that it stands for universal peace and does not tolerate illegal wars. Its message to the US conveyed its world view and its desire for peace in no uncertain terms. Trump cannot afford to disregard the Chinese position on the war on the eve of his visit to that country which may decide on future trade between the two countries as the US depends on China for several essential materials like rare earth minerals. Furthermore, China has shown that peace could be achieved by developing the economies of the underdeveloped countries irrespective of their alliances. It helps Iran as well as Saudi Arabia and try to build bridges between these foes. It welcomes Trump in the coming weeks and hopes to strengthen ties between the two countries despite the weaknesses of the latter.
Another important factor is the gradual decline of the critical value of the petro-dollar. Following the end of the gold standard in 1971, the US struck deals with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations (around 1974) to price oil exclusively in USD in exchange for military protection and arms sales. Dollars earned by selling oil came to be known as petro-dollar. Oil producers, holding large dollar surpluses, reinvest these funds in the US Treasury securities, real estate, and financial assets ensuring the recycling of petro-dollars. The system ensures a consistent global demand for US dollars, which helps fund the US budget deficit and maintains the currency’s dominance.
However, the petro-dollar system is on the decline and there are two main reasons for this, firstly the gradual rise of the new world order with organisations like BRICS, making a concerted effort to extricate from the dollar dominance by developing alternate currencies and methods to bypass the dollar. Secondly, the need felt by most countries to develop alternative energy sources to replace enormously harmful fossil fuel would eventually result in a decline in the demand for it and consequently the effectiveness of the petro-dollar. China is leading the world in both these endeavours; depolarisation process and renewable energy production. The war on Iran seems to have hastened the process of depolarisation as Iran insists that it will sell its oil for yuan only.
These revolutionary changes in the aftermath of the Iran war have their undeniable implications for the Global South, where more than 60% of the poor live.
by N. A. de S. Amaratunga
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