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America’s New Cold-War: The Balance Sheet

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In the long-run, the US cannot contain the rise of China

by Kumar David

A new cold-war has been declared. Mike Pompeo launched the first fusillade on July 23 and formally asked the world to “distrust” China and called for a grouping of nations in an anti-China alliance. He demanded the overthrow of the Chinese state: “The world cannot be safe until China changes . . . the world must change the Chinese Communist Party, or China will change us as is happening in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Xinjiang . . . Xi Jinping is not destined to tyrannize inside and outside China forever, unless we allow it . . . it is time for a new grouping of like-minded nations, a new alliance of democracies”. If ever there was a declaration of cold-war this is it! Phrases used by Pompeo include: “Frankenstein China”, “communist cover-up of the virus”, “distrust and verify” and “securing our freedoms from the Chinese Communist Party is the mission of our time”. The world is engaged in a new strategic ball-game and Sri Lanka will be entangled

The US perspective is consolidation of a ring of military steel round China. In the mind of Trump-Pompeo the technique used to achieve the fall of the USSR can be repeated. The Soviet economy was technologically and managerially backward, the Eastern European regimes were hated, neoliberalism had weakened Soviet power especially defeat in Afghanistan, and the Sino-Soviet split had debilitated communism. The rigid and grossly inept centrally directed economic system was not delivering nor was it up to the challenges of global competition. It was a half rotten low-lying fruit ready to fall. Regan’s star-wars challenge was too pricey to compete against. Gorbachev’s bungling created fissures through which popular uprisings overthrew the regime. But the big difference is that the USSR’s was a sick and hobbled economy, China’s is strong and robust. The pocket book talks louder than the diplomatic megaphone. China’s rise as an economic force is relentless and Asians have adjusted; even those with no affection for Beijing.

Whether Biden-Harris or Trump-Perry win it will make little difference to international policy. (There will be domestic policy differences but don’t hold your breath). There will be no difference in Middle East, trade and China policy. There is bipartisan determination to roll back China. Both Dems and GOP are fearful of its rise to economic supremacy and its climb up the military ladder. Pompeo may be a worst-case cold-war freak but there is bipartisan support for the overthrow the PRC state and using Hong Kong as a Trojan Horse. See video https://youtu.be/2JN2kXxuo58 and article

https://www.chinadailyhk.com/article/139477#National-Security-Law-a-valid-response-to-radicals-who-wished-HKSAR-harm

 

The QUAD strategy

The US and UK are working in collaboration. India is in the game for its own purposes which dovetails into the cold-war QUAD strategy (India, US, Japan and Australia). America is also coordinating a six-nation alliance – QUAD plus Australia and Canada. West Berlin, physically deep in East German territory, was a dagger in the heart of the wounded animal – propaganda, espionage, escape routes. The US-UK approach is to use Hong Kong in the same way. Money is in abundance while propaganda and training flow in through its open borders. But it won’t work because China’s economy is strong, American finance capital in decline. The Communists are moderately popular for material achievements, like pulling 600 million out of poverty. To destroy this state is impossible, but it is possible to make life uncomfortable for Beijing in global hard and soft power stakes.

It is colossally stupid of China to be drawn into skirmishes with India on remote Himalayan glaciers, whoever is right or wrong. After the 1962 fiasco China has no option but to avoid skirmishes even if it has to concede territory. China’s other ailment is again territorial greed; it throws its weight around the South China Sea bullying Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan and tiny Brunei. Geopolitically it is seen in poor light because of aggressive rampaging. Chinese zealots feel they can do no wrong, maybe “If Adam and Eve had been Chinese, we would all still be living in paradise”. If China gets its nose bloodied in these regional encounters I will be pleased. The new security laws to eliminate rioting and treason in Hong Kong was necessary, but repression of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang is inexcusable. Nevertheless, this cannot be generalised into support for the US cold-war agenda.

For what ungodly reason did China initiate a border war with India in 1962? A dispute over the sovereignty of remote border regions. Even if Mao believed this territory was legitimately Chinese, military action was unforgivable. Initiated by China the war was a huge foreign policy faux pas that bedevils relations to this day. India would not be sucked into the US laid quagmire now but for border conflicts. Indians feel that they cannot shy away from China containment. To add burlesque, India has banned 120 Chinese Apps, even children’s videos, for “strategic” reasons!

The depth of China hate among Indian scholars is on display in this quote: “The People’s Republic of China ruled by the communist party is an evil, inhuman and corrupt political entity, committed only to the expansion of the power and wealth of its leadership” and the writer adds “the leadership is on a mission to become the sole superpower with the rest of the world as vassals the Chinese empire” – Gurvinder Singh (http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/node/2644).

 

Is China cornered?

China’s economic power, aid and development reach outdo America’s; its economic clout is too big and its diplomatic footprint too large for America to contain. It accounts for one-third of global growth; its trade with Asian nations exceeds its trade with any other bloc; its intra-Asian trade is greater than Asian trade with the rest of the world. The West’s share of the global economy is shrinking and will continue to do so. The longer-term disparity is starker. The IMF projects that, by 2024 China’s contribution to global growth would exceed 28%, while that of the US would fall from 13.8 to 9.2%. Huawei stunned America with its stellar leap into the 5G stratosphere. The US produces half-a-million STEM graduates a year, China 4.5 million. The US is pressuring the world to roll back top Chinese technology but is it doable? Can one make water flow upstream?

 

China however is isolated compared to the large compact of states that the US has cobbled together; it needs allies, not only economic ones. Is the dispute with India irreversible, can it draw Vietnam, Indonesia and those on the Belt closer and can it loosen the US grip on Japan and S Korea? Former prime minister Kevin Rudd observed that an official Australian delegation poured “buckets of cold water on participation on contingency planning”. Asia recognises that the poise of the global order has changed and that China’s rise – backed by economic and military capability – must be accommodated. The Philippines and Vietnam have shifted strategy, markedly. China has already achieved parity with the US in several military modernisation areas and is likely to double its nuclear warhead stockpile over the next decade according to a 2020 Pentagon report. Beijing is thinking long-term, as Chinese are wont to do; America’s obsession with quick fixes won’t do. The Chinese will not rule the world one day in the future, but a far more multi-polar order is a certainty within less than a generation.

 

[Next week I will have a follow up on the implication of this new cold war for Sri Lanka and explain why in my view we are overestimating our strategic importance for all players except India]



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Peace march and promise of reconciliation

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Peace walk in progress

The ongoing peace march by a group of international Buddhist monks has captured the sentiment of Sri Lankans in a manner that few public events have done in recent times. It is led by the Vietnamese monk Venerable Thich Pannakara who is associated with a mindfulness movement that has roots in Vietnamese Buddhist practice and actively promoted among diaspora communities in the United States. The peace march by the monks, accompanied by their mascot, the dog Aloka, has generated affection and goodwill within the Buddhist and larger community. It follows earlier peace walks in the United States where monks carried a similar message of mindfulness and compassion across communities but without any government or even media patronage as in Sri Lanka.

This initiative has the potential to unfold into an effort to nurture a culture of peace in Sri Lanka. Such a culture is necessary if the country as the country prepares to move beyond its history of conflict towards a more longlasting reconciliation and a political solution to its ethnic and religious divisions. The government’s support for the peace march can be seen as part of a broader attempt to shape such a culture. The Clean Sri Lanka programme, promoted by the government as a civic responsibility campaign focused on environmental cleanliness, ethical conduct and social discipline, provides a useful framework within which such initiatives can be situated. Its emphasis on collective responsibility and shared public space makes it sit well with the values that peacebuilding requires.

government’s previous plan to promote a culture of peace was on the occasion of “Sri Lanka Day” celebrations which were scheduled to take place on December 12-14 last year but was disrupted by Cyclone Ditwah. The Sri Lanka Day celebrations were to include those talented individuals from each and every community at the district level who had excelled in some field or the other, such as science, business or arts and culture and selected by the District Secretariats in each of the 25 districts. They were to gather in Colombo to engage in cultural performances and community-focused exhibitions. The government’s intention was to build up a discourse around the ideas of unity in diversity as a precursor to addressing the more contentious topics of human rights violations during the war period, and issues of accountability and reparations for wrongs suffered during that dark period.

Positive Response

The invitation to the international monks appears to have emerged from within Buddhist religious networks in Sri Lanka that have long maintained links with the larger international Buddhist community. The strong support extended by leading temples and clergy within the country, including the Buddhists Mahanayakes indicates that this was not an isolated effort but one that resonated with the mainstream Buddhist establishment. Indeed, the involvement of senior Buddhist leaders has been particularly noteworthy. A Joint Declaration for Peace in the world, drawing on Sri Lanka’s own experience, and by the Mahanayakes of all Buddhist Chapters took place in the context of the ongoing peace march at the Gangaramaya Temple in Colombo, with participation from the diplomatic community. The declaration, calling for compassion, dialogue and sustainable peace, reflects an effort by religious leadership to assert a moral voice in favour of coexistence.

The popular response to the peace march has also been striking. Large numbers of people have been gathering along the route, offering flowers, water and support to the monks. Schoolchildren have been lining the roads, and communities from different religious backgrounds extend hospitality. On the way, the monks were hosted by both a Hindu temple and a mosque, where food and refreshments were provided. These acts, though simple, carry a message about the possibility of harmony among Sri Lanka’s diverse communities. It helps to counter the perception that the Buddhist community in Sri Lanka is inherently nationalist and resistant to minority concerns that was shaped during the decades of war and reinforced by political mobilisation that too often exploited ethnic identity.

By way of contrast, the peace march offers a different image. It shows a readiness among ordinary people to embrace values of compassion and coexistence that are deeply embedded in Buddhist teaching. The Metta Sutta, one of the most well-known discourses in Buddhism, calls for boundless goodwill towards all beings. It states that one should cultivate a mind that is “boundless towards all beings, free from hatred and ill will.” This emphasis on universal compassion provides a moral foundation for peace that extends beyond national or ethnic boundaries. The monks themselves emphasised this point repeatedly during the walk. Venerable Thich Pannakara reminded those who gathered that while acts of generosity are commendable, mindfulness in everyday life is even more important. He warned that as people become unmindful, they are more prone to react with anger and hatred, thereby contributing to conflict.

More Initiatives

The presence of political leaders at key moments of the march has emphasised the significance that the government attaches to the event. Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya paid her respects to the peace march monks in Kandy, while President Anura Kumara Dissanayake is expected to do so at the conclusion of the march in Colombo. Such gestures signal an alignment between political authority and moral aspiration, even if the translation of that aspiration into policy remains a work in progress. At the same time, the peace march has not been without its shortcomings. The walk did not engage with the Northern and Eastern parts of the country, regions that were most affected by the war and where the need for reconciliation is most acute. A more inclusive geographic reach would have strengthened the symbolic impact of the initiative.

In addition, the positive impact of the peace march could have been increased if more effort had been taken to coordinate better with other civic and religious groups and include them in the event. Many civil society and religious harmony groups who would have liked to participate in the peace march found themselves unable to do so. There was no place in the programme for them to join. Even government institutions tasked with promoting social cohesion and reconciliation found themselves outside the loop. The Clean Sri Lanka Task Force that organised the peace march may have felt that involving other groups would have made it more complicated to organise the events which have proceeded without problems.

The hope is that the positive energy and goodwill generated by this peace march will not dissipate but will instead inspire further initiatives with the requisite coordination and leadership. The march has generated public discussion, drawn attention to the values of mindfulness and compassion, and created a space in which people can imagine a different future. It has been a special initiative among the many that are needed to build a culture of peace. A culture of peace cannot be imposed from above nor can it emerge overnight. It needs to be nurtured through multiple efforts across society, including education, religious engagement, civic initiatives and political reform. It is within such a culture that the more difficult questions of power sharing, justice and reconciliation can be addressed in a constructive manner.

by Jehan Perera

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Regional Universities

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Development initiatives: Faculty of Technology, University of Jaffna and NCDB

The countryside and peripheral regions have been neglected in the national imagination for many decades. This has also been the case with regional universities which were seen as mere appendages to the university system, and sometimes created to appease political constituencies in the regions. The exclusion of the rural world and the institutions in those regions was not accidental nor inevitable, but the consequence of conscious policies promoted under an extractive and exploitative global order. Neoliberalism globalisation, initiated in the late 1970s with far-reaching policies of free trade and free flow of capital, or the “open economy,” as we call it in Sri Lanka, is now dying. The United States and the Western countries that promoted neoliberalism, as a class project of finance capital to address the falling profits during the long economic downturn in the 1970s, are themselves reversing their policies and are at loggerheads with each other. However, those economic processes will continue to have national consequences into the future.

At the heart of such policies is the neoliberal city, which has become the centre of the economy with expanding financial businesses and a real estate boom. Such financialised cities also had their impact on universities, in lower income countries, where commercialised education with high fees, rising student debt, research for businesses and transnational educational linkages with branch campuses of Western universities, have become a reality.

In the case of Sri Lanka, while neoliberal policies began with the IMF and World Bank Structural Adjustment Programmes, in the late 1970s, the long civil war forestalled the accelerated growth of the neoliberal city. I have argued, over the last decade and a half, that it is with the end of the civil war, in 2009, coinciding with the global financial crisis, that a second wave of neoliberalism in Sri Lanka led to global finance capital being absorbed in infrastructure and real estate in Colombo. The transformation of Colombo into a neoliberal city was overseen by Gotabaya Rajapaksa as Defence Secretary with even the Urban Development Authority brought under the security establishment. While Colombo was drastically changing with a skyline of new buildings and shiny luxury vehicles drawing on massive external debt, there were also moves to promote private higher education institutions. The Board of Investment (BOI) registered many hundred so-called higher education institutions; these were not regulated and many mushroomed like supermarkets and disappeared in no time when they incurred losses.

In contrast to these so-called private higher education institutions that proliferated in and around Colombo, Sri Lanka, drawing on its free education system, has, over the last many decades, also created a number of state universities in peripheral regions. However, these regional universities lack adequate funding and a clear vision and purpose. The current conjuncture with the neoliberal global order unravelling, and the immediate global crisis in energy and transport are grim reminders of the importance of local economies and self-sufficiency. In this column I consider the role of our regional universities and their relationship to the communities within which they are embedded.

Regional context

The necessity and the advantage of robust public services is their reach into peripheral regions and marginalised communities. This is true of public transport, as it is with public hospitals. Private buses will always avoid isolated rural routes as their margins only increase on the busy routes between cities and towns. And private hospitals and clinics flock to the cities to extract from desperate patients, including by unscrupulous doctors who divert patients in public hospitals to be served in the private health facilities they moonlight. Similarly, it is affluent cities and towns that are the attraction for private educational institutions.

Public institutions, including universities, can only ensure their public role if they are adequately funded. Over the last decade and a half, with falling allocations for education, our state universities have been pushed into initiating fee levying courses, both at the post-graduate level and also for undergraduate international students. These programmes are seen as avenues to decrease the dependence of universities on budgetary support. However, the reality is that it is only universities in Colombo that can draw in students capable of paying such high fees. Furthermore, such fee levying courses end up pushing academics into overwork including by offering additional income.

Therefore, allocations for underfunded regional universities need to be steadily increased. Housing facilities and other services for academics working in rural districts would ensure their continued presence and greater engagement with the local communities. Increased time away from teaching and research funding earmarked for community engagement will provide clear direction for academics. Indeed, such funding with a clear vision and role for regional universities can provide considerable social returns. In a time when repeated crises are affecting our society, agricultural production to bolster our food system as well as rural income streams and employment are major issues. Here, regional universities have an important role today in developing social and economic alternatives.

Reimagining development

In recent months, there have been interesting initiatives in the Northern Province, where the Universities of Jaffna and Vavuniya have been engaging state institutions on issues of development. In an initiative to bring different actors together, high level meetings have been convened between the staff of the Agriculture Faculty and officials of the Provincial Agriculture Ministry to figure out solutions for long pending agricultural problems. Similar meetings have also been organised between provincial authorities and the Faculties of Technology and Engineering in Kilinochchi. These initiatives have led to academics engaging communities and co-operatives on their development needs, particularly in formulating new development initiatives and activating idle projects and assets in the region. Such engagement provides opportunities for academics to share their knowledge and skills while learn from communities about challenges that lead to new problems for research.

One of the most rewarding engagements I have been part of is an internship programme for the Technology Faculty of the University of Jaffna, where four batches of final year students, from food technology, green farming and automobile specialities, have been placed for six months within the co-operative movement through the Northern Co-operative Development Bank. This initiative has created a strong relationship between the Technology Faculty and the co-operative movement, with a number of former students now working fulltime in co-operative ventures. They are at the centre of developing solutions for rural co-operatives, including activating idle factories and ensuring quality and standards for their products.

I refer to these concrete initiatives because universities’ role in research and development in Sri Lanka, as in most other countries, are often narrowly conceived to be engagement with private businesses. However, for rural regions, the challenge, even with technological development, is the generation of appropriate technologies that can serve communities.

In Sri Lanka, we have for long emulated the major Western universities and in the process lost sight of the needs of our own youth and communities. Rethinking the development of our universities may have to begin with an understanding of the real challenges and context of our people. Our universities and their academics, if provided with a progressive vision and adequate resources and time to engage their communities, have the potential to address the many economic and social challenges that the next decade of global turmoil is bound to create.

Ahilan Kadirgamar is a political economist and Senior Lecturer, University of Jaffna.

(Kuppi is a politics and pedagogy happening on the margins of the lecture hall that parodies, subverts, and simultaneously reaffirms social hierarchies)

by Ahilan Kadirgamar

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‘Disco Lady’ hitmaker now doing it for Climate Change

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The name Alston Koch is generally associated with the hit song ‘Disco Lady.’ Yes, he has had several other top-notch songs to his credit but how many music lovers are aware that Alston is one of the few Asian-born entertainers using music for climate advocacy, since 2008.

He is back in the ‘climate change’ scene, with SUNx Malta, to celebrate Earth Day 2026, with the release of ‘A Symphony for Change’ – a vibrant Dodo4Kids video by Alston.

The inspiring musical video highlights ocean conservation and empowers children as future climate champions, honouring Maurice Strong’s legacy through education, creativity, and global collaboration for a sustainable planet.

The four-minute animated musical, composed and performed by platinum award-winning artiste Alston Koch, brings to life a resurrected Dodo, guiding children on a mission to clean up marine environments.

With a catchy melody and an uplifting message, the video blends entertainment with education—making climate awareness accessible and engaging for the next generation.

SUNx Malta is a Climate Friendly Travel system, focused on transforming the global tourism sector that is low-carbon, SDG-linked, and nature-positive.

Professor Geoffrey Lipman, President of SUNx Malta, described the project as a joyful collaboration with purpose:

“It’s always a pleasure to produce music with Alston for the good of our planet. And this time, to incorporate our Dodo4Kids in the video urging the next generation of young climate champions to help save our seas.”

For Alston, now based in Australia, the collaboration continues a long-standing journey of climate-focused creativity:

Says Alston: “I have been working on climate songs since the first release, in 2009, of the video ‘Act Now.’ Since then, I’ve performed at major global events—from Bali to Glasgow. I wrote this song because the climate horizon is darkening, and our kids and grandkids are our best hope for a brighter future.”

Alston’s very first climate song is ‘Can We Take This Climate Change,’ released in 2008.

It was written by Alston for the World Trade Organisation presentation, in London, and presented at ‘Live the Deal Climate Change’ conference in Copenhagen.

The Sri Lankan-born singer was goodwill ambassador for the campaign, and the then UK Minister Barbara Follett called it a “gift in song to the world suffering due to climate change.”

Alston said he wrote it after noticing butterflies, birds, and fruit trees disappearing from his childhood days.

In 2017, his creation ‘Make a Change’ was released in connection with World Tourism Day 2017.

Alston Koch’s work on climate advocacy is pretty inspiring, especially as climate change is now creating horrifying problems worldwide, and in Sri Lanka, too.

Alston also indicated to us that he has plans to visit Sri Lanka, sometime this year, and, maybe, even plan out a date for an Alston Koch special … a concert, no doubt.

Can’t wait for it!

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