Opinion
Mismatch between Sri Lanka’s potential and performance
Sri Lanka’s unprecedented economic crisis in 2022 was not a sudden occurrence. It was in the making for decades and exploded when the contradictions could not be sustained any longer. The Governor of the Central Bank expects the economy to reach 2018/19 levels next year, meaning that we are sliding back by almost a decade.
The inability to have seen this earlier is a heavy indictment on the economists at the Central Bank and officials of the Ministry of Finance. Those same officials are now the main advisors to the government. They are not trained in development economics and most of them rely on econometrics and mathematics, which makes them vulnerable to neoliberal ‘mythematics’.
Sri Lanka’s true potential was not understood by local leaders and officials. Many outsiders did express the ‘great potential’ that the country possessed, particularly with regard to its strategic location. The major task the governments, past and present, face is to reduce the gap between the country’s real potential and its performance. To do so one has to know what the real potential is, which requires an expanded thinking process. Another way would be to observe others in the region and how they exceeded their own expectations in development.
Insanity of Repeating Neoliberal Mantras
The thinking of officials over the years has been to borrow now and expect the situation to improve later. After the 1950s in Sri Lanka, there were no more ‘Korean booms’ – only busts which led to seeking IMF support as well as other forms of borrowing for consumption rather than developing industry.
What is amazing is that many officials expect the same thinking that got Sri Lanka into its worst mess will help us get out of it. If the IMF programme were focused on export development and the balance of payments rather than the budget, perhaps the thinking would have shifted. Instead, the IMF is pushing the country towards more ‘debt financing’ to meet debt servicing obligations by 2028 – the cause of the crisis in the first place! Together with austerity, this model has pushed the majority of the population below the poverty line.
In the present situation, with the ongoing IMF programme, the maximum that the government can do is tinker a little bit here and there. Without a major development drive, which is desperately needed, not much change can be expected. The smallness of thinking, which has been the trend over the past four and a half decades, leads to low and unambitious targets. Few realise how far Sri Lanka’s economy has lagged behind.
The Scale of Sri Lanka’s Lag
The only way to indicate the scale of Sri Lanka’s economic lag is by drawing comparison with other countries in our region, some of them well below Sri Lanka at independence in 1948. Except for three countries – Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos – all the others have a GDP of close to or above $500 billion, while Sri Lanka is struggling to reach $100 billion. Therefore, one could see that our lag is around $400 billion, with many missed opportunities over the period.
What has to be understood is that reaching that level of GDP was not an impossible task, if handled wisely. What Sri Lanka lacks is a proper plan and thought process.
One of Sri Lanka’s biggest missed opportunities was the failure to make Trincomalee the ‘oil hub of Asia’ long before Singapore. This alone could have sustained our economy for a hundred years or more. Making best use of Trincomalee would have included the establishment of an integrated steel mill for export and opening the door for a shipbuilding industry.
At independence, there were funds available for both these due to the Sterling Balances Agreement of 1948. However, what was not available was the innovative thinking. By contrast, South Korea established the state-owned POSCO (formerly Pohang Iron and Steel Company) steel mill with the reparations it received from Japan – this brought in billions in export revenue and laid the foundation for industrial development.
One of our biggest mistakes was to depend on economists for development ideas. Development strategy should come from people with common sense and their feet on the ground. For example, throughout Asia it was engineers more than economists who led the development process.
Despite half the population living below the poverty line, preventing them from participating in productive economic activity, few to no rural production programmes were thought of except perhaps the 200-garment factory programme in the early 1990s. While vast sums have been spent on developing domestic agriculture, the farmer who was poor in 1948 remains poor seventy years later.
These are some of the mistakes that have contributed to Sri Lanka’s huge lag and failure to achieve and what many saw as the country’s great potential at independence. Though many opportunities have been missed, there are still many things that can be achievable with a proper programme.
The Problem of Industrial Development
Any developing country that hopes to advance would look towards industrial development. Countries that place great faith in orthodox economic theory wait for market forces to direct investment into industry. However, others who realise that the market is not developed enough to play this role would use the state to directly intervene in the economy to set up strategic industries.
In the state-led process, the first industries that are set up are import-substitution industries. These are also called ‘infant industries’ as they are new and have to be developed in stages. After establishing these industries, the developmental state has to perform many functions, including bringing more participants into the manufacturing process. The logical end would be the export stage which brings in export revenue and exposes companies to competition – this is seen in the East Asian experience.
In Sri Lanka, the industries that were established hardly moved beyond the first stage. Ministers were happy with merely creating some employment and did not push beyond to develop technology, production capacity, and export potential. On the other hand, orthodox thinkers called for a jump into export-oriented industries without realising the staged process required to ensure domestic value-addition.
Some economists used distinctions phrases such as ‘inward’ and ‘outward’ looking orientations. However, this misses the fact that these are two tactics of the same strategy. You can’t have one without the other except in a few special areas. When policy becomes focused on only one tactic, without considering the overarching strategic goal, it damages the idea of industrial development.
Both Hands Tied Behind the Back
No country has developed along neoliberal lines. Even the industrialised countries of the West used very different methods from what they preach now. The only countries to have successfully developed their economies, within our lifetime, did so by the very opposite of the neoliberal ideas. The government should keep an open mind to alternatives. It should seriously consider joining Global South initiatives towards more just and effective international development organisations.
The Central Bank should be fully be involved in the development effort. In the United States, when the economy was down, it was the ‘New Economics’ of the Kennedy administration that got the economy up and going, with monetary and fiscal policy working together towards a common objective. Manipulated by the West, Sri Lanka has tied both its hands behind its back with the new Central Bank Act. The door to development has now been shut for Sri Lanka. Therefore, one wonders how the government hopes to bring about development on the required scale.
The power and purpose of ‘money’ should be understood. If money is the fuel that runs the economic engine, is it not important to consider who creates that money, for what purpose, and in whose interests? Neoliberalism does not permit Central Banks to assume the role of money creation, preferring to delegate that power to the private sector.
The economic history since independence should teach us to be careful with advice given by the IMF and World Bank. We need to develop our own confidence and broaden our thinking to craft a path forward. Ultimately, the objective should be to reach the country’s full potential. That requires a very different thinking from what has been used up to the present.
(Sunil Abhayawardhana was CEO of Sri Lanka’s largest heavy construction company. He has a master’s degree from the University of Wales and is working on a PhD in economics. He is a member of the Asia Progress Forum, which can be contacted at asiaprogressforum@gmail.com)
by Sunil Abhayawardhana
Opinion
Future of world religions
I refer to Dr Upul Wijayawardena’s recent letter on science and religion. I agree with him on the fate of religions in the modern world and would like to add the following observations on the evolution of religion and the advent of AI.
Religious philosophy evolved only in ancient India while it remained static with monotheism in other parts of the world. When the polytheistic Vedic religion arrived with Aryan migration to India, they found the ancient version of Jainism, which may have been practised over four thousand years as evidenced by some figures in meditation posture found in Mohenjo daro. By that time the indigenous religion had already abandoned the creator god or gods but still believed the mind as a permanent entity athman that survived death and continued in a cycle of reincarnation (samsara) due to results of any harmful action (kamma) even unintended performed in life collected in the athman. Salvation to a happy all-knowing permanent state named Kevala could be attained by the athman with extreme degree of self-mortification to destroy the past kamma attached to it, refraining from new kamma and developing the mind by meditation. As observed in progression from Veda to Upanishads the Aryan religion, evolution progressed with adoption of kamma, the cyclic existence of samsara, meditation and ethical behaviour in addition to prayer and sacrifice they practised for moksha.
The Buddha appeared in this philosophical atmosphere and denied both creator god and a permanent entity of athman. His psychology describes human behaviour based on the mind as a stream of changing consciousness. However, he accepted the cyclic existence of samsara; he said he verified the survival of consciousness at death with help of knowledge he gained from meditation. He prescribed a middle path to attain nirvana, a permanent state of happiness, avoiding self-mortification and redefined kamma to intentional activity only, both ethical and unethical resulting in bad and good results. He disagreed with the idea of kamma as the cause of rebirth. Following the Buddha, Vedantha religion reformed god to universal athman or brahman and evolved to modern Hinduism with a mixture of polytheism.
In his description of living beings in the universe, the Buddha has described some with a body made of fine material (brahma beings) in comparison to the gross material body of human and animal beings. One may assume the brahma body may not be carbon based.
The Buddha has also described living beings with physical body only (asannasatta) and another variety with mind only without a body (arupa satta). Therefore, it is not surprising to Buddhists that AI may evolve to become living beings if it develops a readily and freely available mobile source of energy and takes over the world with its superior capacity. AI already has information about Buddhist psychology. With that knowledge ‘AI beings’ may even become Buddhists not given to rituals.
According to the Buddha, brahma beings and asannasatta beings have very long lifespans as their bodies are not subject to decay and illness human beings develop. The new AI beings also may live as long as they wish because they may be able to repair themselves in case of developing physical defects. They would need only ethical behaviour to avoid destroying themselves by peaceful existence if they took over the world, as feared in some quarters.
However, as long as human beings exist in the world with death and uncertainty of what happens after death, they need a religion and rituals to give them psychological support. Even those who profess death is the end of life may have some doubt troubling their mind from time to time and may think of religion in times of adversity.
Ideally, human beings are free to accept one of the many versions of religious philosophies and respect each other’s choice and live in harmony. Unfortunately, extreme degrees of religious versions that cause division, unrest and violence will always continue to exist together with religions in the world.
Upali Abeysiri
Opinion
The Cream of the Earth: Why Sri Lanka needs a Fruit Consumers Movement
By Lalin I De Silva
Sri Lanka speaks constantly about hospitals, medicines, food imports, agricultural productivity and the rising cost of living. Yet there is one simple question we rarely ask:
Are we eating enough of the food that our own soil can naturally give us?
Fruit is perhaps one of the finest gifts of the earth to humankind. A ripe mango, banana, papaya, guava or avocado comes to us almost ready to eat. Sunlight, rain, soil, microorganisms, minerals and the labour of a farmer have already done most of the work.
That is why I like to describe fruit as the “cream of the earth.”
This is, of course, not an argument that fruit alone can prevent every disease, or guarantee longevity. Science does not support such exaggerated claims. But there is strong international evidence that regular consumption of fruits and vegetables forms an important part of a healthy diet and is associated with lower risks of several major non-communicable diseases.
Sri Lanka’s own dietary guidance encourages the daily consumption of fruit as part of a balanced diet.
The tragedy is that we live on an island capable of producing an extraordinary variety of fruits, while many families increasingly depend on highly processed foods, sugary drinks and imported snacks.
This deserves national attention.
We Produce — But Do We Connect?
Sri Lanka grows banana, mango, pineapple, papaya, avocado, rambutan, mangosteen, guava, woodapple, beli, pomegranate, durian and many lesser-known indigenous fruits.
Yet our fruit value chain remains fragmented.
The farmer often does not know the final consumer.
The consumer rarely knows the farmer.
Fruit travels through several intermediaries, sometimes suffering poor handling, unnecessary damage and price escalation along the way.
Consumers may not know where a fruit was grown, when it was harvested, whether it was naturally matured or what crop-protection practices were followed.
Meanwhile, a careful farmer, producing exceptional fruit, may receive almost the same farm-gate price as someone producing an inferior product.
That is not value-chain management.
It is precisely this disconnect that a new citizen-led initiative could begin to address.
25 Districts — 25 Consumer Societies
A proposal now emerging is to establish a Pure Sri Lankan Authentic Healthy Fruit Consumers Society in each of Sri Lanka’s 25 districts.
The concept should not become another organisation full of titles, meetings and ceremonial functions.
Its purpose must be practical.
Each district society could bring together consumers, growers, doctors, nutritionists, horticulturists, schools, universities, retailers, hotels, processors and young entrepreneurs.
The first task would be to understand the district itself.
What fruits are grown?
Where are they grown?
When are they available?
Which traditional varieties are disappearing?
Where can consumers purchase genuinely good fruits?
Where are the post-harvest losses?
What do farmers need?
What do consumers actually want?
From this information, each district could eventually develop its own Fruit Map.
Twenty-five district maps could then become a National Fruit Map of Sri Lanka.
From Anonymous Fruit to Traceable Fruit
Imagine buying a mango and scanning a QR code.
You could see the district, grower, variety, approximate harvest date and production information.
You could perhaps even provide feedback on taste.
That may sound futuristic, but the technology already exists.
The problem is not technology.
The problem is that our food system was never designed to connect the person who grows the fruit with the person who eats it.
Traceability could change that.
The principle is simple:
Know your farmer. Know your fruit.
Let the Consumer Lead
For decades, agriculture has largely been driven from the production side.
“How much can we produce?” has been the dominant question.
A healthier agricultural economy should begin with another question:
What does the consumer need, value and trust?
If thousands of consumers deliberately demand fresh, safe, flavorful and traceable Sri Lankan fruit, the message travels backwards through the entire value chain.
Retailers respond.
Farmers respond.
Nurseries respond.
Researchers respond.
Investors respond.
Government eventually has to respond.
That is the real power of an organised consumer movement.
Start With Children
Perhaps the most powerful campaign message could be remarkably simple:
Two Fruits a Day.
Imagine a Sri Lankan child coming home from school and asking:
“What are our fruits today?”
Imagine every school having a small fruit garden.
Imagine children being able to identify 10 Sri Lankan fruits, understand their seasons and know where they are grown.
Such behavioral change cannot be achieved merely by issuing circulars from Colombo.
It must become part of family culture.
Kandy Could Begin
Kandy would be a logical district in which to pilot the concept.
Its climatic diversity, surrounding agricultural communities, educational institutions, hotels, markets and strong plantation heritage provide an excellent testing ground.
A successful Kandy model could then be adapted—not blindly copied—across the other 24 districts.
The objective should ultimately be much larger than selling more fruit.
It is about reconnecting soil, farmer, food, consumer and health.
Sri Lanka does not need to invent every solution from outside.
Sometimes the answer may already be hanging from a tree beside us.
We simply have to recognise its value.
Know Your Farmer. Know Your Fruit. Live Well.
Opinion
‘Outpost of Empire’
Review
by Colleen Figg, Editor
and Reviewer – Amazon, New Voices Publishing
“Fernando echoes Macbeth with the line, “There is judgment here.” It captures the question running through the novel: can anyone participate in corruption and remain untouched by it? Beneath this satire is a dark story about power and the danger of believing, that someone else will always pay the price.”
Shavindra Fernando’s Outpost of Empire is a political novel set in the fictional country of Lackadasia. At its heart is a strong idea: an exploration of world politics, terrorism and the ways in which powerful countries manipulate smaller ones. Fernando is clearly writing about political issues that matter deeply to him.
The names immediately establish the book’s satirical character. Lackadasia, Burgherbugaria and the various Klowns suggest a world in which the people and places are exaggerated, but the issues beneath the exaggeration are recognisable. The playful language allows Fernando to approach terrorism, religious conflict and political corruption from an unusual angle.
Henry Stockwell is a central character: an ambassador who arrives in Lackadasia presenting himself as a friend of the country. He believes he understands how power works and treats the country, its politicians and its people as pawns on his personal chessboard. In his arrogance, he never doubts that he controls events rather than being controlled by them. This confidence makes him a compelling figure and in him, we explore the workings of political influence and the potential traps contained therein.
As the story develops, Fernando reveals a political world where causes are adopted when they are useful, people are exploited and discarded, and the truth becomes whatever those in power need it to be. Ordinary people suffer the consequences of decisions made far beyond their reach or knowledge, while those making those decisions continue to justify their actions. Even the people who help keep this world running may not be as important or as safe as they imagine.
Stockwell brings this idea into focus. He recognises corruption in others and willingly takes part in it himself, yet he cannot see that he might also suffer its consequences. Ultimately, he thinks his position will keep him safe. He is intelligent enough to understand the game, but not insightful enough to grasp the limits of his place within it. This blindness gives the novel a strong sense of irony.
The satirical approach gives Fernando room to criticise political hypocrisy without turning the novel into a direct political argument. By using fictional countries and exaggerated names, he creates some distance from specific governments and events while still making the larger targets of the book clear. The humour does not take away from the seriousness of the subject; instead, it makes the cruelty and self-interest beneath the political performance stand out more sharply.
Near the end, Fernando echoes Macbeth with the line, “There is judgment here.” It captures the question running through the novel: can anyone participate in corruption and remain untouched by it? Beneath this satire is a dark story about power and the danger of believing that someone else will always pay the price.
I came away feeling that Outpost of Empire is a valuable and thought-provoking book, particularly in today’s political and social climate. It has a distinctive voice, and the questions it raises about power, responsibility and foreign interference remain relevant far beyond the fictional borders of Lackadasia.
About the Author
Shavindra Fernando has worked as a reporter. He read English & Classics at the University of Peradeniya in Sri Lanka, and took International Relations & Ethnic Politics as a Reuter Fellow at the University of Oxford in England. The Vague Poetess (1999)was his first novel.
-
News6 days agoNDB fraud Rs 60mn more than reported
-
News6 days agoRemoving monk’s robes matter for Sangha to decide: Mahanayake Theras
-
News4 days agoSri Lanka escalates anti-graft drive with Shiranthi’s jailing
-
News5 days agoNPP govt. reminded of its responsibilities as US warship leaves Colombo
-
Latest News5 days agoFarhan, Sadaqat help Pakistan ace 183 chase to go 1-0 up
-
News6 days agoBHC, Colombo: “LTTE remains a proscribed org. in the UK”
-
Latest News3 days agoFarhan and Sadaqat help Pakistan seal series in style
-
News4 days agoIranian ships stranded, Lanka fears US sanctions
