Business
Middle East Conflict: The impact on migration and remittances in Sri Lanka
With the ongoing conflict in the Middle East (ME), Sri Lanka finds itself at a particularly vulnerable juncture as it carefully navigates a fragile economic recovery. Labour migration offers jobs to counteract the lack of opportunities within the economy. Related micro-level remittances prevent households from dipping back into poverty. Similarly, on a macro level, these remittances, of which about 50% come from ME countries, help build foreign reserves, stabilise the economy, and pay for much-needed imports. This blog unpacks some short- to medium-term consequences for migrant workers, highlighting what these attacks and related developments mean for the Sri Lankan economy.
Cancelled Flights and Migrant Departures
Sri Lankan migrant departures to Iran have been negligible in recent years. However, a far larger number of Sri Lankan workers in other Gulf destinations have been affected by the conflict. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, which reported, respectively, 52,067 and 46,693 Sri Lankan migrant departures in 2024, came under attack on 2 March 2026 and 7 March 2026.
Recent departure statistics show that of the 862 Sri Lankans who depart daily for foreign employment through official channels, 666 head to the ME. Additionally, an unknown number depart outside official channels. The large number of flight cancellations indicates that many could not take up or return to their jobs in the Gulf on time. Moreover, growing concerns about the war discourage new migrants from travelling to the ME for employment, while emerging repatriation efforts by other countries and the risk of a prolonged conflict are influencing those already there to return home. There is also a concern that employers may scale back recruitment or suspend existing projects that rely on migrant workers if the conflict continues. These contribute to reducing the stock of Sri Lankan migrant workers in the ME in the short run and weakening potential remittances to Sri Lanka during this critical period of transitioning from economic recovery to stabilisation.
If the conflict continues and the above concerns materialise, preventing Sri Lankans from taking up new jobs in the ME and the extension of expiring contracts, approximately 19,980 foreign employment opportunities would be lost in a month. If those affected look for but do not find jobs in Sri Lanka, the decline in migration could translate to a 5% increase in the stock of unemployed individuals, relative to the third quarter of 2025. Assuming an average contract length of 2.5 years and that 85% of the total 310,915 departures in 2025 went to the ME, the stock of Sri Lankan migrant workers in the region is roughly 660,000. (This number of migrant workers is lower than recent estimates of 1,007,855 Sri Lankans in the ME, as the latter figure includes both workers and other Sri Lankan nationals.) Given that about half of Sri Lanka’s remittances originate from the ME, this implies an average monthly remittance of roughly USD 509 per worker. At the current exchange rate of LKR 311 per USD, the decrease in monthly income in affected households in Sri Lanka is over LKR 150,000. The related drop in consumption can increase risks of poverty and vulnerability with negative implications for human capital development, affecting long-term growth.
Remittances
Despite significant efforts to diversify, Sri Lanka continues to be over-reliant on the ME for remittances. This over-reliance on a highly volatile region further heightens Sri Lanka’s already high vulnerability to remittance shocks. If the ongoing conflict disrupts access to formal remittance channels, i.e., with the disruption of internet connectivity or loss of access credentials/devices during evacuations, there is a growing risk of migrants shifting to informal channels, as was evident in Sri Lanka during the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis in Sri Lanka. Remittances sent through informal channels bypass the Central Bank and balance of payment records, reducing migrant workers’ contribution to recorded foreign exchange reserves used, for example, for imports or debt repayment. In February 2026, the formal monthly remittances of USD 729 Mn covered more than the increase in foreign reserve assets of USD 452 Mn or the previous month’s imported consumer goods bill (USD 475 Mn).
Navigating Implications
As such, the conflict, weaker employer capacity in the ME, and disruptions to flights, employment, and economic activity can translate into risks for Sri Lanka through declines in the stock and flow of migrants and remittances. Similarly, the uptick in informal remittances could challenge the stability of Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves. The combined effect implies that the ME conflict could lead to concerning implications for foreign exchange reserves, import capacity, unemployment, consumer demand, poverty, and vulnerability. These implications contribute to slowing the economic recovery process in Sri Lanka.
To address the potential threats, Sri Lanka can adopt a few strategies.
To ensure consistent income and remittances, the Sri Lankan foreign missions in the ME can play an important role by reaching out to large-scale employers to reaffirm contractual obligations for wages. Similarly, the missions can explore available social protection measures, such as insurance, wage protection mechanisms, and compensation to migrant workers. Moreover, the Sri Lanka Bureau of Foreign Employment (SLBFE) can increase awareness of available unilateral social protection mechanisms in Sri Lanka, such as insurance schemes, to help migrants weather any immediate income gap. Additionally, the SLBFE can introduce programmes to ensure that those who would have been deployed retain their skills for redeployment or are redirected to reskilling and upskilling activities, providing appropriate certifications.
Sri Lanka should also prepare for large scale repatriation, should the need arise. Learning from experience during the COVID-19 pandemic, a starting point would be the reactivation of the Contact Sri Lanka portal for the government to connect with Sri Lankans in the ME. Initially, this portal could be used as a mechanism to assess the sentiment among overseas Sri Lankans about their safety and need to return and prepare for large-scale socioeconomic reintegration. If repatriation does take place, Sri Lanka ought to take measures to ensure that returning migrant workers have received their service letters and other such credentials, as well as payments and benefits.
To minimise the risk of remittance diversion to informal channels, the formal remittance channels in Sri Lanka can offer timely and attractive incentives such as competitive exchange rates and waiving or reducing transaction fees associated with formal remittances from the ME. At the same time, Sri Lanka should urgently finalise the initial steps taken to further diversify destination countries of migrant workers, such as Thailand, Italy, Romania, and Germany, minimising the risk of over-reliance on ME remittances.
by Dr. Bilesha Weeraratne, Research Fellow, Institute of Policy Studies,Sri Lanka
Business
Development deficit getting in the way of SL joining RCEP – Trade Ministry Secretary
Sri Lanka is not quite ready to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), since it is lacking sufficient development, Trade Ministry Secretary K.A. Vimalenthirarajah said.
‘At present the Trade Ministry is establishing Sri Lanka’s readiness to join RCEP, which consists of 15 countries, through several channels, Vimalenthirarajah said at a recent round table discussion titled, ‘Sri Lanka’s Pathway to RCEP and the Emerging Global Trading Order’, organized by the Pathfinder Foundation and held at the Colombo Club, Taj Samudra.
‘Sri Lanka is actively accelerating its compliance efforts to join the 15-nation RCEP having submitted its required accession questionnaire in early 2026, he explained.
Vimalenthirarajah added: ‘The Cabinet has established a high-level policy and working committee and also obtained some technical assistance from multilateral partners because complying with RCEP requirements is challenging. Subsequently, this body responded to the follow-up questions that came up and had discussions with RCEP representatives and it expects more follow-up questions with regard to Sri Lanka’s readiness to join RCEP.
‘Sri Lanka has also secured political and diplomatic support from current RCEP members, including Australia, New Zealand, and Indonesia, to facilitate its entry process.’
Meanwhile, state officials, including Industries and Entrepreneurship Development Deputy Minister Chathuranga Abeysinghe, are implementing key economic structural reforms, a new tariff policy, and transparent investment criteria required by the bloc. Because formal accession protocols for RCEP are still being finalized, Sri Lanka is also simultaneously negotiating bilateral trade and investment agreements with regional members to accelerate integration.
Abeysinghe, participating virtually in the event said that Sri Lanka cannot achieve sustained export growth and attract large-scale investment by relying solely on its domestic market. ‘As a small economy, the country’s future lies in deeper integration with regional and global value chains. RCEP connects 15 economies, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, China and ASEAN member states, collectively accounting for nearly 30% of global trade, he explained.
Abeysinghe added: ‘Access to such a market would create new opportunities for Sri Lankan businesses, particularly the country’s Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which currently contribute only around 10 percent to national exports.
‘However, Sri Lanka is at least a decade behind in implementing many of the reforms required to fully participate in modern global trade. Recognizing this challenge, the government is now moving forward with several critical reforms: A new tariff policy to improve competitiveness and eliminate barriers to trade, transparent and predictable investment criteria, investment facilitation reforms to improve the ease of doing business, new legislation including the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Act and SOE reforms to strengthen investor confidence and measures to improve investment protection and unlock new sources of capital, including venture capital and angel investment funds.
‘Sri Lanka’s exports currently stand at approximately US$ 17 billion and have grown only gradually over the years. Expanding market access through bilateral and multilateral agreements, while continuing domestic reforms, is essential if the country is to achieve its long-term economic ambitions.’
By Hiran H Senewiratne
Business
Pussalla Agri Ventures secures EU, USDA organic certs, paving way for high-value exports
In a landmark development for Sri Lanka’s organic spice sector, Pussalla Agri Ventures has been awarded both EU Organic and USDA Organic certifications for its premium Ceylon cinnamon products. The certifications were officially conferred at Control Union Sri Lanka, signaling a major milestone in the company’s strategic transformation toward fully certified organic operations.
The recognition strengthens Pussalla Agri Ventures’ position as an emerging exporter of certified organic products, with its flagship offering, organic Ceylon cinnamon (Cinnamomum verum, also known as Cinnamomum zeylanicum), cultivated in Sri Lanka’s traditional cinnamon-growing regions.
Notably, the dual certification opens doors to some of the world’s most lucrative and compliance-driven organic markets, including the European Union and the United States.
Pussalla Agri Ventures began its structured transition into organic cinnamon cultivation several years ago, building a fully integrated system covering cultivation, processing, and value addition. The company currently manages extensive cinnamon cultivation lands and operates under strict organic agricultural principles, ensuring compliance with global certification standards.
These certifications, issued through Control Union Sri Lanka, validate that the company’s farming and processing systems meet rigorous international requirements, including restrictions on synthetic chemicals, comprehensive traceability controls, and environmental sustainability practices. These certifications add to an existing portfolio that already includes SL GAP, Food GMP, and Cosmetic GMP certifications.
Company representatives described the achievement as a “milestone” in the Pussalla organic journey, one that paves the way for expanded access to premium export markets in Europe and the United States. According to them, the certifications are expected to enhance buyer confidence, particularly among health-conscious consumers and clean-label food brands.
Pussalla Agri Ventures emphasised that its organic cinnamon is sourced entirely from its own cultivated estates.
“This estate-to-exporter integration ensures full control over quality, traceability, and processing integrity. The company’s model allows cinnamon to be harvested, processed, and packed under continuously monitored conditions, maintaining strict alignment with international organic standards,” they noted.
Speaking further they said:
“Sri Lanka supplies the majority of the world’s True Ceylon Cinnamon, a spice prized for its delicate aroma, low coumarin levels, and reputed medicinal properties. The growing global demand for certified organic spices has created new opportunities for local producers who meet international compliance standards. Pussalla Agri Ventures’ certification achievement places it among a select group of Sri Lankan exporters adopting globally recognised organic systems, thereby enhancing the country’s reputation in high-value spice markets.”
“As organic food sales continue to rise in North America and Europe, certifications such as these are becoming essential rather than optional. For Pussalla Agri Ventures, the journey from conventional to certified organic is not merely a compliance exercise but a strategic repositioning aimed at long-term sustainability and premium pricing power.”
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
NCCSL to host seminar on data protection & privacy
The National Chamber of Commerce of Sri Lanka (NCCSL) will host a timely and insightful seminar titled “Data Protection & Privacy: Safeguarding Businesses in the Digital Era” on 18th June 2026, from 9.00 a.m. to 12.30 p.m., at the National Chamber of Commerce Auditorium, Colombo 10 with the objective of enhancing awareness among businesses on emerging cyber risks, data protection requirements, and digital security best practices.
As organizations increasingly rely on digital platforms, online transactions, cloud-based systems, and data-driven operations, protecting sensitive information and ensuring privacy compliance have become critical priorities for organizations of all sizes. The seminar aims to provide practical knowledge and strategic guidance to help businesses strengthen resilience against cyber threats while fostering trust and confidence among customers and stakeholders.
Interested parties are encouraged to register by contacting Udula – 0714034775/ 0114741788 | udula.nccsl@gmail.com or Nishanthi – 0762555707 | nishanthi@nationalchamber.lk
-
News4 days agoCIABOC summons Yoshitha over his participation in British Navy training programme
-
News6 days agoLocal firms move millions of dollars overseas for phantom imports: Govt.
-
Midweek Review6 days agoJuly 09: An inexcusable overall security failure and exceptional contingency plan
-
News6 days agoAI raises concerns over arrest of Sallay and rapper under PTA
-
News3 days agoCommonwealth lawyers urge Lanka to uphold rule of law
-
Features2 days agoPolitics of protected species
-
Sports1 day agoTharanga set for high-profile javelin clash in Ostrava
-
News4 days agoJustice Minister responds to social media claims he represented Easter Sunday ringleader
