A WELL-MEANING, ELDERLY 81-YEAR-OLD MAN OR A 77-YEAR-OLD CONVICTED RAPIST FACING 91 FELONIES?

by Vijaya Chandrasoma

The presidential election in November pits the oldest man ever to contest the US presidency against the second oldest, who is also the only convicted rapist in history to run for president, as his challenger. They are breaking, in terms of senility and criminality, electoral records they themselves set in 2020!

A contest for the toughest job in the world between one decent but stumbling old man and an extraordinarily flawed human being, both on the cusp of dementia. A contest that 75% of the American electorate, Republicans, Democrats and Independents, do not want.

The overwhelming consensus today is that President Biden and former President Trump will contest the presidency in November. I am going out on a limb by predicting that the storyline of the 2024 presidential election would have changed completely after the Republican and Democratic National Committee Conventions in July and August, respectively. These Conventions ultimately decide the nominees for the presidency of their respective parties in November.

The final presidential slate ends up with the two nominees of the Republican and Democratic Parties, and a couple of independent or minor party candidates. According to the archaic rules of the Electoral College, none of these minor party and independent candidates have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning the presidency. No Third Party or Independent candidate has won any Electoral College votes or made a difference to the results of any previous presidential election.

This might change in November, 2024. The increasing popularity today of Third Party and Independent candidates, made possible entirely by the vulnerability of the nominees from the two main Parties, may enable them to act as “spoilers”.

One of these independent candidates, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. may win some Electoral College votes, if only because of his legendary name. Although the Kennedy family, which has already endorsed President Biden, has disowned RFK Jr. because of his criminal past involving heroin use and controversial political agenda. Aother independent candidate, Professor Cornell West, who represents the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, may also win some Electoral College votes.

If these two candidates can somehow sneak in even a few Electoral College votes, they could deny the nominees of the two major parties from getting to the magic number of 270 such votes necessary to win the presidency outright in November. Unlikely, but within the realms of possibility.

Then the fun would really start.

The original, archaic intent behind the Electoral College is best described by elections expert, William C. Kimberling.

“The function of the College of Electors in choosing the president can be likened to that in the Roman Catholic Church of the College of Cardinals selecting the Pope. The original idea was for the most knowledgeable and informed individuals from each state to select the president based solely on merit and without regard to state of origin or political party”.

The conditions of this electoral system were included in the US constitution in 1787, when there were 13 “colonies” in the United States, an era when only white men were allowed the vote. An antiquity which should have been discarded a long time ago, to be replaced by the popular vote, the electoral process used not only in every other election in the United States, but in every election throughout the democratic world.

In the event that no candidate gets at least 270 Electoral College votes, the process becomes even more weird. The election of the president will be decided by the House of Representatives, with each state delegation having one vote. A majority of 26 states will be needed to win. It must be noted that a state like California, with an ethnically diverse population of 40 million, and Wyoming, with a predominantly white population of 700,000, will each have one vote.

The Senate will elect the vice-president, with one vote for each Senator (again with the population anomalies in states like California and Wyoming). A majority of 51 Senate votes will win the vice-presidency.

This wafer-thin majority in the House got even thinner after Democrat, Thomas Suozzi, convincingly won the special election in New York’s Third District, to replace George Santos, last Tuesday. Santos was the Republican congressman who was expelled for committing 21 felonies (a mere bagatelle, compared to Trump’s whopping 91), and a personal resume laced with lies even more hallucinatory than Trump’s.

Again, sans any candidate gaining a majority, the presidency and the vice-presidency will be elected by the new chambers of Congress elected in the general election in November. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 33 Senate seats are up for grabs in that election, after which the composition of both chambers would have undergone significant changes.

Last week, Special Counsel, Robert Hur, appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland to investigate into the possibility of Biden misusing confidential documents during the period of his vice-presidency, concluded his report stating that, while there were no grounds to bring any criminal charges against President Biden, he was “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory”.

Biden and his staff were infuriated by this gratuitous description, an unprofessional opinion that had no relevance in an official report of a criminal investigation. Unfortunately, the press conference Biden held after the report was released changed the headline from his innocence of criminal charges against him and drew attention to the obvious fact of his age and poor memory, when he referred to Egyptian president Sisi as the President of Mexico!

The ravages of age fall gently in some, cruelly in others. Public perception is that Biden’s age is a disqualification, though the reality is that Trump’s mental processes are clearly unraveling and becoming more dangerous by the day.

When Biden decided to run in 2020, he said he would be acting as a “bridge”, which many Americans assumed meant that he would be a one-term president, who would bridge the gap between the criminal, authoritarian Trump administration to a return to normality and democracy. This he has achieved – in spades. But no one can deny that his physical and mental faculties have deteriorated, and will continue to so deteriorate. Especially if he is expected to perform the arduous functions of the presidency during a second term, which will end when he is 86 years old!

Much as I respect President Biden, I do hope he will retire with great honors before the Democratic National Convention in August. He will then pass the baton to the younger generation of leaders of the Democratic Party, who will be eminently capable of continuing the outstanding work he has done, and will also be strong enough to stave off the threat to democracy presented by Trump and the radical right wing of the Republican Party.

Trump faced three court decisions last week in his ongoing legal saga. The first was the Manhattan state hush money criminal case involving porn star Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal. Trump was charged with 34 counts related to the falsification of business records in a conspiracy to influence the 2016 election. An indictment which marked the first time in US history a former president was charged with a felony.

Judge Merchan of the New York District Court got straight to the point with a written ruling on Thursday: “Defendant’s motions to dismiss have been denied”, adding that the criminal trial will start on March 25, 2024.

Trump’s defiant objection after the ruling: “This is a case which will interfere with my election campaign to contest the presidency. Even if I am guilty, it’s not a crime”. In his unhinged mind, he is above the law.

The second was the Atlanta, Georgia election interference case, where Trump was accused, along with 18 co-defendants in an attempt to overturn the 2020 Georgia election loss to President Biden.

The Georgia judge had scheduled, also on Thursday, to discuss allegations by a Trump co-defendant that the Fulton County District Attorney, Fani Willis, and a top deputy had an improper romantic relationship and mishandled public funds, which would prejudice the final outcome of the election interference case.

The hearing is ongoing. The first day resulted in clashes involving District Attorney Willis and Trump’s counsel. The consensus was that the Judge will not disqualify D. A. Willis from prosecuting the case, because nothing that transpired at the hearing detracted from the actual charges of election interference against Trump and his co-defendants. But the victory would again belong to Trump, who would have achieved his main motive for bringing all these objections and counter-allegations, to distract and delay the cases against him till after the November election.

Trump was scheduled to face yet another, third judicial decision on Friday, February 16, in a case his guilt on financial fraud has already been established; the only decision would be the extent of damages he will be required to pay for his crimes. A number predicted at around $370 million, which, when added to the $85 million he was recently ordered to pay as damages for his sexual assault of E. Jean Carroll, could wipe out his already heavily collateralized business empire in New York. The bigger penalty will be that Trump will never again be allowed to do business in New York, and perhaps Trump Tower will soon be renamed the E. Jean Carroll Plaza!

Trump will have a full-time court schedule with trial dates in four jurisdictions and 91 felonies, which will leave him with little time to lie to his supporters at campaign rallies till the election in November.

Trump’s recent comments threatening to leave NATO and encouraging Russia “to do whatever the hell they want”, are in direct contravention of the founding principles of NATO, which specify that if one NATO member is attacked, it would be considered an act of aggression against all. This dangerously irresponsible statement is completely at odds with American security, and has caused anger and disgust in America, the majority of whose citizens recognize Putin’s Russia as the nation’s principal adversary.

This appalling statement has also angered America’s long-standing allies in NATO, who feel that Trump is giving Putin the license to invade other NATO member countries, which may hasten World War III.

Whatever the polls predict today, it is inconceivable that Americans, including moderate Republicans and independents, will vote for a criminal candidate who presents a clear and present danger to the rule of law and the democracy of the nation.

The November election will ultimately favor the leader of the political party who addresses the concerns of all American citizens. The Democrats have supporters espousing a wide variety of views, center right to progressive left, who are not afraid to voice their opinions, considered to be their prerogative by the Party.

On the other hand, the Republicans talk with just the one voice, the radical-right, Christian, white supremacist, authoritarian stance parroted by Trump-fearing supplicants. A voice that has always been all about Trump, never about the country, one that is getting exponentially unhinged and dictatorial with every passing tirade. Anyone who speaks against Trump’s dictatorial policies is immediately expelled, vilified and threatened.

In all these circumstances, it is by no means certain that the November 2024 presidential election will be, as everyone expects, a straight fight between these two flawed old men. One may retire gracefully, the other should be driven out in disgrace. Either or both of these events would present Americans with a much more vigorous and commonsense choice of leadership. A president whose prime concerns will be the preservation of democracy and the rule of law, and the welfare and security of the nation and the world.