In a telling remark about Indian cricket last year, Stephen Fleming had said: “Looking at the amount of talent that is on the show… I am very jealous.” The former New Zealand skipper was comparing the talent in India with the resources in New Zealand. He was reminded that New Zealand still constantly manage to beat India in global events. He just shrugged it off with a laugh.

It is no laughing matter, of course. The numbers speak for themselves. A 5-10 record in global tournaments, including a win in the World Test Championship (WTC) final, skews the balance heavily in the favour of the Black Caps. New Zealand also triumphed in the only face-off in this competition, back in the final of the ICC Knockout 2000. Sunday’s clash in the 2025 Champions Trophy will not affect qualification – both teams are already through – but it’ll decide which of these teams finish top of Group A and carry momentum with them into the knockouts.

There may be an underlying reason for New Zealand’s dominance despite the lack of resources. Without the pressure of constant competition, the Kiwis play with a sense of security – they don’t have to prove themselves every day to retain their spots, something KL Rahul touched upon ahead of the game. “There is – I won’t lie,” Rahul admitted, acknowledging the constant competition with Rishabh Pant, on Friday.

Mike Hesson, former coach of New Zealand, gave his take to Cricbuzz on the Black Caps hegemony. “Look, New Zealand players are really well-drilled, very well-coached. They all know their roles very clearly because there’s not a huge amount of competition. They all know that they’re not playing for their place every day. So they understand what’s required to win the game, and they play as a team. And I think that’s a huge advantage in tournament play.

“You don’t get overawed. And in terms of, you know, India’s superiority, obviously they’ve got a lot of talented players, but so do New Zealand… so I wouldn’t underestimate them. And as I said, the key part of the Black Caps’ success is understanding the role definitions and playing as a team on the field, obviously, throwing their body on the line in the field. So they’ve pretty much outfielded everybody, and I would imagine they’ll do the same in the semifinal.”

India, though, can count a victory in their last meeting on the world stage as a positive. They registered a convincing, comprehensive and clinical win in the semifinals of the 2023 World Cup in Mumbai where all in the current top order – Rohit Sharma, Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, and KL Rahul – fired. India will aim to repeat that imperious display on Sunday.

India may try to give some game time to those who haven’t played yet. Rohit batted for a long time on Friday night alleviating concerns of a hamstring niggle, yet it may not be a surprise if he decides to rest himself. Mohammed Shami, coming from a knee surgery, and Kuldeep Yadav could be given a break for Arshdeep Singh and Varun Chakaravarthy.

“I am sure there will be some temptation and we have been in these positions before where if there is an opportunity where you can try out the players who haven’t gotten games. They do get a game, but I don’t know if that will happen in a Champions Trophy,” Rahul said on Friday. He then added: “This is my version. I don’t know, it might be very different tomorrow.”

It is unlikely that it’ll be very different from what Rahul thinks.

India may opt to make a couple of changes, though it remains unclear whether they will rest skipper Rohit Sharma. The captain is nursing a hamstring injury, but he appeared to be fine on Friday night after batting for an extended period. Mohammed Shami could make way for Arshdeep Singh, with Varun Chakravarthy potentially coming in for Kuldeep Yadav.

The already-qualified Black Caps too will be tempted to give players carrying niggles a breather before the knockouts. That said, Daryl Mitchell, is fit again after missing the Bangladesh game with illness. Who he replaces in the XI will be a dilemma for Santner and Stead given the player who replaced Mitchell, Rachin Ravindra, hit a fine hundred. Incidentally, Ravindra, who was injured before his return against Bangladesh, was replaced by Will Young, who also has a century in this tournament

India Playing XI: Rohit Sharma (c), Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul (wk), Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Ravindra Jadeja, Harshit Rana, Arshdeep Singh, Varun Chakaravarthy

New Zealand Playing XI: Will Young, Devon Conway, Kane Williamson, Rachin Ravindra, Tom Latham (wk), Glenn Phillips, Michael Bracewell, Mitchell Santner (c), Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson, William O’Rourke.

[Cricbuzz]