Features
Improvements to Kelani Valley Railway – A response from a laymon

BY Dr Janaka Ratnasiri
This piece is written in response to a letter published by a former General Manager of Sri Lanka Railways (SLR) in The Island of 29.10.2020 under the heading “Improvements to Kelani Valley Railway”, highlighting a difference of opinion as to whether the stretch up to Homagama should be elevated or not.
PREVIOUS PROPOSALS FOR IMPROVING THE KV RAILWAY
In response to an Island Editorial titled “Ailing Railways” which appeared on 02.12.2015, the writer wrote a piece proposing a solution to ailing railways which was published in The Island of 08.12.2015. This piece may be accessed via: http://archive.island.lk/index.php?page_cat=news-section&page=news-section&code_title=49. In the Budget for 2016, the government has allocated a sum of LKR 1.5 billion to modernize the Kelani Valley (KV) railway line. The writer proposed that once the KV line is modernized, it could be leased to a private party to provide an upgraded railway service as a public-private venture.
He also said in this piece that “With the increase of frequency of trains, one problem one could envisage is the congestion that could be created due to frequent closure of railway crossings. The solution for this is to build fly-overs at every point where a major highway crosses a railway line. The government could get the assistance of the private sector here too by getting them to build metal flyovers similar to what has been erected at Nugegoda and Dehiwala. They have to just copy what is installed”. However, there was no news that any action was taken to spend this money for improving the KV line.
BROADGUAGING THE KV RAILWAY LINE
In the writer’s piece referred to above, he said that “A few decades ago, the narrow gauge of KV line was broadened to the standard gauge at Sri Lankan Government expense but the service was not improved concurrently. Only the dilapidated aged coaches and power sets operate on this line which run infrequently. According to the railway schedules posted in the Railway Dept. (RD) website, only four trains operate from Avissawella to Fort daily, three in the morning and one in the afternoon, while five trains operate from Fort to Avissawella, three in the morning and two in the evening. It takes about two and half hours to cover the distance of 61 km, which is running at an average speed of 24 km/h.
At such operating conditions, it is not surprising that most passengers, except those travelling on cheap government season tickets, prefer to travel by bus despite they are crowded and the service is poor. The High Level Road (HLR) is almost saturated with buses and there is no room to increase their number plying on this road, without slowing down the existing traffic further. Hence, shifting of bus commuters to railway is necessary. However, even after any modernization of the track envisaged after spending the allocated Rs. 1.5 billion, there is no guarantee that the KV line will be provided with additional rolling stock and a better service to the commuters”. This situation has not improved during the last five years.
CURRENT PROJECT FOR IMPROVING RAILWAYS
Sri Lanka sought a loan from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in 2016 for assistance to modernize the Colombo Suburban Railways covering stretches from Colombo up to Rambukkana, Kalutara, Negombo and Awissavella. The ADB agreed to lend USD 160 million on concessionary terms and the agreement was signed in July 2016 to undertake feasibility studies and detailed design of the system.
Already a sum of USD 10 million has been mobilized for preliminary work. The segment on the KV line included rehabilitation, capacity upgrade, modernization, and electrification of the KV line between Maradana and Padukka with double tracks in this section. After studying several options, it has been decided to have the section of 20 km from Maradana to Malapalla elevated. The section between Padukka and Avissawella will remain as a single track, following mostly the existing track. (See https://www.csrp.lk/kelani_vallay_line.php?id=3)
Under this programme, the design of infrastructure including railway stations, tracks and other facilities including electrification and communications are underway according to a video clip available in the above site. The preparation of detailed designs and bid documents are expected to be completed in December 2020. A copy of the final feasibility report of the project is available on https://www.csrp.lk/backend/documents/Kelani%20Valley%20Railway%20Final%20Feasibility%20Study%20Report%20-%202019-04-11.pdf.
Further, a detailed socio-economic survey has been conducted to identify affected families living on railway reservation land between Maligawatte and Malapalla and their resettlement is planned including construction of multi-story housing for them, both in Colombo and in Malapalla. The Cabinet approval was granted for the project on 17.10.2017 and to set apart houses built by the Urban Development Authority to resettle the families encroaching the lands to be used for the development of the KV Railway Line.
PROPOSED OPERATION OF THE NEW SYSTEM
According to the above feasibility report, electric multiple units (EMU) will operate during peak hours at seven minutes intervals between Maradana and Makumbura North (a new station) and at 14 minutes intervals between Makumbura North and Padukka. Diesel multiple units (DMU) will operate at 30 min intervals between Padukka and Avissawella until such time this section is electrified. The travel time from Padukka to Maradana during peak hours is estimated to be 64 minutes with stopping at all stations.
Each coach could accommodate 200 passengers, but only 40 seating capacity will be provided in each coach. Seats are fitted longitudinally leaving more room for standing passengers. Each EMU will comprise 10 or 12 coaches, with capacity of 2,000 and 2,400 passengers respectively. So, most passengers will have to keep standing during their entire travel. There is provision to operate express trains with stops only at a few major stations.
For the regular traveler, a more desirable option is to have a combination of coaches with longitudinal seats and transverse seats. With the latter, seating capacity will be increased but overall capacity reduced. The coaches with transverse seats could be offered at a higher fare in a different class. Passengers may not mind paying extra fare if they are assured seating for over an hour-long ride from Padukka to Maradana.
The EMUs will be powered by electricity supplied through an overhead catenary system (OCS) operating at 25 kV connected by a pantograph to the coaches using rails as the return path. The project proposes to feed power to the OCS system from the 132 kV grid substations at Pannipitiya and Kosgama. During day time, the national grid has adequate capacity to feed the EMU operations. However, one risk factor is the unexpected power failures in the national grid encountered occasionally, in which event the EMUs will get stranded until power is restored. Perhaps the CEB may be asked to give priority to these two GSSs when restoring power.
IMPROVEMENTS TO THE TRACK UP TO AVISSAWELLA
The original KV line was built mostly following the contour of the highlands and hence comprised many bends with short radius of curvature. This is unlike the HLR built in late forties by American contractors which was mostly a cut and fill exercise. If one examines the present trace of the KV line up to Makumbura, there are several places where the track could be straightened. According to the Final Feasibility Report, the curves at many of the places seem to have been straightened or curves realigned with larger radii of curvature.
In addition, straightening the stretch between Hokandara Road crossing and Athurugiriya Road crossing will avoid several bends and reduce the distance from 1.83 km to 1.56 km. Further straightening the stretch between the Malabe Road crossing and Makumbura will reduce the distance from 1.56 km to 0.85 km, resulting in an overall reduction of about one km distance.
The stretch between Padukka and Avissawella is supposed to follow the existing track. The railway line between Kosgama and Avissawella crosses the A4 highway at four places. Since it is expected to run trains at 30 min intervals during peak time in this stretch in one direction or at every 15 min if both directions are considered, there will be congestion on the highway unless fly overs are built at these crossings. Alternatively, the track could be re-laid to avoid the crossings altogether.
There is also the ambiguity with regard to the section to be elevated. The Final Feasibility Report says it is up to Kottawa in some places and as Makumbura North in other places. The project website gives it as Malapalla. The former GM says that the railway line to be elevated is up to Homagama.
OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE OF THE NEW LINE
Once the new system is built by the foreign contractors, it has to be operated and managed by a competent organization. Being the owner of the project, SLR may want to do that, particularly because all trains operating in Sri Lanka are required to be driven and guarded by SLR staff according to the law. However, the question is are they the most suitable for the job? The archaic rules and regulations, the attitude of staff, lack of interest in passenger care, low level of maintenance and neglect of existing tracks, dominance of trade unions in operative matters would necessitate the government to rethink on who should be entrusted with the task of operating and managing the new system.
The SLR is dominated by Mechanical Engineers. Their inability to operate and maintain electronically controlled trains was amply demonstrated in the case of the 10 Locomotives from Alstom of France imported in 2000. After a short spell of operation, they developed various problems and efforts made to get them attended to by the manufacturers were not successful. Though the manufacturer trained the SLR staff in maintenance and gave them maintenance kits, it was reported that they did not have the background knowledge to assimilate the training given and as a result most of the locomotives had to be taken off service (Ceylon Today, 08.02.2014). Although SLR found these locomotives unsuitable here, India entered into a contract with Alstom to manufacture 800 locomotives in India, delivering 100 units annually.
It is therefore imperative that the new train system be leased to a private party to operate jointly with SLR drivers and guards, and the private party given the full responsibility for its operation and management including maintenance. The private party could be even a foreign company having the experience in managing similar railway systems in their own countries. This could be tried out at least initially until such time a local company staff are trained and ready to take over.
PLANS FOE FUTURE EXTENSION OF KV LINE
The former GM speaks about “the new infrastructure provided should be able to be utilized for any future extensions beyond Avissawella”. The website of the Colombo Suburban Railway Project (https://www.csrp.lk/about-us.php) has described several new railway lines to be built in the foreseeable future. One is the construction of a railway line from Kurunegala to Habarana via Dambulla, a distance of 81 km, for which the Feasibility Study has been completed. Another is the extension of KV line from Padukka to Nonagama via Ingiriya, Ratnapura and Embilipitiya to link with the Southern railway line. It is noteworthy that this trace bypasses Avissawella.
The KV line was first built from Colombo to Yatiyantota via Avissawella during 1900–1902 to serve the plantation community in Sabaragamuwa. It was branched off at Avissawella and extended up to Opanayaka via Ratnapura in 1912 (Wikipedia). Hence, today there is no necessity to retrace the old track to Ratnapura via Avissawella when there is a shorter route available via Ingiriya.
Furthermore, this stretch is heavily encroached and it will be a difficult task to claim it back. Even the Ruwanpura Expressway is planned to traverse via Ingiriya to Ratnapura. However, such investment on building new tracks is justified only if investments are made to acquire the necessary rolling stock to maintain a regular service.
FUNDING OF THE PROJECT
The project feasibility report gives the estimated investment required for the project as USD 1,424 million (M) comprising USD 700 M for track construction, USD 250 M for rolling stock, and USD 300 M for other infrastructure development and feasibility studies. Financial analysis of the project shows that project cash flows are not sufficient to fully recover the investment cost of USD 1.42 billion or LKR 263 billion.
According to the feasibility report, even though the Project cash flows are not sufficient to fully recover the total investment and associated cost of funding, it could recover approximately 21% of the investment cost and related cost of funding under 30-year analysis and it can go up to 27% with 50-year financial evaluation. Recovering the rest of the investment costs and paying the related cost of funding could not be made with project cash flows generated thus the government needs budgetary allocation from common public funds for the same which is the usual case with public sector railway projects in many countries.
On the other hand, the project operational and maintenance costs and replacement costs can easily be recovered with railway tickets and other income of the KV line. Accordingly, the project does not require government subsidies for meeting operating costs. It is also expected to generate wide economic, environmental and social benefits which cannot be monetized directly. It is therefore envisaged that funding could be raised through loans from commercial financial institutions and multilateral agencies in addition to government contributions.
RESERVATIONS EXPRESSED AGAINST THE PROJECT
Some independent consultants, including the former GM, are now questioning the desirability of elevating of the stretch from Maradana to Malapalla. It is surprising why these professionals are now making objections for elevating the track up to Malapalla at this late stage. He seems to be concerned about the high cost of the project, “the return on investment, and the impact of the solution to the country as a whole, in relation to financing of foreign loans”.
The former GM says “I believe there were two main excuses to recommend elevation; one was the acquisition of land or let me mention in a more prudent way, it is relocation of encroachments presently occupying railway land, and the second is the number of level crossings presently at-grade”. He goes to great length explaining how level crossings could be built economically in the event the tracks are laid on the surface including building fly overs and under passes quoting practices in other countries.
One excuse he gives against elevated line is that elevation “requires the provision of escalators and elevators for stations in the elevated sections required to be maintained, and in case they are not maintained, the general public will suffer when they have to climb 7m (the height of two floors of a building) to the station platform”. Escalators are used world over for mass transport of people between different elevations, though the former Railways GM thought they are not good enough for Sri Lanka. That may be the reason why none of our railway stations have any escalators installed.
Some experts are of the view that the electrification of sections on the main and coastal lines should have been given priority rather than developing the KV line. See http://www.themorning.lk/railway-project-on-hold-rs-40-b-dent-on-state-coffers/. The lobby against the project is so strong that they were trying to influence the ADB which certainly does not sound ethical for professionals. A more appropriate course of action would have been to get it sorted out internally (http://www.themorning.lk/after-jica-govt-removes-adb/). It appears that these moves have resulted in getting the project stalled.
CONCLUSION
A loan of USD 160 million from the ADB has enabled the SLR to study modernization of its suburban railway lines including their electrification which has been long overdue. Under this project the KV line up to Makumbura North will be elevated, with double tracks up to Padukka. The track beyond Padukka up to Avissawella will remain single track without electrification but with improvements. Detailed designs are being carried out including resettlement of displaced families. It is expected that the project will be implemented soon despite objections raised by some professionals on frivolous grounds.
It is also important to hand over the operation and management of the new railway to an experienced and competent party until such time the local personnel are trained and ready to take over. With objections raised against the project by certain quarters, it is sincerely hoped that the government will not abort the project, the way the Light Rail Transit project was aborted recently. It is expected the government will be able to secure funding for the project through offers made by foreign ambassadors from friendly countries and various visiting foreign dignitaries for assistance to develop the country.
Features
Tree planting along road reservations and banks of streams

Reservations of Roads & Natural Streams which extend to about 10 to 20 on either side are not actively protected in Sri Lanka though it is very common in other countries. Those reservations are owned by the government. Therefore, public use of this land can be considered as a fair use of the land. Main purpose of this proposal is to introduce an intervention to connect the Forest Patches in urban areas such as Gampaha using the reservations of roads and natural streams, by planting trees so that those strips could also act as Urban Bio Corridors while enhancing the tree cover at national level. These trees also absorb the fumes emitted by vehicles while addressing global warming caused due to lack of tree cover. It also serves as a roof top for pedestrians who use reservations along public roads while adding aesthetic value to the area. Enhancing the community awareness about BioDiversity of Sri Lanka and the importance of maintaining a clean environment along road reservations is also another objective of this type of intervention. This intervention also addresses the needs of all sectors of the local communities.
Concept
The Green Road is a relatively new concept for roadway design that integrates transportation functionality and ecological sustainability. This project addresses the transport sector also because it facilitates Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) for local people. Therefore, Provincial Road Development Authority (PRDA) is the ideal institute to implement this project. It is also possible to introduce cycle tracks along stream banks as short cuts by improving the banks of natural streams as roads. This intervention would reduce vehicle congestion in main public roads while supporting Clean Sri Lanka programme because local communities themselves become watch dogs against culprits who pollute road reservations and water bodies of natural streams.
Already implemented projects in Mahaweli Areas
In Sri Lanka, the concept of Bio Corridor was introduced in 1988 under a Project called Mahaweli Agriculture and Rural Development project implemented in System B under an USAID funded programme. Similar to highways which connect main cities, in this case the Bio Corridors were introduced as “Bio Highways” connecting fragmented forest patches (“Bio Cities”) in paddy field areas. At the same time those corridors were improved as Cycle Tracks for the local farmers.
Figure 1 indicates the present status of a tree plantation programme implemented in Mahaweli Area (Thambuttegama) in the 1980s along newly introduced roads.
Past Experience of PRDA (WP) related to similar interventions
In 2010, similar intervention was introduced in Gampaha District in parallel with a flood mitigation project implemented by the Provincial Road Development Authority (WP). For example, while Uruwal Oya running adjacent to Gampaha Urban Area was improved to mitigate floods, riparian tree belt areas were also introduced. Later, parts of that stream running adjacent to Gampaha Town were improved as Recreational purposes such as jogging tracks for urban communities. As an additional benefit, it was expected that the shades provided by riparian tree cover would discourage growth of invasive plants such as Japan Jabara, which clogs the drainage outlets resulting in floods in urban areas.
by Eng. Mahinda Panapitiya
Features
Has Compass lost direction?

Sri Lankan voters have excelled in the art of changing governments in executioner style, which they did in many elections including that of 1977,1994, 2015, 2019 and, of course, 2024. They did so, giving massive majorities to parties in opposition that had only a few seats, because the preceding governments were so unpopular. It invariably was a negative vote, not a positive vote-endorsing policies, if any, of the incoming governments, the last election being no exception. NPP, contesting under the compass symbol, was essentially a revamp of the JVP and their main strategy, devoid of any specific policies, was throwing mud at opponents and promising a transparent, corruption free government. They made numerous promises on the hoof. Have they stood up to the challenges?
What the vast majority of the public wanted was a significant reduction in the cost of living, which has spiralled out of control due to the misdeeds of the many preceding regimes, resulting in near starvation for many. The NPP promised to renegotiate the deal with the IMF to give relief to the masses but soon found, to their dismay, that it was a non-starter. Of course, the supporters portrayed it as a display of pragmatism! They promised that the price of fuel could be slashed overnight as it was jacked up by the commission earned by the previous minister who was accused of earning over Rs 100 for every litre! It has not happened and the previous minister has not received the apology he deserves. The cost of living remains unbearable and all that the government continues to do effectively is slinging mud at opponents.
To the credit of the NPP government, financial corruption has not set in, but it cannot be forgotten that most previous governments, too, started this way, corruption setting in later in the cycle of government. However, corruption in other forms persist contrary to the promises made. Had the government sacked the former speaker, the moment he could not justify the claimed PhD, it could have claimed high ground and demonstrated that it would not tolerate corruption in any form. For some reason, unknown to the public, he seems to have a strong hold on the party and he seems indispensable!
As for bringing to justice those previously corrupt, only baby steps have been taken. During the election campaigns AKD promised to get Arjun Mahendran from Singapore within 24 hours of his election and now they are blaming the Singapore government! It looks as if promises were made without any idea as to the practicality of implementation. According to social media posts circulated, the list of assets held by Rajapaksas would have made them richer than Elon Musk! A lady lawyer who described in detail, during the election campaign, the wealth amassed in Uganda by Rajapaksas admitted, after her election, that there was no basis. Her justification was that the NPP government ensured free speech; even to tell lies as the truth.” Government media spokesman has just admitted that she lied about the cost of new year text messages sent by previous presidents and she remains an ‘honourable’ MP!
As far as transparency is concerned, Compass is directionless. MoUs/Pacts signed with India, during the recent visit of PM Modi shines bright with opaqueness! After giving various excuses previously, including that those interested could obtain details by making requests under the Right to Information Act, the official cabinet spokesman’s latest is that it needs the permission of India to release details. This makes one wonder whether there is a lot to hide or it may be that, de facto, we are already under the central government of India and that AKD is just the Chief Minister of the 29th state!
Whilst accusing the predecessors of misuse of power, the NPP does the same thing. AKD’s statements that he would be scrutinizing allocation of funds to local bodies, if opposition parties are elected, surely is an indirect threat to voters. Perhaps, it is not an election offence as the Elections Commission has not taken any action despite complaints!
Whether the exposition of the Tooth Relic, which was done in a mighty hurry, to coincide with the mini-election campaign would backfire remains to be seen. As it was done in a hurry, there was no proper planning and even the basic amenities were not provided to the thousands who queued for days. AKD, as usual, was quick with a political gesture by the unplanned visit meeting those in the queue. What he and his government should have done is proper planning but, instead, government supporters are inundating social media blaming the public for bad behaviour!
To cap this all is the biggest faux pas of all; naming the mastermind of the Easter Sunday attack. AKD built up expectations, and the nation was waiting for the exposure on 21 April, which never materialised. His acolytes are doling out excuses. Dr Nalinda Jayatissa was as evasive as possible during his post-cabinet meeting briefing. Perhaps, there is no mastermind other than those identified by all previous investigations including that by the FBI. All that the president did was handing over the Presidential Commission of Inquiry report to the CID. The acting IGP appointed a committee of three to study, but the next day a fourth person was added, a person who is named as one of those who did not act on intelligence received!
Perhaps, as an attempt to give credence to the allegations made in the Channel 4 programme, Pillayan was arrested. Though it was on a different offence, the alleged abduction of the former chancellor of the Eastern University, Minister Wijepala had the audacity to state in the parliament otherwise. Pillayan has been detained under the PTA, which the NPP promised to abolish! The worst is the campaign of character assassination of Udaya Gammanpila who has decided to represent Pillayan. Dr Jayatissa, who has never practised his profession, took exception that Gammanpila, who has not practiced as a lawyer, is representing Pillayan. Gammanpila has corrected him by listing the cases he had been involved in. In any case, Gammanpila need not be in court but get a set of lawyers to defend, if and when, a case is filed. It begs clarification, the ministerial comment that Gammanpila should be ashamed to represent Pillayan! Has the government already decided the guilt of Pillayan?
Compass has lost direction, indeed, and far too soon!
By Dr Upul Wijayawardhana
Features
Canada holds its own as Americans sour on Trump

On Monday, April 28, Canadians gave the Liberal Party its fourth successive mandate, albeit as another Minority Government but much stronger than in the last two elections, and, more importantly, with a different Prime Minister. Justin Trudeau who had been Prime Minister from 2015 was forced to resign in January 2025 on account of his perceived electoral unpopularity. Trudeau was succeeded by Marc Carney, 60 year old former Governor of the Bank of Canada and later the Bank of England, who dramatically revived the falling fortunes of the Liberal Party and secured its fourth mandate in 10 years.
The Liberal Party and Prime Minister Mark Carney owe their good fortunes to the presidential madness that is going on south of the border, in the United States of America. With his mercurial obsession over tariff’s and recurrent musings about making Canada America’s 51st State, President Trump painted the backdrop to the Canadian election. Trump’s antics did not go down well with the Canadian public and in a rare burst of patriotism the people of Canada overarched their diversities of geography, language, culture, religion and ethnicity, and rallied round the Maple Leaf national flag with utmost determination to stick it to Trump and other Ugly Americans of his ilk.
People and businesses in Canada shunned American products, stopped travelling to US holiday destinations and even took to booing the US national anthem at sporting events involving US and Canadian teams. The threat of economic pain due to a tariff war is real, but Canadians are daring to suffer pain rather than become a part of the US. And Justin Trudeau showed his best leadership in his last days as Prime Minister. Combining diplomatic skill and splendid teamwork with eloquent defiance, Trudeau succeeded in forcing Trump into what has since become Trump’s modus operandi in implementing his idiosyncratic tariff policy: tariff, one day; pause, the next day; and uncertainty, extended indefinitely.
100 Days of Disaster
What he began with Canada and Mexico, Trump has since writ large upon the whole world. His second term is already a term of chaos not only for America but also for the whole world economy. The US economy is officially in first quarter contraction. Another four months, it could be a man made recession of what was in January an economy that was humming sound and was easily the best performing one in the world. It’s only 100 days of the second term, and what is left of it is looming as eternity. “Only 1,361 Days to Go,” is the cover page heading of the latest issue of the Economist. That sums up America’s current state of affairs and their global spillover effects.
Americans are beginning to sour on Trump but there is no way for them to channel their frustrations and anger to force an immediate executive retreat. Trump has reduced the Republican Party to be his personal poodle and with Republics holding slender majorities in both the Congress and the Senate, the Legislative Branch of the US is now wholly beholden its Executive. The traditional wait is for the midterm Congress elections in two years. But Trump has no respect for traditions and conventions, and it would be two years too much before a Democratic majority in the two houses could bestir the Congress to check and balance the runway president.
The Judicial Branch is now playing catch up after the Supreme Court had given Trump near absolute immunity and enabled his second coming. The lower courts are applying the law as they should and stymieing Trump’s palpably illegal orders on everything from deporting immigrants, to downsizing government, and gutting the country’s university system. The tariff cases are slowly making their way to courts and they will add more confusion to the running of the economy before some kind of sanity is restored. Overall, by upending a system of government that has been constitutionally evolving over 200 years, Trump is providing a negatively sobering demonstration that no system is foolproof if a capable fool is elected to take over the reins of government.
Fortunately for the world, other governments and polities have been quick in drawing the right lessons from the demonstration effects of Trump on their American cousins. Trump’s excesses have had a dampening effect on right wing populism in other countries. The Canadian elections are one such demonstration. Another is expected in Australia where national elections are scheduled for Saturday, May 3. In Europe, right wing populist parties are scaling down their rhetoric to avoid facing local backlashes to Trump’s American excesses.
No populist leader anywhere wants to go where Trump is blindly heading, and no one is mad enough like him to think that imposing tariffs is the way to grow a national economy. In Hungary, its strongman Viktor Orbán after securing super majorities in four elections since 2010, is facing the real possibility of defeat in the national elections next year. Orban is regressively anti-Eu while 86% of Hungarians want to strengthen their EU ties, and they are naturally getting tired of Orban’s smearing of the EU just like all Europeans are getting tired of Trump’s and his VP Vance’s anti-European rhetoric.
Canada Holds its Own
Canada, despite its proximity to the US, has never been a haven for Trump’s right wing populism. Yet there have always been and continue to be pockets of support for Trumpism in Canada, and they have found their sanctuary within the Conservative Party of Canada and behind its leader Pierre Poilievre, a 45-year old career politician who entered parliament in 2005 at the age of 25 and became Leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Opposition 18 years later, in 2023.
Clever and articulate with an ability to spin rhyming simplistic slogans, Poilievre cultivated his political base by feeding it on a diet of vitriolic and vulgar personal attacks and advertisements denigrating then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Poilievre identified himself with the 2022 truck convoy protest that stormed Ottawa, cheered on by MAGA America, and he came to be seen as Canada’s Trump-lite (not unlike Peter Dutton, the Leader of the Opposition in Australia). Nonetheless, Poilievre’s attacks on Trudeau worked in the post-Covid climate of economic hardships and Trudeau’s popularity sank to the point that his own MP’s started calling for his resignation.
Alas for Poilievre, Trudeau’s resignation in January took away the one political foil or bogeyman on whom he had built his whole campaign. In addition, while his attacks on Trudeau diminished Trudeau’s popularity, it did not help enhance Mr. Poilievre’s image among Canadians in general. In fact, he was quite unpopular outside his base of devotees. More people viewed him unfavourably than those who viewed him favourably. Outside his base, he became a drag on his party. He would even go down to defeat in his own electorate and lose his seat in parliament that he had held for 20 years.
Mr. Poilievre’s troubles began with the emergence of Mark Carney as the new Liberal Leader and Prime Minister – looking calm, competent and carrying the ideal resume of experience in dealing with the 2008 financial crisis as Governor of the Bank of Canada, and calming market nerves after the 2016 Brexit referendum as Governor of the Bank of England. Carnie, who had never been in formal politics before, seemed the perfect man to be Prime Minister to weather the economic uncertainties that President Trump was spewing from Washington. Almost overnight Liberal fortunes shot up and after resigning themselves to face a crushing defeat with Trudeau at the helm, Liberals were suddenly facing real prospects of forming a majority after two terms of minority government.
In the end, thanks to the quirky genius of the electorate, Liberals ended with 168 seats with 43.7% of the vote, and four seats short of a majority in the 343 seat national parliament, while the Conservative Party garnered 144 seats with 41.3% vote share. Both parties gained seats from their last election tallies, 15 new seats for Liberals and 16 for Tories, and, unusual in recent elections, the two parties garnered 85% of the total vote. The increases came at the expense of the two smaller but significant parties, the left leaning New Democratic Party (reduced from 24 to seven seats); and the Bloc Québécois (reduced from 45 to 23 seats) that contests only in the French majority Province of Quebec. The Green Party that had two MPs lost one of them in the election.
In the last parliament, the New Democrats gave parliamentary support to the minority Trudeau government in return for launching three significant social welfare initiatives – a national childcare program, an income-based universal dental care program, and a pharmacare program to subsidize the cost of prescription drugs. These are in addition to the system of universal public health insurance for hospitals and physician services that has been in place from 1966, thanks again to the programmatic insistence of the New Democratic Party (NDP).
But the NDP could not reap any electoral reward for its progressive conscience and even its leader Jagmeet Singh, a Sikh Canadian, lost his seat in the election. The misfortune of the NDP and the Bloc Québécois came about because even their supporters like many other Canadians wanted to entrust Mark Carney, and not Pierre Poilievre, with the responsibility to protect the Canadian economy from the reckless onslaughts of Donald Trump.
Yet, despite initial indications of a majority government, the Liberals fell agonizingly short of the target by a mere four seats. The Tories, while totally deprived of what seemed in January to be the chance of a landslide victory, managed to stave off a Liberal sweep under Mark Carney. The answers to these paradoxes are manifold and are part of the of reasonably positive functioning of Canadian federalism. The system enables political energies and conflicts to be dispersed at multiple levels of government and spatial jurisdictions, and to be addressed with minimal antagonism between contending forces. The proximity to the US helps inasmuch as it provides a demonstration of the American pitfalls that others should avoid.
by Rajan Philips
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