Business

GSP+ withdrawal: How would it impact Sri Lanka’s economy?

Published

5 years ago

2021/10/1

By Asanka Wijesinghe and Eleesha Munasinghe

Sri Lanka’s preferential access to the vital European Union (EU) market faces fresh challenges after the European Parliament’s special resolution adopted in June 2021. The resolution calls for an assessment on “whether there is sufficient reason, as a last resort, to initiate a procedure for the temporary withdrawal of Sri Lanka’s GSP+ status.”.

The GSP+ is a non-reciprocal trading arrangement whereby Sri Lanka does not have to lower tariffs in return but is required to implement certain non-trade related conventions to benefit from preferential access. The GSP+ arrangement slashes import duties to zero for vulnerable low and lower-middle-income countries that implement 27 international conventions related to human rights, labour rights, environment protection, and good governance. This article assesses the impact of a hypothetical withdrawal of GSP+ on Sri Lanka’s exports to the EU: the largest single trading bloc, with the United Kingdom (UK), accounting for 30% of Sri Lanka’s exports.

The Impact

A possible withdrawal of GSP+ will increase the tariffs for Sri Lankan products up to the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariffs. Consequently, products coming from Sri Lanka will be more expensive in the EU market, directly reducing the export demand from Sri Lanka. However, Sri Lanka’s competitors that continue to benefit from the EU’s GSP will face zero preferential tariffs. Thus, in addition to the trade destruction effect, with the relative price of goods from Sri Lanka being higher, the trade will be diverted to those competitors. Using a partial equilibrium analysis, one can ex-ante quantify these effects of GSP+ withdrawal. Assuming the UK will follow the EU lead, and Sri Lanka will face the lower bound of relevant MFN tariffs, partial equilibrium estimates show that Sri Lanka’s exports to the EU will fall by 627 USD million The simulations are done taking 2019 as the base year.

The worst-hit sectors are apparel (HS 61 and HS 62), tobacco (HS 24), seafood (HS 03), and rubber (HS 40) sectors. The combined loss for the apparel sector will be as much as 494 USD million, and it is 79% of the total estimated trade loss. In addition, the seafood sector is deemed to lose 20 USD million or 17% of the sector’s 2019 exports to the EU. Thus, losing preference to a vital market will be hard for the recovering seafood industry

There are two caveats of an ex-ante impact assessment of this kind. The first is that the analysis is based on assumed elasticities. However, the assumptions are not overly restrictive. The second is that all the eligible exports from Sri Lanka do not utilise the GSP+ facility. Thus, the actual impact will be contingent upon the utilisation ratio. However, after Sri Lanka regained GSP+ preference in 2017, the utilisation ratio increased, reaching 61.8% in 2019, improving from 55.1% in 2017. Therefore, the increasing utilisation ratio makes the potential impact still significant.

Notably, there is a variation of the utilisation rate within the HS chapters, .

The apparel sector will be relatively resilient to a loss of preference as its utilisation ratio was 52% in 2019. However, a loss of preference will halt any industry drive that aims to increase the utilisation rate and then expand the market share in the EU. Further, the 2010 loss of GSP+ inflicted high costs to the industry. As seafood, rubber products, and footwear sectors utilise more than 90% of GSP+ preference, those sectors will be more vulnerable to the shock. Indeed, the difference between GSP+ preferential tariff and MFN tariff for seafood is higher -zero versus 7.5% respectively aggravating the impact.

Future Steps

The losses from GSP+ preference will be significant and heterogeneous across sectors. The GSP+ also opens the door for EU investments as outsourcing production to preference receivers is beneficial to the EU. In addition, sectoral losses may spillover to the overall economy exacerbating poverty and income inequality. Thus, avoiding such losses should be a political priority for policymakers. Less dependence on the EU market is a widely suggested strategy. Diversification is indeed beneficial when it is done for economic reasons. However, ad-hoc moves to diversify to escape from unresolved political issues will not do much good. The EU market is a high-end export destination for Sri Lanka. The quality improvements, product standards, and consumer preferences positively challenge the Sri Lankan exporters to improve product quality and competitiveness.

Additionally, a non-reciprocal preference for various products incentivises product diversification away from traditional exports into more complex products like electronic equipment, including semiconductors (HS chapter 85). Therefore, while Sri Lanka should work to secure the GSP+ resolving the current political issues and focus on fully utilising GSP+ preference in the short run. In the long run, as GSP+ is contingent upon income level, Sri Lanka will lose it someday, and as such should enter into reciprocal trade agreements with the EU and other high-end markets, including the US.

Link to blog: https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2021/09/28/gsp-withdrawal-how-would-it-impact-sri-lankas-economy/

Asanka Wijesinghe is a Research Economist at the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS) with research interests in macroeconomic policy, international trade, labour and health economics. He is also interested in the impact of adjustment costs of trade, gravity modelling in trade, econometrics and the trade origins of populist politics. He has undertaken efficiency analyses, particularly public spending efficiency, using parametric and non-parametric efficiency analysis approaches.

Asanka holds a BSc in Agricultural Technology and Management from the University of Peradeniya, an MS in Agribusiness and Applied Economics from North Dakota State University, and an MS and PhD in Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics from The Ohio State University. His latest research focused on the effect of global trade-induced labour market changes on voting behaviour in recent US elections, including the 2016 presidential election.

Eleesha Munasinghe was a research intern at IPS. She is currently an undergraduate (Economics and Finance) at New Castle University in UK.

All News Advertisement

Business

ADB signals strategic shift amid global turbulence, eyes budget support for Sri Lanka

Published

5 hours ago

2026/05/5

Sahan Weerasooriya

ADB President Masato Kanda (L) speaks at a one- on-one in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, yesterday.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is actively engaging with Sri Lanka on a potential budget financing package, following recent discussions between ADB President Masato Kanda and President Anura Kumara Dissanayake.

Describing the request as “crucial,” Kanda said the proposal is now under internal consideration, with a broader framework being developed to ensure funds are directed toward priority sectors such as energy security, food security, and overall budgetary support. While no figures or timelines were disclosed, he emphasised the need for a carefully structured and mutually agreed resource allocation strategy

Sri Lanka is among several countries that have approached the ADB for similar assistance, reflecting mounting fiscal pressures across the region.

Speaking at one of the key meetings of the 59th Annual Meeting of the ADB in Samarkand, Kanda outlined a broader institutional shift in response to escalating global economic uncertainties, particularly those stemming from tensions linked to the Iran conflict.

“Asia and the Pacific can’t afford to retreat into isolation,” he said, reiterating a paradigm shift in how the ADB responds with greater speed, flexibility, and coordination.

Reaffirming the bank’s commitment to the region, Kanda stated, “We will step forward as one, while the ADB will be your steadfast anchor,” signaling a more proactive and unified approach to crisis response and economic stabilisation.

As part of this renewed strategy, the ADB has launched a $70 billion initiative aimed at strengthening regional connectivity through integrated power grids and digital infrastructure. The program is expected to play a transformative role in boosting cross-border energy cooperation and technological integration. By 2035, the bank aims to facilitate the integration of approximately 20 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity across national borders, supporting both energy transition goals and regional resilience.

Kanda also detailed a multi-tiered response framework to address immediate and long-term economic disruptions. In the short term, the ADB is leveraging its Trade and Supply Chain Finance Program to provide rapid liquidity support. This is complemented by fast-disbursing budget assistance designed to shield vulnerable populations from economic shocks.

Over the medium term, the bank plans to deploy resilience-building tools to help the regional economies stabilise and adapt to ongoing geopolitical and financial stresses.

The evolving strategy reflects a recognition that traditional development financing models may be insufficient in the face of increasingly complex and interconnected global crises. For countries like Sri Lanka, the outcome of these discussions could prove pivotal in facing current economic challenges while laying the groundwork for sustainable recovery.

As deliberations continue in Samarkand, the focus remains on translating high-level commitments into tangible support mechanisms tailored to the specific needs of ADB”s member countries.

By Sanath Nanayakkare in Samarkand, Uzbekistan

Business

Sri Lankan Food Festival 2026

Published

5 hours ago

2026/05/5

Sahan Weerasooriya

At the initiative of the Deputy High Commissioner of Sri Lanka, Dr. Ganesanathan Geathiswaran, the Deputy High Commission of Sri Lanka in Chennai successfully organized the first-ever “Sri Lanka Food Festival 2026” from 24th to 26th April at Green Meadows Resort, Chennai.

The Festival provided a unique platform to showcase the rich and diverse culinary heritage of Sri Lanka, offering guests an authentic experience of traditional Sri Lankan cuisine.

The event was organized in collaboration with esteemed partners, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Employment and Tourism of Sri Lanka; Sri Lanka Tourism Promotion Bureau; Cinnamon Grand Hotel, Colombo; Ministry of External Affairs of India; India Tourism, the Government of India, the Tourism Department of the Government of Tamil Nadu, Dwarka Productions Chennai, and Tarlton Tea.

The primary objective of the festival to further strengthen cultural ties between Sri Lanka and South India while promoting tourism, trade, and people-to-people connections through a shared appreciation of culinary heritage was successfully achieved.

The occasion was further honoured by the presence of Suresh Jain, District Governor of Rotary District 3234; Navin Gupta, President of the Rotary Club of Chennai Coastal; and the Chief Guest, Dr. Ishari K. Ganesh, Founder, Chairman and Chancellor of Vels University.

The event was also attended by Mr. Blaze Kannan of Dwarka Productions; Nazoomi Azhar, General Manager of Cinnamon Grand Hotel, Colombo; and Sri Lankan actor Kalana Gunasekara, whose presence added further distinction to the occasion.

The festival witnessed the participation of diplomatic Corps, South Indian actors and actresses, distinguished business leaders, members of travel and tourism associations, members of Rotary Clubs, Round Table members, and members of the media fraternity, making it a prestigious and diverse gathering.

Over 700 guests attended the festival across the three days, reflecting strong interest and engagement from the local community.

In addition, the Rotary Club of Chennai Coastal announced its initiative to donate an ambulance to Sri Lanka and to renovate 30 schools across the country, further strengthening goodwill and support in the healthcare and education sectors between the two regions.

Business

JAECOO shakes up UK auto market with record-breaking growth

Published

5 hours ago

2026/05/5

Sahan Weerasooriya

Since its UK debut in January 2025, JAECOO has recorded 28,232 new vehicle registrations within its first year, validated by the SMMT, making it the fastest-growing mainstream automotive brand Britain has seen in over a decade. Its flagship model, the JAECOO J7 PHEV, ranked among the most popular retail cars in the UK within its first year and emerged as the best-selling new car in Britain in March 2026.

These results have been further reinforced by a series of prestigious industry accolades:

Carwow Brand of the Year 2026

Leasing.com Overall Car of the Year

Recognised by Google as the most searched Chinese automotive brand in the UK in its Year in Search 2025

Supporting this growth is JAECOO’s parent company, Chery Group, ranked 233rd in the Fortune Global 500 (2025) and China’s No. 1 passenger vehicle exporter for 23 consecutive years.

This global momentum is beginning to translate into local demand, with growing interest in the JAECOO J7 PHEV across Sri Lanka. Designed to combine premium styling with advanced technology and everyday practicality, the model is well suited to both urban driving and more challenging terrain. It offers a combined range of up to 1,200 km, fast-charging capability (30% to 80% in 20 minutes), and acceleration from 0–100 km/h in under 8.5 seconds. Safety and reliability are reinforced through advanced driver-assistance features, a five-star Euro NCAP rating, and a seven-year warranty offered by Hayleys Mobility.