Business
GSP+ withdrawal: How would it impact Sri Lanka’s economy?
By Asanka Wijesinghe and Eleesha Munasinghe
Sri Lanka’s preferential access to the vital European Union (EU) market faces fresh challenges after the European Parliament’s special resolution adopted in June 2021. The resolution calls for an assessment on “whether there is sufficient reason, as a last resort, to initiate a procedure for the temporary withdrawal of Sri Lanka’s GSP+ status.”.
The GSP+ is a non-reciprocal trading arrangement whereby Sri Lanka does not have to lower tariffs in return but is required to implement certain non-trade related conventions to benefit from preferential access. The GSP+ arrangement slashes import duties to zero for vulnerable low and lower-middle-income countries that implement 27 international conventions related to human rights, labour rights, environment protection, and good governance. This article assesses the impact of a hypothetical withdrawal of GSP+ on Sri Lanka’s exports to the EU: the largest single trading bloc, with the United Kingdom (UK), accounting for 30% of Sri Lanka’s exports.
The Impact
A possible withdrawal of GSP+ will increase the tariffs for Sri Lankan products up to the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariffs. Consequently, products coming from Sri Lanka will be more expensive in the EU market, directly reducing the export demand from Sri Lanka. However, Sri Lanka’s competitors that continue to benefit from the EU’s GSP will face zero preferential tariffs. Thus, in addition to the trade destruction effect, with the relative price of goods from Sri Lanka being higher, the trade will be diverted to those competitors. Using a partial equilibrium analysis, one can ex-ante quantify these effects of GSP+ withdrawal. Assuming the UK will follow the EU lead, and Sri Lanka will face the lower bound of relevant MFN tariffs, partial equilibrium estimates show that Sri Lanka’s exports to the EU will fall by 627 USD million The simulations are done taking 2019 as the base year.
The worst-hit sectors are apparel (HS 61 and HS 62), tobacco (HS 24), seafood (HS 03), and rubber (HS 40) sectors. The combined loss for the apparel sector will be as much as 494 USD million, and it is 79% of the total estimated trade loss. In addition, the seafood sector is deemed to lose 20 USD million or 17% of the sector’s 2019 exports to the EU. Thus, losing preference to a vital market will be hard for the recovering seafood industry
There are two caveats of an ex-ante impact assessment of this kind. The first is that the analysis is based on assumed elasticities. However, the assumptions are not overly restrictive. The second is that all the eligible exports from Sri Lanka do not utilise the GSP+ facility. Thus, the actual impact will be contingent upon the utilisation ratio. However, after Sri Lanka regained GSP+ preference in 2017, the utilisation ratio increased, reaching 61.8% in 2019, improving from 55.1% in 2017. Therefore, the increasing utilisation ratio makes the potential impact still significant.
Notably, there is a variation of the utilisation rate within the HS chapters, .
The apparel sector will be relatively resilient to a loss of preference as its utilisation ratio was 52% in 2019. However, a loss of preference will halt any industry drive that aims to increase the utilisation rate and then expand the market share in the EU. Further, the 2010 loss of GSP+ inflicted high costs to the industry. As seafood, rubber products, and footwear sectors utilise more than 90% of GSP+ preference, those sectors will be more vulnerable to the shock. Indeed, the difference between GSP+ preferential tariff and MFN tariff for seafood is higher -zero versus 7.5% respectively aggravating the impact.
Future Steps
The losses from GSP+ preference will be significant and heterogeneous across sectors. The GSP+ also opens the door for EU investments as outsourcing production to preference receivers is beneficial to the EU. In addition, sectoral losses may spillover to the overall economy exacerbating poverty and income inequality. Thus, avoiding such losses should be a political priority for policymakers. Less dependence on the EU market is a widely suggested strategy. Diversification is indeed beneficial when it is done for economic reasons. However, ad-hoc moves to diversify to escape from unresolved political issues will not do much good. The EU market is a high-end export destination for Sri Lanka. The quality improvements, product standards, and consumer preferences positively challenge the Sri Lankan exporters to improve product quality and competitiveness.
Additionally, a non-reciprocal preference for various products incentivises product diversification away from traditional exports into more complex products like electronic equipment, including semiconductors (HS chapter 85). Therefore, while Sri Lanka should work to secure the GSP+ resolving the current political issues and focus on fully utilising GSP+ preference in the short run. In the long run, as GSP+ is contingent upon income level, Sri Lanka will lose it someday, and as such should enter into reciprocal trade agreements with the EU and other high-end markets, including the US.
Link to blog: https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2021/09/28/gsp-withdrawal-how-would-it-impact-sri-lankas-economy/
Asanka Wijesinghe is a Research Economist at the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS) with research interests in macroeconomic policy, international trade, labour and health economics. He is also interested in the impact of adjustment costs of trade, gravity modelling in trade, econometrics and the trade origins of populist politics. He has undertaken efficiency analyses, particularly public spending efficiency, using parametric and non-parametric efficiency analysis approaches.
Asanka holds a BSc in Agricultural Technology and Management from the University of Peradeniya, an MS in Agribusiness and Applied Economics from North Dakota State University, and an MS and PhD in Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics from The Ohio State University. His latest research focused on the effect of global trade-induced labour market changes on voting behaviour in recent US elections, including the 2016 presidential election.
Eleesha Munasinghe was a research intern at IPS. She is currently an undergraduate (Economics and Finance) at New Castle University in UK.
Business
Males and females in their 40s more dominant in Sri Lanka labour force
Key survey shows an increase in employment in 2024 compared to 2023
Unemployment problem more acute for educated females than educated males
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Most of the males and females active in the labour force in Sri Lanka were in their 40s, according to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) valid for the second quarter 2024, conducted by the Census and Statistics Department of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka.
The unemployment problem in Sri Lanka is more acute for educated females than educated males, the survey bulleting stated referring to its consistent observation over the past years.
The survey was based on the data collected in April, May and June in 2024 covering the whole country.
It was also based on the quarterly sample of 6,440 housing units. It covered persons living in housing units only and it excluded the institutional population.
Considering the distribution of Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) by age group and by gender depicts high male participation compared to female in all age groups. The highest participation rate for male is reported from age group 45 – 49 years (96.3%), while that for female is reported from 40 – 44 age group (46.5%).
During second quarter of 2024, the total number of employed persons in Sri Lanka was estimated as 8 million. Of which, about 48.5 percent engaged in the service sector, 26.5 percent in industry sector and 25.0 percent in agriculture sector. In the second quarter of 2024, there were increases in employed persons in service and industry sectors compared to the second quarter of 2023.
The majority of the workforce are private sector employees followed by own account workers. Non agriculture sector covered 75.0 percent of employed population in Sri Lanka, employees and own account workers were highly constraining in that sector. The highest employment share was in service sector and this was true for both male and female, while the lowest shares were for agriculture sector. Among employed females 22.1 percent was in agriculture sector while this share was 26.5 percent for males.
The overall unemployment rate reported for female was 7.0 percent and it was 3.6 percent for male. Youth unemployment rate (age 15 – 24 years) corresponding to the second quarter 2024 was 25.4 percent and that was the highest reported unemployment rate among all age groups. Further the unemployment rates for males and females were 20.1 and 35.6 percent respectively for age group 15 – 24.
The survey results further revealed that the unemployment among females was higher than that of males, in all age groups. Youth and female unemployment contribute more to the overall unemployment of the country.
The number of unemployed persons was estimated as 397,855 during the second quarter 2024. The unemployment rate for the second quarter 2024 was 4.7 percent.
The highest unemployment rate was reported from the G.C.E.(A/L) and above group which is 7.8 percent. Corresponding percentages were 5.8 percent and 10.0 percent for males and females respectively. Female unemployment rates were higher than those of males in all levels of education. Survey results further showed that the problem of unemployment was more acute in the case of educated females than educated males, which was observed consistently over the results of previous survey rounds as well.
Business
Aviyana Ceylon prides itself on offering bespoke experiences
Luxury hospitality sector
By Ifham Nizam
Luxury hospitality in Sri Lanka has reached new heights with Aviyana, a leisure property that blends bespoke experiences, sustainability and cultural enrichment.
Speaking to The Island Financial Review about the challenges and opportunities in the luxury travel industry, Shezad Hameed, Director of Operations at Aviyana, shared insights into how the property is transforming Sri Lankan tourism.
Hameed acknowledged the operational hurdles in maintaining Aviyana’s high standards, including a skilled labor shortage and rising costs. “High turnover rates and wage inflation are persistent challenges in the luxury hospitality sector,” he explained. “We’ve tackled these by investing in talent recruitment, retention strategies, and cost management, such as adopting energy-efficient technologies and renegotiating supplier contracts.”
Despite these challenges, Aviyana has carved a niche in experiential luxury, appealing to travelers seeking authenticity, personalization, and purpose-driven experiences. “Luxury is no longer about superficial extravagance,” Hameed said. “Today’s travelers prioritize immersive, meaningful connections. At Aviyana, we deliver this through curated adventures that showcase Sri Lanka’s natural beauty and cultural heritage.”
Aviyana offers a wide array of tailored experiences, from private treks in the Knuckles Mountain Range to serene lakeside retreats. “Personalization is at the heart of what we do,” Hameed emphasized.
“From the moment a guest inquires, our team crafts bespoke itineraries tailored to their preferences, whether it’s dietary needs, wellness treatments, or adventurous excursions. Every stay is meticulously curated to ensure it becomes a cherished memory.”
The property’s eco-conscious practices also set it apart. “Sustainability is integral to our operations,” Hameed noted. “Our ‘BREATHE’ initiative has planted over 3,000 trees, supporting biodiversity and reforestation. We operate a zero-waste policy and source fresh produce from our on-site organic farm. These efforts reflect the global shift towards responsible tourism.”
Aviyana’s commitment to the community is equally significant. “We employ and train locals from nearby villages, offering them career opportunities with potential for advancement.”
Understanding the growing demand for experiential travel, Aviyana has devoted half of its 24-acre property to curated activities. “Guests can immerse themselves in cultural workshops, farm-to-table dining, and guided wildlife encounters,” Hameed explained. “We’re also a haven for nature photographers and documentary crews, offering access to untouched ecosystems and stunning landscapes and that’s how we have redefined Sri Lankan hospitality, offering unique adventures on the ground, air, and water.”
Looking to the future, Aviyana plans to launch an innovative booking system designed to enhance guest experiences further. “Our goal is to craft transformative journeys that resonate with today’s discerning travelers,” Hameed stated.
He also said Aviyana has become a sought-after haven for nature photographers and documentary crews, offering access to untouched ecosystems, rare wildlife, and stunning landscapes that have yet to be explored, making it ideal for those seeking creative inspiration.
In alignment with global sustainability trends, we integrate eco-conscious practices into every aspect of the guest experience—whether through solar-powered utilities, reforestation initiatives with over 3,000 trees with our ‘BREATHE’ initiative, or our zero-waste policies.
“We are excited to introduce an innovative booking system tailored to our market segment, which we look forward to unveiling alongside the official launch of bookings,” Hameed said.
Business
‘Invest Sri Lanka’ Capital Market Forum to be held in Colombo in March 2025
The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) and the Securities and Exchange Commission of Sri Lanka (SEC) in association with the Stock Broker industry, will host the “Invest Sri Lanka” Capital Market Investor Forum on 27th and 28th March 2025, at the Shangri-La Hotel in Colombo.
The event is aimed at promoting investment in the Sri Lankan capital market among institutional investors and fund managers based both locally and internationally.
This flagship forum will bring together key stakeholders from Sri Lanka’s capital market ecosystem to showcase the country’s investment potential. It will highlight Sri Lanka as an attractive investment destination, especially in light of recent economic reforms and the latest upgrade from Fitch Ratings, which has raised Sri Lanka’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating from Restricted Default (RD) to CCC+.
This upgrade reflects the country’s significant progress in stabilizing its economy and signals that the risk of imminent default has eased, fostering growing confidence in Sri Lanka’s financial recovery. It is a crucial milestone in the country’s efforts to rebuild credibility and regain investor trust, playing an essential role in attracting both domestic and international investors, particularly through debt restructuring efforts, fiscal reforms, and securing international support, such as the ongoing IMF program.
This improvement is expected to provide an important boost to investor sentiment, as it demonstrates Sri Lanka’s commitment to addressing its economic challenges and taking necessary steps to ensure long-term fiscal stability.
The ‘Invest Sri Lanka’ Capital Market Investor Forum 2025 will feature leaders in Government, financial and capital market sectors, including regulators, market intermediaries and listed companies to make a collective case for Sri Lanka as an attractive investment destination.
The forum will provide networking opportunities, fostering meaningful connections and promoting synergies that highlight the investment potential within Sri Lanka’s dynamic capital market. Pre-scheduled one-on-one discussions between international fund managers and Sri Lankan companies will facilitate further investment partnerships.
The Capital Market Investor Forum 2025 comes at a time of continued positive growth for Sri Lanka’s stock market, offering an attractive environment for investors through the country’s economic reforms and financial market liberalization. This forum will build on previous initiatives aimed at driving foreign investment and positioning Sri Lanka as a leading frontier market in Asia.
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