Connect with us

Features

Gathering Storms Cloud the Horizon

Published

on

The Muslim World: A Gathering Storm

Military, Political, Strategic and Economic Uncertainties Abound

by Kumar David

I will argue in this essay that the world has entered a period of great uncertainty following the long wave of expansion and relative prosperity after the end of WW2. This is in the intrinsic nature of capitalism – crisis, war and recession followed by boom; it has always been so though in every instance the specific trajectory has been different.

This time there are five distinctive features: the power and preponderance of the United States in the military domain, the never before seen division of the world into a Muslim sphere against Israel and the US joined-at –the-hip while Europe hops around like an embarrassed spectator, third the rise of China as a mighty economy (I will expand on this later), a war in Ukraine which according to available reports Russia is winning (NATO expansion to the borders of Russia can now be ruled out), and fifth, attempts at ethnic cleansing by the Israeli State (a war-crime and a startling repetition the holocaust that the Jews suffered at the hand of the Nazis).

I will spend a little time on US military and on the emergence of a united and angry Muslim world, a significant new phenomenon. US budgeted lay-out on military expenditure in 2023 was about $900 billion (China second at about $300 billion) and includes maintaining and training the world’s foremost air-force, eleven operational aircraft-carriers and their support fleets and paying for two more carriers under construction, upkeep of nearly 1,000 military bases on foreign soil, and developing stealth aircraft and high-mobility ultra-sonic missile (HMUSM) systems.

These are missiles that can change course in flight, manoeuvre, discharge multiple warheads and shoot down rockets and drones that threaten US ships and bases. Hezbollah and the Houthis have now learnt a trick. They discharge thousands of cheap rockets and drones that cost no more than a few hundred dollars apiece at American facilities compelling the US to retaliate with HMUSMs which cost about a million dollars each. The plan is to deplete the US budget. The Americans are scratching their heads what to do about this. Both the Americans and the Chinese are developing ‘Star-Wars’ capabilities, that is space and satellite based offensive capabilities. The world you may honestly declare is slowly (or not so slowly) going mad.

The specifics of how empires collapse depend on many uncertainties and imponderables. Who would have imagined that Alexander, the military genius who never lost a battle, would be forced to turn back when his exhausted troops refused to cross the Indus declaring that they had reached the end of the world, or that assassination on the Ides of March would botch Caesar’s ambition of conquering the “whole world”, or that in-fighting among his sons would stymie the Great Genghis?

Likewise the incandescence of the Muslim world, Russia’s conquest of eastern Ukraine and Netanyahu’s commitment to ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian people from all the lands of the Tora (Old Testament) will certainly scuttle US Imperialism within the lifetime of my younger readers. Year-2023 has been the most unusual year of the 21st Century if not the whole post-war period, and 2024-25 may turn out to be cataclysmic.

I refer next not only to political and military events but also to financial ones. A Washington-led group is seriously mulling the confiscation of $300 billion of Russian monies parked in Western financial assets, Treasury Bonds and in banks. The money is to be used as war reparations to compensate Ukraine. Legally however it is blatant theft.

I do not know how Moscow will retaliate but it is an invitation to military responses such as devastating attacks in eastern Ukraine, to confiscation of Western assets and investments in Russia and to disruption of the global oil and gas shipments. Russia could encourage Iran, the Hezbollah and the Houthis to play dirty in the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Aden.

Second guessing what may happen is pointless but one needs to be prepared for anything. On an individual note keeping personal savings in US dollars, dollarized asset classes or relying on SWIFT and similar dollar-oriented transactions classes should be minimised. China has developed Yuan led international transfer mechanisms that may be safer to use whenever possible.

2024 and beyond

To return to the angry radicalisation of the Muslim world, now unfolding events would have been thought incredible a few months ago. Turkey’s Erdogan has all but declared war on Israel; it needs to be confirmed but there are reports that Ankara has quit NATO, and Western capitals are alarmed by as yet unconfirmed and unreliable reports that Saudi Arabia has “declared war” on Israel. Putin was welcomed on the tarmac at Riyadh by the aged monarch King Salman himself (and Crown Prince MBS) and his visit was accompanied by festivities suitable for a monarch. The stable capitalist post-war world order has gone topsy-turvy.

News reports (not all equally reliable) over the New Year weekend assert that:

Wave upon wave of Palestinian anger will not abate until a homeland is established.

Turkey has quit NATO (??)

Russia and Turkey have deployed troops on the Syrian border within easy reach of Israel

Iran has sent war ships into the Red Se is support of Houthi Rebels (?)

Russia provides missiles for Yemen to attack a US base near or in Israel

Israel’s Supreme Court (split 8-7 decision) has barred Netanyahu from overruling its decisions

Massive retaliatory Russian missile strikes across Ukraine

Russian retaliatory measures such as taking over US financial assets and investments if the latter goes ahead with its illegal threat to confiscate $300 billion of Russian assets in American banks “to compensate Ukraine”.

Immature populisms and hare-brained policies are gaining ground in some developing countries, for example Chile and Argentina

And the list goes on and on; it’s not a pretty picture; the future is going to be grim and very ugly. The Middle East and Ukraine are engulfed in war; will it spread?

China

China is gaining. The Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) is making headway in investment, transport and economic growth in Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Mongolia). The role of the state, or to be precise the hegemony of the Communist Party, remains unchallenged as Jack Ma and a few upstart billionaires learnt to their cost.

At the small-enterprise level business is bustling – visit Shenzhen, Shanghai, Wuhan, Guangzhou and Hong Kong if you want to see it on the ground. Liberals are right when they bemoan the absence of liberal political democracy in China, but the death of entrepreneurial efficiency that the free-market underscores is not visible at the small-enterprise level. Twenty-five years ago I developed and published the thesis that China is neither socialist nor capitalist, that the oxymoron “socialist market economy” was a valid concept, that in the long run the evolution of global power will decide the fate of China and humanity; that’s unquestionable.

President Xi Jin Ping has recently commenced an anti-corruption drive and launched measures to supervise rampant excesses in social media. The former enjoys broad support among the people but there seems to be mixed reaction to the latter – fears of big-brother peering over one’s shoulder. The importance of the Party if not the State in China’s giant transformation is a topic of endless comment. Pulling six to eight hundred thousand people out of poverty within a few decades is an achievement unparalleled in all of world history. How can one be anything but flabbergasted?

The state has an important role to play in pushing forward economic growth in the third-world and in supervising the economy of capitalist nations. Its role in an oxymoronic “socialist market economy” is an exercise still in progress. There is a lesson here for midget Sri Lanka too. A Planning Commission, as a continuing entity where the best, the brightest and the most flexible minds play a role is needed. There are some useful lessons to learn from Nehru’s India.

The JVP-NPP, in my view still remains the best bet for Sri Lanka in dealing with some of these issues. True it has fallen short of promising free and fair democratic elections so as to erase the blot on its past. It has failed even more woefully in promising anything credible such as devolution of power, a plan for the Eastern Province and its Muslims, endorsement of the 13th Amendment and return to their owners of lands occupied and trashed by the military. But the JVP-NPP still remains the best bet. Sajith’s party is the UNP in other colours and Sajith hiself lacks stature as a national figure.



Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Features

Trump’s tariffs, AKD’s gazette and Sri Lanka’s diplomatic slumber

Published

on

“We are rather respectable in Colombo. We go to bed fairly early, and we remain there till morning. “

According to Sri Lanka’s diplomatic folklore, the late S.W. R. D. Bandaranaike uttered these words while explaining the reasons for Sri Lanka’s abstention on the UN resolution condemning the Soviet invasion of Hungary. Apparently, SWRD’s foreign ministry officials were asleep at home when the diplomatic cable seeking instructions was received from New York. In those days, there were no cell phones, Internet, or even fax or telex machines. The diplomatic cables were sent through post offices. Decoding them was a slow and time-consuming process. Thus, the government could not provide appropriate instructions to our mission in New York in time, and the Sri Lankan delegation abstained on that sensitive UN vote.

Sri Lanka’s Absence from Section 301 Consultations

But then, how does one explain Sri Lanka’s absence from the crucial bilateral consultation held in Washington by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) during March-April on “Forced Labour” under the Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974? Didn’t our foreign and trade ministries send appropriate instructions to Washington in time? Even if the instructions from the foreign ministry were transmitted to our embassy in Washington by pigeon carriers, there was enough time for Sri Lanka to participate in those meetings.

In March, the USTR initiated these 301 investigations on 60 trading partners, and invited all of them for confidential consultations. Out of the 60, 46 participated in these consultations. Sri Lanka was not one of them. Other countries that didn’t participate in these consultations included China, Russia, and Venezuela! In addition to that, the Section 301 Committee conducted a public hearing with interested parties on April 28 and 29. Washington-based diplomats, representatives from few trade ministries as well as representatives from many foreign trade associations and chambers participated in these hearings. Sri Lanka was once again conspicuously absent.

As a result, when the USTR published the proposed forced labour tariffs on June 2nd, Sri Lanka ended up with a 12.5% duty. Pakistani and Indonesian diplomats participated in these consultations and took appropriate follow-up measures, and managed to enter the 10% duty category. As even a threat of a modest tariff hike could disrupt supply chains and reduce competitiveness, particularly in an industry such as garments, I discussed this issue on 15 June and underscored the importance of Sri Lanka’s participation at the next hearing, which was scheduled to be held from July 7th .

Awakening from Diplomatic Slumber and AKD’s Gazette

Fortunately, Sri Lanka finally awoke from weeks of diplomatic slumber, and Ambassador Mahinda Samarasinghe participated in the public hearing on 9 July, and promised, “…. · We have agreed to the text in our negotiations with the USTR on forced labour, …. The gazette as we speak is being printed and I’m getting the gazette tomorrow morning, and the gazette will be shared with USTR as I get it“.

As promised, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake issued a gazette on 10 July banning the imports of goods produced by forced labour. These new regulations are very similar to what Pakistan and Indonesia enacted in April, after their consultations with USTR in March. Why couldn’t we do it in April? Why did we wait till the very last minute?

Challenges ahead

“War is too important to be left to generals alone,” is a famous saying attributed to former French Premier Georges Clemenceau. Similarly, monitoring our main markets is too important to be left to diplomats alone. The United States is the largest single-country market for Sri Lanka. Therefore, Sri Lankan trade chambers and associations should become more proactive in these markets and participate in these events. For example, the chairman of the Pakistani apparel exporters association participated in the April hearings. Similarly, representatives from the Indian Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, the Confederation of Indian Industry, and Reliance Industries also participated in July hearings. At an event where each speaker is given only five minutes (strictly enforced), having a number of speakers from a country is an advantage. The presence of industry representatives in these kinds of events also help them understand the market dynamics and the future challenges. This is important, particularly because there will be many more challenges with Trump’s tariffs.

With the gazette issued on 10 July, Sri Lanka has imposed a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labour. Now, the challenge will be to effectively enforce the prohibition. And what are the goods produced with forced labour? The USTR list only focuses on aluminum, cotton, electronics, lithium-ion batteries, rice, and tobacco. However, according to the U.S. Department of Labour, the list is much longer. Hence, this list may change continuously during the next two years and tariffs may fluctuate once again.

So, this is definitely not the time to slumber.

(The writer, a retired public servant, can be reached at senadhiragomi@gmail.com)

by Gomi Senadhira ✍️

Continue Reading

Features

Tales of Mystery and Suspense 10 Casino for Sale

Published

on

After the overwhelming grotesquerie of J K Rowling’s latest Cormoran Strike novel (written, I should have noted, as the others were, under the pseudonym Robert Galbraith), I thought I should return to the world of fun, and also a much shorter description since this thriller moves quickly without the layers of detail that Rowling engages in.

I then move to the second comic thriller by Caryl Brahms and S J Simon. This, their second story to feature Vladimir Stroganoff and Adam Quill, was Casino for Sale, as lunatic a romp as the first, though without the emphasis on the ballet that characterized A Bullet in the Ballet.

This one begins with the impresario Stroganoff buying a casino cheap from Baron Sam de Rabinovich, only to find that it was a rundown place, not the grand casino of La Bazouche, a resort on the Frenc+h Riviera, as he had initially thought. The grand one belonged to Lord Buttonhooke, and Stroganoff could  not compete, until he thought of bringing the Ballet Stroganoff to the casino – which of course leads to Buttonhooke deciding to have ballet performances in his Casino too.

Stroganoff invites Quill to visit him, which Quill decides to do since he has left Scotland Yard, having come into a legacy. No one believes this, and he has to face questions as to what he did to have been sacked, with sympathy for having been found out.

Caryl and Simon

The day he arrives in La Bazouche there is a murder, of a vitriolic critic called Citrolo, in Stroganoff’s office. He had been going to write a damning review of the opening night of the ballet and Stroganoff, when he realizes Citrolo cannot be swayed, drugs him and dictates the review himself to the papers. He leaves Citrolo sleeping and finds him shot the next morning, whereupon he decides to muddy the waters and leave a suicide note and lots of other murder weapons. So much overkill, as it were, of course ensures that he is arrested.

But the excitable French detective who makes the arrest follows up his suggestion that Buttonhooke was also involved, and so the two casino owners find themselves in cells next door to each other, with the detective Gustave quite happy to provide creature comforts for a fee.

Quill decides he must investigate, and finds Gustave most cooperative, since he has a laid back attitude to work. So it is Quill that finds a notebook which makes it clear Citrolo is an accomplished blackmailer, and that there are lots of possible murderers, including Stroganoff’s croupier, who was crooked, Rabinovich, who was now working for Buttonhooke, a confidence trickster called Kurt Kukumber, whose prospectus for a dud gold mine was found in the office and Prince Alexis Artishok who was engaged in a deal to buy diamonds from the ballerina Dyra Dyrakova.

Stroganoff had been trying to get Dyrakova to dance for him, but having done so previously she had refused. But then to Stroganoff’s chagrin she agreed to dance for Buttonhooke. The clearly crooked Artishok had told Buttonhooke’s mistress Sadie Souse, who was not very bright, that Dyrakova possessed diamonds she was willing to sell cheap, and Sadie was determined to have them.

Quill meanwhile finds out that there was a secret passage to Stroganoff’s office, the obvious solution to what had begun as a locked room mystery, and that this was known by almost everyone apart from Stroganoff himself. And then Rabinovich is murdered, just after Gustave had released his two original suspects, leading him to blame Quill for having insisted on that and thus allowing them to kill again.

Soon afterwards Dyrakova arrives, and the town is full of posters announcing that she will appear in the casinos, elaborate posters for either one, since Stroganoff is determined that she will dance for him, and if she does not come willingly, he has devised a scheme to make her do so unwillingly. So, though Buttonhooke has her taken off to his yacht immediately she arrives at the station, Quill along with Arenskaya gets her into a launch and to Stroganoff’s casino, where she performs to tumultuous applause, not knowing for whom she is dancing.

When Quill asked her about the diamonds, she said she had sold them long ago, and that gave Quill the solution to the mystery. Rabinovich had known about this, and Artishok had killed him to prevent Sadie learning it from him, he had killed Citrolo who had recognized him for an accomplished card sharper, not a Russian prince at all. But before he is arrested, he gets away in a boat, and the police launch that pursues him is on the point of catching him up when it runs out of petrol.

Again, lots of excitement, and entertaining references  – Gustave grows marrows – and if not quite as brilliant as its predecessor, Casino was certainly a delightful read.

Continue Reading

Features

The challenge of being positive about SAARC

Published

on

The RCSS forum addressed by SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar in progress. (Pic courtesy RCSS)

It was a few years back that a former President of Sri Lanka took it on himself to pronounce SAARC ‘dead’. Since then there have been other sections of Sri Lankan opinion that have joined the critics of SAARC and taken the solemn stance that SAARC has indeed died what may be called a natural death.

Their fatalism is understandable. SAARC has failed to meet at heads of government or state level for the past several years to take the SAARC process notably forward. Regional cooperation has more or less been only an appealing idea. No substantive concrete projects have taken off to make the idea a hard reality. ‘Inner paralysis’ seems to be SAARC’s lot. Hence the fatalism in these circles.

However, being one of the worst cash-strapped regions of the world and a teemingly populated one with people virtually left to their devices, what choices do the ‘SAARC Eight’ have other than to try their best to band together and continue with their cooperation efforts, however small they may be?

There is no escaping the mounting debt trap for many of these countries and bankrupt Sri Lanka is a glaring example, but ‘throwing in the towel’ and abandoning themselves entirely to the diktats of the strongest economies and their agencies will prove a ‘living death’ for many countries in the SAARC fold.

The gains may be meagre but giving-up on SAARC cooperation in full would prove self-defeating for the organization and South Asia. Right now, the collective intention ought to be to salvage what the region could from the tenuous cooperative efforts. Moreover, such initiatives could go some distance to generate a degree of goodwill among the Eight and help in sustaining a dialogue process.

Given this backdrop it proved ‘a stich in time’ for the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo, to recently host the SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar to a round table discussion on the unifying potential of SAARC and its future possibilities, besides other related issue areas.

Held on June 24th and moderated by RCSS Executive Director and former ambassador Ravinatha Aryasinha, the forum brought together a vibrant, wide ranging audience comprising academicians, diplomats, senior public servants, civil society activists and many others. Following the presentation by Ambassador Golam Sarwar titled, ‘Reigniting SAARC: Achievements, Challenges and the Way Ahead’, a lively Q&A followed.

The above forum could be described as an act of lighting the proverbial ‘candle’ rather than ‘cursing the darkness.’ It surely is a ‘darkness’ that could be seen as daunting considering that the region’s pivotal powers, India and Pakistan, are failing to act in a spirit of accord but are engaged in bitter finger-pointing on a number of questions of vital importance to SAARC.

On the other hand, what is the rest of the region doing to bring the above sides together? It is disappointing that to date the rest of SAARC has failed to launch a major diplomatic drive to bring peace between the feuding regional heavyweights. It needs to act without delay and establish its earnestness and this effort would need to prove SAARC’s staying power in the unfolding months and even years.

In assessing SAARC’s seeming failure local opinion in particular has failed to factor in what could be described as weak leadership. Since Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of Bangladesh, the founding father of SAARC, the region has failed to produce a visionary leader who could advance the SAARC cause with charisma and drive.

Among other reasons, weak leadership accounts considerably for the faltering and stuttering status, as it were, of SAARC. Badly needed are leaders who could go the extra mile, think less of narrow national interests and work diligently towards the collective well being of the region but SAARC’s millions of ordinary people have been made to wait in vain for leaders of such stature. Instead, they have been burdened with politicians who seem to be relishing the apparently moribund state of SAARC.

Looking back, it could be said that it was the dynamic leadership factor that led to the launching of the Non-Aligned Movement and for its sustenance for a few decades. True, it could be seen in some quarters that NAM is no more, but as in the case of SAARC, the former too has been unfortunate to be burdened over the years with politicians who lack the vision and drive to unflaggingly advance the fortunes of the South. NAM and SAARC lack the dynamism and vision of leaders of the stature of Jawaharlal Nehru, for example, to give them the required guidance and intellectual depth.

The reasons are complex for there not being among us currently political leaders with the vision and the steadfast commitment to advance the legitimate interests of the South. However, it could be stated with conviction that the majority of Southern leaders have too easily caved in to the demands of the global North and its financial agencies.

These leaders have failed to see, for instance, that the largely market economy oriented Northern governments would not view with favour a centrist economic model that attaches priority to the interests of the dis-empowered publics of the South. This realization ought to have dawned on the current government in Sri Lanka, for instance, some while ago but it has no choice but to abide by IMF dictates since economic survival at present is unthinkable without the latter’s succour.

Accordingly for SAARC this should be the time for some soul-searching. Priority needs to be attached to ending the feuding between India and Pakistan since at present the material fortunes of the region hinge largely on these regional giants giving peaceful relations among them a try. This is no easy challenge to meet but some daring, visionary diplomacy needs to take hold among the rest of SAARC.

There is some sense in SAARC bringing the peoples of the region together through programs that address their best collective interests. A meeting of minds among SAARC nations could enable SAARC and its agencies to build a region-wide people’s movement for progressive political and economic change that could in turn lead to the region’s political leaders sensitizing themselves more to the neglected needs of their publics.

However, the time is ‘now’ for the initiation of these progressive changes and the voice of SAARC well wishers would need to drown out those of their critics.

Continue Reading

Trending