Business
Crunch time just about to descend upon Sri Lanka
Repaying foreign debt or financing essential imports?
The available foreign reserves of the country can be used to either repay foreign creditors or to finance imports of essential goods and services required by its citizens. This is the dilemma facing Sri Lanka today.
Repaying the full value of the bond using the limited foreign reserves available would provide a windfall gain to those currently holding these bonds.1 But it will be at great cost to the citizens of the country who will face shortages of essentials like food, medicine, and fuel.
In these circumstances, it is in the best interest of all its citizens, for the government to defer payment of the US dollar 500 million International Sovereign Bonds
(ISB) coming due on 18 January 2022, until the economy can fully recover and rebuild.
Just as an individual with co-morbidities is more vulnerable to develop severe illness if infected with COVID-19 and more to likely require hospitalisation and even treatment in an ICU, Sri Lanka was vulnerable to economic shocks long before COVID-19 struck. The country was already facing several macroeconomic challenges. Muted economic growth. An untenable fiscal position. Although a tough consolidation programme was put in place to bring government finances to a more sustainable path, sweeping tax changes implemented at the end of 2019 reversed this process, with adverse consequences to government revenue collection. Weak external sector due to high foreign debt repayments and inadequate foreign reserves to service these debts.
COVID-19 only exacerbated these macroeconomic challenges. And like a patient who gets over the worst of COVID-19 has a long road to recovery; the economy of Sri Lanka faces many challenges to get back on track.
The onset of COVID-19 in early 2020, only worsened an already grim macroeconomic situation. The country lost the confidence of international markets, and the ability of the sovereign to rollover its external debt became difficult if not impossible. In these circumstances, there was a solid argument for a sovereign debt restructuring. But the response from the government and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) was a firm “No”.
The argument was that Sri Lanka never defaulted on its debt and it was not going to do so now. The official position was also that the government had a ‘plan’ to repay its debt and hence there was no reason to engage in a debt restructuring exercise. However, Sri Lanka faced high debt sustainability risks: the debt to GDP ratio at 110% was one of the highest historically and interest payments to government revenue at over 70% was one of the highest in the world.
Fast forward to 2022. The country’s foreign reserves declined to US $ 3.1 billion.2 Useable reserves are much lower. CBSL has sold over US $ 200 million of the country’s gold reserves to meet its debt obligations. In the first week of 2022, CBSL announced further swap facilities and its commitment to repay the International Sovereign Bond (ISB) of US $ 500 million due in January.
According to statistics from the Central Bank, in addition to the ISB payment, there are pre-determined outflows from foreign reserves amounting to US $ 1.3 billion in the first two months of 2022. Further, based on trade data for the last 5 years, the country on average has a trade deficit of around US $ 2 billion to finance during the first quarter of the year (see Table 1). With expected inflows from tourism under threat with the onset of the Omicron variant and continuing decline in worker remittances, financing this external current account deficit will add further pressure on available foreign reserves. India which accounted for around 20% of recent tourist arrivals is now requiring returnees to the country to quarantine. This will likely further dampen tourist arrivals.
In this context, the country faces a trade-off between using its limited foreign reserves to repay its debt or utilising it to finance essential imports. US $ 500 million is sufficient to finance imports of fuel for five months; or pharmaceuticals for one year; or dairy products for one and a half years of; or fertilizer for two years.
See table 1: Summary of External Sector Performance Q1 – 2017 to 2021 (US $ mn)
Therefore, it is in the best interest of the country and its citizens for the government to defer payment on its debt and use its limited foreign reserves to ensure uninterrupted supply of essential imports. But this requires a plan. To minimise the cost to the economy, the government must immediately engage its creditors in a debt restructuring exercise. This will require a debt sustainability analysis (DSA) by a credible agency to identify the resources required for debt relief and the economic adjustment needed to put the country back on a sustainable path.3 This will be critical to bring creditors to the negotiating table and provide them comfort that the country is able and willing to repay its debt obligations in the future.
The cost of not restructuring is much higher. A non-negotiated default (if and when the country runs out of options to service its debt) would lead to a greater loss of output, loss of access to financing or high cost of future borrowing for the sovereign. It could even spill over to the domestic banking sector, triggering a banking or financial crisis.
The consequences are clear. What will we choose?
Dr. Roshan Perera is a Senior Research Fellow at the Advocata Institute and the former Director of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana is the Chair of the Academic Programme at Advocata Institute and the former Economic Adviser at the World Bank. He was the Director and the main author of the 1987 World Development Report on Trade and Industrialisation.
The Advocata Institute is an Independent Public Policy Think Tank. Learn more about Advocata’s work at www.advocata.org.
Business
At Asia’s crossroads, Sri Lanka must decide how it will join the future
In the ancient Silk Road city of Samarkand, where merchants once connected civilisations through trade and ideas, a new conversation unfolded from 3–6 May at the 59th Annual Meetings of the Asian Development Bank.Political leaders, central bank governors, investors, innovators and development partners gathered under a compelling theme: “Crossroads of Progress: Advancing the Region’s Connected Future.”
The message resonating across the forum was unmistakable. Asia and the Pacific are entering a decisive decade in which connectivity, technology and regional cooperation will shape economic power and social resilience. Supply chains are being redesigned. Artificial intelligence is transforming productivity. Energy systems are becoming increasingly interconnected. Financing models are evolving to accommodate climate pressures and development needs. Countries that move quickly and cohesively are likely to benefit from this transformation. Those trapped in internal fragmentation risk falling behind.
The Annual Meetings demonstrated that the future envisioned by the ADB is no longer theoretical. Across the region, governments are already repositioning themselves to participate in a more integrated Asian economy. Discussions focused heavily on cross-border infrastructure, digital innovation, energy interconnection, sustainable finance and regional policy harmonisation.
One recurring theme was that “integration is power.” In an era marked by geopolitical uncertainty and economic disruption, regional cooperation is increasingly viewed as the foundation of resilience. From trade corridors and logistics systems to energy-sharing mechanisms such as the ASEAN Power Grid, policymakers emphasised that countries can no longer afford to operate in isolation.
The conversations in Samarkand also reflected how development itself is being redefined. Data, digital infrastructure and artificial intelligence are becoming as important as roads, ports and airports. Governments across Asia are already deploying AI-enabled public services, fintech systems, smart agriculture and real-time disaster response technologies to improve efficiency and social inclusion.
Equally important was the recognition that public financing alone will not be enough to meet the region’s ambitions. The ADB repeatedly stressed the need for innovative financing mechanisms capable of mobilising private capital while strengthening domestic fiscal systems. Climate adaptation, energy transition and infrastructure expansion will require development finance that is scalable, catalytic and capable of attracting long-term investor confidence.
For Sri Lanka, the discussions carried particular significance.
Having emerged from one of the gravest economic crises in its post-independence history, Sri Lanka today stands at a delicate juncture. The country possesses many of the advantages needed to participate meaningfully in Asia’s next growth phase: strategic geographic positioning, human capital, maritime access and longstanding relationships with multilateral institutions such as the ADB. Yet the gap between potential and preparedness remains considerable.
While many Asian economies appear to have moved toward greater institutional maturity and long-term policy coordination, Sri Lanka continues to wrestle with recurring political instability, governance concerns, debt restructuring pressures and inconsistencies in economic policymaking. Questions surrounding legal processes, public sector reforms and policy continuity continue to affect investor confidence and national coherence.
The challenge facing Sri Lanka is therefore not merely economic. It is fundamentally institutional and political.
The larger Asian story unfolding in Samarkand was one of countries aligning national purpose with regional opportunity. Whether through digital transformation, energy integration or climate financing, many nations appear increasingly focused on continuity, coordination and long-term execution. Sri Lanka, by contrast, still appears engaged in resolving foundational questions about governance, accountability and economic direction.
This does not diminish the country’s prospects. Rather, it highlights the urgency of reform and policy harmonisation if Sri Lanka is to become a meaningful participant in the region’s connected future.
The ADB’s vision for Asia is ultimately centered on resilience through cooperation. It is a vision in which countries strengthen themselves not in isolation, but through deeper engagement with regional systems of trade, finance, energy and technology. For Sri Lanka, this presents both an opportunity and a warning.
The opportunity lies in leveraging multilateral partnerships, embracing digital modernisation, strengthening institutional credibility and integrating more deeply into emerging regional networks. The warning is that Asia’s transformation is accelerating. Countries unable to build stable governance structures and coherent development strategies may struggle to capture its benefits.
Samarkand itself offered a symbolic reminder of this reality. Historically, it flourished because it connected worlds. Today, Asia is once again building new networks of connection – digital, financial, infrastructural and geopolitical.
The question confronting Sri Lanka is whether it can align its political will and economic resilience quickly enough to travel alongside the region’s next decade of growth rather than watch it from the margins.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
CBSL and Australia’s S4IE programme partner to advance digital financial literacy for MSMEs
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Australia’s Skills for an Inclusive Economy (S4IE) programme to launch a pilot initiative aimed at enhancing digital financial literacy among micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Recognised as a vital engine of Sri Lanka’s economic recovery and inclusive development, MSMEs stand to benefit from targeted interventions designed to improve access to finance, strengthen institutional coordination, and foster a more supportive enabling environment.
The pilot will test evidence-based approaches, the outcomes of which will inform future policy design and programming. CBSL intends to scale successful measures in collaboration with national and international partners.
Commenting on the partnership, Dr. P. Nandalal Weerasinghe, Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, stated: “This initiative reflects CBSL’s dedication to practical, evidence-based solutions. The pilot enables us to test and refine methodologies that can be expanded over time to deliver sustainable outcomes for MSMEs across the country.”
His Excellency Matthew Duckworth, Australian High Commissioner to Sri Lanka, emphasied the program’s long-term vision: “Australia is pleased to partner with the Central Bank of Sri Lanka on this initiative. From the outset, our focus has been on building systems and partnerships that are both sustainable and scalable, ensuring benefits extend well beyond the pilot phase.”
The initiative aligns with broader efforts to promote inclusive economic growth and strengthen institutional capacity. It reflects Australia’s ongoing partnership with Sri Lanka in support of reforms that advance economic stability, resilience, and shared prosperity.
Representing the Australian High Commission, Zoe Kidd, First Secretary (Development), and R. Sivasuthan, Senior Programme Officer, reaffirmed Australia’s commitment to close collaboration with CBSL. Their aim is to ensure the pilot yields actionable insights and sustainable outcomes, with a clear pathway toward future scaling.
Business
Higher power costs and a weakening rupee set to strain Sri Lankan kitchen budgets
Adding to the existing pressures, the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) has approved a revision of electricity tariffs for the second quarter of 2026, effective from today for users who consume over 180 electricity units. This increase arrives just as the Sri Lankan rupee faces renewed pressure, having recorded a 3.6% depreciation against the US dollar year-to-date. The convergence of a weaker currency and higher power costs creates renewed pressure on the cost of living.
For the average Sri Lankan household, this policy shift is not just a line item on a utility bill; it is a catalyst for a broader inflationary trend. Even before this revision, headline inflation had already shown signs of a sharp ascent, with the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI) surging to 5.4% in April 2026, a stark jump from the 2.2% recorded only a month prior.
This statistical climb is most painfully visible at the local marketplace. At the Narahenpita Economic Centre, the cost of essentials has become highly volatile: beans have climbed to Rs. 700/kg, while carrots have reached Rs. 400/kg. The protein basket is equally strained, with Kelawalla fish priced at Rs. 2,980/kg. With the new electricity tariffs taking effect, the food manufacturing industry now faces fresh overheads for processing, refrigeration, and packaging. These increased costs will inevitably trickle down to the retail shelf, threatening to push these prices even higher.
While global energy markets offered a brief moment of relief with Brent crude prices dipping by over $6 per barrel last week, the domestic impact of a depreciating rupee means that the cost of imported fuel and raw materials remains high.
This invisible pressure, combined with the visible hike in electricity rates, leaves little room for families to breathe.
Despite these immediate challenges, the broader economic framework shows pockets of resilience, according to the Central Bank’s economic indicators. Industrial production in food and apparel grew steadily earlier this year, and the government recorded a notable budget surplus of Rs. 169.7 billion in the first two months of 2026.
However, as the nation moves into the second quarter, the strength of this fiscal discipline will be tested against the lived reality of its citizens. As the new rates come into effect from today, Sri Lankans are left to wait and see just how much further their kitchen budgets can be stretched.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
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