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Chaos and political drama rock Japan’s snap election

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Japanese elections are normally steady and boring affairs.

This snap election was neither.

The dramatic vote follows a political funding corruption scandal, revealed last year, which implicated senior lawmakers from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and cabinet members, tarnishing the party’s image and angering the public.

The electorate made that anger felt in this election and sent a strong message to the LDP, punishing it at the ballot box.

According to best estimates, the LDP, which has been in power almost continuously since 1955, has lost its single party majority in the country’s powerful lower house.

LDP also lost its majority as a governing coalition. Its junior coalition partner Komeito lost several of its seats, including that of its chief, as well, meaning that even with its partner, the LDP is still unable to achieve the 233 seats it needs for a majority.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba made a political gamble, and it backfired.

He and the LDP underestimated the extent of people’s anger and more crucially their willingness to act on it.

But this was the perfect storm – a corruption scandal that saw dozens of the ruling party’s lawmakers investigated for pocketing millions of dollars in proceeds from political fundraising events, while Japanese households struggle with inflation, high prices, stagnant wages and a sluggish economy.

To stay in power, the LDP will now need to form a coalition with other parties it just fought in the election, and it will do so from a position of significant weakness. That means it must enter negotiations and make concessions to survive.

AFP Japan's incoming prime minister Shigeru Ishiba said on September 30 he aimed to call snap elections for October 27, as equities plunged on a strong yen and fears that tax hikes are on the cards
Shigeru Ishiba bows toward the Japanese flag at a press conference when newly elected party leader in September [BBC]

It is hard to overstate how rare this is. The LDP has always enjoyed a safe and steady place in Japanese politics.

The ruling party has a strong track record of governance – and when the opposition did take over in 1993 and 2009, for three years each time, it ended badly.

Since the LDP came back to power in 2012, it managed to win one election after another almost uncontested. There has long been a resignation about the status quo, and the opposition still remains unconvincing to the public.

“I think we (the Japanese) are very conservative,” Miyuki Fujisaki, a 66-year-old voter, told the BBC a few days before the election. “It’s very hard for us to challenge and make a change. And when the ruling party changed once (and the opposition took over), nothing actually changed in the end, that’s why we tend to stay conservative,” she added.

Ms Fujisaki said that she was unsure who to vote for this time, especially with the fundraising corruption scandal hanging over the LDP. But since she has always voted for the LDP, she was going to do the same this election too.

The results of this election tell a bigger story about the state of Japanese politics: A ruling party that has dominated for decades and an opposition that has failed to unite and become a viable alternative when the public needed one.

In this election, the LDP lost their majority. But no one really won.

Japan’s ruling party took a beating at the ballot box – but not a big enough beating that it has been booted out.

Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies, told the BBC that despite voters wanting to hold their politicians accountable through elections “in the minds of the voters there really is no one else” they trust to be at the helm.

In this election, the opposition’s biggest party – the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) – made significant gains. But observers say these results are less about voters endorsing the opposition than about voters’ ire with the LDP.

“This election appears to be about voters who are fed up with a party and politicians they see as corrupt and dirty. But it’s not one where they want to bring about a new leader,” Mr Hall said.

What that leaves Japan with is a weakened ruling party and a splintered opposition.

Japan has long been seen as a beacon of political stability – a safe haven for investors and a reliable diplomatic partner in an increasingly unstable Asia Pacific.

This political chaos in Japan is concerning not just for its public, but also its neighbours and allies.

However the LDP enters power, it will do so weakened, with its hands tied in coalition concessions.

The task of turning the economy around, creating coherent policies for wages and welfare and maintaining overall political stability will not be easy.

Harder still will be regaining the trust and respect of a public weary of politics.

[BBC]



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Motorbike raids on villages kill dozens in Nigeria

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Last month, armed bandits on motorcycles attacked villages in Kwara state, south of the most recent raids [BBC]

Gunmen on motorcycles have killed dozens of people in dawn raids across three villages in north-western Nigeria.

Armed men shot locals dead, set homes alight and abducted an unknown number of people in Niger State, Musa Saidu, head of the State Emergency Management Agency (Sema), told the BBC.

The attacks on Saturday morning occurred near the site of a suspected jihadist massacre earlier this month, in which more than 100 people were killed in a similar ambush.

Armed criminal gangs, known as bandits, have carried out attacks and kidnappings in Nigeria for years, mainly targeting those in the north-west – but reports of attacks in other parts of the country have risen sharply more recently.

Bandits swooped on the village of Tunga-Makeri early in the morning, before striking the nearby villages of Konkoso and Pissa, local officials said.

Police said six people were killed in one incident, and 20 more in the attacks on Konkoso and Pisa.

Officials confirmed at least 29 people had been killed as of Saturday, but Saidu said that death toll could rise.

The number of people abducted is also unknown because many residents fled their homes and ran into the nearby bush or neighbouring communities, he said.

“People are afraid because you can’t tell which community is going to be next,” he added.

A security report cited by AFP news agency said bandits came on 41 motorcycles, each carrying two or three men.

Abdullahi Rofia, a resident of neighbouring Agwara, told the BBC that many displaced people have taken shelter in his community, which was itself attacked two weeks ago.

“People are so traumatised, they no longer go to farm nor do they go to market,” he said.

“The bandits are not interesting in stealing or looting – they are more interested in killing and terrorising locals.”

Authorities have introduced emergency measures, including a restriction on late-night gatherings and a “partial curfew” that bans motorcycle taxis from operating after 20:00 local time (19:00 GMT).

Police confirmed that security teams have been deployed and rescue efforts are ongoing.

Nigeria’s leaders are under pressure to curb violence, with jihadist groups active in the north-west and separatist insurgents based in the country’s south-east.

The US launched Christmas Day strikes targeting Islamist militants in Nigeria’s northern Sokoto state and President Donald Trump warned of further attacks “if they continue to kill Christians”.

Many of the victims of jihadist violence are Muslim, according to organisations monitoring political violence in Nigeria.

A Nigerian official told BBC last month that 200 suspected bandits had been killed in an operation in the central Kogi state.

It came after more than 250 children and staff were abducted from a Catholic school in Papiri, in one of the largest recent mass-kidnappings. Their release was later secured.

[BBC]

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Rubio says US and Europe ‘belong together’ despite tensions

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The US Secretary of State signalled the Trump administration wants to strengthen ties with the continent during a speech in Munich [BBC]

Marco Rubio has assured European leaders the US does not plan to abandon the transatlantic alliance, saying its destiny “will always be intertwined” with the continent’s.

The US secretary of state told the Munich Security Conference: “We do not seek to separate, but to revitalise an old friendship and renew the greatest civilisation in human history.”

He criticised European immigration, trade and climate policies, but the overall tenor of the closely-watched speech was markedly different to Vice President JD Vance’s at the same event last year,  during which he scolded continental leaders.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she was “very much reassured” by Rubio’s remarks.

Rubio, the Trump administration’s most senior diplomat, said it was “neither our goal nor our wish” to end the transatlantic partnership, adding: “For us Americans, our home may be in the Western Hemisphere, but we will always be a child of Europe.

“And I am here today to leave it clear that America is charting the path for a new century of prosperity, and that once again we want to do it together with you, our cherished allies and our oldest friends.”

However, he repeated several criticisms repeatedly levelled at Europe by the Trump administration, including describing immigration policies as a threat to civilisation, and saying a “climate cult” had taken over economic policy.

On trade, he said Europe and the US had “made mistakes together” by adopting a “dogmatic vision of free and unfettered trade”.

He repeated familiar calls from the US for Europe to invest more in defence, saying: “We want allies who can defend themselves so that no adversary will ever be tempted to test our collective strength.”

In response, von der Leyen said: “Rubio is a good friend, a strong ally. And this was, for me, very reassuring to listen to him.”

She continued: “We want a strong Europe. And this is, I think, the message of today.”

Elsewhere in his half-hour address, Rubio said the system of international co-operation “must be rebuilt” and singled out the UN for particular criticism, saying it had “played virtually no role” in resolving the Gaza and Ukraine conflicts.

He also said the organisation was “powerless to constrain the nuclear programme” of Tehran.

In recent weeks, US President Donald Trump has threatened strikes on Iran if a deal to curb its nuclear programme can be reached, as negotiations between the two intensify.

A second round of talks will be hosted by Oman in Geneva next week, the Swiss foreign ministry said on Saturday.

Outside the conference, an estimated 200,000 protesters held a rally against the Iranian government, local police report.

The demonstrators denounced the country’s leadership, following the government crackdown on January’s protests in which thousands of people were killed.

AFP via Getty Images A sea of protesters are stood together to denounce the Iranian government. Many of them are carrying the Iranian flag and posters of Reza Pahlavi, who is a political activist and Iranian dissident in exile. The sky is grey behind them.
Outside the Munich Security Conference, a large crowd of protesters gathered to denounce the Iranian government [BBC]

Rubio also said the US did not know whether the “Russians are serious about ending the war” in Ukraine, before adding: “But we’re going to continue to test it.”

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky told the conference later on Saturday that no one in Ukraine believed his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin would leave the country alone, describing the Russian leader as a “slave to war”.

Zelensky has come under pressure from the White House to hold presidential elections, which have been suspended while the country is under martial law.

Asked about a Financial Times report that his administration was planning for elections as soon as May, Zelensky said it was “something new to me” and repeated that “nobody supports elections during the war”.

He said that Ukraine would need “two months of ceasefire” and “security infrastructure” to safely conduct elections.

[BBC]

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Two Britons among three dead in French Alps avalanche

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Two Britons and one French person have died in an avalanche in the French Alps on Friday.

The British pair were part of a group of five people skiing off-piste with an instructor in the Manchet valley, near Val d’Isère, a spokeswoman for the resort told the BBC.

The French national was skiing alone when the avalanche struck at 11:30 local time (10:30 GMT), Albertville prosecutor Benoit Bachelet said in a statement announcing the deaths.

Another British person has minor injuries, he added.

A spokesperson for the Foreign Office told the BBC they are aware of the death of the two British men and they are “in contact with the local authorities and stand ready to offer consular assistance”.

A manslaughter investigation has now been launched by the Albertville public prosecutor’s office and will be carried out by CRS Alpes mountain rescue police.

The ski instructor, who was unharmed, tested negative after taking alcohol and drug tests, according to Bachelet.

Val d’Isère already experienced avalanches this winter, with one person dying in the resort of Tignes nearby last month.

France’s national weather service had issued a red alert for avalanche risk across the Savoie region on Thursday, which was then lifted on Friday. But the risk level remained high across the Alps with “very unstable snow cover”.

The avalanche comes in the wake of Storm Nils, which passed through France the day before, leaving between 60cm and 100cm of snow, the weather service said.

There have been a number of fatal avalanches in the region in recent weeks, including the death of a British man off-piste skiing   at the La Plagne resort in January.

“We have had some very complicated, very unstable snow since the beginning of the season,” Luc Nicolino, slopes manager at La Plagne, told AFP.

“It’s a kind of mille-feuille with many hidden, fragile layers.”

[BBC]

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