A jumbo conundrum

Thursday 27th August, 2020

Indian Congress leader Sonia Gandhi has outfoxed a group of party rebels who reportedly strove to oust her. She has had herself appointed the Congress Interim Leader pending a party overhaul. She seems to have taken a leaf out of UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe’s book. Having thus battened down the hatches, both Sonia and Ranil are waiting for political storms to blow over. They are adept at political escapology.

Many are those who aspire to the post of UNP leader. Some of them have tossed their hats in the ring, and prominent among them is former Speaker Karu Jayasuriya, who endeared himself to average UNPers by standing up to President Maithripala Sirisena and Mahinda Rajapaksa and foiling their attempt to capture power in Parliament, in late 2018. He is also the darling of the western members of the international community and a section of the Maha Sangha.

Wickremesinghe has reportedly said Jayasuriya, who is not a member of the UNP Working Committee, cannot be the party leader. Several prominent Buddhist monks are cranking up pressure on Wickremesinghe to appoint Jayasuriya the party leader. Theirs is an exercise in futility, we reckon.

One may recall that four Mahanayake Theras jointly wrote to Wickremesinghe, in December 2011, urging him to settle the UNP’s leadership struggle by appointing Jayasuriya the party leader. The signatories to the letter were Mahanayake of the Malwatte Chapter Most Ven. Tibbotuwawe Sri Siddhartha Thera, Mahanayake of the Asgiriya Chapter Most Ven. Udugama Rathanapala Buddharakkhitha Thera, Mahanayake of the Ramanna Chapter Most Ven. Weveldeniya Madhalankkara Thera and Mahanayake of the Amarapura Chapter Most Ven. Dauldena Gnanissara Thera. But Wickremesinghe did not accede to their request. (However, he, to his credit, brought down the mighty Rajapaksa government and became the Prime Minister four years later.) It is therefore highly unlikely that Wickremesinghe will heed appeals from lesser monks.

Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa’s silence is puzzling. With 54 SJB MPs and the majority of the UNP’s rank and file on his side, he is now in a position to smash through the weakened defences of Wickremesinghe, unlike in the past. In fact, that is what the SJB kept saying before the recent general election. Its heavyweights vowed to march on Sirikotha and get rid of the Ranil faction, first thing after the polls. Why are they holding back? Is Sajith waiting till the UNP rolls out the red carpet for him? One of his trusted lieutenants, MP Nalin Bandara Jayamaha, has said the UNP should stop looking for ‘antiques’ (meaning aged politicians) to lead it as the rightful heir to its leadership is in the SJB.

Sajith is apparently in two minds. His party, the SJB, is strong and the UNP is lying supine with no prospect of regaining its former self in the foreseeable future. But a seasoned politician, Sajith cannot be unaware of the political reality. The SJB has fared reasonably well electorally as a newly formed party, but it will have its work cut out to keep its support base intact in case of the revival and revitalisation of the UNP under a new leader; it will lose a sizeable chunk of its vote bank to the UNP in such an eventuality. At the recent parliamentary polls, a majority of traditional supporters of the UNP voted for the SJB as they wanted to punish the UNP leadership and not the party; many of those who did so are likely to back the UNP again under a new leader.

Sajith has said it took a couple of years for the SLPP to emerge a formidable political force, but the SJB has done so within a couple of months. However, the fact remains that the SLPP has become an established political party with a solid vote bank, and the SLFP has chosen to play second fiddle to it because of the former’s popular and strong leadership and strength. The SLFP would have been in the same predicament as the UNP if it had gone it alone at the parliamentary polls instead of riding piggyback on the SLPP. The SLPP has consolidated its power by winning three elections in a row—local government, presidential and parliamentary—with huge majorities. The same cannot be said of the SJB. Most of all, the UNP cannot be written off.

Sajith must be finding it difficult to make up his mind. But he will have to decide soon.