by Aravinthan Arunthavanathan

It was a glorious summer evening down under in 2014 December. The Australians breathed a sigh of relief, while the Indian counterparts were left gasping for breath. The stand in skipper had committed the unthinkable. Pulling a long hop straight into the hands of deep midwicket, in the fourth innings of a high-profile Test. That shot could have cost the leadership and may be even the place of the player concerned in the past, but in this case it did not. In fact, it turned out to be a moment which defined the brand of cricket India pledged to play under the leadership of Virat Kohli.

As Kohli walked off the ground distraught, he had lost the battle, but India under Kohli were preparing to win the war. Under Kohli they would not settle for anything less than a victory. The prince waiting in the wings to take over from M.S. Dhoni had walked the talk that day.

Since the turn of 2015, India became an embodiment of excellence driven by aggression. It is no surprise they topped the tables at the end of the World Test Championship cycle. They are an invincible force in their backyard which alone would have guaranteed this place at the start of the cycle. Having seen the way they came back from behind to win the Test series down under in 2020/21, which in fact was rated by ICC as the best Test series ever to have taken place, no one would doubt whether they deserve to be in the finals.

India’s opponents on the contrary are a personification of calmness and values of highest order. If there was a niceness index for overall demeanor, the scale will fail to measure the true value of the Kiwis. But despite being warm in nature, when considering the desire to win they are second to none. Kane Williamson has taken Brendon McCullum’s philosophy forward in his own way.

This was visible in the first Test against England in the recently concluded series. A proactive declaration on the final day with the aim of forcing a result demonstrated what New Zealand cricket is all about. The path of New Zealand to the summit is not as comprehensive as their counterpart’s journey. The highlight is undoubtedly the 2-0 win over India. The series however was closer than what the results suggest.

Mastery of home conditions leading to comprehensive wins against visitors during this period formed the foundation in Kiwis reaching the summit. Two deserved teams with an insatiable desire to win promises, a tantalizing duel in Southampton starting Friday provided a dreaded bubble breach or the English weather do not make an unwelcome entry.

On paper, India should be the favorites on the back of an impressive season, dominated by a great win down under. However, a little bit of reflection will reveal the intricate complexities that can influence the result of this contest.

Both teams are not short of arsenal at their disposal. They are faced with the problem of plenty, especially in the bowling department. The conditions in Southampton will probably provide a perfect balance between bat and ball. With the track routinely having pace and bounce to begin with followed by some degree of wear and tear towards the end combined with fluctuating overhead conditions Southampton promises to be an ideal setting for a high-profile balanced encounter. The swinging ball together with seam has been India’s nemesis. Despite conquering the pace and bounce, India have been exposed in the past when the ball has swung.

The debacle in New Zealand at the start of 2020 is a prime example. How much they have progressed since then is yet to be seen. However at least for the balance of odds India’s coveted line-up is not as strong in England as it is elsewhere.

The Kiwis led by Trent Boult and Tim Southee are masters of swing and seam. Backed by Kylie Jamison and Colin De Grandhomme the Kiwi line-up is well equipped to exploit this weakness in the Indian line up. This duel will be a significant factor in the outcome of this contest.

The Kiwis will be faced with the tough choice of choosing a spinner over most probably Neil Wagner or playing an all-out seam attack. Given the history of the venue and the magnitude of the game, the Kiwis may opt to leave out Wagner and select Ajaz Patel adding the spinning dimension to the attack.

The Kiwi batting line-up in contrast is not the most attractive or celebrated. But there is no doubt regarding their effectiveness. It is a line-up which thrives on resilience than flare. Tom Latham at the top has been consistent across conditions and has been a standout opener in recent times. Kane Williamson and Ross Taylor have struggled in English conditions. With Taylor having an overt deficiency against the incoming delivery, and Williamson not having a good record in England, the Indian seamers would be fancying their chances against the Kiwi batting unit.

The presence of three left-handers in the top order is sure make Ravi Ashwin a trump card. India will not even consider the option of leaving Ashwin out. An inexplicable practice employed in the past to play an additional seamer.

India would look to play Jasprit Bumrah and Ishant Sharma as their lead bowlers. The third seamer’s place will be a toss-up between Mohammed Shami and Mohammed Siraj. While Shami’s experience is invaluable, Siraj has forced into contention with a rapid ascent in stature on the tour down under. Either choice would not have a significant impact as both are extremely efficient.

The threat of Ravindra Jadeja and Ashwin would be a massive threat for the Kiwis. The duo is sure to add value by lengthening the Indian batting line-up too. It is too close to call who has the advantage. The Indian greatness in batting can disintegrate in the face of skillful swing bowling by the Kiwis.

Trent Boult versus Kohli and Rohit Sharma will be riveting duels. Both batsmen would be eager to make amends for their failures in the World Cup semi-final against the same opposition at Old Trafford.

How India’s newest sensations Shubman Gill and Rishabh Pant face their baptism of fire beside the rock solid shielding of Ajinkya Rahane and Cheteshwar Pujara, promises enthralling entertainment. The resilient Kiwi batting can find the high-quality Indian attack too difficult to handle. Ross Taylor overcoming his technical glitch and leading the Kiwis to a world title, first in more than two decades would be a fairy tale ending to one of New Zealand’s modern greats.

Kane Williamson would be more than eager to set his record straight in England and there can not be a better platform than a World Test Championship final. It could go either way. There is absolutely nothing to distinctly differentiate both the teams. Only time would reveal who emerges victorious. India since their 2011 triumph, have experienced a trophy drought despite showing remarkable dominance across formats. The desire for an ICC trophy is on the verge turning into despair.

Kiwis deserve to win at least for the criminal injustice they encountered in the 2019 World Cup final. However, the cricketing world would know the impact of an Indian win in a newly introduced tournament. One need not look beyond the 2007 World T20 see the commercial upside, such a prospect holds. Irrespective of who holds the title at the end of the game, the common fan could be assured that it has all the ingredients to be a battle for the ages.

(The writer’s blog can be found at “Cricketing perspectives” on facebook)