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Renewable energy share in power generation – President misled by advisers

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by Dr. Janaka Ratnasiri

A press release issued by the President’s Media Division on 14.09.2020 says that plans should be made to generate 70% of the country’s overall electricity requirements from renewable energy (RE) sources by 2030. This is a deviation from the target of 80% given for the same purpose in the President’s manifesto seeking peoples’ mandate for the Presidency. Obviously, the President has been misled by his advisers saying that the 80% target cannot be achieved.

PRESIDENT OFFICE PRESS RELEASE ON ELECTRICITY GENERATION

The press release gives a summary of decisions taken at a meeting held on 14.09.2020 where the future plans of the State Ministry of Solar Power, Wind and Hydro Power Generation (SW&H Power) were discussed by the President with the State Minister of SW&H Power, Minister of Power, Secretaries to the President and the Ministers, heads of stake holder organizations and representatives of the RE industry.

The President had said the countries world over are moving away from fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum oil towards renewable energy sources in order to arrest the anticipated climate change. He has pointed out that Sri Lanka should adopt renewable energy sources wherever possible enabling the future generations to enjoy the benefits of sustainable development. He has further said that the government has granted the highest priority for RE projects and directed the President’s Secretary to issue a circular to all institutes informing them of this decision and seeking their assistance.

Among the other matters discussed were installation of solar PV panels on roof-tops in government schools, factories and other government establishments, building wind energy projects at Mannar, Pooneryn and Siyambalanduwa and the need to remove barriers for the private sector to invest on RE projects.

 

PREVIOUS CABINET DECISIONS AND PLANS ON RE PROJECTS

 

The Government during 2016-18 has decided to install roof-top Solar Power plants with capacity up to 1000 MW by 2025 on a war footing (Soorya Bala Sangramaya) (Cabinet decision on 09.08.2017). The Cabinet on 02.05.2017 has approved the allocation of LKR 300 million to install roof-top solar panels in government establishments, which was followed up by another decision taken on 05.12.2017 in which approval was granted to award contracts for their establishment in 63 Government hospitals, 13 Government schools and 01 Divisional Secretariat Division.

Cabinet approvals were granted on 16.12.2016 for building a Solar Power Park of capacity 100 MW in Siyambalaanduwa, on 28.02.2017 for building a 100 MW capacity Floating Solar Power Energy Plant at Madura Oya Reservoir and on 23.05.2017 for building a 240 MW Wind Power and an 800 MW Solar Power Hybrid Energy Park at Pooneryn. Other than carrying out some preliminary investigations, nothing firm including sourcing investors or necessary approvals has been undertaken.

 

CURRENT SHARE OF RENEWABL ENERGY IN THE SYSTEM

 

The current power system in Sri Lanka comprises a mix of thermal power plants, both oil and coal fired, hydropower plants, both major plants and mini-hydro plants and several wind, solar and biomass systems. Their capacities and actual annual energy generated in 2018 are shown in Table 1, with data sourced from CEB’s 2018 Statistical Digest. The average plant factor for each type of power plant (PF) is also shown in the Table 1. (see table 1)

It is seen that the share of RE in the total power generation in 2018 was 45.4%, based on actual energy generated during the year. The average PF for solar panels has been 19.7% while that for wind power plants has been 29.3%. Hence, in estimating energy generation in future RE power plants, an average PF of 20% was assumed for solar panels and 30% for wind power plants. The challenge therefore is to raise the RE share of 45% to 80% within the next 12 years.

The Sustainable Energy Authority of Sri Lanka (SLSEA) which is mandated to promote and regulate the development of RE projects has given in its website a list of RE projects that have been connected to the grid as at 30.06.2020 and also a list of RE projects that have been granted permission. A summary is shown in Table 2 along with the estimated energy generation using plant factors given in Table 1. It is expected that the plants for which permission has been granted will be commissioned by 2030.(See table 2)

 

PLANS FOR FUTURE GENERATION EXPANSION

The CEB prepares once in two or three years a long-term generation expansion (LTGE) plan where the future demand for power during each year of the planning period is first estimated. As per Sri Lanka Electricity (Amendment) Act No. 31 of 2013, the LTGE Plan prepared by the CEB needs the approval of the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) before implementation. The latest approved plan is in respect of 2018-37. A later plan prepared for 2020-39 released in May 2019 is yet to be approved. The capacities of different plant types recommended in the 2020-39 LTGE Plan to be added annually during the period 2020 – 2030 are shown in Table 3. The Annex 8.4 of the Plan gives the estimated generation from each of the plant types and using these, the total generation from RE sources and the total from all sources estimated are also shown in Table 3.(see table 3)

It is seen that the total RE contribution in 2030 will be 11,102 GWh, while the total generation will be 31,738 GWh. This gives the RE share in the total generation as 35.0%. This is a reduction from the 2018 actual value of 45.4 %. This shows that CEB’s planning process has ignored the President’s policy as outlined in his manifesto where he has announced that he wished to have RE sources contributing at least 80% of the total electricity generation by 2030. Instead of showing an increasing trend, the Plan shows a decreasing trend for the RE contribution.

Taking into consideration the contents in the press release issued on 14.09.2020 after having discussions with the State Minister of SW&H Power and officials of stakeholder institutes as given in the introductory paragraph, the writer proposes the following adjustments be made to the energy mix for electricity generation, in order to reverse this trend.

Consider adding 520 GWh for hydropower by building a reservoir below St. Clair’s Falls to utilize water spilling over the Upper Kotmale plant during the daytime and linking it with the existing shaft of the Upper Kotmale power plant, details of which were given in writer’s previous articles.

Retire all diesel operated thermal power plants including the two combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants at Kelanitissa which are running at low efficiency and served their useful life by 2030.

Retire the existing coal power plant at Puttalam as it will be 20 years old by 2030.

Drop the plans for building new coal power plants including the proposed extension to the existing coal plant at Puttalam.

Table 4 gives the generation from each type of plants in 2030 as given in the CEB Plan as well as under the adjusted scenario. The latter shows the total thermal energy generated will be only 6,385 GWh including 489 GWh from CCGT at Kerawalapitiya and 113 GWh from the gas turbines which are retained for peaking purposes. The base load will be met by the five natural gas operated CCGT power plants each with capacity 300 MW having an efficiency over 55%. In order to meet the total demand of 31,800 GWh by 2030 and achieve the target of 80% of RE share, it will be necessary to have at least 20,600 GWh generated from RE sources, that is a 3-fold increase from CEB’s estimate. The question is whether it is technically and financially feasible to achieve this target in 10 years’ time.



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Civilizational dialogue proving a remote possibility as realpolitik rages

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Political leaders at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit 2026. (Photo by PROKOFYEV / POOL / AFP)

Looking back over the years since the 9/11 catastrophe, it could be said that barring former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami no world political leader of note has made an earnest effort to change the nature of global political discourse for the better. Khatami won world acclaim for his pronouncement that the time is right to launch and sustain a ‘Dialogue among Civilizations’.

This was in marked contrast to US political scientist Samuel P. Huntingdon’s epochal theses, formulated in the wake of 9/11 and other global political tumults that the Post Cold War era is essentially one of conflicts among civilizations. That is, people’s identity markers, such as culture and religion, are the prime shaping forces of international conflicts.

From a Political Realism standpoint, Huntingdon’s theory may seem to have gained in credibility over the years but it is Khatami’s pronouncement that has evoked an empathetic response in the hearts and minds of publics world wide. So much so, 2001 was proclaimed by the UN General Assembly as the ‘Year of Dialogue among Civilizations’.

It could be said that the latter proclamation was an endeavour to give back to humans their essential identity of peace-makers. It was an eschewing of the position that war and conflict are central to the human condition and amounted to upholding constructive dialogue among peoples and civilizations as a path to peace.

That things have not worked out in the world in keeping with the expectations of peace makers does not in any way invalidate the thesis that peace is the essential propensity of humans.

If peace-making is seemingly ineffective it is primarily because the path to peace is narrow, tortuous and time-consuming. On the other hand, violence usually misleadingly recommends itself to the human as the more expedient, cost-effective way out of a conflictual situation. However, the ultimate cost of the latter approach is prohibitive because it brutalizes the human beyond recognition.

Some of the evidence is before our eyes. The Trump administration, for example, has, minus much forethought, unleashed what may be described as a ‘quick-fix’ war against Iran but is now finding that it is in a veritable military quagmire in West Asia. The priority for the administration now seems to be a face-saving escape strategy. Such are the costs of the war option.

However, there is no denying that much remains to be done by the world community to bring peoples and cultures together with a view to enabling them to work as one for the cause of a less dangerous world.

Meanwhile, the broad divisions in international politics continue and past political polarities are lingering to the detriment of enhanced international understanding. The East and the West and the South and the North, for instance, are continuing to work in separate collectives, more or less, and no notable efforts are being made by the international community to bring these sides together for the purpose of united constructive action that could usher greater international well being.

The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, 2026, held in Kyrgyztan was a replication of the above broad trends but there were some statements at the forum by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that deserve special scrutiny and comment.

Modi was quoted saying among other things: ‘The land of Gandhi and the land of Buddha share a single message: the path to peace!..We must move away from endless war towards an end to the war. This is essentially for the well being of humanity. A peaceful resolution to all issues at the earliest is the call of humanity, and this is India’s message.’

The above is the language of international peace and unity. It is such language that will help in building bridges among civilizations and advance the cause of world peace. Besides, it will help bring a measure of understanding between North and South.

In this regard, the Trump administration could take a leaf or more from the Modi government. Unless it makes a ‘U turn’, as it were, in the direction of peace and reconciliation it is very unlikely that the US and the world would experience any stability worth speaking of.

Right now the US is savaging the sovereignty of Venezuela. It is a question of the ‘Empire striking back’ but Venezuela is a far cry from Iran. Iran has outsmarted the US on the battle field and is in a position to influence broad trends in the world economy since it still has control over the Hormuz Straits. That is, Iran could exercise a determining influence over world oil, gas and energy prices. In short, the US consumer’s future peace of mind is very much in the hands of Iran.

Given the above backdrop it should have dawned on the US political leadership that working towards cordial relations with Iran is the most advisable option. The US, simply, has too much to lose otherwise.

Likewise, Russia too needs to take a leaf from India. It is plain to see that its invasion of Ukraine is proving totally ineffective. It has not brought any measure of peace for the Russian people. Russia is right now experiencing a rerun of its military misadventure in Afghanistan. On the other hand, sections of the peoples concerned have been victimized and even brutalized.

Accordingly, there needs to be a coming together of democratic opinion worldwide for a fresh consideration of the options facing humanity. There is a dire need for value-based politics to take the place of Realpolitik. Besides, the language of peace and humanity needs to replace current divisive discourse with its stress on polarities and antagonisms.

International organizations of the stature of the UN need to take the lead in spearheading the above initiatives. Right now the UN gives the impression of being a spent force. This columnist hopes that he would be proved wrong on this score because the UN remains the only hope of the poor and victimized. It will be in the interests of all peoples for the UN to rejuvenate itself and dedicate itself increasingly enthusiastically to the cause of international peace.

Whether it be the South or North, dynamic, visionary political leadership and direction emerges as essential. The need is for voices that would espouse peace and accord across boundaries and divisions. For South Asia, India and Pakistan have the potential to fill this lacuna.

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Sri Lanka’s constitutional test: Judicial independence beyond immediate political moment

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Superior Court Complex, Colombo

by Shelton Dharmaratne

Sri Lanka has reached an important constitutional moment.

The proposed 22nd Amendment has moved beyond political debate and into the constitutional process through which its validity will be examined. That development should change the character of the national discussion.

That is understandable in a politically contested environment. But Sri Lanka should now resist reducing a question of constitutional design to a contest over political positions.

The deeper issue concerns the relationship between constitutional reform, judicial independence and public confidence in the institutions of the State.

The Supreme Court will determine the constitutional questions before it. Public commentators should therefore exercise restraint in predicting, interpreting or seeking to influence that determination. But restraint does not require silence. It requires a more rigorous discussion of the institutional principles at stake.

A narrower constitutional question than the political debate suggests

The proposed amendment principally concerns the retirement ages of judges of the Supreme Court and Court of Appeal, together with an increase in the maximum number of judges permitted on the Court of Appeal.

Under the proposal, the retirement age of Supreme Court judges would rise from 65 to 67 and that of Court of Appeal judges from 63 to 65. The maximum number of Court of Appeal judges would also increase from 19 to 24.

Other proposed changes concerning the retirement ages of judges in the lower courts arise under separate legislation. This distinction matters because the public debate has sometimes treated the wider package of judicial reform as though it formed a single constitutional proposal.

Nor should the central issue be reduced to whether retaining experienced judges is inherently good or inherently dangerous. Both propositions are too simplistic.

Sri Lanka faces a substantial burden of pending litigation, and delays in the administration of justice impose significant costs on citizens, businesses and the State. Experienced judges represent an institutional resource. Continuity, accumulated knowledge and familiarity with complex areas of law cannot always be replaced immediately.

Those are legitimate policy considerations.

But the opposing concern is equally important: judicial tenure is not merely an employment condition. It is a structural component of judicial independence.

The real question is institutional

The critical question is not whether an individual judge is capable of acting impartially. It is whether the constitutional structure provides adequate protection against circumstances in which judicial tenure could become connected, directly or indirectly, with political authority.

That is an institutional question, not an accusation against individual judges.

A judge may be entirely conscientious and independent while the institutional arrangements surrounding the judiciary nevertheless create public doubts about independence. Constitutional democracies therefore cannot depend solely on the personal integrity of office-holders. They must construct institutions capable of preserving independence even when governments, individuals and political circumstances change.

This is particularly relevant when constitutional reform concerns the tenure of serving members of the superior judiciary.

The institutional sensitivity of such a proposal should neither be exaggerated into an allegation of improper motive nor dismissed as irrelevant. The appropriate response is transparency, procedural fairness and confidence in constitutional safeguards.

Legitimate objectives do not settle constitutional questions

The government has stated that its objectives include strengthening the administration of justice, addressing delays, retaining judicial experience and increasing institutional capacity.

Those objectives deserve serious consideration. Sri Lanka needs judicial reform. Citizens waiting years for their cases to be concluded experience the justice system very differently from those discussing it in Parliament, courtrooms or universities.

A government is therefore entitled to propose reforms designed to improve judicial efficiency.

But legitimate objectives do not automatically resolve constitutional objections. The relevant question is whether the means chosen are compatible with the constitutional structure and whether sufficient safeguards exist against unintended institutional consequences.

That is precisely why constitutional scrutiny matters.

The concerns of the Bar Association of Sri Lanka (BASL) should likewise be examined without political labelling. Opposition to the proposed changes should not automatically be characterised as opposition to judicial reform or an attempt to obstruct the government. At the same time, invoking judicial independence does not place any argument beyond scrutiny.

The appropriate questions are straightforward:

Does extending judicial tenure strengthen the administration of justice?

What risks, if any, could it create for judicial independence?

Are adequate institutional safeguards in place?

Does the proposal operate prospectively, or does it affect judges already serving?

Could the same objectives be achieved by filling vacancies, increasing judicial capacity, improving court administration and strengthening case management?

These questions can be examined rationally without attributing improper motives to either side.

Judicial vacancies and institutional confidence

Recent concerns raised by the BASL regarding judicial vacancies add another dimension to the debate. The BASL has argued that vacancies in the Supreme Court contributed to the retirement of a senior Court of Appeal judge without promotion to the Supreme Court, despite vacancies having existed. It has also raised concerns regarding forthcoming judicial retirements and the need for timely consideration of appointments.

Such matters should not be treated as evidence of the motives behind the proposed amendment. They do, however, illustrate a broader principle.

Judicial independence is shaped not only by the retirement age written into the Constitution. It is also influenced by how vacancies are filled, how promotions are determined, how seniority and merit are assessed, and whether judicial officers and the public believe that institutional decisions are made according to transparent and defensible criteria.

The government has an opportunity to address these concerns constructively.

Prompt appointments based on publicly defensible principles would strengthen confidence in the judiciary irrespective of the eventual outcome of the constitutional debate.

Seniority, merit and transparent criteria

The controversy also exposes a longstanding question concerning judicial appointments.

Seniority has traditionally carried considerable weight in judicial advancement. Yet seniority alone need not be the sole measure of merit. Conversely, replacing established practices with undefined assessments of “merit” could create another institutional problem.

If governments or appointing authorities can determine which judges are sufficiently meritorious without clear and objective criteria, uncertainty itself may become a source of institutional anxiety.

Sri Lanka would therefore benefit from clearer, objective and defensible standards governing judicial appointments and promotions.

Such standards would protect judges as well as appointing authorities. They would reduce opportunities for favouritism, strengthen institutional confidence and make it harder for political actors to portray every appointment as politically motivated.

Institutional rules are stronger safeguards than assurances of good intentions.

The State is larger than any government

One principle deserves particular emphasis: a government is not the State.

Governments are temporary. The constitutional State is continuing. Political parties change, parliamentary majorities change and political priorities change. The judiciary, however, must continue to function independently of whoever occupies the government benches.

The judiciary is neither a government institution in the political sense nor an Opposition institution. It is an institution of the State whose legitimacy depends upon its independence from both.

For that reason, governments should exercise particular caution when proposing constitutional changes affecting the judiciary, even where the policy objectives are legitimate.

The stronger a government is politically, the greater its responsibility to demonstrate institutional restraint.

That is not political weakness. It is constitutional maturity.

Public confidence is a constitutional asset

The most consequential issue may ultimately be neither retirement age nor judicial capacity, but public confidence.

Courts do not possess political power in the conventional sense. Their authority rests substantially on the acceptance of their decisions as legitimate.

Citizens will sometimes disagree with judicial decisions. But where the judiciary is perceived as independent, even unpopular decisions can command respect. If judicial institutions are perceived as being shaped by political convenience, even legally sound decisions may become vulnerable to suspicion.

Constitutional reform affecting judicial tenure must therefore be evaluated not only by its immediate administrative benefits but also by its effect on institutional credibility.

A reform that produces short-term efficiency while weakening confidence in judicial independence could impose a greater long-term cost. Conversely, reform that improves efficiency while preserving independence can strengthen both justice and public trust.

The challenge is not to choose between judicial efficiency and judicial independence. It is to achieve both.

If a referendum arises …

If the constitutional process ultimately requires approval by the people at a referendum, the debate should rise above the conventional government versus Opposition contest.

The electorate should be given a clear constitutional question and sufficient information to assess it.

Citizens should understand what problem the amendment seeks to address, why the proposed mechanism is considered necessary, what institutional risks have been identified, what safeguards exist and whether alternative measures could achieve the same objectives.

A constitutional referendum deserves a higher standard of public discussion than an ordinary election campaign.

The people would not merely be choosing a political side. They would be deciding the institutional framework within which political power and judicial authority operate.

Beyond who wins

The most important question arising from the proposed Twenty-Second Amendment is therefore not simply whether the government succeeds or whether the Opposition and BASL prevail.

Nor is it ultimately whether judicial retirement ages become 67 and 65 or remain unchanged.

Those are immediate constitutional questions. The deeper issue is what Sri Lanka learns from the controversy.

If the government seeks to modernise and strengthen the justice system, that objective deserves serious consideration. If the BASL and others warn that particular reforms may affect judicial independence, those concerns deserve equally serious examination.

Neither side strengthens the country by assuming that the other is acting in bad faith.

The constitutional system is strongest when legitimate disagreements are resolved through institutions rather than political pressure.

Whatever the eventual constitutional outcome, Sri Lanka will still face the underlying challenges of judicial vacancies, case delays, institutional capacity, judicial appointments and public confidence. Those problems will not disappear with a judicial determination, nor should the national conversation end there.

Sri Lanka should instead seek a broader consensus around a fundamental proposition:

Judicial reform and judicial independence are not competing objectives.

The real challenge is to pursue reform in a manner that strengthens the judiciary without placing its independence under suspicion.

That requires sound legislation, transparent appointments, adequate resources, efficient court administration, responsible political conduct and safeguards capable of surviving changes of government.

The present controversy will eventually pass. Political arguments surrounding it will fade.

But constitutional arrangements can endure for decades.

That is why Sri Lanka must look beyond the immediate political contest.

The ultimate test is not who wins today’s constitutional argument. It is whether, when the political moment has passed, Sri Lanka has a judiciary that is more efficient, more accessible and more trusted—while remaining sufficiently independent to hold every government, including future governments, within the boundaries of the Constitution.

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Farewell to a Fashion Icon

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Chula was very fond of The Island newspaper and kept in touch with us on a regular basis (L) / Chula: Sent us this photo for Glam Scene, just a couple of weeks ago (R)

Sri Lanka’s fashion world lost one of its brightest stars Monday morning – veteran model, actress, and elite pageant trainer Chulpadmendra “Chula” Kumarapathirana.

Her sudden demise has certainly come as a shock to many.

Chula had just completed a major event on Sunday (30th August), and was no more in the land of the living the following day (31st August).

Born in Colombo, she was an old girl of Buddhist Ladies’ College and later studied at the National Institute of Business Management, and has many awesome achievements to her credit.

In 2006, she won the “Miss Tourism Model of the World Press Award” in Tanzania.

She entered the entertainment industry, as an actress, and gained popularity through the teledrama “Wahinna Muthu Wessak.”

Chulpadmendra has been on TV, and many Sri Lankan hip-hop music videos, including “Hanthane” and “Heena Hirimal”, and has had several other minor acting jobs since then.

She hosted the Derana Miss Sri Lanka for Miss World 2008 and even participated in the reality TV show Sirasa Dancing Star.

For over 25 years Chula was active in local and international fashion and founded the Chulpadmendra Catwalk Studio to train young newcomers

She trained hundreds of models for runway, photoshoots, auditions, and international pageants.

She was known as a fierce mentor who believed in “not just learning to walk, but learning to command the runway”.

Many young models called graduating from her studio their “happiest moment.”

Chulpadmendra “Chula” Kumarapathirana: Many young models called graduating
from her studio their “happiest moment.” (L)/ Won the “Miss Tourism Model of the World Press Award” in Tanzania (R)

Chula was very fond of The Island newspaper and kept in touch with us on a regular basis.

Her last message to The Island was a ‘thank you’ note for the article ‘New benchmark in pageant industry’:

“Thank you, Ivan, for writing such a beautiful article about me. Your unwavering support, encouragement, and belief in me throughout my career mean more than words can express. I am truly grateful for your kindness and generosity.

“My heartfelt thanks also go to The Island newspaper for featuring the article. It is a great honour, and I sincerely appreciate the recognition and support.

“Thank you once again.”

In fact, just a couple weeks ago, she sent a photo of herself for our Glam Scene and that picture I publish today, as part of this story.

May she rest in peace. Our deepest condolences to her family, students, and all who loved her.

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