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Plantation sector and foreign exchange crisis

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by Dr. C. S. Weeraratna

csweera@sltnet.lk

It is common knowledge that there is a massive dollar crisis in Sri Lanka, causing a scarcity of many essentials such as fuel, LP gas etc. Governments, instead of implementing any effective plans, obtained loans from foreign sources to solve the foreign exchange crisis. As a result, we have a massive foreign debt burden of about US$ 52 Billion. The cost of debt servicing alone is about US $ 6 billion per year. Our foreign reserve which was around US $ 7 to 8 Billion is now down to well below US $ 1 Billion, If there are no dollars available in the banks in the country, it could result in an acute shortage of medicines and other essential items. Galle Face “Gota go home” and other such protests become the inevitable outcome.

According to Central Bank Annual reports the Trade Deficit ( TD), in Sri Lanka, during 2016-2021 as indicated in Table 1, has remained at high levels, The country has been taking loans to overcome TD but we cannot continue to do so. No country will continue to provide loans to a bankrupt economy. It is necessary that at least now we have an effective plan to reduce the trade deficit by increasing exports and reducing imports as much as possible. If Sri Lanka maintained a sound trade balance, which the present and previous governments should have done, the present exchange rate would not have gone down as we experience at present. If not for the factors such as remittances of migrant workers, tourists’ earnings etc. the exchange rate would be worse. See table 1.

The dire need to increase our export earnings to meet the severe financial crisis we are facing today has been emphasized by many. As indicated in Table 1, export income since 2016 has not increased by any substantial amount in spite of an Export Development Board and numerous other authorities. Increasing export income is of paramount importance to improve our economy. But what are we going to export? .

The contribution of the Plantation sector to export income is substantial. Around 800,000 ha are cultivated with plantation crops tea, rubber, coconut etc. and this sector, in the last few years earned nearly US$ 2.2 billion annually. However, as indicated in table 2, production of these major export crops do not show any substantial increase during the last five years and the contribution from this sector has remained at nearly 20% of the export income. Hence, strategies need to be implemented to increase the productivity of the plantation sector and hence FE earnings. There are many state sector organizations to implement such strategies. See table 2

As shown in Table 2 tea production has been fluctuating around 300 million kg per year during the last six years, in spite of several institutions such as Tea Board, Tea Research Institute and Tea Smallholders Development Authority assigned to the tea sector. The average tea yields are considerably lower than the potential yields. In the smallholder tea sector the average yield is around 1800 kg/ha and in the estate sector it is about 1200 kg/ha. The tea industry, which supports hundreds of thousands of people, also suffered from the controversial utterly foolish decision to ban agrochemicals as a health measure. Though later reversed, the ban has affected the tea sector to a great extent. In 2017 the export income from tea sector was 1.5 billion US$. During the following years it has decreased and in 2020 the corresponding value was 1.2 billion. Lengthy power cuts, fuel shortages too caused the industry to “near total breakdown”, Better management practices in the short term would increase the quantity and quality of the tea produced making it possible to increase FE earnings substantially from the current value.

Rubber is another important export crop. In 2017, it earned nearly US$ 39 million in foreign exchange but has decreased during the following three years. Based on Central Bank annual reports, the total Rubber production in 2017 was 152.9 million kg and by 2019 it has plummeted to 74.8 million kg. The corresponding average yields are 1561 kg/ha and 665 kg/ha respectively. These data related to rubber production by the Regional Plantation Companies and Small holder sector indicate that the productivity of the SH sector has decreased substantially compared to the RPC sector during the period 2010-2017, which may be attributed to poor management in this sector compared to that of the RPC sector. The recently-established Sri Lanka Rubber Secretariat of the Ministry of Plantation Industries came out with the Sri Lanka Rubber Industry Master Plan 2017 – 2026, A National Agenda for Rubber Industry Development of Sri Lanka. This master plan has 24 unrealistic projects which would require investments of approximately U$ 500 million (nearly Rs. 100 billion).

These figures indicate that the Sri Lankan rubber sector is ailing in spite of Rubber Development Dept and Rubber Research Institute assigned to promote rubber production in the country. With the current higher rubber prices it would be possible to earn more FE by increasing rubber production by implementing better management practices which would produce results in the short term. During the last few years the rubber sector has been affected by many factors one of which may be ineffective management.

Coconut production too has declined during the last five years as shown in Table 2. The total extent under coconut in Sri Lanka is around 400,000 ha and about 325,000 ha are small holdings. Annual production of coconut has been fluctuating around 3,000 million nuts, (app. 6000 nuts/ha. If the production of the existing coconut lands is increased by 1000 nuts/ha/year by better management, and applying organic and inorganic fertilizers the total production can be increased by a substantial number within a year which will increase the export income from coconut.

This appalling situation in the plantation sector can be attributed to many factors. If the productivity of this sector is raised, by implementing better management practices it would be possible to increase foreign exchange earnings from this sector. Most of these practices would produce results in the short term.

There are 24 agro ecological zones, each characterised by specific climate and soils. This makes it possible the cultivation of different types of exportable crops such as spice crops, tuberous crops, horticultural (fruit crops) and floricultural crops, medicinal herbs.

Sri Lanka is famous for spices. The most sought-after spice crops are cinnamon, pepper, cloves, cardamoms, nutmeg mace and vanilla which grow in abundance mainly in the wet and intermediate zone. In 2020, the county earned nearly US$ 200 million by exporting spice crops.

Cinnamon is the most important spice. In 2019, it earned around 160 million US$ in FE. The production of cinnamon has been fluctuating around 20,000 t per year during the last few years. Sri Lanka received its first ever Geographical Indication (GI) certification when the European Union (EU) Commission on 02 February,2022 granted GI status to Ceylon Cinnamon and this would make a higher demand for Sri Lanka cinnamon.

Pepper is the second important commodity among spices. It is grown in the wet and intermediate zones mostly as a mixed crop. The Sri Lankan Pepper has higher piperine content which gives it a superior quality and pungency. Annual Production of pepper too has remained stagnant at around 20,000 kg.

Other spices such as cloves, cardamom, nutmeg and mace have the potential to earn a substantial amount of FE. With the increase of international demand for natural products, and the island’s focus on enhancing and evolving its value added range, spices and the essential oils extracted from these crops will continue to earn more FE.

Dehydrated food is another agricultural product which has a potential to earn much wanted FE. During some months there is a glut of fruits and exporting dehydrated/canned fruits would bring in an appreciable amount of FE.

In any programme/plan to increase foreign exchange earnings from the agricultural sector, agro-industries have to be given much emphasis. A large number of crops cultivated in Sri Lanka have considerable potential in various agro-industries. However only rubber, coconut and a few fruit crops are used in industries. Crops such as cassava, horticultural and floricultural crops, medicinal herbs, cane, bamboo, sunflower, castor , Ayurvedic herbs, etc., have a considerable industrial/export potential but are not cultivated to any appreciable extent. Development of agro-industries will also increase export income and will have a tremendous impact on the economy of the country and also provide employment opportunities among rural people. Private sector can be involved in such projects for which appropriate technical assistance need to be given by the relevant public organizations. Although there are many organisations such as the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, Export Development Board, Industrial Development Board, etc., there appears to be no proper long-term plan to develop agro-industries. There are only some ad-hoc projects. The Ministry of Industry and Agriculture should implement an effective Agro-Industrial Development Programme, which undoubtedly would help increase our exports, improve employment opportunities and incomes in the rural areas.



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Opinion

The shadow of a Truman moment in the Iran war

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Wars often produce moments when leaders feel compelled to seek a decisive stroke that will end the conflict once and for all. History shows that such moments can generate choices that would have seemed unthinkable only months earlier. When Harry S. Truman authorised the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, the decision emerged from precisely such wartime pressures. As the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran intensifies today, the world must ensure that a similar moment of desperate calculation does not arise again.

The lesson of that moment in history is not that such weapons can end wars, but that once the logic of escalation begins to dominate wartime decision-making, even the most unthinkable options can enter the realm of strategic calculation. The mere possibility that such debates could arise is reason enough for policymakers everywhere to approach the present conflict with extreme caution.

As the war drags on, both Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu will face mounting pressure to produce decisive results. Wars rarely remain confined to their original scope once expectations of rapid victory begin to fade. Political leaders must demonstrate progress, military planners search for breakthroughs, and public narratives increasingly revolve around the need for a conclusive outcome. In this environment, media speculation about “exit strategies” or “off-ramps” for Washington can unintentionally increase pressure on decision-makers. Even well-intentioned commentary can shape the climate in which leaders make decisions, potentially nudging them toward harder, more dramatic actions.

Neither the United States nor Israel lacks the technological capability associated with advanced nuclear arsenals. The nuclear arsenals of advanced powers today are far more sophisticated than the devices used in 1945. While their existence is intended primarily as deterrence, prolonged wars have historically forced strategic communities to examine every available option. Even the discussion of such possibilities is deeply unsettling, yet ignoring the pressures that produce such debates can be dangerous.

For that reason, policymakers and societies on all sides must recognise the full range of choices that prolonged wars can place before leaders. For Iran’s leadership and its wider strategic community, absorbing this reality may be essential if catastrophic escalation is to be avoided. From Tehran’s perspective, the conflict may well be seen as existential. Yet history also shows that wars framed as existential struggles can generate the most dangerous strategic decisions.

The intellectual climate in Washington has also evolved. A number of influential voices in Washington now argue that the United States has become excessively risk-averse and that restoring global credibility requires a more assertive posture. Such arguments reflect a broader shift toward the language of renewed deterrence and strategic competition. Yet this very logic can make it politically harder for leaders to conclude conflicts without visible demonstrations of strength.

The outcome of this conflict will also be watched closely by other major powers. In 1945, the atomic decision was shaped not only by the desire to end a brutal war but also by the strategic message it sent to rival states observing the emergence of a new geopolitical era. Today, other significant powers will similarly draw lessons from how the United States manages both the conduct and the conclusion of this conflict.

This is why cool judgment is essential at this stage of the war. Whether the original decision to go to war was wise or ill-advised is now largely beside the point. Once a conflict has begun, the overriding priority must be to prevent escalation into something far more dangerous.

In such moments, the international system can benefit from the quiet diplomacy of actors that retain a degree of strategic autonomy. Among emerging nations, India stands out as a major emerging power in this regard. Despite its energy dependence on the Gulf and deep economic engagement with the United States, India has consistently demonstrated a capacity to maintain independent channels of communication across geopolitical divides.

This unique positioning may allow New Delhi to explore, discreetly and without public fanfare, avenues for de-escalation with Washington, Tel Aviv and Tehran alike. At moments of heightened tension in international politics, the world sometimes requires what might be called an “adult in the room”: a state capable of engaging all sides while remaining aligned exclusively with none.

If the present conflict continues to intensify, the value of such diplomacy may soon become evident. The most important lesson from 1945 is not only the destructive power of nuclear weapons but the pressures that can drive leaders toward choices that later generations struggle to comprehend. History shows that when wars reach their most desperate phases, restraint remains the only safeguard against catastrophe.

(Milinda Moragoda is a former Cabinet Minister and diplomat from Sri Lanka and founder of the Pathfinder Foundation, a strategic affairs think tank, can be contacted via email@milinda. This was published ndtv.com on 2026.03.1

by Milinda Moragoda

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Opinion

Practicality of a trilingual reality in Sri Lanka

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Dr. B.J.C. Perera (Dr. BJCP) in his article ‘Language: The symbolic expression of thought’ (The island 10.03.2026) delves deeper into an area that he has been exploring recently – childhood learning. In this article he writes of ‘a trilingual Sri Lanka’, reminding me of an incident I witnessed some years ago.

Two teenagers, in their mid to late teens, of Muslim ethnicity were admitted to the hospital late at night, following a road traffic accident. They had sustained multiple injuries, a few needing surgical intervention. One boy had sustained an injury (among others) that needed relatively urgent attention, but in itself was not too serious. The other had also sustained a few injuries among which one particular injury was serious and needed sorting out, but not urgently.

After the preliminary stabilisation of their injuries, I had a detailed discussion with them as to what needed to be done. Neither of them spoke Sinhala to any extent, but their English was excellent. They were attending a well-known international school in Colombo since early childhood and had no difficulty in understanding my explanation – in English. The boys were living in Colombo, while their father would travel regularly to the East (of Sri Lanka) on business. The following morning, I met the father to explain the prevailing situation; what needs to be done, urgency vs. importance, a timeline, prioritisation of treatment, possible costs, etc.

Doctor’s dilemma

The father did not speak any English and in conversation informed me that he had put both his boys into an International School (from kindergarten onwards) in order to give them an English education. The issue was that the father’s grasp of Sinhala was somewhat rudimentary and therefore I found that I could not explain the differences in seriousness vs, urgency and prioritisation issues adequately within the possible budget restrictions. This being the case and as the children understood exactly what was needed, I then asked the sons to ‘educate’ the father on the issues that were at hand. The boys spoke to their father and it was then that I realised that their grasp of Tamil was the same as their father’s grasp of Sinhala!

In the end I had to get down a translator, which in this case was a junior doctor who spoke Tamil fluently; explained to him what was needed a few times as he was not that fluent in English, certainly less than the boys, and then getting him to explain the situation to the father.

What was disturbing was having related this episode at the time to be informed that this was not in fact not an isolated occurrence. That there is a growing number of children that converse well in English, but are not so fluent in their mother tongue. Is English ‘the mother tongue’ of this ‘new generation’ of children? The sad truth is no and tragically this generation is getting deprived of ‘learning’ in its most fundamental form. For unfortunately, correct grammar and syntax accompanied with fluency do not equal to learning (through a language). It is the natural process of learning two/three languages (0 to 5 years) that Dr. BJCP refers to as being bilingual/trilingual and is the underlying concept, which is the title of Dr. BJCP’s article ‘Language: The symbolic expression of thought’.

“Introduction into society”

It is critical to understand at a very deep level the extent and process of what learning in a mother tongue entails. The mother’s voice is arguably the first voice that a newborn hears. Generally speaking, from that point onwards till the child is ‘introduced into society’ that is the voice he /she hears most. In our culture this is the Dhorata wedime mangalyaya. Till then the infant gets exposed to only the voices of the immediate /close family.

Once the infant gets exposed to ‘society’ he /she is metaphorically swimming in an ocean of language. Take for example a market. Vendors selling their wares, shouting, customers bargaining, selecting goods, asking about the quality, freshness, other families talking among themselves etc. The infant is literally learning/conceptualizing something new all the time. This learning process happens continuously starting from home, at friends/relatives’ houses, get-to-gathers, festivals, temples etc. This societal exposure plays a dominant role as the child/infant gets older. Their language skills and vocabulary increase in leaps and bounds and by around three years of age they have reached the so-called ‘language explosion’ stage. This entire process of learning that the child undergoes, happens ‘naturally and effortlessly’. This degree of exposure/ learning can only happen in Sinhala or Tamil in this country.

Second language in chilhood

Learning a second language in childhood as pointed out by Dr BJCP is a cognitive gift. In fact, what it actually does is, deepens the understanding of the first language. So, this-learning of a second language- is in no way to be discouraged. However, it is critical to be cognisant of the fact that this learning of the second language also takes place within a natural environment. In other words, the child is picking up the language on his own. As readily illustrated in Dr. BJCP’s article, the home environment where the parents and grandparents speak different languages. He or she is not being ‘forcefully taught’ a language that has no relevance outside the ‘environment in which the second language is taught’. The time period we (myself and Dr. BJCP) are discussing is the 0 to 5-year-old.

It does not matter whether it is two or three languages during this period; provided that it happens naturally. For as Dr. BJCP states in his article ‘By age five, they typically catch up in all languages…’ To express this in a different way, if the child is naturally exposed to a second /third language during this 0 to 5-year-old period, he /she will naturally pick it up. It is unavoidable. He /she will not need any help in order for this to happen. Once the child starts attending school at the age of 5 or later, then being taught a second language formally is a very different concept to what happens before the age of 5.

The tragedy is parents, not understanding this undisputed significance of ‘learning in/a mother tongue’, during the critical years of childhood-0 to 5; with all good and noble intentions forcefully introduce their child to a foreign tongue (English) that is not spoken universally (around them) i. e., It is only spoken in the kindergarten; not at home and certainly nowhere, where the parents take their children.

Attending school

Once the child starts attending school in the English medium, there is no further (or minimal) exposure to his /her mother tongue -be it Sinhala or Tamil. This results in the child losing the ability to converse in his/her original mother tongue, as was seen earlier on. In the above incident that I described at the start of this article, when I finally asked the father did he comprehend what was happening; his eyes filled with tears and I did wonder was this because of his sons’ injuries or was it because his decisions had culminated in a father and a son/s who could no longer communicate with each other in a meaningful way.

Dr BJCP goes on to state that in his opinion ‘a trilingual Sri Lanka will go a long way towards the goals and display of racial harmony, respect for different ethnic groups…’ and ‘Then it would become a utopian heaven, where all people, as just Sri Lankans can live in admirable concordant synchrony, rather than as a splintered clusters divided by ethnicity, language and culture’. Firstly, it must be admitted from the aspect of the child’s learning perspective (0 to 5 years); an environment where all three languages are spoken freely and the child will naturally pick up all three languages (a trilingual reality) does not actually exist in Sri Lanka.

However, the pleasant practical reality is that, there is absolutely no need for a trilingual Sri Lanka for this utopian heaven to be achieved. What is needed is in fact not even a bilingual Sri Lanka, but a Sri Lanka, where all the Sinhalese are taught Tamil and vice versa. Simply stated it is complete lunacy– that two ethnic communities that speak their own language, need to learn another language that is not the mother tongue of either community in order to understand one another! It is the fact that having been ruled by the British for over a hundred years, English has been so close to us, that we are unable to see this for what it is. Imagine a country like Canada that has areas where French is spoken; what happens in order to foster better harmony between the English and French speaking communities? The ‘English’, learn to speak French and the ‘French’ learn to speak English. According to the ‘bridging language theory of Sri Lanka’, this will not work and what needs to happen is both communities need to learn a third language, for example German, in order to communicate with one another!

Learning best done in mother tongue

eiterating what I said in my previous article – ‘Educational reforms: A Perspective (The Island 27.02.2026) Learning is best done in one’s mother tongue. This is a fact, not an opinion. The critical thing parents should understand and appreciate is that the best thing they can do for their child is to allow/encourage learning in his/her mother tongue.

This period from 0 to 5 years is critically important. If your child is exposed naturally to another language during this period, he /she will automatically pick it up. There is no need to ‘forcefully teach’ him /her. Orchestrating your child to learn another language, -English in this instance- between the ages of 0 to 5 at the expense of learning in his /her mother tongue is a disservice to that child.

by Dr. Sumedha S. Amarasekara

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Opinion

Tribute to Vijitha Senevirathna

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APPRECIATION

On Friday, the 20th of March, Vijitha Senevirathna would have celebrated his 85th birthday if not for his sad passing away nearly a year ago.

The passing of Vijitha was a moment of great sorrow to all who knew him.

He was my classmate from Montessori to pre-university at Maris Stella College, Negombo. As a Maristonian, Vijitha excelled in his academic studies.

Eventually, he entered the Law College and practised as an Attorney-at-Law and Notary Public for over 50 years.

As an Attorney-at-Law, Vijitha earned the respect of the judiciary and a wide circle of clients. He upheld the highest and most cherished values of the legal profession and earned the trust of all who knew him. His 50th anniversary in the noble profession of law was celebrated with much pageantry, amidst a distinguished gathering of friends, relations, clerics, and the rich and famous of Sri Lanka.

Vijitha dearly loved his proud wife Nirmali and his six children, who are in the highest professions in Sri Lanka. He inculcated among his children professional efficiency, diligence, and honesty.

We who associated closely with Vijitha miss his warm friendship, sense of humor, and animated conversation. He was a raconteur, and people gathered around him and listened to his narrations and tales of yore, especially at the many celebrations at his residence in Dehiwala, where the waters of Scotland flowed generously.

I have personally admired Vijitha’s patience, grit, and lifetime achievements, despite a physical dysfunctionality he suffered over his lifetime.

For Vijitha, the song has ended, but the melody lingers on, in the words of the popular composer Irving Berlin.

Merrick Gooneratne

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