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Used cars turn to gold as economy skids on the edge

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By Amal Jayasinghe

Supermarket shelves are bare and restaurants can’t serve meals, but Sri Lanka’s economic crisis is a bonanza for used car dealers, with vehicle shortages pushing prices higher than a house in a nice area.

The island nation of 22 million is on the brink of bankruptcy, inflation is red hot and the government has barred a range of “non-essential” imports to save dollars needed to buy food, medicine and fuel.

In the car market, this two-year ban has kept factory-fresh automobiles off local roads, forcing desperate buyers to pay some of the world’s highest prices for beaten-up compacts and no-frills family sedans.

Anthony Fernando spent a recent weekend coursing through sales lots in the Colombo outskirts on behalf of his daughter, who has tried to find an affordable set of wheels for nearly a year.

“She was thinking that prices will come down,” the 63-year-old told AFP, but now she is “paying for procrastinating”.

Prices have gone “beyond the reach of a common person”, he said.

A five-year-old Toyota Land Cruiser was on offer online for an eye-watering 62.5 million rupees ($312,500) — triple the pre-ban rate, and enough to buy a house in a middle-class Colombo neighbourhood or a new luxury apartment in the city centre.

A decade-old Fiat five-seater with a busted engine that might be stripped for parts elsewhere was listed at $8,250 — more than twice Sri Lanka’s average yearly income.

“A car and a house are symbols of success,” said a grinning Sarath Yapa Bandara, the owner of one of the capital’s biggest dealerships.

“That is why most people are willing to buy even at these high prices.”

Car ownership remains a virtual necessity in the traffic-snarled streets of Colombo, where a ramshackle bus and rail network was already struggling with overcrowding.

The number of taxis has also fallen sharply, with drivers selling their cabs to cash in on the dizzying prices, and those still working charging double their old fares or more.

“You must have your own car,” said Udaya Hegoda Arachchi, another buyer preparing to bite the bullet at a dealership.

“We can’t expect prices to come down anytime soon, given the economic situation in the country,” he told AFP.

Covid has sent Sri Lanka into a tailspin, drying up all-important earnings from tourism and foreign remittances.

In March 2020 the government brought in a wide-ranging import ban — including for new cars — to stop foreign currency from leaving the country.

But the policy has not been able to staunch the outflow of dollars, and has instead left the nation struggling to source critical goods.

Food retailers have rationed rice, restaurants have shuttered because they cannot find cooking gas, and cash-strapped power utilities unable to afford oil have imposed rolling blackouts. Farmers have run out of fertilizer.

Rating agencies have warned that Sri Lanka might default soon although the government says it will meet its commitments. It is trying to renegotiate its Chinese debts with Beijing.

The import ban has also left car parts in short supply, meaning drivers are at risk of being stranded after a breakdown.

Ravi Ekanayake told AFP that his Colombo repair garage was doing a roaring trade from owners unable to afford the astronomical costs of switching to a new vehicle.

“But parts are scarce. It is a catch-22: You either get caught with an old car without parts or you don’t have the money to buy a new car.”

Financial analyst Murtaza Jafferjee said the prices also underscored a problem caused by excessive money printing by a cash-strapped central bank, with “too much money chasing too few goods”.

He said the prices were also increasing transport costs and adding to inflation, which hit a record 14 percent in December.

“When vehicles become unaffordable for a segment of society, their activities will be limited. Then we will also see a loss of economic output,” the CEO of JB Securities said.

“We are about to collapse and not many people appreciate the depth of the problem.”



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Govt plans to hire 121,000 state workers, redistribute tax revenue

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MONETABRIEF –Sri Lanka plans to hire 121,000 state workers to fill identified vacancies over the next year as part of plans to return tax money to the economy President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has said.

For many years employment was restricted to the state service.

“We will not hire in a ad hoc manner (hithoo hithoo vidiyater),” President Dissanayake told a public rally in Akuressa.

“A committee under the Prime Minister and asked each agency what the vacancies were. Was it essential? Will these people stay with no work? We will hire 121,000 to the state service in that manner. This year. We have not hired all.”

“10,000 for the Police. 23,000 teachers. Then a young person in the village will get a job. A teacher will be there. They will get an economic strength. They will join the police.

“Next year we will give a special allowance to police in the budget. They work 18 hours. They will get a uniform with a batton and kid. When the jobs are created, economic opportunities will be created.

“Then the benefits that the economy got will to the people.”

When Sri Lanka defaulted around 80 percent of the tax revenues went to pay state worker salaries and pensions after rising to 50 percent when the stimulus for economic growth (potential output targeting) initially started.

With more money in the Treasury capital expenditure will also be increased to 2,000 billion rupees in the 2027 budget.

Sri Lanka is planning to build some expressways with domestic financing which may trigger more imports and require higher interest rates to maintain external stability.

Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa also pushed to hire more unemployment graduate in parliament transferring more taxes collected from the people to able bodied population.

Analysts had warned that ‘revenue based fiscal consolidation’ was a spurious doctrine as spending will catch up to match revenue.

Generally called Parkinson’s Second Law, the phenomenon was articulated by Nortcote C Parkinson in an article in the Economist magazine in 1955 when he was working at the Raffles University campus in Singapore (now NUS).

Sri Lanka went on a revenue based fiscal consolidation drive from 2015 and eventually defaulted as ‘policy support’ intensified with aggressive central bank activism under a 5 percent inflation target after the agency was taught by the IMF to calculate potential output targeting.

In Sri Lanka politicians are against printing money but macro-economists support high inflation and monetary depreciation. When people are impoverished by depreciation and the high inflation target of the central bank, Aswesuma (income support) benefits are increased.

In 2026 the rupee collapsed to 330 to the US dollar from 300 a year earlier as the government ran a budget surplus.

Macro-economists who cut rates had blamed budget deficits for external trouble since money printing to suppress interest rates started in 1952. What is now called ‘rate cuts’ were not invented at the time.

Meanwhile another method of spending money in the Treasury was to give subsidies, President Dissanayake said. The subsidies will however be targeted to the deserving.

These included persons affected by kidney disease, orphans in care who will get 5,000 rupee a month deposited into their accounts and 2 million rupee when they leave the home to build a house.

The time in the care home had been extended from 18 to 21 years, he said.

It was not a good idea to give subsidies to all, President Disssanayake said.

However, even in rich countries there were a section of the population that had to be supported and others who faced sudden crises in their lives.

Politicians in Sri Lanka are against money printing and pushing up the cost of living, but are unable to do anything as the central bank is independent and has a 5-7 percent.

The International Monetary Fund has supported Sri Lanka’s controversial 5-7 inflation target which was to have been revised in October, delivering a blow to advocates who want monetary stability, free trade and democratic rule for the country.

The central bank exceeded its target and pushed up inflation to 8 percent in 2026.

Though opposed inflation and being prepared to raised taxes, politicians in a democratic set up dominated by are they are under pressure to spend, whenever tax revenues increase.

Macro-economists also push politicians to engage in capital spending not for benefits that come after a project is completed, as in the classical period, but for the instant gratification of the ‘multiplier effect’ of Keynesian stimulus or what is called ‘policy support’ by the IMF.

The thinking of macro-economists well-articulated in ‘revenue based fiscal consolidation’ which was rejects the classical ‘spending based consolidation’ match political needs.

Many western nations including the US, which has been in the grip of stimulus advocates over over 20 years are now drifting towards debt crises with uncontrollable inflation under so-called ample reserve regimes operated by central banks.

Sri Lanka first started to go to the IMF in the 1960s as US macro-economists in particular started to push ‘full employment’ policies leading to the collapse of the Bretton Woods a few year later.

“Past experience in Ceylon, which is in line with experience in virtually all parts of the world, is that in a democratic set up political and other pressures are heavily on the side of more and more spending by the government,” B R Shenoy, a classical economist told the then Ceylon government in a policy document in 1966.

“When Revenues increase, under the weight of these pressures, expenditures too increase to meet, or even exceed, Revenue collections. In Ceylon during the past seven years Revenues rose by 45 per cent and Expenditures charged to Revenues by 48 per cent.

“There is a real danger that any programme for increased Revenue collections may be attended by a corresponding increase in the consumption expenditures of the government, and little may be left of the additional Revenues to cover Budget deficits.”

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Parliament clears 22A amid protests

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The government secured the required two-thirds majority in Parliament on Friday to pass the Twenty-Second Amendment to the Constitution Bill, despite opposition from the SJB, the ITAK, the SLPP, the SLMC, and other opposition parties.

The Bill received 158 votes in favour and 63 against. The Judicature (Amendment) Bill was also passed by the same margin.

The two Bills were passed following a two-day parliamentary debate and several hours of voting, with Opposition MPs calling for separate divisions on clauses of the Judicature (Amendment) Bill during the Committee Stage. The final vote on that Bill was announced around 8.08 p.m.

The 22nd Amendment provides for increasing the retirement age of Supreme Court judges from 65 to 67 and that of Court of Appeal judges from 63 to 65. The Chief Justice would retire at 67 or after six years in office, whichever comes first.

The Supreme Court determined that the constitutional amendment did not require a referendum and could be passed with a special two-thirds majority. It also determined that the Judicature (Amendment) Bill could be passed by a simple majority.

The Bills were presented for their Second Reading on Thursday by Justice and National Integration Minister Harshana Nanayakkara.

The SJB mounted a strong protest against the legislation, with its MPs wearing black in Parliament yesterday and party members staging a demonstration at Polduwa Junction, Battaramulla.

Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa and several SJB politicians participated in the protest held under the theme “No to 22, which destroys democracy”.

ITAK and SLMC MPs voted against the Bills alongside the SJB.NDF MPs Ravi Karunanayake and Faizer Musthapha and SJB Badulla District MP Nayana Wasalathilaka were absent during the voting.

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Sajith likens 22A to ‘Emperor’s New Clothes’

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Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa yesterday likened the Government’s justification of the proposed 22nd Amendment to Hans Christian Andersen’s “The Emperor’s New Clothes”, claiming that the amendment would undermine judicial independence, democracy and the separation of powers.

Speaking in Parliament during the debate on the 22nd Amendment, Premadasa said the Government portrayed the constitutional amendment as a measure aimed at protecting democracy, but alleged that its actual effect would be to strengthen executive influence over the Judiciary.

He said the amendment would erode public confidence in judges and turn the Judiciary into a “tool and puppet” of the Executive.

Premadasa recalled the constitutional changes introduced through the 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th and 21st Amendments, arguing that executive powers had been repeatedly reduced and restored under successive governments.

He also criticised politicians who had supported several of those amendments while continuing to receive public support at elections.

The Opposition Leader referred to the impeachment of former Chief Justice Shirani Bandaranayake and accused those who had supported her removal of later taking positions in favour of judicial independence.

He also referred to a court order concerning the holding of local government elections, saying some politicians who had previously defended judicial independence had subsequently called for judges who issued the order to be summoned before a Parliamentary Select Committee.

Premadasa said the Samagi Jana Balawegaya had consistently defended judicial independence in both instances.

He also questioned the Government’s proposal to extend the retirement age of senior judges, saying no proper study had been conducted to justify the measure. He referred to a 2023 Asian Development Bank study, claiming that extending judges’ retirement age had not been identified as a solution to problems facing the Judiciary.

The Opposition Leader further questioned the Government’s position that a referendum was unnecessary for the 22nd Amendment, recalling arguments made by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake in support of a referendum during the 20th Amendment process.

The Supreme Court has determined that the 22nd Amendment Bill does not require approval at a referendum under Article 83 of the Constitution, while requiring certain textual changes to the Bill.

Premadasa also accused the Government of departing from its manifesto pledge to abolish the executive presidency and alleged that it was instead seeking to increase executive influence over state institutions.

He urged the Government to withdraw the Bill, alleging that it would weaken checks and balances and move the country towards one-party rule.

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