Business
Sri Lanka Development Update 2021 – World Bank Report
(Select extracts)
Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Sri Lanka’s economy contracted by 3.6 per cent in 2020, the worst growth performance on record, as is the case in many countries fighting the pandemic. Swift measures enacted by the government in the second quarter helped contain the first wave of COVID-19 successfully, but these measures hit sectors like tourism, construction, and transport especially hard, while collapsing global demand impacted the textile industry.
Job and earning losses disrupted private consumption and uncertainty impeded investment. As a result, the economy contracted by 16.4 per cent (y-o-y) in the second quarter. The economy began to recover in the third quarter as the first wave was brought under control and containment measures were relaxed. The momentum continued in the fourth quarter as the economy was broadly kept open despite a second wave of COVID-19 infections.
The government took proactive measures to mitigate the impact of the pandemic. Despite limited fiscal space, resources were allocated (approximately 0.7 per cent of GDP) for health measures, cash transfers, and postponed tax payments. While public expenditures increased, revenues declined, resulting in a widening of the fiscal deficit in 2020. Due to the economic contraction and the elevated fiscal deficit amid COVID-19, public and publicly guaranteed debt is estimated to have increased to 109.7 percent of GDP. In line with the government strategy to reduce external debt over the medi- um-term, debt financing relied increasingly on domestic sources.
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) significantly contributed to the crisis response. It undertook considerable monetary policy easing, for which there was room given benign inflation, and additional measures to increase liquidity in the market and support businesses. It also introduced financial sector regulatory measures, like a debt moratorium for COVID-19 affected businesses and individuals.
However, despite these efforts, bank lending to the private sector remained low. By contrast, credit to the government and state-owned enterprises surged and accounted for 80 per cent of the total credit in 2020.
The pandemic likely exacerbated pre-existing financial sector vulnerabilities, although the full impact of COVID-19 cannot yet be observed. An improved trade balance and strong remittance inflows narrowed the current account deficit. A sharp drop in imports in 2020 more than offset the decline in exports. However, with financial inflows insufficient to meet external liabilities, reserves declined to an 11-year low in February 2021, before a currency swap worth US$ 1.5 billion with the People’s Bank of China was approved in March 2021. Due to a shortage of foreign currency, the exchange rate depreciated by 6.5 per cent from January through March 17, 2021.
The CBSL took several measures to preserve foreign exchange reserves and reduce pressures on the exchange rate. Growth is expected to recover to 3.4 per cent in 2021, mainly reflecting a base effect and FDI inflows. Gradually normalizing tourism and other economic activities as well as already signed investments will support growth. However, the subdued global recovery may dampen export demand. Over the medium-term, continued trade restrictions, economic scarring from the slowdown and the high debt burden may weigh on growth prospects.
Through an enhanced focus on an export-oriented growth model that taps the full potential of private investment, the country could realize its ambitions to increase its competitiveness and raise growth in a sustainable manner. The forecast is subject to both upside and downside risks. If the global economy recovers faster than expected and the global tourism industry rebounds more quickly with the progress on vaccination programs, the growth outlook could become more favorable.
On the other hand, downward risks persist, pertaining to debt and external sustainability given high debt and low external buffers, especially because the repayment profile requires accessing financial markets frequently. Given large refinancing requirements, constrained market access amid rating downgrades is a challenge. Thus, striking a balance between supporting the economy amid COVID-19 and ensuring fiscal sustainability is key. A reform program to provide a fiscal anchor could help Sri Lanka to reduce debt vulnerabilities and lower sovereign risk.
The COVID-19 impact on employment and poverty
The economic contraction in the wake of COVID-19 has reversed past progress, at least temporarily. Poverty is expected to have risen since the onset of the pandemic mostly due to widespread job and earning losses. Simulations suggest that job losses were more likely to occur in urban areas and among private sector and own-account workers. Job losses were concentrated in the lower-middle of the income distribution: workers most vulnerable to job loss are located between the 20th and 40th percentiles of the pre-pandemic earnings distribution.
Temporary absence from work and job losses occurred less frequently than declines in earnings. While informal workers are more likely to suffer earnings losses, formal workers have been affected as well, for example in the export-oriented apparel industry. With jobs lost and earnings reduced, the $3.20 poverty rate is projected to have increased from 9.2 per cent in 2019 to 11.7 per cent in 2020.
The poorest experienced the largest proportionate earnings shock while the smallest proportionate income losses were suffered by the richest. The latter tend to have formal, secure jobs and better access to digital technology that allows them to conduct wage work or business operations remotely. To mitigate the impact of the economic hardship on the poor and vulnerable, the government implemented several livelihood support programs, which helped to soften the labor market shock and the impact on poverty.
Further progress in restoring livelihoods and making them more resilient could help Sri Lanka to continue its path of poverty reduction and shared prosperity. The current social protection system could support the reintegration of those who lost their jobs. In the medium term, social safety nets could be better targeted toward the poor and vulnerable, and adjusted to allow for support to be scaled up quickly and effectively in times of crises. Unequal opportunities to work from home have introduced new economic and spatial divides as working remotely is nearly exclusively an option for high income earners, and small and medium-sized enterprises were unlikely to adopt digital technologies.
In the medium to long-term, digital technologies could become an important engine for job growth. However, despite wide scale ownership of cellphones in Sri Lanka, the digital revolution will fall short of expectations without expansion of high-speed networks and accessible data on the whole island. Sri Lanka could provide new opportunities for economic mobility through policies that expand or universalize access to digital infrastructure.
Investments in digital literacy are a prerequisite for widely shared benefits from these new opportunities.
Growth should recover gradually in 2021. The economy is expected to grow by 3.4 per cent in 2021, from a low base, as vaccination programs progress in Sri Lanka and its major trading partners.
Already-signed investments into the Colombo Port City and Hambantota Industrial Zone and gradually normalizing domestic economic activities should provide an impetus to growth. However, the momentum of the recovery is expected to be constrained due to: (i) subdued export demand and tourism, as well as lower remittances growth amidst the sluggish global recovery; and (ii) the challenging domestic macroeconomic situation. Continued import restrictions and the high debt bur- den will adversely affect growth and poverty reduction over the medium-term. Inflationary pressure is expected to materialize in 2021-2023 due to the partial monetization of large fiscal deficits. External buffers are expected to remain low, with subdued financial inflows and significant financing needs. The current account deficit is projected to remain low in 2021, with strict import restrictions largely offsetting relatively low garment exports and tourism receipts.
Courtesy – Sri Lanka
Financial Chronicle
Business
No shortcut to building Sri Lanka’s reserves: CBSL Governor
by Sanath Nanayakkare
“There is no shortcut to sustainable reserve accumulation,” Central Bank Governor Dr. P. Nandalal Weerasinghe said yesterday, warning that rebuilding Sri Lanka’s foreign-exchange buffers must be underpinned by sound economic fundamentals, policy credibility and institutional discipline rather than short-term fixes.
Addressing the inaugural Reserve Management Conference 2026 in Colombo, Dr.Weerasinghe said the task of building reserves had become increasingly difficult as geopolitical fragmentation, trade tensions, sanctions, volatile commodity prices, changing interest-rate cycles and rapidly shifting capital flows reshape the global financial environment.
For Sri Lanka, which experienced the consequences of depleted reserves during the 2022 economic crisis, the issue is particularly important.
“When reserves become critically low,” the Governor said, the consequences extend well beyond the Central Bank’s balance sheet. Imports become constrained, debt servicing becomes difficult, exchange-rate pressures intensify, inflationary pressures can increase and confidence deteriorates.
Most importantly, he said, the policy space available to respond to further shocks becomes severely constrained.
Foreign reserves should therefore be viewed not simply as financial assets but as a country’s “first line of defence” against external shocks, providing confidence, policy space and the ability to meet essential external obligations.
But Weerasinghe cautioned that reserve accumulation was not a linear process. A country could build reserves during favourable periods only to see them drawn down rapidly by an external shock.
The more important questions, therefore, were how resilient the reserves were, how accessible they were, how quickly they could be mobilised and whether they would be sufficient for the next shock.
Sri Lanka has made considerable progress since the crisis, with macroeconomic stabilisation and structural reforms strengthening the external sector compared with the difficult period of 2022–2023, he said.
However, sustainable reserve accumulation could not be separated from the broader macroeconomic policy framework.
Foreign exchange generated through exports, tourism, remittances, services and capital inflows ultimately provides the foundation for stronger reserves. When foreign-exchange inflows exceed outflows, reserves can rise, but maintaining that process while preserving exchange-rate flexibility, price stability, external debt-servicing capacity and market confidence remains a delicate policy challenge.
Dr.Weerasinghe warned against relying excessively on central-bank intervention, monetary expansion or external borrowing to rebuild buffers. Such measures could distort market signals, generate inflationary pressures or simply create future debt-service obligations.
“The most sustainable reserve accumulation strategy is therefore not simply to acquire reserves,” he said. “It is to build an economy that naturally generates and retains foreign exchange.”
The Governor said geopolitical risk had now become an integral part of reserve management. Strategic competition among major economies, sanctions and financial fragmentation were forcing reserve managers to reconsider the risks associated with particular currencies, jurisdictions and financial markets.
Although the US dollar continues to dominate international trade, finance and global reserves, diversification has a role to play. But diversification for its own sake could reduce liquidity and operational efficiency, he cautioned.
For official reserves, safety and liquidity must remain paramount, particularly because reserves may have to be deployed precisely when financial markets are under severe stress.
Sri Lanka’s vulnerability to energy and geopolitical shocks also makes the issue particularly acute. As an energy-importing country, a sharp rise in global oil prices can rapidly increase the import bill. At the same time, geopolitical tensions can weaken tourism and other sources of foreign exchange, producing the potentially damaging combination of rising outflows and declining inflows.
Climate-related disasters could create similar pressures by disrupting agriculture, infrastructure, tourism and imports.
Dr. Weerasinghe said reserve adequacy should therefore no longer be judged by a single number or conventional indicator such as import cover. Short-term external liabilities, debt-service requirements, capital-flow volatility, exchange-rate flexibility, contingent financing and the probability and magnitude of external shocks should also be considered.
He also highlighted the growing role of gold, technology and artificial intelligence in reserve management, while stressing that innovation should never compromise safety and liquidity.
Ultimately, the Governor said, reserves were not managed simply to earn a return but to protect economic stability and preserve confidence.
“Buffers must be built before they are needed,” he said, “because by the time an external crisis arrives, it may already be too late to begin building them”.
Business
Price of war keenly felt by investor community
By Hiran H. Senewiratne
The escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the surge in oil prices are continuing to negatively impacted investor sentiment, market analysts said yesterday.
The All Share Price Index went down by 93.55 points, while the S and P SL20 declined by 23.8 points.
Turnover stood at Rs 1.45 billion with five crossings. Those crossings were; Sampath Bank 3 million shares traded to the tune of Rs 428 million; its shares traded at Rs 142.50, Commercial Bank 256,000 shares crossed for Rs 49 million; its shares traded at Rs 204.50, Digital Mobility Solutions 190,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 30 million; its shares fetched Rs 158, Overseas Realty 493,000 shares crossed for Rs 26 million; its shares sold at Rs 53 and Royal Ceramics 469,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 23 million; its shares traded at Rs 48.50.
In the retail market companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were; Commercial Credit and Finance Rs 38 million (376,000 shares traded), Renuka Agri Rs 33 million (2.8 million shares traded), Sierra Cables 32 million (925,000 shares traded), Singer SriLanka Rs 31 million (359,000 shares traded), Dialog Axiata Rs 31 million (637,000 shares traded) and Access Engineering Rs 30 million (383,000 shares traded). During the day 35 million share volumes changed hands in 13380 transactions.
It is said that banking sector counters, especially Commercial Bank, led the market,which contributed close to half of the total turnover. Apart from that other sectors, including manufacturing, telecom and construction counters performed well.
Meanwhile, Melstacorp (down 1.32 percent at Rs 187.00 ), Royal Ceramics Lanka (down 1.22 percent at Rs 48.50 ), Hemas Holdings (down 1.27 percent at Rs 31.20 ), and Dipped Products (down 1.50 percent at Rs 59.00) were top negative contributors.
Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs 328.60/70 to the US dollar in the spot market from Rs 328.60/80 the previous day, while bond yields were quoted steady to lower, dealers said.
Business
Softlogic Glomark’s “Better Life” campaign wins Gold at Dragons of Sri Lanka 2026
Softlogic GLOMARK, one of Sri Lanka’s leading supermarket chains, has been recognised at the Dragons of Sri Lanka Awards 2026, winning Gold and Black Dragon for Loyalty & Acquisition and Product Relaunch. The recognition reflects a deliberate strategic shift in how GLOMARK engages with the evolving needs of Sri Lankan consumers. Rather than competing primarily on convenience or price, GLOMARK built a purpose-led proposition around “A Better Life for Your Home,” repositioning the everyday grocery shop as an opportunity to make healthier, more considered choices for customers and their families.
Launched nationally as “Better Life,” the campaign brought this proposition to life through a vibrant commercial and memorable jingle, before extending the idea beyond advertising and into the shopping experience itself. Trained employees, curated product ranges and a re-aligned store environment were designed to make better choices more visible, accessible and easier to adopt.
The strategy translated into measurable business results. Active loyalty customers grew by 21%, footfall increased by 33%, while GLOMARK’s most frequent shoppers grew by 50%. The results demonstrate that building relevance and trust can create stronger customer relationships than competing solely on price or convenience.
Softlogic GLOMARK CEO Terry O’Connor said: “This award signals that our long-term strategy is working. We set out to build a brand customers choose because it genuinely improves their lives, not simply because it is convenient or cheap. Seeing that reflected in both industry recognition and real business growth confirms that we are on the right path and strengthens our confidence as we continue investing in GLOMARK’s future.”
Softlogic GLOMARK Head of Marketing Chamindri Pilimatalauwe said: “Our customers are increasingly making more deliberate, health-conscious, better choices, and this recognition confirms that our brand strategy is responding to that shift. We believe that when we curate every aisle and guide customer’ through it, we are also helping curate the lives of our customers. In that sense, we are more than a supermarket. We have the ability to influence how Sri Lanka lives, and we take that responsibility seriously. ගෙට Better Life’ was never intended to be a single campaign moment. It represents a fundamental repositioning of what GLOMARK stands for, designed to inspire and earn loyalty rather than simply drive footfall.”
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