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Reeling from Trump’s tariffs, India and China seek a business reboot

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Modi and Xi last had a bilateral meeting in 2017 [BBC]

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi landed in China on Sunday with the sting of Donald Trump’s US tariffs still top of his mind.

Since Wednesday, tariffs on Indian goods bound for the US, like diamonds and prawns, now stand at 50% – which the US president says is punishment for Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil.

Experts say the levies threaten to leave lasting bruises on India’s vibrant export sector, and its ambitious growth targets.

China’s Xi Jinping, too, is trying to revive a sluggish Chinese economy at a time when sky-high US tariffs threaten to derail his plans.

Against this backdrop, the leaders of the world’s two most populous countries may both be looking for a reset in their relationship, which has previously been marked by mistrust, a large part of it driven by border disputes.

“Put simply, what happens in this relationship matters to the rest of the world,” Chietigj Bajpaee and Yu Jie of Chatham House wrote in a recent editorial.

“India was never going to be the bulwark against China that the West (and the United States in particular) thought it was… Modi’s China visit marks a potential turning point.”

India and China are economic powerhouses – the world’s fifth and second largest, respectively.

But with India’s growth expected to remain above 6%, a $4tn (£3tn) economy, and $5tn stock market, it is on the way to moving up to third place by 2028, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

“While the world has traditionally focused on the single most important bilateral relationship in the world, US and China, it is time we shift more focus on how the second and would-be third largest economies, China and India, can work together,” says Qian Liu, founder and chief executive of Wusawa Advisory, based in Beijing.

But the relationship is deeply challenging.

The two sides have an unresolved and long-standing territorial dispute – that signifies a much broader and deeper rivalry.

Violence erupted across Ladakh’s Galwan Valley in June 2020 – the worst period of hostility between the two countries in more than four decades.

The fallout was largely economic – a return of direct flights was taken off the table, visas and Chinese investments were put on hold leading to slower infrastructure projects, and India banned more than 200 Chinese apps, including TikTok.

“Dialogue will be needed to help better manage the expectations of other powers who look to India-China as a key factor of Asia’s wider stability,” Antoine Levesques, senior fellow for South and Central Asian defence, strategy and diplomacy at IISS, says.

There are other fault lines too, including Tibet, the Dalai Lama, and water disputes over China’s plans to build the world’s largest hydroelectric power project across a river shared by both nations, as well as tensions with Pakistan after the Pahalgam attack.

India also does not currently enjoy good relations with most of its neighbours in South Asia, whereas China is a key trading partner for Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan.

“I would be surprised if a BYD factory is coming to India, but there may be some soft wins,” Priyanka Kishore, founder and principal economist at research company Asia Decoded, says.

It’s already been announced that direct flights will resume, there may be more relaxations on visas, and other economic deals.

However, the relationship between Delhi and Beijing is “an uncomfortable alliance to be sure”, notes Ms Kishore.

“Remember at one point, the US and India were coming together to balance China,” she adds.

But India is completely perplexed with the US and its position: “So it’s a smart move – and feeds into the multipolar narrative that both India and China believe in.”

Modi is travelling to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) – a regional body aimed at projecting an alternative worldview to that of the West. Members include China, India, Iran, Pakistan and Russia.

In the past, India has downplayed the organisation’s significance. And critics say it hasn’t delivered on substantial outcomes over the years.

The June SCO defence ministers’ meeting failed to agree on a joint statement. India raised objections over the omission of any reference to the deadly 22 April attack on Hindu tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir, which led to the worst fighting in decades between India and Pakistan.

But experts say the downturn in Delhi’s relations with Washington has prompted India to rediscover the utility of the SCO.

China, meanwhile, will value the optics of Global South solidarity amid Trump’s tariff chaos.

The Brics grouping – of which China, India, Russia, Brazil and South Africa are the founding members – has drawn the ire of Trump, who has threatened to slap additional tariffs on group members on top of their negotiated rates.

Getty Images Employees work on the SMT (surface mount technology) shop floor where components are mounted on a PCB (printed circuit board) at Padget Electronics Pvt., a subsidiary of Dixon Technologies Ltd., in Noida, India.
Chinese smartphones manufactured in India hold a significant market share too. [BBC]

Modi last met Xi and Russia’s Vladimir Putin at the Brics summit in Russia in October 2024. Last week, Russian embassy officials said Moscow hopes trilateral talks with China and India will take place soon.

“Leveraging each of their advantages – China’s manufacturing prowess, India’s service sector strengths, and Russia’s natural resource endowment – they can work to reduce their dependence on the United States to diversify their export markets and ultimately reshape global trade flows,” Bajpaee and Yu said in their editorial.

Delhi is also leveraging other regional alliances, with Modi stopping in Japan on the way to China.

“Asean and Japan would welcome closer co-operation between China and India. It really helps in terms of supply chains and the idea of Make in Asia for Asia,” Ms Kishore says, referring to the political grouping comprising 10 Southeast Asian economies.

India continues to be reliant on China for its manufacturing, because it sources raw materials and components from there. It will likely be looking for lower import duties on goods.

India’s strict industrial policies have so far held it back from benefiting from the supply chain shift from China to South East Asian countries, according to experts.

There is a case for partnership, a strong one, says Ms Kishore, where India pitches to manufacture more electronics.

She points out that Apple makes airpods and wearables in Vietnam, and iPhones in India, and so there would be no overlap.

“Faster visa approvals would be an easy win for China as well. It wants market access in India either directly or through investments. It’s dealing with a shrinking US market, it’s already flooded Asean markets, and a lot of Chinese apps like Shein and TikTok are banned in India,” says Ms Kishore.

“Beijing would welcome the opportunity to sell to 1.45 billion people.”

Given the complexity of the relationship, one meeting is unlikely to change much. There is a long way to go on improving China-India ties.

But Modi’s visit to China could repair some animosity and send a very clear signal to Washington that India has options.

[BBC]



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Esterhuizen, bowlers lead South Africa to 3-2 series win

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Connor Esterhuizen hit back-to-back half-centuries (Cricinfo)

South Africa won their first away T20I series under Shukri Conrad, and second successive bilateral series, with a convincing performance over New Zealand in Christchurch. Put in to bat, they posted the highest total of the series of 187 for 4- and defended it with a six-player attack to seal the series 3-2.

After poor batting performances in the second and third T20Is,2 South Africa went from good to better in the next two. Three of South Africa’s four highest partnerships of the series came in this match, and they have unearthed a potential future star in Connor  Esterhuizen.  He scored back-to-back fifties in matches four and five and anchored their efforts in the decider. While Zak Foulkes and Josh Clarkson were economical, the rest of their attack conceded at over nine runs an over. Offspinner Cole McConchie’s 0 for 48 was the most expensive.

New Zealand were without their first choice top five and also had to do without Tom Latham, who was due to lead them but fractured his thumb in the third T20I. They were never really in the chase against a disciplined South African effort. None of their batters scored more than Bevan Jacobs’ 36 and they only had one partnership which threatened: 52 between Jimmy Neesham and Jacobs for the fifth wicket.

Overall it was a messy affair on both sides, with nine dropped catches in the game, the most for any men’s T20I as per ESPNCricinfo’s ball-by-ball data logs since June 2018

Rubin Hermann has been involved in half of South Africa’s top stands and looked set for a big one today. Early in his innings, Hermann took down Ben Sears no matter what length he bowled and took 14 runs off four balls. Later, he showed his strength against spin when he joined Esterhuizen in targeting McConchie. But then Hermann did not hit a boundary for 12 balls and needed to take it on. When Sears went hard length, Hermann pulled but got his timing wrong and skied the ball towards mid-off. Nick Kelly ran from mid-on, made his ground and then stuck out one hand to take a superman catch, flying low to the ground. Hermann was out for 39, and the second-wicket partnership was broken on 59.

While Hermann’s promise only peeped through, Esterhuizen went from excellent to exceptional and topped up his maiden international half-century from game four with a new career-best: 75 off 33 balls in the finale. His on-side dominance was on display, as he scored 52 runs in that half of the ground, including five of his six sixes. The biggest ones came off McConchie who he hit back over his head, then over midwicket and over square leg. In total, Esterhuizen scored 21 runs off 8 balls but wasn’t shy to show what he could do against the quicks either. In the last two overs, he took 25 runs off Kyle Jamieson and Sears. His innings ended when he tried to send a Sears full toss to Neesham with two balls to go and he ended the series with a total of 200 runs, 100 more than his nearest competitor, Devon Conway.

It’s been a tough few months for Jason Smith. He only played one game at the T20 World Cup, despite being a first-choice pick in the squad and has not managed to get one score over 20 in five innings on this tour. And then things seemed to become tougher. Smith was at extra cover when Dane Cleaver, on 1, backed away from a Gerald Coetzee ball and smashed it to him. It was hit hard and could have taken some holding onto but Smith let it burst through his hands. Luckily for him, three overs later, the chance to do better came. Ottneil Baartman drew a leading edge from a Cleaver and the ball looped to him at point. He made no mistake and Cleaver was dismissed for 22. New Zealand were 46 for 2 after the powerplay and well behind the chase.

Contrastingly, Coetzee has had a wonderful 10 days after missing out on T20 World Cup selection and recovering from a torn pec muscle. He finished as the joint leading wicket taker,  and the one with the lowest economy rate in the series. In today’s match, he didn’t concede a boundary until the final ball he bowled, and by then New Zealand were out of the game. Coetzee bowled two overs with the new ball, for 11 runs, and should have Cleaver’s wicket and then returned for the 17th and 19th overs. His penultimate over was a mix of quick short balls with the odd change of pace and cost two runs. Reward came in his last over, when he had Josh Clarkson caught off a leading edge at cover and McConchie caught at long-on trying to clear the ropes off a cross seam ball. Coetzee finished with 2 for 21 in four overs.

Brief scores:

South Africa 187 for 4 in 20 overs (Tony de Zorzi 12, Wiaan Mulder 31, Rubin Hermann 39, Connor Esterhuizen 75, Dian Foresster 21*; Zak Foulkes 1-22,   Ben Sears 2-37, Josh Clarkson 1-14) beat New Zealand 154 for 8 in 20 overs  (Tim Robinson 25, Dane Cleaver 22 , Nick Kelley 14, Bevan Jacobs 36, James Neesham 24, Josh Clarkson 13; Gerald Coetzee 2-21, Wiaan Mulder 2-28, Ottneil Baartman 2-33, Keshav Maharaj 1-35)by 33 runs

(Cricinfo)

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IPL captains’ meeting: What’s on the agenda?

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According to a BCCI communique to the franchises on Tuesday, accessed by Cricbuzz, Javagal Srinath and Nitin Menon will address the captains. The meeting is scheduled from 4:30 pm to 6 pm today (March 25)
The IPL captains’ meeting with the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) will cover a host of issues, including the innings timer (60-second clock), the Impact Player rule, the concussion substitute clause and the code of conduct rules. However, the main focus is expected to be on discussions and clarifications around the two-bouncer rule, bat checks, ball replacement, use of saliva and the retired-out provision.

According to a BCCI communique to the franchises on Tuesday, accessed by Cricbuzz, Javagal Srinath and Nitin Menon – heads of the BCCI’s match referees and umpires’ panels, respectively – will address the captains. The meeting is scheduled from 4:30 pm to 6 pm on Wednesday (March 25).

The BCCI has recently shared the playing conditions for the season with franchises, highlighting key changes to Rule 4.4 (change of ball in the second innings); 5.8.3 (bat checks); 18.5.1 and 18.5.2 (deliberate short runs); 19.5.2 (fielder grounded beyond the boundary); 28.7.6 (restriction on the placement of the fielder); and Appendix D-3.9 (combining umpire review with player review).

A glance at the new season’s playing conditions, in possession of Cricbuzz, does not reveal any obvious changes, but the rules around ball replacement have been elaborated in detail – something that was absent in last year’s playing conditions. Rule 4.4 in the latest playing conditions reads:

Ball lost or becoming unfit for play

If, during play, the ball cannot be found or recovered or the umpires agree that it has become unfit for play through normal use, the umpires shall replace it with a ball which has had wear comparable with that which the previous ball had received before the need for its replacement. When the ball is replaced, the umpire shall inform the batter and the fielding captain.

Team bowling second can request for a change of ball only once after the completion of the 10th Over. The bowling Captain can request for the change. This is applicable only once during the 2nd innings of the evening games irrespective of whether there is dew or no dew on the outfield. This request must be made only after the end of an over & not during an over. The umpires will change the ball with another ball having the same wear & tear. Further, the umpires can also change the ball at their discretion at any time during the match.

Scenario 1: Umpires change the ball for being wet/out of shape/lost/damaged any time before the 10th over. The fielding captain can still request for a ball change after the completion of the 10th over and the umpires will have to mandatorily change the ball.

Scenario 2: Captain requests to change the ball after 11th over for being wet and the umpires change it. After further 5-6 overs the captain can request for another ball change but this time it will be the discretion of the umpires to change the ball or not.

Scenario 3: Captain feels the ball is damaged or out of shape & requests the umpires to change it during the 11th over, the umpires are satisfied & decide to change the ball. After 5 overs the fielding captain requests the umpires to change the ball because of dew, umpires will have to mandatorily change the ball.

There are also other items like Team Sheet, Toss, Broadcast Media Commitments and Awards, about which there is no elaboration. The session will begin with an introduction by IPL COO Hemang Aming.

 

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Russia launches 948 drones at Ukraine in largest attack over 24-hour period

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Lviv officials posted images of a residential building on fire next to the Bernardine monastery (BBC)

Russia has launched the largest aerial attack on Ukraine over a 24-hour period since the war began, hitting cities across the country with 948 drones.

Ukraine’s Air Force said 556 drones had been fired since 09:00 local time (07:00 GMT) on Tuesday, in an unusual daytime attack which killed at least three people and injured dozens.

In the western city of Lviv, the 16th century Bernardine monastery – part of a Unesco World Heritage site in the city centre – was damaged, local officials said.

In the neighbouring Ivano-Frankivsk region, a maternity hospital was hit.

Those strikes came after an overnight Russian attack left five people dead. Ukraine said 392 drones and 34 missiles were fired.

In his video address on Tuesday evening, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the scale of the latest attacks “clearly shows that Russia has no intention of really ending this war”.

Russia’s military has not publicly commented on the attacks.

A video posted earlier on Tuesday by Lviv authorities showed a fire burning through the roof of a residential building near the Bernardine monastery.

Separate footage posted on social media showed a drone flying lower over the city and hitting the residential building.

Lviv regional head Maksym Kozytskyi said 32 people were injured in the Russian attack.

In the city of Ivano-Frankivsk, two people were killed and another four – including a six-year-old child – were injured, local officials said.

Various buildings – including a maternity hospital – were damaged in the regional capital.

Ternopil – another western Ukrainian city – was also targeted on Tuesday. A number of direct hits were reported by regional authorities, but no casualties.

In the central Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia, one person was killed and 13 injured, regional head Nataliya Zabolotna said.

In the overnight Russian attacks, five people were killed when Russia targeted 11 Ukrainian regions.

Ukraine’s Air Force said it had managed to shoot down most of the Russian drones and missiles – but admitted that there were multiple direct hits across the country.

Yurii Ihnat, spokesman of the Ukrainian Air Force, said late on Tuesday that a “large number of drones” had entered Ukrainian airspace from the north of the country, “effectively moving in columns”.

“The geography of the strikes during the daytime was broader than at night… It can be said this was one of the largest attacks within a 24-hour period,” he said.

While more than four years of war have left virtually no corner of Ukraine untouched, the west of the country has been hit comparatively less intensely and frequently than other areas nearer the Russian border in the east.

Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the war continues unabated, with Moscow launching near-daily attacks on cities across the country.

Also on Tuesday, the governor of Russia’s western Kursk region said one man was killed and 13 people were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on an agricultural enterprise.

Talks brokered by the US and aimed at reaching at a peace settlement have stalled since the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran in late February.

“Amid the news the world is drowning in every day, we will not let Ukrainian grief get lost, become just another statistic, a headline that will be casually skipped over,” wrote Ukraine’s First Lady Olena Zelenska on social media.

(BBC)

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