Business
VAT increase could cause inflation to hit 7 percent in January – CBSL Governor
By Hiran H.Senewiratne
Sri Lanka’s inflation could rise to 7 percent in January 2024 due to the VAT increase, the Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe warned.
Speaking at a special press briefing held yesterday, Dr. Weerasinghe explained that an increase in inflation is likely due to the increase in the VAT and other external factors. He was speaking at the CBSL’s first Monetary Policy Review for this year held at Central Bank head office in Colombo.
The VAT was increased by 3 percent, from 15 percent to 18 percent, with effect from January 1, 2024, after the VAT (Amendment) Bill was passed in parliament on December 11, 2023, he said.
The Central Bank kept its policy rates unchanged at 10 percent at this its first monetary policy meeting in 2024. Market rates should fall further.
The Central Bank has operated a largely deflationary policy, selling down its Treasury bills portfolio against dollar inflows, thereby preventing pressure on the currency and building reserves, resulting in a balance of payments surplus.
Dr. Weerasinghe added: ‘Over the past month, the exchange rate has appreciated, which may also help offset a 3 percent hike in value added tax on traded commodities.
‘Headline inflation is projected to record an upward movement in the near term, as expected, driven mainly by domestic price adjustments due to the increase in the VAT and the elimination of certain VAT exemptions effective January 1, 2024, disruptions to the domestic food supply and dissipation of the favourable statistical base effect.
‘However, this acceleration of inflation in the near term is expected to be short-lived and the spillover effects of such one-off adjustments are likely to be muted due to subdued underlying demand conditions. Therefore, over the medium term, headline inflation is expected to gradually stabilise around the targeted level of 5 per cent (year-on-year), supported by appropriate policy measures.
‘Headline inflation, as measured by the year-on-year change in the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2021=100), was recorded at 4.0 per cent in December 2023, compared to 3.4 per cent in November 2023.
‘Following five consecutive months of deflation, the food category recorded inflation (year-on-year) in December 2023, reflecting mainly the weather-related disruptions, while non-food inflation (year-on-year) moderated compared to the previous month.
‘Despite the recent acceleration, headline inflation remains closer to the inflation target of the Central Bank and is in line with the envisaged inflation projections of the Central Bank. Meanwhile, core inflation (year-on-year) continued to moderate in December 2023, compared to the previous month, reflecting the subdued demand pressures in the economy.
‘The Board took note of the effects of the recent developments in taxation and supply-side factors that are likely to pose upside pressures on inflation in the near term.
‘The Board anticipates a broad based reduction in overall market lending interest rates in line with the monetary policy easing measures that have come into effect since June 2023.
‘The Monetary Policy Board will continue to assess risks to inflation projections, among others, and stand ready to take appropriate measures to maintain domestic price stability in the period ahead while supporting the economy to reach its potential.
‘The Central Bank decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 9.00 per cent and 10.00 per cent, respectively.
‘The Board arrived at this decision following a comprehensive assessment of domestic and international macroeconomic developments in order to maintain inflation at the targeted level of 5 per cent over the medium term, while enabling the economy to reach its potential.
‘However, the Board viewed that the impact of these developments would not materially change the medium-term inflation outlook. Further, the Board noted the space created by past monetary policy easing measures and the decline in the risk premia attached to government securities for further downward adjustment in market lending interest rates.
‘The Board underscored that the envisaged benefit of further reduction in market lending interest rates needs to be adequately and swiftly passed on to businesses and individuals by financial institutions.
‘Market interest rates continued to adjust downwards in line with eased monetary policy and administrative measures taken to reduce overall market lending interest rates.
‘The yields on government securities continue to decline, supported by falling risk premia. The Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank is of the view that there is further space for market interest rates, especially the lending interest rates and yields on government securities, to decline in the period ahead, in line with the reduction in policy interest rates effected in the recent past.
‘The Sri Lankan economy recorded an expansion in the third quarter of 2023, following six consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Accordingly, the economy is estimated to have grown by 1.6 per cent, year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023, as per the GDP estimates published by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS).
‘This was a broad-based expansion in economic activity, supported by expansions recorded in Agriculture, Industry and Services sectors, on a year-on-year basis. The rebound in domestic economic activity is expected to be sustained, supported by the faster passthrough of relaxed monetary policy to broader market interest rates and the resultant firming of credit demand, improvements in business and investor sentiments, improvements in supply conditions and the gradual rebound expected in external demand conditions.
‘The merchandise trade deficit is estimated to have moderated during 2023 in comparison to 2022. This, coupled with the notable recovery in trade in services, mainly earnings from tourism, and the strong momentum of workers’ remittances, is expected to have resulted in a surplus in the current account balance of the balance of payments for 2023.
‘Gross official reserves (GOR) improved notably to US dollars 4.4 billion by end December 2023, which include the swap facility from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). This strong rebound of GOR was supported by the notable net purchases by the Central Bank from the domestic forex market and the proceeds from multilateral agencies. The Sri Lanka rupee, which appreciated by around 12 per cent against the US dollar in 2023, continued to show an appreciation so far in 2024.
‘In consideration of the current and expected macroeconomic developments highlighted above, and in keeping with the forward guidance provided at the last monetary policy review in November 2023, the Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on January 22, 2024, decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 9.00 per cent and 10.00 per cent, respectively.’
Business
Sri Lanka’s recovery reveals a ‘numerical puzzle’ in employment stats
Factory output rises, but many remain outside the labour market
Sri Lanka’s latest economic indicators point to a curious numerical puzzle as industrial production is rising while labour force participation has not moved in tandem.Data for January 2026 show that the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose 4.4% year-on-year to 99.3, signalling a modest improvement in manufacturing activity compared with January 2025. The expansion was led mainly by food products, which grew 10.6%, wearing apparel which increased 12.5%, and other non-metallic mineral products, which recorded 3.6% growth.
Ordinarily, such growth in factory output would be expected to draw more people into the workforce. Yet Sri Lanka’s labour market statistics tell a slightly different story.
The labour force participation rate has been in the high 40% range in recent years. Latest estimates show it at around 46.9%, compared with about 49.9% in an earlier period, suggesting that a noticeable segment of the working-age population has remained outside the labour market even as production has begun to pick up.
In other words, factories appear to be producing more, but the pool of workers actively participating in the labour market has not expanded at the same pace.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has remained relatively low, just above 4%, indicating that those who are actively seeking employment are generally able to find work.
Business sentiment indicators also point to continued momentum in the real economy. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing has remained above the 50 point threshold, signalling expansion in factory activity, though slightly less than the stronger readings recorded toward the end of last year. The services sector PMI, meanwhile, continues to reflect steady business activity.
An economic analyst told The Island that taken together, the numbers suggest that Sri Lanka’s productive sectors are slowly regaining their footing after the severe economic stresses of recent years, but the gap between rising industrial output and subdued labour force participation would raise a question for economists and policymakers if they put their mind to the matter,
“If factories are producing more, where are the workers? Where is more hiring?”, he asked.
“One could argue that workers who exited the labour market during the economic crisis through migration or shifts to informal activity may not yet have fully returned. And the gap is unlikely to be explained by automation in factories. If that is the case, a sustained revival in export-oriented industries such as apparel and food processing should gradually draw more people back into the workforce,” he explained.
“So, the numbers underline a simple but important challenge for policymakers to ensure that improvements in industrial production are matched by broader participation in the labour market. Until more people return to the workforce, Sri Lanka’s recovery may continue to show this curious numerical puzzle of factories producing more, but fewer people showing up in the labour statistics,” he argued.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
Plant-based tourism could be Sri Lanka’s overlooked growth opportunity: Andrea Diaz
As Sri Lanka searches for new sources of foreign exchange and sustainable economic reform, an unexpected opportunity may lie in something as simple as the food on its plate. According to Andrea Diaz, Executive Director of Dharma Voices for Animals (DVA), Sri Lanka could strengthen tourism revenue, improve public health and advance environmental resilience by positioning itself as a vegetarian- and vegan-friendly destination rooted in its Buddhist heritage.
“Compassion is not only a moral value,” Diaz says. “It can also be an economic strategy.”
Sri Lanka occupies a unique place in the global Buddhist world, having preserved the Theravada tradition for more than two millennia. Diaz believes this heritage gives the island a distinctive moral authority to demonstrate how Buddhist principles such as non-harming and compassion can shape modern policy and everyday life. Dharma Voices for Animals promotes plant-based food systems that protect animals, safeguard the environment and support human health. In Sri Lanka, the organisation frames its work as an effort to reconnect contemporary lifestyles with longstanding cultural values.
Historically, many Sri Lankan communities relied heavily on plant-based diets before colonial influences altered food systems. Even today, much of the island’s traditional cuisine – dhal curry, mallung, jackfruit dishes and coconut-based preparations – remains naturally vegetarian or easily adaptable. Diaz argues that this culinary foundation gives Sri Lanka an advantage that many countries struggle to build.
Rather than reinventing its food culture, she says, Sri Lanka could highlight its existing culinary traditions and present them to the world as part of a compassionate and sustainable national identity.
DVA’s work on the ground focuses on translating these ideas into practical change. A network of volunteer regional coordinators conducts educational programmes at temples, Sunday schools, community centres, women’s groups, medical clinics and even army facilities, encouraging people to reflect on how daily food choices align with Buddhist ethics. According to Diaz, the organisation’s outreach in 2025 alone reached more than 146,000 individuals through lectures, discussions and community events.
Education is paired with practical tools aimed at making plant-based eating accessible. The organisation has published Sri Lanka’s first vegan cookbook using locally available ingredients, while cooking classes broadcast on cable television and community cooking competitions demonstrate that plant-based meals can be affordable, nutritious and culturally familiar.
By highlighting that many rice-and-curry combinations already meet nutritional needs, advocates hope to dispel the perception that dietary change requires dramatic lifestyle adjustments.
The economic implications extend beyond cuisine. Diaz notes that global tourism trends are shifting toward values-driven travel. Visitors from Europe, North America and Australia increasingly seek destinations where vegetarian and vegan food is readily available and clearly labelled. Countries that accommodate this demand often benefit from longer stays and strong word-of-mouth promotion among conscious travel communities.
Sri Lanka, she suggests, could tap into this market with relatively modest policy steps – clearer menu labelling, plant-based certifications for hotels and targeted marketing highlighting the island’s naturally vegetarian culinary traditions.
Positioning Sri Lanka as a compassionate culinary destination could also strengthen its broader tourism brand. Modern travellers increasingly consider sustainability, ethics and wellness when choosing destinations. A national identity linking Buddhist values with environmentally responsible food culture could help differentiate Sri Lanka from competing tropical tourism destinations while supporting farmers who produce rice, lentils, vegetables, spices and coconuts.
Beyond tourism, Diaz believes dietary shifts could contribute to climate resilience and food security. Animal agriculture requires significant land, water and grain while producing comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Redirecting more crops directly to human consumption improves efficiency and allows more people to be fed from the same land base.
For a country already rich in plant-based staples, strengthening these agricultural systems could reduce reliance on imported animal feed while supporting smallholder farmers and protecting natural resources.
Public health represents another potential benefit. Many of the world’s most costly diseases including cardiovascular disease, diabetes and hypertension are strongly linked to diet. Diets rich in legumes, vegetables, fruits and whole grains are associated with lower rates of these conditions. Encouraging plant-forward diets, Diaz argues, could help governments reduce long-term healthcare costs while improving workforce productivity.
Dietary change, she emphasises, does not require universal adoption to produce meaningful social impact. Research on social movements suggests that when roughly 3.5 percent of a population actively supports a cause, broader cultural and political change can begin. In Sri Lanka’s case, that would mean about 800,000 people visibly committing to compassionate food choices and discussing the values behind them.
Yet while discussions about compassion and sustainability are gaining attention, Sri Lanka’s legal framework for animal protection remains outdated. The country still operates under a law dating back to 1907, a colonial-era statute widely viewed as inadequate for modern welfare standards. A proposed Animal Welfare Bill – developed through years of consultation and legal drafting – has twice received Cabinet approval but has never been presented to Parliament.
If enacted, the legislation would replace the colonial-era statute with modern welfare standards, establishing clearer definitions of cruelty and neglect, stronger penalties and improved investigative powers. It would also formalise internationally recognised welfare principles such as adequate food, shelter, medical care and humane handling of animals.
Advocates also emphasise that the growth of plant-based industries need not threaten farmers currently involved in livestock production. Instead, they see opportunities for gradual diversification. With appropriate training and policy support, farmers could transition toward crops central to plant-based diets or participate in value-added food production, strengthening rural livelihoods while reducing environmental strain.
For Sri Lanka, the broader message is that compassion, sustainability and economic development need not be competing priorities. A food system that emphasises plant-based traditions already embedded in local culture could simultaneously strengthen tourism, improve public health, enhance climate resilience and support rural agriculture.
Seen through that lens, the humble rice-and-curry meal may represent more than a culinary tradition. In a world searching for more sustainable ways to live and travel, Sri Lanka’s oldest food traditions may yet become one of its most modern economic opportunities.
by Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
City of Dreams partners with FitsAir for direct Ahmedabad-Colombo flights
City of Dreams Sri Lanka has partnered with FitsAir and Cinnamon Hotels & Resorts to launch direct scheduled passenger flights connecting Ahmedabad and Colombo, enhancing connectivity for Indian travellers to South Asia’s first integrated resort.
Sri Lanka’s first private international airline, FitsAir, will operate the service three times weekly from May 15, catering to Gujarat’s growing outbound travel market. The route positions Colombo as an attractive luxury getaway for Indian travellers while strengthening ties between the regions.
Guests can stay at Cinnamon Life at City of Dreams or explore other Cinnamon properties in Colombo, with curated holiday packages combining the resort experience with multi-destination itineraries across the island, including cultural experiences in Kandy and beach stays.
Kamal Munasinghe, Senior Vice President at Cinnamon Hotels & Resorts, noted India remains one of their most important markets, with Gujarat showing strong interest in Colombo as a leisure destination.
FitsAir Director Ammar Kassim added that the overnight departure from Colombo arrives early morning in Ahmedabad, giving travellers a full day ahead and opening smooth onward connections through Colombo across their growing international network.
Packages start from INR 55,555, including return airfare, two nights’ accommodation with breakfast at Cinnamon Life, and private airport transfers.
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