Features
Will Ukraine adventure challenge USA’s global hegemony and trigger World War III?
by Chintaka Batawala and Mohamed Inthi Sameem
President Valdimir Putin’s adventure into Ukraine was supposed to be quick, lethal, and with clear objectives. Send Zelensky into oblivion, and install a pro-Moscow regime that won’t be clamoring for the moon such as a NATO alliance membership. In fact, President Putin was so confident about the competencies of his military machine and achieving his objectives in good time, that he even went on to highlight, perhaps out of tune with time, that it was the Soviet Red Army that overpowered the Germans during World War 2, and not the French or the British. (Reuters.com, May 2022)
But after 200 plus days of fighting, shelling, thousands of refugees, a new dimension in drone warfare, in conjunction with the largest military buildup witnessed in Europe since world war 2, there are more questions than answers as to where this is all headed. However, if there is fair bit of ambiguity as to military aspects of this conflict, then the geo – political facets are definitely clearer.
For starters, the traditional alliances that have been the norm for decades have been strengthened. Beijing and Tehran are backing Moscow without much ado. Moreover, the Iranian cooperation with Moscow in terms of the supply of Iranian drones to Russia and the reciprocal supply of advanced SU 35 jets to Iran have garnered much international press attention.
This conflict however, has put New Delhi in a precarious situation. On one side India has to play along as a member of the QUAD that is aligned with the USA, and Japan. On the flip side of this equation is the fact that India is also a member of BRICS, that is affiliated with China and Russia. Moreover, the historical alliance between India and the Soviet Union dating back to the cold war days is still a present tense. If the Indian Government’s official reaction was diplomatic at best, then the Indian media was certainly vociferous in highlighting that it was the USSR and not the Western block that came to India’s rescue when Pakistan launched an anti-India operation code named Genghis Khan in 1971, which resulted in the formation of a new independent state called Bangladesh. (WION wide angle, 2022)
For Washington as expected the time tested all weather western partners London, Paris, and Berlin have thrown in their support, albeit in a muted way. In normal times the most enthusiastic and high-volume support to Washington would have come from London. But because Great Britain is going through its own leadership fiasco the tone from London was hardly a whisper.
But as sure as politics makes strange bedfellows, the biggest surprises have been, the cold shouldering by UAE ‘s Mohamed bin Zayed (MBZ ) and Saudi Arabia ‘s Mohamed bin Salman (MBS) to President Biden request to increase oil output to make up for the Russian absence in the oil markets.
If this was not bad enough coming from traditionally strong Washington allies, the Gulf states tilting towards Putin has further frosted the traditional ionic type bonding between Riyadh and Washington; a bond that has been a done deal for decades. Presidents Biden’s Riyadh visit to request an increase in oil output elicited comparison to then Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s visit to Saudi Arabia in November 1973, to request the then King Faisal bin Abdul Azeez (MBS ‘s uncle) to remove the oil embargo imposed after the Arab Israeli war of 1973. If Kissinger’s visit to the kingdom then was productive in some way as it set the tone for the Petro dollar, then Presidents Biden’s visit in 2022 to Riyadh with a fist bump greeting to the Saudi Crown Prince MBS, failed to live up to its expectations ( NBC news , July 2022)
Some experts do make a case that the West’s confrontation with Russia has brought the world within proximity to world War 3. ( Bill Ackman , CNBC May 2022 , Fiona Hill , Business Insider Sept 2022) . Whilst this statement may seem far-fetched at this time, it certainly has reasonable resonance. Rewind back to the reasons why World War 1 and World War 2 were so devastating was because, the major powers of the time got embroiled in a protracted military conflict, some by willful choice, like the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the others by Hobson’s choice like the Ottoman Islamic Empire. (World War I)
Granted we are not living in that sort of fragile coalition days, and there is some ease today due to the presence of a global authority in the United Nations to prevent the recurrence of a global conflict. However, with the prevalence of nuclear weapons among the major powers and who also happen to be the protagonists of this conflict, it seems petrifying to imagine the trajectory of such a global confrontation.
If the military aspect of this conflict is viewed as a localized war between Russia and Ukraine, the fact remains the West is collectively engaged in an Economic war with Russia, unprecedented in scale that would have been unimaginable just a few years ago. Moreover, the Economic consequences of this conflict are not going to fade away just like that. It is likely to create some structural fault lines in the global trade mechanism. If for the past 3 decades the key defining words for trade and commerce were Globalization and Economic liberalization, then certainly today the tide has turned towards economic nationalism and commercial decoupling.
The fall out risk of this conflict may not be nuclear, based on current dynamics but they are sky high especially for the global super power – the USA. The sanctions against Russia have been draconian as well as punitive such as the freezing of Central Bank assets and excluding Russian banks from the SWIFT network, a vital component in today’s financial architecture. The sanctions target the key vulnerabilities of the country’s economic engine; and in an era of globalised supply chains the sanctions effectively negate Russian access to technology and other related import inputs to the sectors in transportation, communication, and even port operations, all vital cogs for a country’s GDP growth. However, in an anti-climax of sorts Russia’s economic indices are holding better than expected. The GDP contraction for FY 2022 is expected to be 6 %, a better figure than the 15 % that was originally forecasted. (IMF, Economist Aug 2022)
Whilst the Western imposed sanctions had devastating effects on Iraq, and Libya, they have had only a limited impact on Russia. Perhaps this is due to Russia being a resource economy that is not fully integrated with the Global Economy. The Russian Economy is driven by commodity exports such as oil natural gas, nickel and aluminum which affords a certain cushion against western sanctions.
But perhaps the more important reason is , Russia is a permanent member of the UN security council and the veto power that accompanies it, allows Russia to challenge the western dominated security council resolutions on matters that goes against its interests.
Washington’s sanctions are well crafted with the required odds and evens, but there are glaring loopholes – the energy exception. If one of the primary goals was to reduce Russia’s oil revenue then the pragmatic strategy should have been to allow the free flow of oil into the markets and then simultaneously focus on a long-term solution to reduce the dependence on Russian oil. With plentiful supply the prices would stay within reason and thereby reduce energy driven inflationary pressures currently gripping Western Europe. But instead the sanctions strategists decided on an embargo which fell far short of the desired outcome.
The greatest challenge to the United States is that this Economic head on clash with Russia is being waged pretty much alone. This is because the European allies being fully aware of their Russia oil and gas dependency have been silent or reluctant partners at best to the path taken by Washington.
The USA is able to exert this sort of impact using the unique leverage status of the US Dollar. Because countries across the world have to use the US Dollar as the medium of international exchange even the threat to cut off them can cause Economic panic. More tangibly the US has the ability to impose sanctions on any country by leveraging on the long reach of the US Dollar even when the goods are not produced in the United States .To this effect just recently the US Dollar hit a two decade high prompting Barron’s to coin the caption, ‘The Green Back has gone ballistic’ ( Barron’s, Sept 2022)
However, that decades old phenomenon of the US Dollar as the de facto global currency may face its serious challenge yet. Fast growing and dynamic economies like Turkey, India, and the primary Petro dollar backer Saudi Arabia are seriously looking for alternatives to condense their dollar dependence.
The contrarian view of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is that it has highlighted something more than the ideological clash between the East and West, reminiscing upon the Roman and the Persian wars of antiquity from the annals of history. Putin has managed to carve out a softer and a romanticized persona for himself, despite the depiction in the western media as an unpredictable war monger. The old Boney M hit Ra Ra Rasputin from 1978, edited version of 2022 depicting Putin as the legendary monk during the days of the Russian Czar, has garnered over 200 thousand views on You Tube. But Putin’s touch of a genius moment was perhaps when he offered his personal jacket to the visiting leader of the UAE Mohamed Bin Zayed, who was feeling visibly uncomfortable in Moscow’s winter, portraying himself as a warm caring man. And it is this unpredictable persona of Putin is what prompts many to highlight the possibility of a World War 3 despite the remoteness’ of that likelihood, whilst eliciting comparisons to the chain of events that triggered World War I.
World war I started because of an accident of sorts triggered by a spark. That spark was the assassination of Arch Duke Francis Ferdinand, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian empire. But his assassin was successful only because of a single wrong turn taken by Ferdinand’s driver. On that eventful day in 1914 Ferdinand was on a motorcade in Sarajevo with little concern for Serb resentment to the Empires 1908 annexation of Bosnia- Herzegovina. The motorcade having run into incensed Serbian nationalists had decided to take an alternative route. But this crucial instruction to divert was not understood by Ferdinand’s Czech driver. As it panned out, Ferdinand’s car came into a grinding halt at a junction where the would-be Serbian assassin was hiding behind a tree. The rest is history. (First World war/ John, Keegan 1998, The Sleepwalkers -How Europe went to war in 1914, Christopher Clarke)
Whilst 2022 is certainly not 1914, accidental occurrences are always a probability. In the early stages of World War 1, the United States did not want to join the war, citing it as a conflict that is beyond the Atlantic Ocean. But the crucial trigger event was the sinking of the British Ocean liner the RMS Lusitania in mid Atlantic in May 1915 by a German U boat. The huge media outcry in the USA which followed, in turn forced US President Woodrow Wilson to declare war on the German centric Central powers. World War 1 which up until then had been a stalemate of sorts, tilted the balance in favour of Britain and France after the entry of the United States.
Whilst the Russian Ukraine conflict in 2022 may not have the requisite environment to trigger a global war as in 1914 , and President Putin is no arch duke Francis Ferdinand, it certainly has upset the delicate geo political balance that existed prior to this conflict. Furthermore, it has put globalization itself into a question mark which may result in further economic de coupling and eventual de globalization.
The most plausible result of the sanctions on Russia, is that Russia will be forced to join the China orbit. At present the 9th largest Economy in the world by nominal GDP (Wikipedia 2022), has been effectively removed from global economic matrices and supply chains. Joining the circle of the second largest Economy in nominal GDP makes business sense, the energy producer coming together with the energy consumer, creating this symbiotic relationship.
Moreover, if BRICS becomes BRICSS (as in BRICS +) with the inclusion of Saudi Arabia, it would give a tremendous boost to the BRICS economic forte as the major energy producer integrating with the energy consumers. If other possible contenders such as Turkey, Egypt and Iran who have all expressed their wish to join the BRICS, does materialize that may create a global economic conglomerate. BRICS represents 24 % of the global GDP, 41 % of the World population and 16 % of global trade. ( ,https:// brics2021.gov.in )
Unlike Western Europe and North America which share a common economic policy in free market enterprise and political ideology, the BRICS block is not at all a homogenous entity. In fact they are poles apart in political ideology and even monetary policy (example China and India) , but an expanded BRICS plus block with an economic objective will not only have the capacity but also the willingness to do something that has not been done before – be able to mount a monumental challenge to the hegemony of the US Dollar via a BRICS common currency .
In 1971 then US president Richard Nixon, took an unprecedented decision in removing the gold standard of the US Dollar which had been around since the Bretton Woods accord in 1944. This resulted in the US Dollar becoming a Fiat currency , decoupled from a physical store of value. But all that was to change in the aftermath of the Arab Israeli war of 1973 when Saudi Arabia’s ruler King Faisal bin Abdul Azeez imposed the Arab oil Embargo with the backing of other Arab oil producers. Then Secretary of State Henry Kissinger ‘s subsequent visit to Saudi Arabia resulted in the easing of the Arab oil embargo and the setting up of the structure and the functional aspects of the Petro dollar system. By 1974 this system was fully operational. ( The Rise of the Petro Dollar system – Dollars for Oil , Jerry Robinson 2012) . For the past 5 decades this equation held firm – the success of the Petro Dollar hinged upon the Saudi US relationship, energy for security principal.
But that delicate relationship between Washington and Riyadh is now under stress owing to the changes in the Global Economic system. In 1974 the Global Economic leaders were the USA & Western Europe, and China and India were not in that league. But today, China is a global powerhouse that is able to exert its influence on the others. The other not so prominent reason may be the BRICS driven reform agenda of the global financial system. The question remains as to whether the BRICS plus including Saudi Arabia will be able to de-dollarize the global financial system?
It is no secret that the BRICS members have wanted a greater autonomy to reflect their collective global economic position for a while now. The BRICS have collectively made a strong case for the inclusion of the China’s renminbi into the IMF’s SDR basket with the volume getting amplified year on year.
But the collective BRICS agenda for international financial system reform got a shot in the arm when Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Adel al Jubeir articulated that USA is one of its important partners along with China in the current global order. (CNBC International with Hadley Gamble, 2022) This statement was backed up by a memorandum of understanding between Arab oil company (formerly ARAMCO) and SINOPEC China, to address energy supply and demand details. In fairness to Saudi Arabia this statement should not be seen with a confrontational overtone but rather from a rationality point of view; it makes sense for Saudi Arabia to trade in the respective currencies of their major trading partners, China ‘s Yuan and Indian Rupee thereby circumventing the dollarization process in the trading process.
Whilst a military conflict between NATO and Russia is unlikely, it is always a remote possibility in similar fashion to how World war 1 started. President Vladimir Putin has certainly fired the salvo in driving a wedge between the traditional allies and upsetting the delicate geo political balances that existed prior to his invasion.
Whilst undoubtedly the USA is and will remain the global economic superpower and the leader of the free world for the foreseeable future, that take it for granted status quo that has been the norm for decades has now been dented. Putin knowingly or unknowingly has opened up the Pandora’s box to set in actions in motion to seriously challenge USA global hegemony and the long reach of the US Dollar. Decades ago, French President Charles De Gaul articulated about the exorbitant privileges of having the true global reserve currency. Well that state of affairs then, has been put into question as of 2022.
Whilst the Russia- Ukraine conflict may end in a military stalemate, the structural fault lines that it has created , the geo political issues that it has raised , the impact it has had on global trade mechanics and the questions it has raised about traditionally allied loyalties may serve as a litmus test for any future confrontations. This has to be looked at beneath this film of mundane reality, depth and seriousness.
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About the authors:
Mohamed Inthi Sameem (inthi_mohamed@yahoo.com) is a Financial markets specialist , counting over 15 years’ experience in the capacities of investment Strategist (Fund manager) , Head of Corporate Finance and investment Banking , Head of Research and delivery , Corporate & Management consultant (Zamil Group – Saudi Arabia )and Director Policy & surveillance (the Capital market authority – Securities and Exchange Commission – Sri Lanka ) , and Director Instrata capital , Bahrain (Kuwait investment Company)
He holds a BSc and MBA from the University of Houston Clear Lake – Houston Texas USA, and Certified Management Accountant (CMA) – high distinction (Australia )
Chintaka Batawala () is an international Relations Analyst based in Colombo, Sri Lanka .
Features
The 22nd Amendment, constitutional recovery and illiberal slippage
by Dinesha Samararatne
Professor, Dept. of Public & International Law, Faculty of Law of the University of Colombo
and was an independent member of Sri Lanka’s Constitutional Council (Jan. 2023 to Jan. 2026).
Sri Lanka’s political transition in 2024 was widely regarded as restoration of democracy, a reversal of authoritarian rule and an opportunity for constitutional recovery. The 22nd Amendment is the first constitutional amendment since this turning point. It 1) extends the age of retirement of the judges of the superior courts by two years, 2) expands the number of judges in the Court of Appeal by 4, and 3) introduces a cap of 6 years on the term of a Chief Justice. The expansion of the Court of Appeal is meant to facilitate the Court sitting outside of Colombo.
This Amendment is a stress-test on Sri Lanka’s democratic restoration as well as constitutional recovery. This Bill was published in the Gazette along with a proposed amendment to the Judicature Act of 1978, which sought to extend the age of retirement for the lower judiciary and to increase the number of judges of the High Court by 10. The enactment of the Amendment coincides with the completion of two years of this Government. Here, I offer a brief assessment of some of the key policy and constitutional issues involved.
Democratic Transition and Constitutional Recovery
There were many signs of a new lease of political life in Sri Lanka following the presidential election in 2024. Many politicians (of a certain kind) who sensed the change chose to not even contest the parliamentary elections. An Inspector General of Police (whose appointment itself was, at the time, under challenge) was impeached, and the political discourse seems to shift towards more democracy, transparency and accountability. The vigilance of the engaged citizen (as opposed to the mere voter) was evident in the pushback which led to the resignation of a Speaker as well as a Minister.
Some may say that these changes were too little and too late. After all, the Online Safety Act and the Prevention of Terrorism Act remain on our law books and we are still governed by an Executive President. Some others may argue that these are signs of a significant paradigm shift that is underway. Since 2025, the number of investigations, prosecutions and convictions related to bribery and corruption has been unprecedented, the President’s Fund is being accessed by people on the basis of financial need and there seems to be a change in the political culture. Whether these changes may be consolidated, it is too early to tell.
Policy and the 22nd Amendment
The 22nd Amendment to our Constitution suggests that political tactics familiar to the old order of things (to the extent that that order is in our past), are re-emerging. A proposal for a constitutional amendment which is piece-meal (with no convincing explanation for its selectivity), is published in the gazette without public consultation – not even consultations with relevant professional bodies – and is enacted without bi-partisan consensus. A recent example of a similar approach is the expansion of the number of judges in the Supreme Court and Court of Appeal by way of amendments at the Committee Stage of the 20th Amendment in 2020, with no transparency or consultation and with political justification post-Amendment. Many questions arise and remain unanswered. Among the many issues that plague our courts, on what basis were these issues prioritised for reform? As in the past, the process has been opaque and rushed. In turn this has led to polarised debates which carry the risk of compromising the confidence in the Government.
Laws delays, one of the stated concerns that the 22nd Amendment seeks to address, is at crisis levels in Sri Lanka. It is certainly a concern for citizens but it is a concern along with the extremely weak mechanism for legal aid, the lack of accessibility of court procedures and the difficulties we face for instance at a police station. We have a right to know why amidst all these serious and ubiquitous issues, the government prioritised constitutional reform in this selective manner. Constitutional reform must demonstrate a compelling link between the aspirations of the people for democracy, for human dignity and the flourishing of life. If the plight or aspirations of people are weaponised by political forces or elected representatives, we carry the burden of calling that out.
My own view is that a review of the age of retirement of judges is long overdue, but whether and how it ought to apply to sitting judges, carries the real or perceived risk of undermining the independence of the judiciary. Moreover, that is certainly not the only reform that is long overdue. The minimum criteria for the appointment of a judge to our superior courts is governed by convention (sometimes in the breach), not by law. In fact, the law does not lay down any criteria for appointment to our superior courts despite the Court’s assertion in its Determination on the 22nd Amendment bill that judges are appointed on merit, ‘competence and ability to work hard’ (p 87). While procedures and mechanisms are in place for disciplinary measures for the judiciary of lower courts, there is no such mechanism for the superior courts. The rules of the Constitutional Council (a matter that has been disputed in litigation) do not provide guidance on the process to be adopted for approval /disapproval of nominations made by the President to these courts. There is no judicial review of legislation in Sri Lanka. In fact, we are governed under a constitution that provides for the enactment of constitutional amendments or law reform that are inconsistent with the Constitution (with approval at a referendum). These are some aspects that require review and discussion in relation to the further improvement of the judicial branch of the state in Sri Lanka. Many of us consider these reforms not just important but also urgent.
Special Determinations and their Scope
Generally, after a Bill is placed in the Order Paper of Parliament, any citizen may challenge it before the Supreme Court and the Court communicates its determination to the President and to the Speaker within three weeks (Article 121). When a Bill proposes to amend the Constitution, it requires approval by 2/3 absolute majority in Parliament. Therefore, if a Bill is challenged, the Court has to determine whether it also requires approval by the people at a referendum. The approval of the people is required if the Court determines that the Bill or any of its clauses is inconsistent with the entrenched clauses of our Constitution listed in Article 83. There are 10 entrenched clauses in our Constitution including the clause on Buddhism and freedom from torture. These clauses may only be amended with 2/3 in Parliament and approval by the People.
The presentation of the Bill and proceedings before Court is a reminder, yet again, of the sheer inadequacy of the manner in which the Constitution is amended or how we engage in law reform. Within a matter of three weeks, the Supreme Court is required to exercise its ‘pre-enactment’ judicial review. In this case, 65 petitioners rushed to Court to challenge the 22A bill and eight others the amendment to the Judicature Act. The hearings are conducted under severe time-pressure, including, in this instance, without a right of reply for the petitioners to the submissions by the Attorney-General. In the proceedings related to pre-enactment review, I cannot help but notice the irony of the process. At least in theory, the Attorney-General is the guardian of the Constitution and, therefore, is required to act in trust, for the benefit of the People. In these hearings, however, the Attorney-General, by and large, presents and defends the policies of the government. In theory, the government represents the people. The petitioners, too, bring to Court the concerns of the people (to the extent that they are presented by the petitioners) through counsel who often appear pro-bono for them. One possible way out of this dilemma is to consider a possibility for the Attorney-General to participate in these proceedings on the basis of the Constitution and for the government to retain its own counsel to make submissions defending its policies.
Two Constitutional Issues
The Court was faced with two constitutional questions in hearing these petitions. First, whether the petitions required the full court to hear and determine the matter since the Bill involved the retirement age of the sitting judges as well. Second, the Court had to determine whether the proposed amendment had a negative impact on judicial independence, whether judicial independence was an aspect of the entrenched clauses of our Constitution and if both those questions were answered in the affirmative, whether the Bill required approval at a referendum. Previously, the Court has determined that in reviewing a Bill, Court will not inquire into the desirability of the proposed reform but limit itself to determining whether any clauses of a Bill are inconsistent with the entrenched clauses of Constitution and would therefore require approval by the people at a referendum.
Constituting the Bench
In the Supreme Court, benches ordinarily comprise three judges, and the Chief Justice is vested with discretion to constitute larger benches of five or more judges (Article 132). In ‘the opinion of the Chief Justice’ the question involved must be one of ‘general and public importance’. The decision to constitute a larger bench may be the Chief Justice’s decision, or on the request of at least two of the judges hearing the matter or at the request of a petitioner. In the Dissolution case (2018) the Chief Justice himself constituted a Bench of seven judges.
The Chief Justice had constituted a Bench of five judges to hear this matter, of different years of seniority in the Court. Court rejected the request for a full bench on the basis that the Bench did not have a conflict of interest and that a five-judge Bench was the appropriate use of the resources of the Court, particularly in light of the fact that the Court was due to hear petitions regarding another bill at the same time. For the first time, the Court comments on the administrative functions of the Chief Justice, the difficulties in case management under resource constraints and the internal procedures of a bench when dealing with a Special Determination. Ironically, this reminds us that for several months, the vacancies in the Supreme Court and the Court of Appeal have remained while the President and the Government claim that they are committed to addressing laws delays.
Even if the Court had taken the view that there was a conflict of interest, as a matter of necessity, the Court had to make a determination on this Bill. The Court, in its wisdom, determined that a five-judge bench was constitutionally adequate. Yet, it could be argued, that in this context, a full bench or a fuller bench, would have satisfied all concerned that the Court had taken the maximum measures it could, to avoid any perceptions of a conflict of interest. That interest of the Court and of our constitutional system, arguably is constitutionally more important than ensuring efficiency in case-management.
The Bill and Independence of the Judiciary
The independence of the judiciary includes the following dimensions: personal and institutional; negative and positive; the actual and the perceived; and procedural and substantive. These dimensions require a principled assessment as well as a situated or contextual assessment.
‘Independence of the Judiciary’ is explicitly mentioned only twice in our Constitution: in the preamble, as part of our ‘intangible heritage’ which ‘guarantees’ our dignity and well-being and as the sub-heading for chapter XV of the Constitution. The independence of the judiciary, as part of our intangible heritage, has to be understood as a foundational constitutional concept and as a constitutional principle. In its operationalisation, the concept and the principle have to be interpreted and applied in context. This is where the contestations on the 22nd Amendment come alive. None of the entrenched clauses directly refers to the independence of the judiciary. However, in its recent jurisprudence, the Court has held that the independence of the judiciary has to be read into Article 3 of our Constitution, which is entrenched. Article 3 states that ‘sovereignty is in the People and is inalienable’ and further that our sovereignty includes ‘powers of government, fundamental rights and the franchise.’ In this Determination, Court endorses this interpretation.
The Court rightly notes that matters of policy are not reviewable by court except if such policies are vague or manifestly unreasonable. The Court determines that petitioners were wrong to argue that the extension of the age of retirement of the judiciary was an encroachment on the independence of the judiciary. Notably, the Court does not explain the independence of the judiciary as a constitutional concept except to note that the Constitution ‘guarantees that Judges will be able to make decisions free of influence and based only on relevant facts and law.’ (p 74). The Court further notes that while a reduction of the term or a reduction in the salaries of judges would undermine judicial independence, the increase of salaries of judges could hardly be considered as impacting judicial independence.
The Court considered several comparative examples in considering whether or not the extension of the age of retirement has been determined to have undermined the independence of the judiciary elsewhere. However, in each of those examples the broader constitutional context has a material bearing on the conclusions reached. In India, the selection of judges for appointment is through the Collegium System which comprises the judiciary. In the UK, the age of retirement was raised after extensive consultation between July – October 2020. As reported by the UK government, 1004 responses were received from the judiciary, the legal profession and other stakeholders. It is thereafter that the decision was implemented. It is relevant to note here that despite the lack of consultation, the lower judiciary and the Bar went on record opposing this Amendment.
In its wisdom, the Court agreed with the submissions made by the Attorney-General that since the extension of the age of retirement applied to all the judges, it was non-discriminatory and non-discretionary and therefore was ‘not at the whim and fancy of the Executive.’ (p 83) The Court reproduces a Note to the Cabinet (3 July 2026) which sets out the reasons for the Government’s policy decision. Notably, in a sector where no constitutional reforms have been made, except to require approval for appointments by the Constitutional Council, the Note provides no justification for selectively focusing on the age of retirement. The excerpts of the Note reproduced in the Determination make no reference to the other two reforms proposed.
The Social Justice Questions and Constitutionalism
For us, the constitutional questions have to be answered within the broader political context. From the citizen’s perspective, even the increase of the salaries of judges, if implemented under questionable, selective or opaque circumstances, can give rise to questions, concerns and a weakening of public confidence. Facts take colour from their context. This reminds me of another question on which there has been some debate in Sri Lanka, which is, whether Sri Lanka should establish a separate Constitutional Court which will adjudicate on constitutional matters thereby permitting a broader jurisdiction and mandate.
Some others have even described law as a colonial tool that has oppressed most in society. Some have argued that social justice requires that we marginalise or even dispense with commitments to liberal values such as rules of procedure and values of democracy such as diversity of opinion. That Sri Lankans have experienced exploitation, that democracy has been abused for state capture, through its Constitution and law, is true. As much as the law has been a tool for exploitation and abuse, it has also been a tool for liberation and social justice. Victims of human rights violations and abuse of law, often the vulnerable in our society, often have no recourse but the law. They seek it, even if to fail. Justice, too, is heavily contested and should remain so. Its meaning cannot be the monopoly of one social class, a political party or a ruling elite. At the same time, there ought to be commitments we can make as a polity to values, procedures and substantive outcomes that bring liberal commitments to rights and procedure with those of social justice. Furthermore, we must avoid the trap of romanticising ‘the people.’ We, the people, have actively sought and cultivated political patronage and participated in practices that undermine our common good, such as daily acts of violence, racism, patriarchy, corruption, abuse whether at home, at work or in the public domain.
Returning to the question of law, constitutions and justice, we should be vary of a ‘them vs us’ approach, particularly when they are propagated by those with political, cultural or economic power. The Constitution allows the Cabinet to place a bill before the People for their approval through a referendum (Article 120). Perhaps, taking this path, even if it carries a significant financial cost, may have allowed the government to put to rest the opposition to the 22nd Amendment. It is ironic that under a Constitution that declares the people to be sovereign, the only time a bill has been put to the people, was to postpone the exercise of their franchise (4th Amendment to the Constitution 1982).
Illiberal Slippage and/or Democratic Backsliding?
Serious issues of constitutional politics of this nature require that a strong government (which is what we have, with a charismatic leader and 2/3 in Parliament) is matched by a strong Opposition. What we have, instead, for the most part, are some politicians and political parties that have no credibility on matters related to the judiciary, mobilising against the government and claiming to defend the independence of the judiciary. While that tragi-comedy writes itself, we the citizens ought to be concerned about the lack of healthy political competition, an essential feature of a sustainable democracy and the disregard by the government of the reasonable voices within the Opposition.
Illiberal slippage or democratic backsliding has been identified as a risk for regimes that have led a transition to democracy. In a system headed by an Executive President, such a risk is all too real, as we know all too well. Ad hoc, piece-meal constitutional amendments of this nature place us on that path. In this political moment, many truths compete with each other. It is true that Sri Lanka made a distinct transition to democracy. It was made in stages starting from 2022. No single political party or social movement can claim that transition as their own. We cannot deny the organic dynamics of that transition. It is true that this transition has a class dimension to it. For certain, the political elite of the past enjoy diminished political capital and mileage, at least for now. The professional elite, depending on one’s perspective, too, arguably enjoy diminished traction. The ground beneath us is shifting. It is also true that within the limited electoral cycle, limited political capital, and in a context where former authoritarian forces remain electorally relevant, institutional reform is difficult. Situated in this broader context, there is cause for concern about the 22nd Amendment. It has weakened our transition to democracy and placed our constitutional recovery at risk.
(I write as an engaged citizen who studies constitutional law. The views expressed here are my own.)
Features
Why do students ‘fear’ algebra?
by R N A de Silva
rnades@gmail.com
“I was good with numbers and liked mathematics, but it changed when letters started to replace numbers”- such sentiments are common expressions that we hear. Perhaps the challenges that the students face in mathematics as a school subject are mainly due to the fear of algebra. For many students the transition into secondary education brings this profound sense of academic dread – algebra. This anxiety is more a structural byproduct of human minds adapt to radical shifts in thinking than a personal failure of the individual student. Many students who have been dealing only with numbers suddenly feel that they are in unfamiliar territory as they have to combine numbers with letters, symbols and rules. Dismantling this fear has to be done by the educators through reshaping how it is introduced and contextualised so that it becomes an accessible gateway of logical reasoning.
Let us look at the reasons for the development of the fear of algebra.
The Challenge of the ‘unknown’
In the first few years of formal schooling, mathematics becomes a tangible experience. They can count with their fingers or tools like counters and beads. They can measure lengths of tables or rooms or divide boxes or fruits into fractions. The operations are predictable and visible. There is stability in numbers as three is always a three. Algebra disrupts this stability. Letters such as x and y are introduced which do not possess fixed values. Suddenly, they are asked to manipulate symbols which they cannot physically see. This demand for abstract thinking can leave students bewildered. When a student enters this stage prematurely or without adequate background, the brain struggles to attach meaning to symbols.
Foundational gaps
As mathematics is uniquely sequential and cumulative, a weak grasp of basic skills may hinder progress in algebra. If a student leaves primary school with a shaky understanding of mathematical operations, it will be a disruption to their ability to follow algebraic steps. Solving an algebraic equation such as 3x – 2 = 10 consists of two levels of cognitive processing. Determining the properties applicable to isolate the variable requires higher order strategic thinking while executing the basic arithmetic operations requires lower order execution. If difficulties arise with lower order execution, they lose track of the broader algebraic strategy. Building confidence starts with consistent practice of foundational skills.
Fear of making mistakes
In general, a problem in algebra may involve a multi-step process unlike in a standard arithmetic problem. This increases the chances of making mistakes thus resulting in an incorrect final answer although the process is correct. Unfortunately, the traditional grading systems often rely heavily on the final result than the logical process. This can lead to an intense fear of failure. Subsequently, this threat of failure may turn into a highly stressful experience.
Now, let us consider strategies to eliminate or minimise the growth of the fear of algebra.
Using concrete examples to clarify abstract ideas
It is essential for teachers to use concrete examples to bridge the gap between simple mathematics and symbolic reasoning, rather than forcing students to jump to abstractness unassisted. A few examples are given below.
Solving an equation such as 3x + 10 = 100 can be introduced in the form of a story. ‘I went to a shop and gave the shopkeeper Rs 100 asking for three candies. He gave me three candies and also Rs 10 as balance. What is the price that I have paid for a candy?’ The gradual introduction of a variable will be made easier with such narratives.
Equations can also be framed as games of balancing on a scale to understand what you do to one side of the scale need to be done on the other side too to maintain balance. (See figure 1)
Factorisation is an area that many students struggle with. The need for a quadratic expression to be converted to a product can be shown through tiles that need to be fully covered in a rectangular area. Factors of X^2 + 5x + 6 can be manipulated with tiles as shown below to obtain the answer as (x + 3)(x + 2). (See figure 2)
With such demonstration, symbols lose their mystical quality.
Embrace mistakes as stepping stones
Errors should be treated as valuable diagnostic data by the teachers where the students are able to dissect where a problem went wrong. Creating a supportive learning environment that normalises mistakes as learning opportunities helps reduce anxiety and encourages persistence.
Assessment should also be done to reward logical reasoning and correct algebraic procedures without giving too much weight to minor arithmetical errors. Formative assessments need to be conducted regularly as algebra is introduced, before the students become overwhelmed by the complexities of cumulative assessments.
Connect with real life applications
Many students fail to see how algebra connects to everyday life, making it harder for them to stay motivated. Wherever possible, teachers can demonstrate practical uses of algebra such as tracking expenses to find the balance remaining after expenditure, estimating travel time or fuel consumption, use of recipes dealing with proportion, tiling the floor of a room and finding measurements for a scaled model of a building. Showing how algebra helps in designing games or solving real-world problems enhances interest and comprehension.
Algebra may feel intimidating at first, but it is an opportunity for students to sharpen their reasoning, resilience and problem-solving skills. When the anxiety is eliminated, algebra reveals itself as an extremely useful and elegant toolkit for problem solving. Using appropriate teaching methods algebra can be transformed from an intimidating barrier into a powerful bridge to intellectual exercise. “An ounce of algebra is worth a ton of verbal argument.” said John Haldane.
(The writer is a senior mathematics examiner of the International Baccalaureate Organisation)
Features
Two Badulla forests covering nearly 200 hectares gazetted as reserves
By Ifham Nizam
Two forest areas in the Badulla District — Mahiyanganaya Moopalana, covering 29.79 hectares, and Mahiyanganaya Heerussagala, covering 168.09 hectares — have been officially gazetted as forest reserves, bringing a combined 197.88 hectares of ecologically important land under formal protection.
The two forests, located in the Riddimaliyadda Divisional Secretariat Division within the Mahiyanganaya forest range, are dry-monsoon forests that provide habitats for a variety of native plant and animal species.
The declarations form part of the Government’s Vanaspathi forest conservation programme, under which 20 forests, covering a total of 9,538.68 hectares, across six districts, were granted protected status. The latest additions have taken the forest area, protected under the programme, to nearly 65,000 hectares, according to reports.
Environment Minister Dr. Dammika Patabendi and Deputy Minister Anton Jayakody were associated with the conservation programme.
Commenting on the significance of the declarations, Dr. Patabendi said the reserves are intended to deliver long-term environmental, ecological and social benefits.
“Through the declaration of these reserves, we aim to protect Sri Lanka’s biodiversity, safeguard water sources and watershed areas, create opportunities for eco-tourism, and preserve areas of archaeological importance found within these forests,” the Minister said.
Moopalana Forest
The 29.79-hectare Moopalana Forest is a dry-monsoon forest containing a range of natural resources and providing habitat for native species.
The forest is also linked to the livelihoods of surrounding rural communities. Local people obtain forest-based products such as rattan, veniwel and kitul, making the area significant, not only for biodiversity conservation, but also for traditional livelihood activities.
Several small waterways that become active during the rainy season are also found within the forest.
Heerussagala Forest
The larger 168.09-hectare Heerussagala Forest is likewise a dry-monsoon forest with important ecological resources and habitats for native flora and fauna.
The forest also has a direct connection with the local water system, with Nagadeepa Wewa being fed by the forest area.
Adding to its significance is the nearby Nagadeepa Temple, an area associated with archaeological value.
The protection of the forest, therefore, encompasses ecological, water-resource and cultural considerations.
The Ministry of Environment states that its broader approach to environmental management is based on sustainable natural-resource management, with government agencies, communities and other stakeholders participating in conservation efforts.
The gazetting of Moopalana and Heerussagala consequently places nearly 200 hectares of Badulla’s dry-monsoon forest under formal protection, strengthening the legal framework for conserving their biodiversity, water resources and associated cultural values.
The two forests are among 20 forest areas officially declared reserves in the latest phase of the Vanaspathi programme, which covers forests in Badulla, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya and Vavuniya.
For the communities surrounding these forests, their protection also represents the preservation of natural resources that support local livelihoods and water systems — while ensuring that these forest ecosystems remain part of Sri Lanka’s natural heritage for future generations, says Environment Ministry Consultant Dr. Ravindra Kariyawasam.
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