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Midweek Review

Will the electorate be influenced by MPs switching sides, new alliances and foreign interventions?

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By Shamindra Ferdinando

Against the backdrop of realignment of political parties represented in Parliament in the run-up to the presidential election on Sept. 21, it would be pertinent to examine the status of the electorate. Would the electorate follow their representatives in Parliament as they switched allegiance to various presidential candidates? Could they be influenced by turncoat parliamentarians whose political intentions generally depend on personal benefits? That is the ugly truth the electorate must come to terms with.

There’ll be about 1.1 million new voters among 17.1 mn eligible to vote at the presidential election.

Before we discuss the forthcoming presidential poll, let me remind the readers of the composition of the current Parliament. The Parliament consists of 196 elected on a district basis and 29 chosen from the National List.

Fifteen recognized political parties are represented in the Parliament. The following are the political parties and the number of seats they won at the last parliamentary election conducted in August 2020. The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP/145 seats), Samagi Jana Balwegaya (SJB/54), Illankai Thamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK/10), Jathika Jana Balawegaya (JJB/03), Eelam People’s Democratic Party (EPDP/02), Ahila Ilankai Thamil Congress (AITC/02) and the remaining nine parties, namely Thamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP), Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), Muslim National Alliance (MNA), Thamil Makkal Thesiya Kuttani (TMTK), All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC), National Congress (NC), Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), United National Party (UNP) and Our Power of People Party (OPPP) secured one seat each.

The number of seats mentioned above included National List slots. Of the 29 NL slots, the SLPP secured 17 and the SJB 07 whereas five other parties-ITAK, JJB, AITC, UNP and OPPP obtained one each.

However, the SLPP has been fragmented to such an extent and in disarray, the party faces a catastrophic situation. The Rajapaksas-led SLPP that handsomely won the last Local Government polls (Feb. 2018), Presidential Polls (Nov. 2019) and the General Election (Aug. 2020) is approaching a real moment of truth. In spite of the likes of its National Organizer Namal Rajapaksa, Johnston Fernando and retired Navy Chief of Staff Sarath Weerasekera continuing to put on a brave face, the ground situation is deteriorating rapidly and the party seems to be in dire straits.

The failure on the part of the ruling party to name its presidential candidate, ahead of President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s declaration of him as an independent candidate, exposed the SLPP badly.

The SLPP has repeatedly assured that its candidate would be disclosed today (07). Business tycoon Dhammika Perera, who had been accommodated in the SLPP National List, in June 2022, in place of Basil Rajapaksa, is widely believed to be their choice. Newcomer Perera, who served as Investment Promotion Minister during Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s presidency (June-July 2022), faces a daunting challenge in obtaining a respectable final count if the former people’s president Mahinda Rajapaksa, too, has been abandoned by his ardent supporters.

Lawmaker Namal Rajapaksa seems still confident that their candidate Dhammika Perera, or a last minute change, could still win the presidential race. With the SLPP’s backing, wartime Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who had absolutely no experience in politics, secured a staggering 6.9 mn at the last presidential poll. With the original SLPP parliamentary group divided among presidential candidates, UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, SJB leader Sajith Premadasa, MJP leader Dilith Jayaweera and yet to be named SLPP contestant, in terms of numbers, the incumbent President seems to be in the lead. But that could be a grave mistake on the part of the Wickremesinghe’s camp. The number of turncoats does not necessarily mean voters will follow especially because of undying loyalty professed by many to ex-President Mahinda. Even after he was trounced at the January 2015 presidential election and he silently withdrew into his Medamulana abode, it was the ordinary Sinhala masses having realized the anti-national frauds who were elected to replace Rajapaksas, went in their hundreds, if not thousands, daily, as if in pilgrimage, to plead with him to return to national politics. What would have swayed the masses was his natural appeal in his ability to interact with them. He was one leader who made Temple Trees an open house for ordinary people to come and have a meal at their leader’s palace, at least on Wesak days each year. He actually showed his mettle to not only to our masses, but to the whole world when he literally told a delegation of powerful entities from the West, like then British Foreign Secretary David Miliband and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, to get lost when they tried to arm twist him into saving terrorist numero uno Velupillai Prabhakaran and his band as they were facing total annihilation in Wanni in 2009.

The SLPP appears to be confident that the voters wouldn’t go along with those who had treacherously pledged their support to Wickremesinghe, Premadasa and Dilith Jayaweera at the expense of the party they represented in Parliament. Dr. Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, PC, another SLPP MP, is in the fray as the candidate of the National Democratic Front (NDF). Former Justice Minister Rajapakshe is unlikely to attract any sitting MPs representing the SLPP or any other party. He must be relying on his sizeable caste vote to make a strong showing rather than an actual victory.

Impact of Aragalaya on voters

In the absence of proper examination of the events leading to Aragalaya, or change of government through unconstitutional means in July 2022, the SLPP or any other political party represented in Parliament lacked understanding of the ground situation. Therefore, political parties face the first national election in less than 50 days without proper comprehension of the developing situation and the forces working behind the scene.

Instead of seeking political advantage, political parties, represented in Parliament, should have sought to examine the circumstances leading to the eruption of the violent public protest campaign outside President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s residence at Pangiriwatte, Mirihana, on the night of March 31, 2022. Even though the US definitely wanted to oust Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the global power couldn’t have achieved its objectives without the SLPP’s unintentional or deliberately flawed decisions contributing to the crisis with economic hitmen working within.

The SLPP parliamentary group cannot absolve itself of the responsibility for the ruination of the economy. Similarly, the UNP and SJB, under any circumstances, cannot deny their culpability for the massive Treasury bond scams perpetrated by the Yahapalana regime in 2015 (February) and 2016 (March) under the then Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe’s watch and still unexplained commercial borrowings. Over USD 10,000 million in new International Sovereign Bonds at high interest that were taken between 2015 and 2019 broke the economy.

The truth is an explosive mixture of domestic and international issues brought Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s government under pressure. The operation got underway within a week after Gotabaya Rajapaksa won the 2019 presidential election with the Swiss Embassy, in Colombo, staging the Garnier Francis drama that even captured the attention of the New York Times.

The swift and decisive exposure of the Swiss and their local counterparts should have alerted the Gotabaya Rajapaksa administration. Unfortunately, the powers that be caused a catastrophic situation by a series of ill-fated decisions. The Covid-19 pandemic made the situation far worse, coupled with unprecedented tax cuts, including pruning of Value Added Tax (VAT) from 15% to 8%, crippled the national economy. Who really advised President Gotabaya Rajapaksa not to reverse the decisions in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis? Or was it his pure stubbornness, coming from a military background?

The entire Cabinet-of-Ministers should be held responsible for the outrageous decision to do away with taxes at a time the country was experiencing severe economic difficulties. In fact, Sri Lanka effected tax cuts, regardless of specific warning issued by the IMF. No less than incumbent Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe exposed the guilty lot when he appeared before a parliamentary watchdog committee in May 2022.

The arrival of a ship-load of allegedly toxic Chinese fertiliser, in the wake of a sudden decision to stop all chemical fertiliser imports in May 2021, Sri Lanka’s refusal to accept the consignment that led to a diplomatic tussle and the blacklisting of a State-owned bank, unsettled the country. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa made the ill-fated announcement as regards the ban on chemical fertiliser on April 22, 2021, at the President’s House. The President was flanked by Presidential Secretary Dr. P. B. Jayasundera, Senior Presidential Advisor Lalith Weeratunga and Finance Secretary S.R. Attygalle.

The sugar tax scam, too, contributed to the government’s downfall. Regardless of the relentless media attacks, and with the Opposition taking it up both in and outside Parliament, the government conveniently turned a blind eye as it would have been their way of paying back their election financiers.

Until the announcement of the Presidential Polls results, the impact of Aragalaya wouldn’t be known. Those who had really suffered as a result of the economic-political-social crisis caused in 2022 are likely to be the easiest to manipulate though public and private sector workers and their families are expected to reflect their discontent with the system.

It would be prudent to examine how the ex-military and police, as well as the serving officers and men, respond to political campaigns. The JJB and SJB are engaged in a fierce contest for those votes, with both making headway. The SJB appears to have consolidated its campaign meant to attract ex-military and serving officers and men in the face of JJB making early gains. Both parties seemed to be quite cleverly exploiting the ‘military vote’ bank as other contenders (Wickremesinghe and SLPP) lacked a cohesive strategy to entice them.

Yahapalana Army Chief General Mahesh Senanayake, one of the unsuccessful candidates at the 2019 presidential election, has joined the SJB campaign. Senanayake polled just over 49,000 votes and was placed fourth on the list of candidates. Gotabaya Rajapaksa polled 6,924,255 votes (52.25%) whereas Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake obtained 5,564,239 (41.99%) and 418,553 (3.16%), respectively. Senanayake polled a paltry 49,655 (0.37%).

Past Presidential Polls

Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka on Monday (05) declared his intention to join the presidential fray by paying the stipulated deposit. There had never been so many prominent candidates at any previous presidential polls and the contest was always between two major political groups. However, the entry of several prominent candidates may cause quite disturbing impact on the electorate and may impede the contestant polling the highest number of votes reaching 51% of the votes cast.

The war-winning Army Chief suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of Mahinda Rajapaksa at the 2010 presidential election. Fonseka, in spite of being backed by the UNP-led coalition that included the JVP, TNA, SLMC, and out rightly supported by Western interests, led by the US, was trounced by Mahinda Rajapaksa. Fonseka lost by a staggering 1.8 mn votes and was abandoned by the UNP. The rest is history.

At the first presidential election held on Oct 20, 1982 there were six candidates. J. R. Jayewardene (UNP) 3,450,811 (52.91%), Hector Kobbekaduwa (SLFP) 2,548,438 (39.07%), Rohana Wijeweera (JVP) 273,428 (4.19%), Kumar Ponnambalam (ACTC) 173,934 (2.67%), Colvin R. de Silva (LSSP) 58,531 (0.90%) and Vasudeva Nanayakkara (NSSP) 17,005 (0.26%).

Of them, only Vasudeva Nanayakkara, now 85, represents the current Parliament (SLPP Ratnapura District) and the one-time LSSP/NSSP firebrand is unlikely to contest the next general election.

Close on the heels of the presidential election victory, JRJ, in a disgraceful bid to consolidate power in Parliament, staged a rigged national referendum on December 22, 1982, using state resources to the maximum. The referendum gave JRJ the opportunity to extend the life of Parliament by six years, thereby thwarted the possibility of losing his party UNP’s massive (5/6) supermajority in Parliament that it secured in 1977.

The second presidential election was held on December 19, 1988, amidst countrywide violence with the Indian Army deployed in the Northern and Eastern provinces in terms of the Indo-Lanka accord signed on July 29, 1987. The South was on fire with the JVP-led insurgency in full swing. There had been only three candidates with both the UNP and SLFP in the fray. Ranasinghe Premadasa (UNP) won the contest by polling 2,569,199 (50.43%), Sirimavo Bandaranaike (SLFP) obtained 2,289,86 (44.95%) and Ossie Abeygunasekera (Sri Lanka Mahajana Pakshaya) 235,719 (4.63%).

By the time Sri Lanka went for its third presidential election, on November 09, 1994, the SLFP had been transformed to People’s Alliance (PA) and was able to bring the 17-year-old UNP reign to an end. There had been six contestants again with Srima Dissanayake replacing her assassinated husband Gamini Dissanayake. The LTTE, in an obvious bid to manipulate and influence the electorate, assassinated Dissanayake at a public rally at Thotalanga on the night of October 23, 1994.

PA candidate Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga polled 4,709,205 (62.28%), Srima Dissanayake (UNP) 2,715,283 (35.91%), Hudson Samarasinghe (Independent) 58,886 (0.78%), Harischandra Wijayatunga (Sinhalaye Mahasammatha Bhoomiputra Pakshaya) 32,651 (0.43%), A. J. Ranasinghe (Independent) 22,752 (0.30%) and Nihal Galappaththi (Sri Lanka Progressive Front) 22,749 (0.30%).

The fourth presidential poll was again marred by unprecedented violence. The LTTE made an abortive bid to assassinate PA candidate Kumaratunga on December 19, 1999, just two days before the election, in Colombo, while another suicide attack claimed the life of former Army Chief of Staff Lakshman Algama campaigning for UNP candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe. Altogether there had been 13 candidates with interested parties fielding proxies.

Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga (PA) polled 4,312,157 (51.12%), Ranil Wickremasinghe (UNP) 3,602,743 ( 42.71%), Nandana Gunathilake (JVP) 344,173 (4.08%), Harischandra Wijayatunga (Sinhalaye Mahasammatha Bhoomiputra Pakshaya) 35,854 (0.43%), W.V.M. Ranjith (Independent) 27,052 ( 0.32%), Rajiva Wijesinha (Liberal Party) 25,085 ( (0.30%), Vasudeva Nanayakkara (Left & Democratic Alliance) 23,668 ( 0.28%), Tennyson Edirisuriya (Independent) 21,119 (0.25%), Abdul Rasool (Sri Lanka Muslim Party) 17,359 (0.21%), Kamal Karunadasa (People’s Liberation Solidarity Front) 11,333 (0.13%), Hudson Samarasinghe (Independent) 7,184 (0.09%), Ariyawansa Dissanayaka (Democratic United National Front) 4,039 (0.05%) and A. W. Premawardhana (Bahujana Nidahas Peramuna) 3,983 (0.05%).

The fifth presidential election held on November 17, 2005, was called amidst increased threat posed by the LTTE. Against the backdrop of the assassination of Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar, the war seemed imminent and unavoidable. Like the previous election, there had been 13 candidates. Initially, there had been serious doubts whether the election would be held at all. As incumbent President Kumaratunga had called the 1999 election one year ahead of schedule, she asserted and argued that the extra year should be appended to her second term. The Supreme Court rejected her move and the election went ahead.

Mahinda Rajapaksa (UPFA) won by polling 4,887,152 (50.29%), Ranil Wickremesinghe (UNP) 4,706,366 (48.43%), Siritunga Jayasuriya (United Socialist Party) 35,425 ( 0.36%), A. A. Suraweera (National Development Front) 31,238 (0.32%), Victor Hettigoda (United Lanka People’s Party) 14,458 (0.15%), Chamil Jayaneththi (New Left Front ) 9,296 (0.10%), Aruna de Soyza (Ruhuna People’s Party) 7,685 (0.08%), Wimal Geeganage (Sri Lanka National Front) 6,639 (0.07%), Anura de Silva (United Lalith Front) 6,357 (0.07%), Ajith Arachchige, (Democratic Unity Alliance) 5,082 (0.05%), Wije Dias Socialist Equality Party 3,500 (0.04%), Nelson Perera (Sri Lanka Progressive Front) 2,525 (0.03%) and Hewaheenipellage Dharmadwaja (United National Alternative Front) 1,316 (0.01%).

However, the sixth presidential election, conducted on January 26, 2010, saw proxies and some seeking to attract limelight (at the previous elections, too, there had been some joining the fray for their own sake). In the absence of any sort of restrictions /safeguards, 22 contested the first presidential poll after the eradication of the LTTE. Mahinda Rajapaksa polled a staggering 6,015,934 (57.88%) to beat General Sarath Fonseka who managed to secure 4,173,185 (40.15%).

At the 2015 presidential that had been convincingly won by Maithripala Sirisena (New Democratic Front) by polling 6,217,162 (51.28%) there were 19 candidates. Mahinda Rajapaksa, who enacted 18th Amendment to enable him to contest, managed to get 5,768,090 (47.58%).

The last presidential election saw a record number of contestants with, for the first time, the number on the ballot paper passing the 30 mark. The election, handsomely won by Gotabaya Rajapaksa, was contested by 35.

Of them, only Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Sajith Premadasa polled more than 500,000 votes. Anura Kumara Dissanayake polled over 400,000 and the rest polled less than 50,000, ranging from 900 to 49,000.

The forthcoming presidential poll that’ll decide Sri Lanka’s fate depends on its outcome and the workable agenda for a bankrupt country.

External interventions will play a crucial role in the election with geopolitics being a key factor in post-Aragalaya Sri Lanka. Two major parties involved in the Aragalaya – the JVP-led JJB and Jana Aragala Sandhanaya that fields lawyer Nuwan Bopage should attract public attention as the importance of their strategic role cannot be underestimated.

****

Is recent history repeating in the South Asia region?

The longest serving Premier of Bangladesh Sheihk Hasina, of the Awami League party, was forced to resign on Monday in the face of a mounting wave of protests and counter action by her government that killed nearly 300 people since mid-July. She took refuge in India after fleeing aboard a Bangladesh Air Force C 130.

The relatively new country Bangladesh was created in 1971 following a successful rebellion against high handed Pakistani rule over Bengalis in the then East Pakistan, launched by her late father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman after Islamabad refused to recognize his popular election victory with predominantly Bengali votes of East Pakistan and jailed by the then rulers.

Most unfortunately Sheikh Mujibur Rahman himself was killed by disgruntled elements in his own Army, along with his entire family, barring Hasina and her sister Rezhana during a subsequent coup in August 1975.

Many compared the 76-year-old leader’s ouster with the forcing out of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa following a similar protest campaign alleged to have been backed by the US. Rajapaksa resigned though India advised him against doing so.

Over two years after Rajapaksa’s ouster the circumstances leading to his ouster remained uninvestigated and unexamined. The role of the Muslim community as a whole in Rajapaksa’s ouster in the wake of the Easter Sunday repercussions and cremation of Covid-19 victims, as well as the Catholic Church interventions, remained to be properly examined. Perhaps, against the backdrop of Hasina’s ouster, Sri Lanka can take a fresh look at the Aragalaya as well as post-Aragalaya issues.



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Midweek Review

Dr. Jaishankar drags H’tota port to reverberating IRIS Dena affair

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Sri Lanka reached an agreement with China to build the Hambantota port after India declined the then President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s request to take charge of the high profile project. The Indian decision may have been influenced by the war raging in the northern region at that time.

Indian Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar recognised Hambantota harbour as a Chinese military facility that underlined intimidating foreign military presence in the Indian Ocean. Jaishankar was responding to queries regarding India’s widely mentioned status as the region’s net security provider against the backdrop of a US submarine blowing up an Iranian frigate IRIS Dena, off Galle, within Sri Lanka’s Exclusive Economic Zone.

This happened at the Raisina Dialogue 2026 (March 5 to 7) in New Delhi. Raisina Dialogue was launched in 2016, three years after Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister.

The query obviously rattled the Indian Foreign Minister. Urging the moderator, Ms. Pakli Sharma Ipadhyay, to understand, what he called, the reality of the Indian Ocean, Dr. Jaishankar pointed out the joint US-British presence at Diego Garcia over the past five decades. Then he referred to the Chinese presence at Djibouti in East Africa, the first overseas Chinese military base, established in 2017, and Chinese takeover of Hambantota port, also during the same time. China secured the strategically located port on a 99-year lease for USD 1.2 bn, under controversial circumstances. China succeeded in spite of Indian efforts to halt Chinese projects here, including Colombo port city.

The submarine involved is widely believed to be Virginia-class USS Minnesota. The crew, included three Australian Navy personnel, according to international news agencies. However, others named the US Navy fast-attack submarine, involved in the incident, as USS Charlotte.

Diego Garcia is responsible for military operations in the Middle East, Africa and the Indo-Pacific. Dr. Jaishankar didn’t acknowledge that India, a key US ally and member of the Quad alliance, operated P8A maritime patrol and reconnaissance flights out of Diego Garcia last October. The US-India-Israel relationship is growing along with the US-Sri Lanka partnership.

The Indian Foreign Minister emphasised the deployment of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, one of the countries that had been attacked by Iran, following the US-Israeli assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader, and key government functionaries, in a massive surprise attack, aiming at a regime change there. The Indian Minister briefly explained how they and Sri Lanka addressed the threat on three Indian navy vessels following the unprovoked US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Whatever the excuses, the undeniable truth is, as Sharma pointed out, that the US attack on the Iranian frigate took place in India’s backyard.

Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath who faced Sharma before Dr. Jaishankar, struggled to explain the country’s position. Dr. Jaishankar made the audience laugh at Minister Herath’s expense who repeatedly said that Sri Lanka would deal with the situation in terms of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and international laws. Herath should have pointed out that Hambantota was not a military base and couldn’t be compared, under any circumstances, with the Chinese base in Djibouti.

Typical of the arrogant Western power dynamics, the US never cared for international laws and President Donald Trump quite clearly stated their position.

Israel is on record as having declared that the decision to launch attacks on Iran had been made months ago. Therefore, the sinking of the fully domestically built vessel that was launched in 2021 should be examined in the context of overall US-Israeli strategy meant to break the back of the incumbent Islamic revolutionary government and replace it with a pro-Western regime there as had been the case after the toppling of the democratically elected government there, led by Prime Minister Mossadegh, in August, 1953.

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth declared that IRIS Dena “thought it was safe in international waters’ but died a quiet death.” A US submarine torpedoed the vessel on the morning of March 4, off Galle, within Sri Lanka’s exclusive economic zone and that decision must have been made before the IRIS Dena joined International Fleet Review (IFR) and Exercise Milan 2026, at Visakhapatnam, from February 15 to 25.

The sinking of the Iranian vessel, a Moudge –class frigate attached to Iran’s southern fleet deployed in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz, had been calculated to cause mayhem in the Indian Ocean. Obviously, and pathetically, Iran failed to comprehend the US-Israeli mindset after having already been fooled with devastating attacks, jointly launched by Washington and Tel Aviv against the country’s nuclear research facilities, while holding talks with it on the issue last June. Had they comprehended the situation they probably would have pulled out of the IFR and Milan 2026. Perhaps, Iran was lulled into a false sense of security because they felt the US wouldn’t hit ships invited by India. The US Navy did not participate though the US Air Force did.

The US action dramatically boosted Raisina Dialogue 2026, but at India’s expense. Prime Minister Modi’s two-day visit to Tel Aviv, just before the US-Israel launched the war to effect a regime change in Teheran, made the situation far worse. BJP seems to have decided on whose side India is on. But, the US action has, invariably, humiliated India. That cannot be denied. The Indian Navy posted a cheery message on X on February 17, the day before President Droupadi Murmu presided over IFR off the Visakhapatnam coast. “Welcome!” the Indian Navy wrote, greeting the Iranian warship IRIS Dena as it steamed into the port of Visakhapatnam to join an international naval gathering. Photographs showed Iranian sailors and a grey frigate gliding into the Indian harbour on a clear day. The hashtags spoke of “Bridges of Friendship” and “United Through Oceans.”

US alert

Dr. Jaishankar

Altogether, three Iranian vessels participated in IFR. In addition to the ill-fated IRIS Dena, the second frigate IRIS Lavan and auxiliary ships IRIS Bushehr comprised the group. Dr. Jaishankar disclosed at the Raisina Dialogue 2026 that Iran requested India to allow IRIS Lavan to enter Indian waters. India accommodated the vessel at Cochin Port (Kochi Port) on the Arabian Sea in Kerala.

At the time US torpedoed IRIS Dena, within Sri Lanka’s EEZ, IRIS Lavan was at Cochin port. Sri Lanka’s territorial waters extend 12 nautical miles (approximately 22 km) from the country’s coastline. The US hit the vessel 19 nautical miles off southern coastline.

Sri Lanka, too, participated in IFR and Milan 2026. SLN Sagara (formerly Varaha), a Vikram-class offshore patrol vessel of the Indian Coast Guard and SLN Nandimithra, A Fast Missile Vessel, acquired from Israel, participated and returned to Colombo on February 27, the day before IRIS Lavan sought protection in Indian waters.

Although many believed that Sri Lanka responded to the attack on IRIS Dena, following a distressed call from that ship, the truth is it was the Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) that alerted the Maritime Rescue Coordination centre (MRCC) after blowing it up with a single torpedo. The SLN’s Southern Command dispatched three Fast Attack Craft (FACs) while a tug from Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA) joined later.

The INDOPACOM, while denying the Iranian claim that IRIS Dena had been unarmed at the time of the attack, emphasised: “US forces planned for and Sri Lanka provided life-saving support to survivors in accordance with the Law of Armed Conflict.” In the post shared on X (formerly Twitter) the US has, in no uncertain terms, said that they planned for the rescuing of survivors and the action was carried out by the Sri Lanka Navy.

IRIS Lavan and IRIS Bushehr are most likely to be held in Cochin and in Trincomalee ports, respectively, for some time with the crews accommodated on land. With the US-Israel combine vowing to go the whole hog there is no likelihood of either India or Sri Lanka allowing the ships to leave.

Much to the embarrassment of the Modi administration, former Indian Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal has said that IRIS Dena would not have been targeted if Iran was not invited to take part in IFR and Milan naval exercise.

“We were the hosts. As per protocol for this exercise, ships cannot carry any ammunition. It was defenseless. The Iranian naval personnel had paraded before our president,” he said in a post on X.

Sibal argued that the attack was premeditated, pointing out that the US Navy had been invited to the exercise but withdrew at the last minute, “presumably with this operation in mind.”

Sibal added that the US ignored India’s sensitivities, as the Iranian ship was present in the waters due to India’s invitation.

He stressed that India was neither politically nor militarily responsible for the US attack, but carried a moral and humanitarian responsibility.

“A word of condolence by the Indian Navy (after political clearance) at the loss of lives of those who were our invitees and saluted our president would be in order,” Sibal said.

Iran and even India appeared to have ignored the significance of USN pullout from IFR and Milan exercise at the eleventh hour. India and Sri Lanka caught up in US-Israeli strategy are facing embarrassing questions from the political opposition. Both Congress and Samagi Jana Balwegaya (SJB), as well as Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), exploited the situation to undermine respective governments over an unexpected situation created by the US. Both India and Sri Lanka ended up playing an unprecedented role in the post-Milan 2026 developments that may have a lasting impact on their relations with Iran.

The regional power India and Sri Lanka also conveniently failed to condemn the February 28 assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while that country was holding talks with the US, with Oman serving as the mediator.

Condemning the unilateral attack on Iran, as well as the retaliatory strikes by Iran, Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Tuesday (March 3, 2026) questioned India’s silence on the Middle East developments.

In a post on social media platform X, Gandhi said Prime Minister Narendra Modi must speak up. “Does he support the assassination of a Head of State as a way to define the world order? Silence now diminishes India’s standing in the world,” he said.

Under heavy Opposition fire, India condoled the Iranian leader’s assassination on March 5, almost a week after the killing. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met the Iran Ambassador in Delhi and signed the condolence book, though much belatedly.

SL-US relations

The Opposition questioned the NPP government’s handling of the IRIS Dena affair. They quite conveniently forgot that any other government wouldn’t have been able to do anything differently than bow to the will of the US. Under President Trump, Washington has been behaving recklessly, even towards its longtime friends, demanding that Canada become its 51st state and that Denmark handover Greenland pronto.

SJB and Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa cut a sorry figure demanding in Parliament whether Sri Lanka had the capacity to detect submarines or other underwater systems. Sri Lanka should be happy that the Southern Command could swiftly deploy three FACs and call in SLPA tug, thereby saving the lives of 32 Iranians and recovering 84 bodies of their unfortunate colleagues. Therefore, of the 180-member crew of IRIS Dena, 116 had been accounted for. The number of personnel categorised as missing but presumably dead is 64.

There is no doubt that Sri Lanka couldn’t have intervened if not for the US signal to go ahead with the humanitarian operation to pick up survivors. India, too, must have informed the US about the Iranian request for IRIS Lavan to re-enter Indian waters. Sri Lanka, too, couldn’t have brought the Iranian auxiliary vessel without US consent. President Trump is not interested in diplomatic niceties and the way he had dealt with European countries repeatedly proved his reckless approach. The irrefutable truth is that the US could have torpedoed the entire Iranian group even if they were in Sri Lankan or Indian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) that extends to 200 nautical miles from its coastline.

In spite of constantly repeating Sri Lanka’s neutrality, successive governments succumbed to US pressure. In March 2007, Mahinda Rajapaksa’s government entered into Acquisition and Cross- Servicing Agreement (ACSA) with the US, a high profile bilateral legal mechanism to ensure uninterrupted support/supplies. The Rajapaksas went ahead with ACSA, in spite of strong opposition from some of its partners. In fact, they did not even bother to ask or take up the issue at Cabinet level before the then Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa, a US citizen at the time, and US Ambassador here Robert O. Blake signed it. Close on the heels of the ACSA signing, the US provided specific intelligence that allowed the Sri Lanka Navy to hunt down four floating LTTE arsenals. Whatever critics say, that US intervention ensured the total disruption of the LTTE supply line and the collapse of their conventional fighting capacity by March 2009. The US favourably responded to the then Vice Admiral Wasantha Karannagoda’s request for help and the passing of intelligence was not in any way in line with ACSA.

That agreement covered the 2007 to 2017 period. The Yahapalana government extended it. Yahapalana partners, the SLFP and UNP, never formally discussed the decision to extend the agreement though President Maithripala Sirisena made a desperate attempt to distance himself from ACSA.

It would be pertinent to mention that the US had been pushing for ACSA during Rail Wickremesinghe’s tenure as the Premier, in the 2001-2003 period. But, he lacked the strength to finalise that agreement due to strong opposition from the then Opposition. During the time the Yahapalana government extended ACSA, the US also wanted the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) signed. SOFA, unlike ACSA, is a legally binding agreement that dealt with the deployment of US forces here. However, SOFA did not materialise but the possibility of the superpower taking it up cannot be ruled out.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who won the 2019 presidential election, earned the wrath of the US for declining to finalise MCC (Millennium Challenge Corporation) Compact on the basis of Prof. Gunaruwan Committee report that warned that the agreement contained provisions detrimental to national security, sovereignty, and the legal system. In the run up to the presidential election, UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe declared that he would enter into the agreement in case Sajith Premadasa won the contest.

Post-Aragalaya setup

Since the last presidential election held in September 2024, Admiral Steve Koehler, a four-star US Navy Admiral and Commander of the US Pacific Fleet visited Colombo twice in early October 2024 and February this year. Koehler’s visits marked the highest-level U.S. military engagement with Sri Lanka since 2021.

Between Koehler’s visits, the United States and Sri Lanka signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) formalising the defence partnership between the Montana National Guard, the US Coast Guard District 13, and the Sri Lanka Armed Forces under the Department of War’s State Partnership Programme (SPP). The JVP-led NPP government seems sure of its policy as it delayed taking a decision on one-year moratorium on all foreign research vessels entering Sri Lankan waters though it was designed to block Chinese vessels. The government is yet to announce its decision though the ban lapsed on December 31, 2024.

The then President Ranil Wickremesinghe was compelled to announce the ban due to intense US-Indian pressure.

The incumbent dispensation’s relationship with US and India should be examined against allegations that they facilitated ‘Aragalaya’ that forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa out of office. The Trump administration underscored the importance of its relationship with Sri Lanka by handing over ex-US Coast Guard Cutter ‘Decisive ‘to the Sri Lanka Navy. The vessel, commanded by Captain Gayan Wickramasooriya, left Baltimore US Coast Guard Yard East Wall Jetty on February 23 and is expected to reach Trincomalee in the second week of May.

Last year Sri Lanka signed seven MoUs, including one on defence and then sold controlling shares of the Colombo Dockyard Limited (CDL) to a company affiliated to the Defence Ministry as New Delhi tightened its grip.

Sri Lanka-US relations seemed on track and the IRIS Dena incident is unlikely to distract the two countries. The US continues to take extraordinary measures to facilitate war on Iran. In a bid to overcome the Iranian blockade on crude carriers the US temporarily eased sanctions to allow India to buy Russian oil.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared a 30-day waiver was a “deliberate short-term measure” to allow oil to keep flowing in the global market. The US sanctioned Russian oil following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, forcing buyers to seek alternatives.

The US doesn’t care about the Ukraine government that must be really upset about the unexpected development. India was forced to halt buying Russian oil and now finds itself in a position to turn towards Russia again. But that would be definitely at the expense of Iran facing unprecedented military onslaught.

By Shamindra Ferdinando

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Midweek Review

A Living Legend of the Peradeniya Tradition:

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Prof. H. L. Seneviratne

A Tribute to Professor H. L. Seneviratne – Part I

My earliest memories of the eminent anthropologist, Professor H. L. Seneviratne date back to my childhood, when I first encountered his name through the vivid accounts of campus life shared by my late brother, Sugathapala de Silva, then a lecturer in the Department of Sinhala at the University of Peradeniya. By the time I became a first-year sociology student in 1968/69, I had the privilege of being taught by the Professor, whose guidance truly paved the way for my own progression in sociology and anthropology. Even then, it was clear that he was a towering presence—not just as an academician, but as a central figure in the lively cultural and literary renaissance that defined that era of the university’s intellectual history.

 H.L. Seneviratne stood alongside a galaxy of intellectuals who shaped and developed the literary consciousness of the Peradeniya University. His professorial research made regular appearances in journals such as Sanskriti and Mimamsa, published Sinhala and English articles, and served as channels for the dissemination of the literary consciousness of Peradeniya to the population at large. These texts were living texts of a dynamic intellectual ferment where the synthesis of classical aesthetic sensibilities with current critical intellectual thought in contemporary Sri Lanka was under way.

The concept of a ‘Peradeniya tradition or culture’, a term which would later become legendary in Sri Lankan literary and intellectual circles, was already being formed at this time. Peradeniya culture came to represent a distinctive synthesis: cosmopolitanism entwined with well-rooted local customs, aesthetic innovation based on classical Sinhala styles, and critical interaction with modernity. Among its pre-eminent practitioners were intellectual giants such as Ediriweera Sarachchandra, Gunadasa Amarasekara, and Siri Gunasinghe. These figures and H.L. Seneviratne himself, were central to the shaping of a space of cultural and literary critique that ranged from newspapers to book-length works, public speeches to theatrical performance.

Unlimited influence

H.L. Seneviratne’s influence was not limited to the printed page, which I discuss in this article. He operated in and responded to the performative, interactive space of drama and music, situating lived artistic practice in his cultural thought. I recall with vividness the late 1950s, a period seared into my memory as one of revelation, when I as a child was fortunate enough to witness one of the first performances of Maname, the trailblazing Sinhala drama that revolutionised Sri Lankan theatre. Drawn from the Nadagam tradition and staged in the open-air theatre in Peradeniya—now known as Sarachchandra Elimahan Ranga Pitaya—or Wala as used by the campus students.  Maname was not so much a play as a culturally transformative experience.

H.L. Seneviratne was not just an observer of this change. He joined the orchestra of Maname staged on November 3, 1956, lending his voice and presence to the collective heartbeat of the performance. He even contributed to the musical group by playing the esraj, a quiet but vital addition to the performance’s beauty and richness. Apart from these roles, he played an important part in the activities of Professor Sarathchandra’s Sinhala Drama Society, a talent nursery and centre for collaboration between artists and intellectuals. H.L. Seneviratne was a friend of Arthur Silva, a fellow resident of Arunachalam Hall then, and the President of the Drama Circle. H.L. Seneviratne had the good fortune to play a role, both as a member of the original cast, and an active member of the Drama Circle that prevailed on lecturer E.R. Sarathchandra to produce a play and gave him indispensable organizational support. It was through this society that Sarachchandra attracted some of the actors who brought into being Maname and later Sinhabhahu, plays which have become the cornerstone of Sri Lanka’s theatrical heritage.

The best chronicler of Maname

H.L. Seneviratne is the best chronicler of Maname. (Towards a National Art, From Home and the World, Essays in honour of Sarath Amunugama. Ramanika Unamboowe and Varuni Fernando (eds)). He chronicles the genesis of Ediriweera Sarachchandra’s seminal play Maname, framing it as a pivotal attempt to forge a sophisticated national identity by synthesizing indigenous folk traditions with Eastern theatrical aesthetics. Seneviratne details how Sarachchandra, disillusioned with the ‘artificiality’ of Western-influenced urban theatre and the limitations of both elite satires and rural folk plays, looked toward the Japanese Noh and Kabuki traditions to find a model for a ‘national’ art that could appeal across class divides. The author emphasises that the success of Maname was not merely a solo intellectual feat but a gruelling, collective effort involving a ‘gang of five’ academics and a dedicated cohort of rural, bilingual students from the University of Ceylon at Peradeniya. Through anecdotes regarding the discovery of lead actors like Edmund Wijesinghe and the assembly of a unique orchestra, Seneviratne highlights the logistical struggles—from finding authentic instruments to managing cumbersome stage sets—that ultimately birthed a transformative ‘oriental’ theatre rooted in the nadagama style yet refined for a modern, sophisticated audience.

Born in Sri Lanka in 1934, in a village in Horana, he was educated at the Horana Taxila College following which he was admitted to the Department of Sociology at the University of Peradeniya. H.L. Seneviratne’s academic journey subsequently led him to the University of Rochester for his doctoral studies. But, despite his long tenure in the United States, his research has remained firmly rooted in the soil of his homeland.

His early seminal work, Rituals of the Kandyan State, his PhD thesis turned into a book, offered a groundbreaking analysis of the Temple of the Tooth (Dalada Maligawa). By examining the ceremonies surrounding the sacred relic, H.L. Seneviratne demonstrated how religious performance served as the bedrock of political legitimacy in the Kandyan Kingdom. He argued that these rituals at the time of his fieldwork in the early 1970s were not static relics of the past, but active tools used to construct and maintain the authority of the state, the ideas that would resonate throughout his later career.

The Work of Kings

Perhaps, his most provocative contribution arrived with the publication of The Work of Kings published in 1999. In this sweeping study, H.L. Seneviratne traced the transformation of the Buddhist clergy, or Sangha, from the early 20th-century ‘social service’ monks, who focused on education and community upliftment, to the more politically charged nationalist figures of the modern era. He analysed the shift away from a universalist, humanistic Buddhism toward a more exclusionary identity, sparking intense debate within both academic and religious circles in Sri Lanka.

In The Work of Kings, H.L. Seneviratne has presented a sophisticated critique and argued that in the early 20th century, influenced by figures like Anagarika Dharmapala, there was a brief ‘monastic ideal’ centred on social service and education. This period saw monks acting as catalysts for community development and moral reform embodying a humanistic version of Buddhism that sought to modernize the country while maintaining its spiritual integrity.

However, H.L. Seneviratne contends that this situation was eventually derailed by the rise of post-independence nationalism. He describes a process where the clergy moved away from universalist goals to become the vanguard of a narrow ethno-religious identity. By aligning themselves so closely with the state and partisan politics, H.L. Seneviratne suggests that the Sangha inadvertently traded their moral authority for political influence. This shift, in his view, led to the ‘betrayal’ of the original social service movement, replacing a vision of broad social progress with one centred on political dominance.

The core of his critique lies in the disappearance of what he calls the ‘intellectual monk.’ He laments the decline of the scholarly, reflective tradition in favour of a more populist and often inflammatory rhetoric. By analysing the rhetoric of key monastic figures, H.L. Senevirathne illustrates how the language of Buddhism was repurposed to justify political ends, often at the expense of the pluralistic values that he believes are inherent to the faith’s core teachings.

H.L. Seneviratne’s work remains highly relevant today as it provides a framework for understanding contemporary religious tensions. His analysis serves as a warning about the consequences of merging religious institutional power with state politics. By documenting this historical shift, he challenges modern Sri Lankans—and global observers—to reconsider the role of religious institutions in a secular, democratic state, urging a return to the compassionate and socially inclusive roots of the Buddhist tradition.

  Within the broader context of Sri Lankan anthropology, H.L. Seneviratne is frequently grouped with other towering figures of his generation, most notably Stanley Jeyaraja Tambiah and Gananath Obeyesekere. Together, this remarkable cohort revolutionized the study of Sri Lanka by applying structural and psychological analyses to religious and ethnic identity. While Tambiah famously interrogated the betrayal of non-violent Buddhist principles in the face of political violence, H.L. Seneviratne’s work is often seen as the essential sociological counterpart, providing the detailed historical and institutional narrative of how the monastic order itself was reshaped by these very forces.

Reation to Seneviratne’s critque

The reaction to H.L. Seneviratne’s critique has been as multifaceted as the work itself. In academic circles, particularly those influenced by post-colonial theory, he is celebrated for speaking truth in a public place. Scholars have noted that because he writes as an insider—both a Sinhalese and a Buddhist, that makes them both credible and, to some, highly objectionable. His work has paved the way for a younger generation of Sri Lankan sociologists and anthropologists to move beyond traditional functionalism towards more radical articulations of competing interests and political power.

However, his analysis has also made him a target for nationalist critics. Those aligned with ethno-religious movements often view his deconstruction of the Sangha’s political role as an attack on Sinhalese-Buddhist identity itself. These detractors argue that H.L. Seneviratne’s intellectualist or universalist view of Buddhism fails to account for the necessity of the clergy’s role in protecting the nation against neo colonial and modern pressures. This tension highlights the very descent into ideology that H.L. Seneviratne has spent his career documenting.

H.L. Seneviratne’s legacy is defined by this ongoing dialogue between scholarship and social reality. His transition from the detached scholar seen in his early work on Kandyan rituals to the socially concerned intellectual of The Work of Kings mirrors the very transformation of the Sangha and Buddha Sasana he studied.  By refusing to look away from the complexities of the present, he has ensured that his work remains a cornerstone for any serious discussion on the future of religion and governance in Sri Lanka.

Focus on good governance

In his later years, H.L. Seneviratne has pivoted his focus toward the practical application of his theories, specifically examining how the concept of ‘Good Governance’ interacts with traditional religious structures. He argues that for Sri Lanka to achieve true stability, there must be a fundamental reimagining of the Sangha’s role in the public sphere—one that moves away from the ‘work of Kings’ and returns to a more ethical, advisory capacity. This shift in his recent lectures reflects a deep concern about the erosion of democratic institutions and the way religious sentiment can be harnessed to bypass the rule of law.

Building on this, contemporary scholars like Benjamin Schonthal have expanded H.L. Seneviratne’s inquiry into the legal and constitutional dimensions of Buddhism in Sri Lanka. While H.L. Seneviratne provided the anthropological groundwork for how monks gained political power, this newer generation of academics examines how that power has been codified into the very laws of the state. They explore the ‘path dependency’ created by the historical shifts H.L. Seneviratne documented, looking at how the legal privileging of Buddhism creates unique challenges for a pluralistic society.

New Sangha

Furthermore, his influence is visible in the work of local scholars who focus on ‘engaged Buddhism.’ These researchers look back at H.L. Seneviratne’s description of the early 20th-century social service monks as a blueprint for modern reform. By identifying the moment where the clergy’s mission shifted from social welfare to political nationalism, these scholars use H.L. Seneviratne’s historical milestones to advocate a ‘New Sangha’ that prioritizes reconciliation and inter-ethnic harmony over state-aligned power.

The enduring power of H.L. Seneviratne’s work lies in its refusal to offer easy answers. By mapping the transition within Buddhist practice from ritual to politics, and from social service to nationalism, he has provided an analytical framework in which the nation can see its own transformation. His legacy is not just a collection of books, but a persistent, rigorous habit of questioning that continues to inspire those who seek to understand the delicate balance between faith and the modern state.

H.L. Seneviratne continues to challenge his audience to think beyond the immediate political moment. By documenting the arc of Sri Lankan history from the sacred rituals of the Kandyan kings to the modern halls of parliament, he provides a vital sense of perspective. Whether he is being celebrated by the academic community or critiqued by nationalist voices, his work ensures that the conversation regarding the soul of the nation remains rigorous, historically grounded, and unafraid of its own complexities.

Anthropology and cinema

H.L. Seneviratne identifies the mid-1950s as the critical turning point for this cinematic shift, specifically anchoring the move to 1956 with the release of Lester James Peries’s “Rekava.” This period was a watershed moment in Sri Lankan history, coinciding with a broader nationalist resurgence that sought to reclaim a localized identity from the influence of colonial and foreign powers. H.L. Seneviratne suggests that before this era, the ‘South Indian formula’ dominated the screen, characterized by studio-bound sets, theatrical acting, and musical interludes that felt alien to the island’s actual social fabric. The pioneers of this movement, led by Lester James Peries and later followed by figures like Siri Gunasinghe in the early 1960s, deliberately moved the camera into the open air of the rural village to capture what H.L. Seneviratne describes as the ‘authentic rhythms’ of life. This transition was not merely aesthetic but deeply ideological; it replaced the mythical, exaggerated heroism of commercial cinema with a nuanced exploration of the post-colonial middle class and the crumbling feudal hierarchies. By the 1960s, through landmark works like ‘Gamperaliya,’ these filmmakers were successfully crafting a modern mythology that reflected the internal psychological tensions and the social evolution of a nation navigating its way between traditional Buddhist values and a rapidly modernizing world.

His critique of the relationship between art and the state is particularly evident in his analysis of historical epics, where he has argued that certain cinematic portrayals of ancient kings and battles serve as a form of ‘visual nationalism,’ translating the ideological shifts he documented in The Work of Kings onto the silver screen. By analysing these films, he shows how popular culture can become a powerful tool for constructing a simplified, heroic past that often ignores the multi-ethnic and pluralistic realities of the island’s history.

(To be concluded)

by Professor M. W. Amarasiri de Silva

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Midweek Review

The Loneliness of the Female Head

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The years have painfully trudged on,

But she’s yet to have answers to her posers;

What became of her bread-winning husband,

Who went missing amid the heinous bombings?

When is she being given a decent stipend,

To care for her daughter wasting-away in leprosy?

Who will help keep her hearth constantly burning,

Since work comes only in dribs and drabs?

And equally vitally, when will they stop staring,

As if she were the touch-me-not of the community?

By Lynn Ockersz

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