Business
US trade war poses risks to Sri Lanka’s creditworthiness, warns Fitch
Meanwhile, tensions between the world’s two largest economies remain high
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Sri Lanka’s already vulnerable financial position could be further threatened by the ongoing US trade war, according to a recent analysis by Fitch Ratings.
The global ratings agency highlights that Sri Lanka, currently rated CCC+, is particularly susceptible to negative impacts if its export earnings are hit by the escalating tariffs.
Fitch Ratings, Hong Kong, in a press release issued on April 15, 2025, warned that increasing US tariffs would weigh on the credit metrics of many sovereigns in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. The report emphasised that APAC’s high trade openness and reliance on US demand make it especially vulnerable to the fallout from the trade war.
While the 10% tariffs imposed by the US on most countries are slightly below Fitch’s earlier projections, the agency believes that Asian economic growth will slow as exports and export-oriented investments suffer from tariffs and increased uncertainty.
“This slowdown, coupled with weaker commodity prices and exchange rate adjustments, will affect APAC sovereigns to varying degrees. Several economies in the region, including China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, and Korea, rely heavily on manufacturing exports and investments, with the US serving as a major export market. These economies could face significant challenges as a result of the trade war,” it stated.
Fitch noted that government policy responses would be crucial in determining the ultimate impact on APAC sovereign ratings. While some higher-rated jurisdictions like China, Singapore, and Taiwan may have the fiscal space to implement stimulus measures, some others, including Sri Lanka, have limited headroom due to high debt levels and constrained fiscal consolidation since the pandemic and its own economic crisis.
The ratings agency also cautioned that the US dollar could appreciate against some APAC currencies, potentially increasing debt burdens for countries with a large share of foreign-currency debt. Furthermore, foreign-exchange reserves could shrink if authorities intervene to support their currencies, further straining economies with low external buffers like Sri Lanka.
Fitch concluded that countries with relatively low external buffers, such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, were particularly at risk if their export earnings were negatively impacted by the tariffs.
Meanwhile, tensions between the world’s two largest economies remain high.
After the White House website claimed that imports from China to the US would face tariffs of up to 245 percent, the Chinese Foreign Ministry warned yesterday that China would pay no attention to the US’s further tariff numbers game, and it would take ‘resolute countermeasures’ and ‘fight to the end’ if Washington persisted in substantially infringing on China’s rights and interests.
China Daily – the ruling Chinese Communist party’s English-language mouthpiece published a sharply worded editorial on April 15, rejecting U.S. President Trump’s repeated claims that the US had been ‘ripped off’ by China.
“The U.S. is not getting ripped off by anybody. It is taking a free ride on the globalisation train and is living beyond its means,” China Daily argued.
The total outstanding market liquidity surplus or excess funds available in Sri Lanka’s banking system for lending and transactions declined by Rs. 36.65 billion in a week, according to the Central Bank’s latest economic indicators report.
An economic researcher analysing the data noted: “Treasury bill and bond auctions likely drained liquidity. If this tightening persists, short-term interest rates could rise, raising borrowing costs and potentially slowing economic growth. The situation warrants close monitoring, especially as the manufacturing sector is already facing a slowdown whether due to seasonal or structural factors.”
The report also highlighted the following developments in Sri Lanka’s economy:
Fiscal improvements: The deficit has narrowed but remains elevated.
Sectoral trends: The stock market rallied, and the services sector showed slower expansion (tourism, retail and IT driving resilience).
Total expenditure and net lending increased to Rs. 1,301.9 bn during the three months ending March 2025 compared to Rs. 1,197.5 bn in the corresponding period of 2024.
During the three months ending March 2025, the overall budget deficit decreased to Rs. 234.5 bn compared to Rs. 281.3 bn recorded in the corresponding period of 2024
The rupee value of T-Bills and T-Bonds held by foreign investors decreased by 2 per cent in comparison to the previous week.
“The April 2025 industrial slowdown points to weaker output, likely due to seasonal factors such as holidays or subdued demand. However, this was partially offset by an expansion in the Services PMI, offering some relief. The broader economic outlook for Sri Lanka remains uncertain, as these mixed signals unfold as Sri Lanka would receive a tariff letter from the US in the coming weeks. With market liquidity already tightening due to government borrowings from the banking system, policymakers face mounting challenges in balancing growth and stability,” the economic researcher noted.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
AIA Sri Lanka’s ‘Pawfect Match’ campaign, in partnership with animal welfare groups, inspired 500+ adoptions of stray pets. The initiative highlighted adoption, responsible ownership, and compassion, tackling Sri Lanka’s stray animal crisis. AIA thanks all supporters for their life-changing impact.
The campaign served as a reminder that even small acts of kindness like adopting a stray can make a big impact. It also provided an opportunity for the public to learn more about responsible pet ownership, animal rights, and the importance of compassion toward all creatures.
Calton Sweet House Pvt. Ltd., a key part of Calton Group, was honored as the Best National Industry Brand in the Medium-Scale Food and Beverage Sector at the National Industry Brand Excellence Awards 2024, organized by the Industrial Development Board. Deshamanya Mahesh De Silva, Director of Finance and IT at Calton Group, accepted the award.
Established in 1991, Calton Sweet House has over 30 years of excellence, specializing in cakes, snacks, and frozen bakery items, with 20+ outlets across Negombo, Katunayake, and Colombo, including at Bandaranaike International Airport. The company holds ISO, HACCP, and GMP certifications, ensuring top-quality standards.
Starting as a small store in 1983, Calton Group now employs 300+ staff and operates multiple businesses, including Calton Hyper Market and Calton Catering, while partnering with global brands like Unilever and Upfield. The group remains committed to serving customers with high-quality, safely packaged food products.
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