Features
Trincomalee Oil Farm and Energy Hub: Sri Lanka’s Missed Opportunity Returns
The Trincomalee Oil Tank Farm stands today as one of the most strategically significant yet historically underutilized energy assets in South Asia. Located off the deep natural harbour of Trincomalee, the facility embodies a convergence of history, geopolitics, and economic potential. In the current global context—marked by energy insecurity, shifting geopolitical alliances, and regional competition—the Trincomalee oil farm offers Sri Lanka a renewed opportunity to transform itself into a regional energy hub. However, this transformation demands clarity of vision, political consistency, and strategic partnerships.
Origins and construction
The origins of the Trincomalee oil tank farm date back to the era of World War II, when the British Empire recognized the strategic importance of Trincomalee as a naval base in the Indian Ocean. Construction of the oil storage facility on 600 acres of land began in 1924 and continued into the late 1930s. The project was designed to support British naval operations in the Eastern theatre, particularly as Japanese expansion threatened Allied supply lines.
The facility originally comprised 101 large storage tanks, each constructed with a robust one inch thick steel sheet and surrounded by thick one foot thick concrete walls for protection against aerial attacks. These tanks were ingeniously built into the natural contours of the terrain, often partially buried, enhancing both structural stability and camouflage. Each tank had an approximate capacity of around 12,000 metric tons of fuel, giving the entire complex a total storage capacity of nearly 1.2 million metric tons—an immense reserve by regional standards even today. This dwarfs the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation’s (CPC) existing storage facility and even the new storage complex, built by the Chinese at Muthurajawela which has a capacity of 220,000 metric tons.
The fate of two oil tanks
Out of the 101 tanks, one was destroyed when a Royal Ceylon Air Force plane crashed in the early 1960’s. But the most famous is the destroyed tank number 91 lying on the far edge of the forest. During World War II, the strategic significance of Trincomalee attracted enemy attention. In April 1942, Japanese forces launched air raids on the harbour in what became part of the broader Indian Ocean campaign. One of the oil tanks—commonly referred to as Tank 91—was hit during these attacks and destroyed. This incident underscored both the vulnerability and the importance of the facility. While most of the tanks survived the bombardment, the destruction of Tank 91 remains a historical reminder of the oil farm’s wartime role.
Strategic location and infrastructure
The inclusion of China Bay within Trincomalee Harbour complex was not incidental. China Bay offered deep-water access, allowing large oil tankers to dock safely. The harbour itself is one of the finest natural deep-water harbours in the world, capable of accommodating large naval and commercial vessels with minimal dredging.
A sophisticated pipeline system was constructed to facilitate the transfer of oil from ships directly to the storage tanks. This network of pipelines minimized handling time and reduced vulnerability during wartime operations. The integration of maritime access with inland storage infrastructure made Trincomalee a logistical asset of immense value, capable of supporting sustained naval operations across the Indian Ocean.
Post-Independence neglect
Following Sri Lanka’s independence in 1948, the Trincomalee oil tank farm gradually fell into neglect. Successive governments failed to recognize or capitalize on its strategic and economic potential. The facility was largely abandoned, with many tanks left unused and the surrounding area overgrown with dense shrub jungle. Infrastructure deteriorated, pipelines corroded, and the once-critical installation became a symbol of missed opportunity.
This neglect was not merely administrative but also strategic. At a time when global energy demand was rising and regional economies were expanding, Sri Lanka failed to leverage a ready-made asset that could have positioned it as a key player in the Indian Ocean energy network.
It may be argued that if newly Independent Ceylon, hosting two British bases at Trincomalee and Katunayake, seized the opportunity of encouraging Western investment to optimize utilization to the existing tank farm asset, companies like Shell, Stanvac and Caltex already in the profitable oil distribution business here, would have looked positively of making Sri Lanka a regional oil hub – something Singapore enjoys today.
Early attempts at revitalization
In the late 1970s and early 1980s, President J. R. Jayewardene recognized the potential of the Trincomalee oil tank farm and proposed its development. However, these efforts were complicated by geopolitical considerations, particularly concerns from India regarding foreign involvement in a strategically sensitive location so close to its southern coastline.
As a result, the project faced diplomatic resistance and was ultimately abandoned. This marked another missed opportunity, driven by a combination of external pressure and internal indecision.
The Indo-Sri Lanka Accord and aftermath
The signing of the Indo-Sri Lanka Accord in 1987 brought renewed attention to Trincomalee. The accord included provisions recognizing Trincomalee’s strategic importance and implicitly acknowledged India’s security concerns regarding its use.
During the years of civil conflict in Sri Lanka, the oil tank farm remained largely inactive. Security concerns, lack of investment, and the broader instability of the region prevented any meaningful development. Even after the end of the war in 2009, progress remained slow.
The role of Trinco Petroleum Terminal – 2022
A significant development occurred in 2022 with the establishment of Trinco Petroleum Terminal (Pvt) Ltd (TPTL), a joint venture between the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) and the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), through its subsidiary Lanka Indian Oil Corporation (LIOC), which had been operating in Sri Lanka since 2003. Under this arrangement, CPC holds a 51% stake, while LIOC holds 49%, reflecting a collaborative approach to developing the Trincomalee Oil Tank Farm.
As part of the agreement, a portion of the oil storage tanks was leased to the Indian partner, while the remaining tanks came under Sri Lankan control, earmarked for phased renovation and redevelopment by TPTL, LIOC, and potential international partners. LIOC has since been utilizing approximately 14–15 tanks, primarily for fuel storage and distribution within Sri Lanka.
Although these steps marked meaningful progress, the majority of the tanks have remained underutilized, and the full strategic and commercial potential of the Trincomalee Oil Tank Farm continues to be unrealized.
Political opposition and geopolitical concerns
Efforts to expand Indian involvement in the development of the oil tank farm were met with strong resistance from nationalist political groups, particularly the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). The opposition was rooted in concerns over sovereignty, national security, and perceived over-reliance on India. This political wrangling delayed decision-making and discouraged investment. The Trincomalee oil tank farm became entangled in broader debates about foreign policy and economic strategy, rather than being treated as a national asset requiring pragmatic management.
From geopolitics to geoeconomics
In recent years, there has been a shift in perspective—from viewing Trincomalee primarily through a geopolitical lens to recognizing its geoeconomic potential. The global energy landscape is changing, with increased emphasis on supply chain resilience, regional storage hubs, and diversification of energy sources.
Sri Lanka’s strategic location along major shipping routes in the Indian Ocean positions it ideally to serve as a regional energy hub. Trincomalee, with its natural harbour and existing infrastructure, is central to this vision.
The Tripartite Agreement- 2025
A major breakthrough came in 2025 with the signing of a tripartite agreement involving Sri Lanka, India, and the United Arab Emirates. This agreement aims to jointly develop the Trincomalee oil tank farm, combining Sri Lanka’s strategic location with India’s regional influence and the UAE’s financial and technical expertise. The activation of this agreement marks a turning point. It reflects a pragmatic approach that balances national interests with the need for foreign investment and collaboration.
Importance in the current global context
The importance of the Trincomalee oil tank farm has been heightened by recent global developments, including tensions and conflicts in the Middle East. Disruptions in oil supply chains have underscored the need for strategic reserves and regional storage facilities.
For Sri Lanka, expanding the storage capacity at Trincomalee could provide energy security by maintaining reserves sufficient for up to 60 days of consumption which at present is sufficient only for 30 days. Renovation of the existing tanks, along with modernization of infrastructure, would significantly enhance the country’s resilience to external shocks.
Moreover, the facility could serve as a storage and redistribution hub for other countries in the region, generating revenue and strengthening Sri Lanka’s economic position.
Vision for Trincomalee as a comprehensive energy hub
The transformation of Trincomalee into a dynamic and sustainable energy hub represents one of the most significant strategic opportunities for Sri Lanka in the coming decades. Anchored by its historic oil tank farm at China Bay and supported by one of the finest natural harbour’s in the world, Trincomalee possesses the rare combination of geography, infrastructure, and strategic location necessary to evolve into a major energy centre in the Indian Ocean region. However, realizing this potential requires a shift from a narrow focus on storage toward a broader, integrated, and forward-looking energy ecosystem.
At the heart of this vision lies the expansion and modernization of petroleum storage and distribution. The refurbishment of the existing oil tanks—many of which date back to the Second World War—along with the construction of new, technologically advanced facilities, will significantly enhance storage capacity, efficiency, and safety. With modern monitoring systems and international-standard operational practices, Trincomalee can function as a reliable regional energy reserve, capable of meeting domestic needs while also serving international markets.
Beyond storage, the development of refining and value-addition industries is essential. Establishing a modern refinery would reduce dependence on imported refined petroleum products and create opportunities for producing lubricants, petrochemicals, and other high-value derivatives. These downstream industries would stimulate industrial growth, generate employment, and encourage the emergence of ancillary sectors, thereby contributing to broader economic development.
Trincomalee’s geographic advantages also extend to the aviation sector. Its proximity to China Bay Airport provides an opportunity to develop a dedicated aviation fuel supply chain, catering to both civilian and military requirements. This would enable the region to function as a refuelling and logistics hub within the Indian Ocean network, strengthening connectivity and enhancing operational efficiency for regional air traffic.
Equally significant is the potential of Trincomalee Harbour to emerge as a major centre for maritime services. Located along key east–west shipping routes, the harbour is ideally positioned to provide bunkering, maintenance, and logistical support to passing vessels. Developing competitive bunkering facilities would increase port revenues and enhance Sri Lanka’s standing in global maritime trade, while integrating energy services with port operations.
In keeping with global trends, the integration of renewable energy sources must form a key component of this vision. Trincomalee’s climatic conditions are conducive to both solar and wind energy generation, allowing for the development of hybrid energy systems that complement traditional fossil fuel infrastructure. Incorporating renewable energy will not only reduce carbon emissions but also align with international sustainability goals, ensuring that the hub remains relevant in a rapidly evolving global energy landscape.
Another dimension that warrants reflection in the development of Trincomalee as an energy hub is the story of Sampur—an example of both missed opportunity and emerging renewal. Strategically located in close proximity to China Bay, Sampur was once envisaged as a key site for a coal power project, later evolving into proposals for a liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility. However, a combination of political opposition, environmental concerns, and shifting policy priorities led to the abandonment of these initiatives. This not only delayed potential gains in energy generation and regional development but also underscored the need for policy consistency and long-term planning in national energy strategy.
Yet, Sampur’s relevance has not diminished. Its transformation into a ground mounted solar power facility, commissioned in 2025, marks a significant shift towards sustainable energy development. While its contribution to the national grid when fully operational may be modest (120 MW in two phases) compared to the scale of earlier proposals, it represents an important step in diversifying Sri Lanka’s energy mix and reducing dependence on fossil fuels. More importantly, Sampur’s evolution highlights the potential for integrating renewable energy into the broader vision for Trincomalee. As the energy hub concept matures, Sampur could serve as a model for balancing economic ambition with environmental responsibility, reinforcing Trincomalee’s role in a resilient and forward-looking energy future.
The realization of the energy hub vision depends heavily on robust infrastructure development and enhanced connectivity. Modernizing port facilities, expanding pipeline networks, and improving road and rail links to the rest of the country are essential steps. In addition, ambitious proposals such as undersea pipelines linking Trincomalee with regional partners could further strengthen its role as a critical node in South Asia’s energy network, facilitating cross-border energy trade and cooperation.
Strategic partnerships will play a crucial role in this transformation. Given the scale of investment and technical expertise required, collaboration with international stakeholders is both necessary and beneficial. However, such partnerships must be carefully structured to ensure transparency, equitable benefit-sharing, and the protection of national interests. Drawing on global best practices while maintaining sovereignty over strategic assets will be key to long-term success.
Equally important is the establishment of a stable and consistent policy environment. Investor confidence depends on clear, predictable policies governing taxation, pricing, and operations. A well-defined national energy policy, supported by a strong regulatory framework, will provide the foundation for sustained investment and long-term planning. Regulations must also ensure strict adherence to environmental standards, safeguarding the ecological integrity of the Trincomalee region while enabling responsible development.
Human resource development is another critical pillar. The successful operation of a modern energy hub requires a skilled and knowledgeable workforce. Investment in education, technical training, and capacity-building programs will be essential to equip local professionals with the expertise needed to manage advanced infrastructure and complex operations.
Finally, regional integration offers a powerful pathway for growth. By strengthening energy and economic ties with neighbouring countries, Trincomalee can position itself as a reliable and efficient hub within the wider Indian Ocean region. This will not only enhance energy security but also elevate Sri Lanka’s role in regional and global energy networks.
In essence, the vision for Trincomalee is one of transformation—from a historically significant but underutilized asset into a vibrant, multifaceted energy hub that drives national development, fosters regional cooperation, and secures a sustainable energy future
Lessons from past failures
Sri Lanka’s history with the Trincomalee oil tank farm and the projects in Sampur for power generation is marked by missed opportunities, often due to political indecision, opposition by nationalist political parties and short-term thinking. Repeated changes in policy, lack of continuity, and politicization of strategic assets have hindered progress.
To avoid repeating these mistakes, there must be a clear, long-term national strategy agreed by the parties concerned. Transparent governance, professional management, and accountability are essential.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the future of Trincomalee stands at a decisive crossroads, shaped by both its historic legacy and its untapped potential. What was once conceived as a strategic wartime asset now presents itself as an opportunity of national significance especially during a time of energy crisis in the world brought about by the present war in the Middle East. The convergence of geography, infrastructure, and global energy demand places Trincomalee in a uniquely advantageous position within the Indian Ocean region.
Realizing this vision demands more than ambition—it calls for disciplined planning, policy consistency, and a commitment to national interest above short-term considerations. Investment in modern infrastructure, technological advancement, and human capital must proceed alongside transparent governance and environmental responsibility. Equally important is the cultivation of strategic partnerships that enhance capacity while preserving sovereignty.
If approached with foresight and unity, Trincomalee can evolve into a resilient, multifaceted energy hub that not only secures Sri Lanka’s energy future but also stimulates trade, industry, and regional collaboration. It is an opportunity to convert past delays and failures into present momentum and future success.
The time has come to act decisively. The foundations are already in place; what is needed now is the will to build upon them.
Trincomalee Oil Farm and Energy Hub: A Strategic Asset Sri Lanka Can No Longer Ignore
At a time when Sri Lanka continues to grapple with energy insecurity, volatile global oil prices, and the economic aftershocks of recent crises, one national asset stands out—vast, historic, and still underused. The Trincomalee Oil Tank Farm, located within the deep natural harbour of Trincomalee, is no longer merely a relic of the past. It has re-emerged as a critical national asset with the potential to reshape Sri Lanka’s energy security and economic future. In the context of an ongoing global energy crisis, the question is not whether Trincomalee matters, but whether Sri Lanka is finally prepared to act decisively.
The origins of the Trincomalee oil tank farm date back to the strategic imperatives of the British Empire during the Second World War. Recognising the unmatched value of Trincomalee’s harbour—one of the finest natural deep-water harbours in the world—the British constructed a vast oil storage complex across approximately 600 acres at China Bay. Built between the 1920s and late 1930s, the facility comprised 101 massive storage tanks, each capable of holding around 12,000 metric tons of fuel. With a total capacity of nearly 1.2 million metric tons, the complex was designed to support sustained naval operations in the Indian Ocean theatre. The tanks were ingeniously embedded into the natural contours of the terrain and reinforced with thick concrete, offering both protection and structural stability. A sophisticated pipeline network enabled the efficient transfer of oil from ships directly into storage, making Trincomalee a logistical asset of exceptional value.
Despite this remarkable beginning, the decades following independence in 1948 saw the gradual neglect of the facility. Successive governments failed to incorporate the oil tank farm into a coherent national energy strategy. As global demand for energy expanded and regional economies strengthened, Sri Lanka allowed one of its most valuable assets to deteriorate. Infrastructure decayed, pipelines corroded, and many of the tanks fell into disuse, eventually becoming overgrown by jungle. What should have been a cornerstone of national energy security instead became a symbol of indecision and missed opportunity.
There were intermittent attempts to revive interest in Trincomalee. In the late 1970s, President J. R. Jayewardene recognised the strategic and economic potential of the facility and proposed its development. However, these efforts were constrained by geopolitical realities, particularly concerns from India regarding foreign involvement in a strategically sensitive location close to its southern coastline. The Indo-Sri Lanka Accord once again highlighted Trincomalee’s strategic importance, but the ensuing years of civil conflict and persistent policy inconsistency prevented any meaningful progress. Even after the end of the war in 2009, development remained slow and fragmented.
A more structured effort emerged in 2022 with the establishment of the Trinco Petroleum Terminal (Pvt) Ltd, a joint venture between the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation and the Indian Oil Corporation. Under this arrangement, Sri Lanka retained a 51 percent stake, while the Indian partner held 49 percent. A number of tanks were allocated for immediate use, while others were designated for phased development. Although this marked a positive step forward, the majority of the facility remains underutilised. Political opposition, particularly from groups such as the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, continued to slow progress, often framing the issue in terms of sovereignty rather than economic necessity.
The urgency of developing Trincomalee has been amplified by the current global energy crisis, driven in part by instability in the Middle East and disruptions to global supply chains. These developments have exposed the vulnerability of countries with limited strategic reserves. Sri Lanka, at present, maintains fuel reserves sufficient for roughly 30 days. With full development of the Trincomalee oil tank farm, this capacity could be extended to 60 days or more, providing a vital buffer against external shocks. Such an expansion would not only enhance national energy security but also reduce the risk of recurring fuel shortages and economic instability.
A significant breakthrough came in 2025 with the signing of a tripartite agreement involving Sri Lanka, India, and the United Arab Emirates. This partnership represents a pragmatic alignment of interests, combining Sri Lanka’s strategic location with India’s regional presence and the UAE’s financial and technical capabilities. More importantly, it reflects a shift in thinking—from viewing Trincomalee purely through a geopolitical lens to recognising its broader geoeconomic potential. In an era where energy infrastructure and regional cooperation are increasingly interconnected, Trincomalee has the capacity to emerge as a key node in the Indian Ocean energy network.
However, the true potential of Trincomalee extends far beyond oil storage. To fully realise its value, Sri Lanka must adopt a more integrated and forward-looking approach, transforming the region into a comprehensive energy hub. This would involve modernising storage facilities, expanding distribution networks, and developing refining capacity to reduce dependence on imported petroleum products. The establishment of petrochemical industries could further enhance value addition and create new avenues for export and employment.
Trincomalee’s geographic advantages also position it well for the development of aviation fuel supply chains, particularly given its proximity to China Bay. In addition, the harbour’s location along major east–west shipping routes offers significant potential for bunkering and maritime services. By integrating energy infrastructure with port operations, Sri Lanka could enhance its role in global maritime trade while generating substantial revenue.
Equally important is the integration of renewable energy into this vision. The nearby area of Sampur, once the site of abandoned coal and LNG projects, has now been repurposed as a solar power facility commissioned in 2025, with a planned capacity of 120 MW. While modest in scale, this development represents a meaningful shift towards sustainability and highlights the potential for combining traditional and renewable energy sources within a unified framework. Sampur’s evolution serves as both a lesson in missed opportunity and a model for a more balanced and forward-looking energy strategy.
The transformation of Trincomalee into a functioning energy hub will depend on several critical factors. Foremost among these is the need for policy consistency and long-term planning. Investor confidence cannot be sustained in an environment of shifting regulations and political uncertainty. Transparent governance, clear regulatory frameworks, and a commitment to protecting national interests are essential. At the same time, strategic partnerships with international stakeholders must be carefully managed to ensure that Sri Lanka benefits fully from its assets while maintaining sovereignty.
Infrastructure development will also play a central role. Upgrading port facilities, expanding pipeline networks, and improving road and rail connectivity are necessary to support increased activity. Investment in human capital is equally important, as the operation of a modern energy hub requires a skilled and technically proficient workforce.
Sri Lanka’s experience with the Trincomalee oil tank farm and related projects, including those in Sampur, underscores a recurring pattern of missed opportunities driven by political indecision and short-term thinking. To break this cycle, there must be a clear national consensus on the strategic importance of Trincomalee, supported by consistent policy and professional management.
In conclusion, the future of Trincomalee stands at a decisive crossroads. What was once conceived as a strategic wartime asset now represents an opportunity of immense national importance, particularly in the context of a global energy crisis. The convergence of geography, infrastructure, and rising global demand places Trincomalee in a uniquely advantageous position within the Indian Ocean region. Realising this potential will require disciplined planning, sustained commitment, and a willingness to act in the national interest. If approached with foresight and unity, Trincomalee can evolve into a resilient and dynamic energy hub, securing Sri Lanka’s energy future while driving economic growth and regional cooperation. The foundations are already in place; what is needed now is the resolve to build upon them.
(Dr. Gamini Goonetilleke, FRCS, is a senior consultant surgeon in Sri Lanka with over four decades of distinguished service, including extensive work in conflict-affected regions during the civil war, where he managed complex trauma cases. He is the author of three acclaimed books—In the Line of Duty, The Extra Mile, and The Healing Cut. Transitioning from medicine to intellectual inquiry, he is now a researcher, writer, and commentator on national issues. In this article, he brings a critical perspective to Sri Lanka’s energy challenges, highlighting missed opportunities and the urgent need for strategic vision.)
by Gamini Goonetilleke
Features
The Ramadan War
A Strategic Assessment of a Conflict Still Unresolved
The Unites States of America and its ally, Israel attacked Iran on 28 February, or the 10th day of the month of Ramadan. More than a month of intense fighting has passed since, and the Ramadan War has settled into a grinding, attritional struggle that defies early declarations of victory. Despite sustained U.S. and Israeli air and naval bombardment, Iran remains standing, and continues to strike back with a level of resilience that has surprised many observers. The conflict has evolved into a contest of endurance, adaptation, and strategic innovation, with each side attempting to impose costs the other cannot bear.
Iran’s response to the overwhelming airpower of its adversaries has been both simple and devastatingly effective: saturate enemy defences with swarms of inexpensive drones and older ballistic missiles, forcing them to expend costly interceptors and reveal radar positions, and then follow up with salvos of its most advanced precisionguided missiles. This layered approach has inflicted severe physical damage on Israel and has shaken its national morale. The country has endured repeated missile barrages from Iran and rocket fire from Hezbollah, straining its airdefence network and pushing its civilian population to the limits of endurance.
The United States, meanwhile, has been forced to evacuate or reduce operations at several bases in the Gulf region due to persistent Iranian drone and missile attacks. For both the U.S. and Israel, the war has become a test of strategic credibility. For Iran, by contrast, victory is defined not by territorial gains or decisive battlefield outcomes, but by survival, and by continuing to impose costs on its adversaries.
The central strategic objective for the U.S. has now crystallised: reopening the Strait of Hormuz to secure global energy flows. Ironically, the Strait was open before the war began; it is the conflict itself that has rendered it effectively closed. Air and naval power alone cannot achieve this objective. The geography of the Strait, combined with Iran’s layered defences, means that any lasting solution will require ground forces, a reality that carries enormous risks.
U.S. Strategic Options
The United States faces five broad operational options, each with significant drawbacks.
1. Seizing Kharg Island
Kharg Island handles roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports, making it an attractive target. However, it lies only a short distance from the Iranian mainland, where entrenched Iranian forces maintain dense networks of missile batteries, drones, artillery, and coastal defences. Any attempt to seize Kharg would require first neutralising or capturing the adjacent coastline, a costly amphibious and ground operation.
Even if successful, this would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It would merely deprive Iran of export capacity, which is not the primary U.S. objective. At least ostensibly not; there are those who argue that the U.S. simply wants to take over Iran’s petroleum (see below).
2. Forcing the Strait of Hormuz by Naval Power
Sending U.S. naval forces directly through the Strait is theoretically possible but operationally hazardous. Iran has mined all but a narrow channel hugging its own shoreline. That channel is covered by overlapping fields of antiship missiles, drones, artillery, and coastal radar. Clearing the mines would require prolonged operations under fire. Attempting to push through without clearing them would risk catastrophic losses.
3. Capturing Qeshm, Hengam, Larak, and Hormuz Islands
These islands dominate the Iranian side of the Strait and host radar, missile, and drone installations. Capturing them would degrade Iran’s ability to close the Strait, but the islands are heavily fortified, and the surrounding waters are mined. Amphibious assaults against defended islands are among the most difficult military operations. Even success would not guarantee the Strait’s longterm security unless the mainland launch sites were also neutralised.
4. Invading Southern Iraq and Crossing into Khuzestan
This option would involve U.S. forces advancing through southern Iraq, crossing the Shatt alArab waterway, and pushing into Iran’s Khuzestan province — home to most of Iran’s oilfields. The terrain is difficult: marshes, waterways, and narrow approaches. Iranian forces occupy the high ground overlooking the plains.
While this route would allow Saudi armoured forces to participate, it would also expose U.S. and allied logistics to attacks by Iraqi Shia militias, who have already demonstrated their willingness to target U.S. assets. The political and operational risks are immense.
5. Capturing Chabahar and Advancing Along the Coast
The most strategically promising — though still costly — option is seizing the port of Chabahar in southeastern Iran and advancing roughly 660 kilometres along the coast toward Bandar Abbas. This approach offers several advantages:
· Distance from Iran’s core population centres complicates Iranian logistics.
· Chabahar’s deepwater port (16m draught)
would provide a valuable logistics hub.
· U.S. carriers could remain at safer standoff distances
, supporting operations without entering the Strait.
· The coastal route allows naval gunfire and missile support
to assist advancing ground forces.
· Local Baluchi insurgents
could provide intelligence and limited support.
· Capturing Bandar Abbas would
outflank Iran’s island defences and effectively reopen the Strait.
This option is likely to form the backbone of any U.S. ground campaign, potentially supplemented by diversionary attacks by regional partners to stretch Iranian defences.
The Limits of U.S. Superiority
The United States retains overwhelming superiority in naval power and manned airpower. But whether this advantage translates into dominance in unmanned systems or ground combat is far from certain.
The 2003 invasion of Iraq is often cited as a model of U.S. military prowess, but the comparison is misleading. Iraq in 2003 had been crippled by a decade of sanctions. Its forces lacked modern mines, antitank missiles, and effective air defences. Tank crews had little training; some could not hit targets at pointblank range. RPG teams were similarly unprepared. The U.S. enjoyed numerical superiority in the theatre and total control of the air, allowing it to isolate Iraqi units and prevent reinforcement.
Even under those favourable conditions, Iraqi forces managed to delay the U.S. advance. At one point, forward U.S. units nearly ran out of ammunition and supplies, forcing the diversion of forces intended for the assault on Baghdad to secure the lines of communication.
Iran is not Iraq in 2003. Its armed forces and industrial base have adapted to nearly half a century of sanctions. It produces its own drones, missiles, artillery, and armoured vehicles. It has built extensive underground facilities, hardened command posts, and redundant communication networks.
Moreover, the battlefield itself has changed. The RussoUkrainian war demonstrated that deep armoured penetrations – once the hallmark of U.S. doctrine – are now extremely vulnerable to drones, loitering munitions, and precision artillery. The result has been a return to attritional warfare reminiscent of the First World War, with front lines stabilising into trench networks.
Yet, as in the First World War, stalemate has been broken not by massed assaults but by small, highly trained teams infiltrating thinly held lines, identifying targets, and guiding drones and artillery onto enemy positions deep in the rear. Iran has studied these lessons closely.
Mosaic Defence and Transformational Warfare
Iran’s military doctrine has evolved significantly over the past two decades. Its “mosaic defence” decentralises command and control, ensuring that even if senior leadership is targeted, local units can continue operating autonomously. This structure proved resilient during the initial waves of U.S. and Israeli strikes.
Iran has also absorbed lessons from U.S. “shock and awe” operations. The botched U.S. invasion of Grenada in 1983 exposed weaknesses in joint operations, prompting the development of “effectsbased operations,” “rapid dominance” and the broader concept of “transformational warfare.” These doctrines (better known colloquially as “Shock and Awe”), influenced by Liddell Hart and Sun Tzu, emphasised simultaneous strikes on strategic targets to paralyse the enemy’s decisionmaking.
While the U.S. struggled to apply these concepts effectively in Iraq and Iran, Tehran has adapted them for asymmetric use. Its drone and missile campaigns have targeted not only military assets but also economic infrastructure and psychological resilience. Israel’s economy and morale have been severely tested, and the United States finds itself entangled in a conflict that offers no easy exit.
Iran has also pursued a broader strategic objective: undermining the petrodollar system that underpins U.S. financial dominance. By disrupting energy flows and encouraging alternative trading mechanisms, Iran seeks to weaken the economic foundations of U.S. power.
Will the USA Achieve Its War Aims?
The United States’ core objective appears to be securing control over global energy flows by reopening the Strait of Hormuz and limiting China’s access to Middle Eastern oil before it can transition to alternative energy sources. Whether this objective is achievable remains uncertain.
A ground campaign would be long, costly, and politically fraught. Iran’s defences are deep, layered, and adaptive. Its drone and missile capabilities have already demonstrated their ability to impose significant costs on technologically superior adversaries. Regional allies are cautious, and global support for a prolonged conflict is limited.
The United States retains overwhelming military power, but power alone does not guarantee strategic success. Iran’s strategy is simple: survive, adapt, and continue imposing costs. In asymmetric conflicts, survival itself can constitute victory.
In Frank Herbert’s Dune, the protagonist, Paul Muad’dib says “he who can destroy a thing, controls a thing.” This is the essence of Iranian strategy – they have a stranglehold on petroleum supply, and can destroy the world economy. Trump has had to loosen sanctions on both Iran’s and Russia’s oil, simply to prevent economic collapse.
The Ramadan War has already reshaped regional dynamics. Whether it reshapes global power structures will depend on how the next phase unfolds, and whether the United States is willing to pay the price required to achieve its aims.
by Vinod Moonesinghe
Features
Nayanandaya:A literary autopsy of Sri Lanka’s Middle Class
“Nayanandaya,” meaning the enchantment of indebtedness, is Surath de Mel’s latest novel. True to his reputation as a maximalist writer, de Mel traverses the labyrinth of middle-class struggles; poverty, unemployment, the quest for education, through a father’s fragile dreams. The novel unfolds around Mahela, his son, his friendships, and the fragile relationships that keep him tethered to life.
“Happiness is not a destination; it is a journey. There are no shortcuts to it. At some point, the path you thought was right will be wrong. You have to make sacrifices for it.”
These words, uttered by the protagonist Mahela to his ten-year-old son, is the silent mantra of every middle-class parent. A common urban middle-class father’s yearning for his child to climb the ladder he himself could not ascend.
A Socio-Political Mirror
Sri Lanka’s middle class remains trapped in paradox. They are educated but underemployed, salaried but indebted, socially respected yet politically invisible. Structural inequalities, economic volatility and populist politics inclusively contribute to keep them “forever middle”.
Through protagonist Mahela, who is sometimes a graphic designer, sometimes a vendor and always a failure Surath de Mel sketches the deficiencies of an education system that does not nurture skills of the students. Sri Lanka boasts about high literacy rates, yet the economy cannot absorb the thousands of graduates produced into meaningful work. Underemployment becomes the inheritance of the middle class. With political connections often the stories can be transformed. De Mel pens it in dark humour to expose these truths:
“Some notorious writer once sneered in a newspaper, ‘Give your ass to the minister, and you’ll earn the right to keep it on a bigger chair.’ Countless people waiting in ministers’ offices, pressing
their backsides to seats, carrying the weight of their own lives.”
Childhood Trauma and Its Echoes
Surath de Mel frequently weaves psychoanalysis into his fiction. In Nayanandaya, he captures the lingering shadows of childhood trauma. Mahela, scarred by a loveless and fractured youth, suffers phobic anxiety and depression, apparently with a personality disorder as an adult. His confession at the psychologist reveals it out:
“Childhood? I didn’t have one. I was fifteen when I was born.”
Here, Mahela marks his true birth not at infancy, but at the death of his parents. This statement itself reveals the childhood trauma the protagonist had gone through and the reader can attribute his subsequent psychological struggles as the cause of it.
From a Lacanian perspective, trauma is not just something that happens to a child; it is a deep break in how the child understands the world, themselves, and others. Some experiences are too painful to be put into words. Lacan calls this the Real — what cannot be fully spoken or explained. This pain does not disappear but returns later in life as anxiety, fear, or obsessive compulsive disorder.
This trauma disturbs the child’s sense of self and their place in society. When language fails to make sense of loss, the mind creates fantasies to survive. These fantasies quietly shape adult desires, relationships, and choices.
In Nayanandaya, childhood trauma of the protagonist does not stay buried — it lives on, shaping the adulthood in unseen ways. In the narrative, Mahela’s struggles are not just personal failures but the result of a past that was never given words.
Tears of Fathers – Forgotten in Sri Lankan Literature
Sri Lankan literature has long been attentive to suffering — especially rural poverty, social injustice, and the silent endurance of women and single mothers. Countless novels, poems, and songs have given voice to maternal sacrifice, female resilience, and women’s oppression.
Yet, within this rich narratives, the quiet grief of the urban middle-class father remains mostly unseen. Rarely does fiction pause to examine the emotional lives of men who shoulder responsibility without language for their pain. These masculine tears are private, swallowed by routinely and masked by humour or silence. Definitely never granted literary space.
In Nayanandaya, Surath de Mel breaks this silence. Through Mahela, he lends voice to these overlooked men — fathers whose love is expressed through sacrifice rather than speech. However, de Mel does not romanticise the tears. Rather he humanises them. He allows their vulnerabilities, anxieties, and quiet despair to surface with honesty and compassion. In doing so, Nayanandaya fills a striking gap in Sri Lankan literature, reminding us that fathers, too, carry invisible wounds.
Literary value
With Nayanandaya, Surath de Mel reaches a new pinnacle in his literary craft. His language is dense yet lyrical, enriched with similes, metaphors, irony, and a full range of literary tools deployed with confidence and control.
One of the novel’s most touching narrative choices is the personification of Mahela’s son’s soft toy, Wonie. Through personified Wonie, de Mel captures the two most touching incidents in the entire novel . This simply reveals the author’s artistic maturity, transforming a simple object into a powerful emotional conduit that anchors the novel’s tenderness amidst its despair.
At a deeper symbolic level, Mahela himself can be read as more than an individual character, but a metaphor for Sri Lanka — a nation struggling under economic hardship, clinging to impractical dreams, witnessing the migration of its people, and drifting towards a slow, painful exhaustion. His personal failures could mirror the broader decay of social and economic structures. This symbolic reading lends Nayanandaya a haunting national resonance.
Today, many write and many publish, but only a few transform language into literature that lingers in the reader’s mind long after the final page. Surath de Mel belongs to that rare few. In a literary landscape crowded with voices, he remains devoted to art rather than popularity or trend. As a scholar of Sinhala language and literature, de Mel writes with intellectual depth, dark humour, and deep human empathy.
In conclusion, Nayanandaya is not merely a story; it is social commentary, psychoanalytic reflection, and tragic poetry woven into richly textured prose. With this novel — a masterful interlacing of love, debt, and fragile dreams — Surath de Mel engraves a distinctly Dostoevskian signature into Sinhala literature.
Reviewed by Dr. Charuni Kohombange
Features
Domestic Energy Saving
Around 40 percent of the annual energy we use is consumed in domestic activities. Energy is costly, and supply is not unlimited. Unfortunately, we realize the importance of energy – saving only during the time of a crisis.
If you adopt readily affordable energy-saving strategies, you will cut down your living expenditure substantially, relieving the energy burden of the nation. Here are some tips.
Cooking:
Cooking consumes a good portion of domestic energy demand and common practices, and negligence leads to 30 – 40 percent wastage. A simple experiment revealed that the energy expenditure in boiling an egg with the usual unnecessary excess water in an open pan is nearly 50 percent higher than boiling in a closed lid pan with the minimal amount of water. In an open pan, a large quantity of heat is lost via convection currents and expulsion of water vapor, carrying excessive amounts of heat energy (latent heat of vaporisation). Still, most of us boil potatoes for prolonged intervals of time in open receptacles, failing to realise that it is faster and more efficient to boil potatoes or any other food material in a closed pan. About 30 – 40 percent of domestic cooking energy requirements can be cut down by cooking in closed-lid pans. Furthermore, food cooked in closed pans is healthier because of less mixing with air that causes food oxidation. Fat oxidation generates toxic substances. In a closed- lid utensil (not tightly closed), food is covered with a blanket of water vapor at a positive pressure, preventing entry of air and therefore food oxidation.
Overcooking is another bad habit that not only wastes energy but also degrades the nutritional value of food.
Electric kettle:
For making morning or evening tea or preparing tea to serve a visitor. Do not pour an unnecessarily large quantity of water into the electric kettle. Note that the energy needed to make 10 cups of tea is ten times that of one cup.
Electric Ovens:
Avoid the use of electric ovens as far as possible. Remember that foods cooked at higher temperatures are generally unhealthy, and even carcinogens are formed when food is fried at higher temperatures in an oven. If ever you need to bake something in an oven, limit the number of times you open the door. Use smaller ovens adequate for the purpose and not larger ones just for fashion.
Refrigerators:
Refrigerators consume lots of energy. Do not use over-capacity refrigerators just for fashion. Every time you open the fridge, more electricity is used to reset the cooling temperature. Plan your access to the appliance accordingly. Check whether the doors are properly secured and there are no leakages. Keep the fridge in a cooler location, not hit by direct sunlight and away from warmer places in the kitchen. Remember that turning off the fridge frequently will not save energy, instead it draws more energy.
Use of gas burners:
Do not use oversized utensils. Keep the lid closed as far as possible to prevent the escape of heat. Remember that excessive amounts of heat energy are carried away by a large surface-area conducting utensil. Do not open the gas vent to allow the flame to flash outside the vessel. A flame not impinging on the pan would not heat it, and gas is wasted. Ensure that the flame is blue. Frequently check whether gas vents are clogged with rust and carbon. Frequently, cooking material in the pan drops into the gas vents, and salt there corrodes the gas vents. Cleaning and washing would be necessary. Do not prolong cooking, taking time to prepare ingredients and adding them to the pan intermittently. Add ingredients at once and before switching the burner. If the preparation of a dish is prolonged to slow the cooking, use earthenware pots rather than metallic ones. An earthenware pot, being thermally less conducting retain heat.
Firewood for cooking:
Do not attempt to eliminate the use of firewood in cooking. If you are living in a village area, the exclusive use of LPG gas is an unnecessary expenditure. Large smoke-free, efficient oven designs are now available. If you are compelled to use gas, keep the option of firewood ovens, especially for prolonged cooking. Admittedly, there are locations, especially in cities, where the use of firewood is unsuited.
Hot water showers:
Before installing hot water showers, reconsider whether they are really necessary in a hot tropical climate. Go for solar water heaters, although the installation cost is high. Instant water heaters consume much less electricity compared to geysers with water tanks. Now, cheap and safe instant water heaters are available.
Lighting:
Arrange and design your residence to optimise daytime illumination until late evening. If you are constructing a new house, take this issue into account. Use LED lamps, which provide the same illumination for 85 percent less energy. In study rooms and areas that require prolonged illumination, paint the walls white. Angle – poised LED lamps with very low voltage are available. Use them for reading and studies. Routinely clean the surfaces of all lamps. Dust deposition cuts off light.
Air conditioning and ventilation:
Air conditioning consumes prohibitively large quantities of electrical energy. You can avoid air conditioning by optimising ventilation. The principle is to have air entry points (windows) in the house near the ground level and exit points (vents or windows) near the roof. Ground level is cooler, and the region near the roof is warmer. Thus, a cool air current enters the house near the ground level and hot air is drawn by the vents near the roof. The region near the ground can be rendered cooler by planting trees. Architectural designs are available to optimise this effect. You can sense the direction of air motion by holding a thin strip of paper near the windows at the ground and near the roof level. In addition to ceiling fan, install exhaust fans in the upper points of the house to remove hot air and draw cooler air through windows near the ground. Reduce the amount of sunlight hitting the roof by shading with trees. There are techniques for increasing the reflectance of the roof with paints and other designs.
Transportation:
A good portion of your budget is drained by transportation. Irrespective of who you are, use public transport if convenient and available. As much as possible, use the telephone and email to get your things done. If the officers do not comply for no valid reason, complain. Plan your trips to the town to do several things at the same time. Whenever possible, plan to share transport. Buy energy – efficient small vehicles. Routinely examine your vehicle for energy efficiency, i.e. correct tire pressure etc.
Charge electric vehicles off peak hours. Slow charging reduces heat generation in the circuit, reducing energy loss.
Energy is costly and limited in supply. Everything you do consumes energy. Be energy conscious in all your deeds. That attitude will reduce your expenditure, lessen the environmental degradation and financial burden of the nation in importing fuel.
Educating the general public is the most effective way of implementing energy-saving strategies.
By Prof. Kirthi Tennakone
(kenna@yahoo.co.uk)
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