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The Thucydides Trap and Bilateral Relations

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Nuwara Eliya post office

by Dr Sarala Fernando

In an earlier article I had written about the return of “might is right” to international geopolitics affecting for example Ukraine and Palestine. In both cases ambitions of ” imperial expansion” by powerful nations is being met with resistance from the weaker neighbour in favour of “values of freedom and territorial integrity”. Political science students and military strategists are much influenced today by the notion of the “Thucydides Trap” coined by Graham Allison in his book “Destined for War” referring to Thucydides, an Athenian historian of the 5th century B.C.E who ascribed the great wars of the period to “the rise of Athens and the fear that instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable”. Allison reminds that history has provided several examples both where the clash of powerful nations ended in war and where war was avoided by effective diplomacy and wisdom depending on the character of the nations concerned and the values of their rulers.

Can this notion be a useful basis for the examination of bilateral relations between nations of unequal size and power? Can it explain why has there has been continuous fall-out from the President’s official visit to India in July especially as details become clear of the thrust of the India Sri Lanka Economic Partnership Vision dated July 21, 2023? The emphasis on “connectivity in all its dimensions as the key enabler” has been contested in the island to such an extent that it now seems to cast a shadow over Indian investment proposals however benign.

To take a recent example, the President was seen on live tv demanding that the historic Nuwara Eliya post office be given to India’s Taj group for redevelopment over the objections of the postal workers. What is interesting is that the storm of protest from the postal workers has been joined by other unions, including academics, leading hoteliers and some caution voiced even by the Mahanayakes. In the current thoughtless rush for foreign investment, questions are raised as to whether Nuwara Eliya needs another large hotel? It is after all a place of seasonal demand and any new luxury hotel which will capture the Indian tourist market will affect the local hotels there negatively.

In this time of crisis, should not government action be in support the local hoteliers instead of taking away their business across the Palk Straits? It is just another example of poor public diplomacy from the top given that its hardly likely that the Indian owners of Taj would want to get embroiled in such a public confrontation and would find it more embarrassing than helpful to their cause.

However, what is even more interesting is that the protests have stimulated a suggestion that the President’s House in Nuwara Eliya be given instead of the historic post office for redevelopment by the Taj group. It seems “the worm has turned” and the public is no longer willing to be at the end of this process of “selling the family silver”.

Indeed why should the rulers also not share the pain? Offering the Presidential House to the Indian investors would be a good political gesture and an excellent business proposition, enabling considerable savings from the President’s budget. The commercial development, with only a Presidential suite reserved for official use, will open up this building for better public viewing and use.

Many see the public berating of public service officials as an unhealthy precedent especially at a time when the cost of living is sky rocketing with the imposition of new taxes. It can only lead to widening of the gap between the rulers and the ruled and grow public skepticism about the direction of government strategy and thinking.

The postal service is a good example of this increasing divide, where the government only sees it as “loss making” in opposition to the general public who see the value of the Sri Lanka postal service which has maintained an excellent service even in times of crisis, able to deliver registered letter to the remotest corner of the island in a few days.

Recently, I visited the CTO to collect an undelivered registered letter and was amazed at the hive of activity in this old building with dust everywhere, bags of mail flying up and down despite the poor working conditions without proper lighting or ventilation. Since the ancient public lift was not working, kind courteous staff took me to the section concerned where my letter was found in a matter of minutes because of the systems in place.

Should not our rulers encourage and support local public services which are working well instead of trying to disrupt and destroy the morale of the workers? Should they not be turning to local entrepreneurs to stimulate business activities in these historic buildings and aiding their conservation instead of selling them off to foreign parties?

The confusion over basic economics is everywhere. Thus, even within the Cabinet, one Minister champions importing eggs from India over the objections of local producers and disrupting market prices. Has there been an accounting of the precious foreign exchange used for these purchases and whether the government cooperative Sathosa ran a profit from the lowering of egg prices?

Shouldn’t we be encouraging and finding ways to support local producers affected by the economic crisis? Posted to Switzerland some years ago I could not but notice how the Swiss brand is encouraged and local producers supported such that their consumers were willing to pay a higher price for their own products even though, across the open border, French stores sold everything from wine to cheese of similar or better quality much cheaper. The Swiss example shows the importance of building pride in the country and encouraging high standards of local manufacture. In my mind, import substitution, which is scorned by economists, is not a bad thing in practice especially at a time of crisis. National campaigns like “Make in India” are a good example of how to boost local production and stimulate national pride, even while the emphasis is on exports.

All these recent developments are raising questions on the present government strategy to “let the robber barons come”. Is any footloose foreign investment acceptable or should we be cautious about what is of real value to this country? Should we encourage for example the building of Asia’s tallest Buddha statute even as a state gift which will require mountains to be flattened for stones and digging more rivers for sand, causing more environmental damage at a time of climate crisis? Will this new monument cast into shadow the beauty of our ancient cultural assets and revive the conflict between Mahayana and Theravada streams?

Fortunately for India-Sri Lanka relations, the visit of the Indian Minister of Finance, that brilliant woman, economist and politician, Nirmala Sittaraman took place recently and the sincerity of her approach would have strengthened India’s public diplomacy. The political element, a huge gathering of Indian Tamil plantation community in Colombo, was balanced by the Indian Minister’s association with down to earth projects such as providing solar power assistance to places of religious worship hard hit by escalating electricity bills, interest in supporting educational projects and digitalization, walk about meeting young students at a tech fair in Jaffna etc.

As for the political elements, I wonder if anyone showed the Indian Minister the recent press release issued by the Planters Association noting all the progress made in the status of the Indian plantation labour community over the years, including health education and housing benefits. It is worth noting that their workforce has reduced in the RPC’s now to approximately 100,000 from an estimated 300,000 once strong community, with labour migrating out of the plantation sector.

In this time of uncertainty, bilateral defence cooperation between India and Sri Lanka is continuing to grow with regular high level exchanges, joint drills and enhanced training opportunities extended to the tri-services. Yet many questions remain of public concern. When the Indian Air Force aerobatics team came to display their prowess in Sri Lanka at the invitation of our Air Force, the public were asking about the costs incurred in this celebration of jets screeching overhead for days when the public were queuing for petrol, diesel and cooking gas.

Environmentalists are still asking questions whether the Malabar exercises in the Indian Ocean caused a huge pod of pilot whales to beach in Sri Lanka for the first time, possibly disoriented by submarine sonars. In the US, environmentalists have gone to court and got such drills and exercises canceled in sensitive coastal areas of marine habitation.

It is therefore fair to conclude that India’s interest to strengthen its military power in the region is coming into public conflict . In Sri Lanka, a decade after the end of the armed conflict, Sri Lankans are still waiting for a peace dividend and a reduction of defence expenditure in the budget in favour of increased social spending on national health and education systems. In the Maldives, it appears that previously accepted military aircraft as gifts from India have now run into controversy when it was found that as many as 75 Indian personnel were in the country to maintain and service the equipment.

Questions are now being asked in that country whether gifts of valuable military equipment could be a “deceptive method of positioning Indian soldiers within Maldivian borders”. It is only a matter of time before similar questions will be raised on the terms and conditions of the gift of a Dornier aircraft to Sri Lanka especially on the provision for our cash- strapped island to purchase another? How many Indian airmen are here to ostensibly train and service the Indian made aircraft and will this become a permanent stationing in Sri Lanka?

(Sarala Fernando, retired from the Foreign Ministry as Additional Secretary, her last Ambassadorial appointment was as Permanent Representative to the UN and International Organizations in Geneva . Her Ph.D was on India-Sri Lanka relations and she writes now on foreign policy, public diplomacy and protection of heritage).



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Meet the women protecting India’s snow leopards

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These women work with the local forest department to track and protect the snow leopard species [BBC]

In one of India’s coldest and most remote regions, a group of women have taken on an unlikely role: protecting one of Asia’s most elusive predators, the snow leopard.

Snow leopards are found in just 12 countries across Central and South Asia. India is home to one of the world’s largest populations, with a nationwide survey in 2023 – the first comprehensive count ever carried out in the country – estimating more than 700 animals, .

One of the places they roam is around Kibber village in Himachal Pradesh state’s Spiti Valley, a stark, high-altitude cold desert along the Himalayan belt. Here, snow leopards are often called the “ghosts of the mountains”, slipping silently across rocky slopes and rarely revealing themselves.

For generations, the animals were seen largely as a threat, for attacking livestock. But attitudes in Kibber and neighbouring villages are beginning to shift, as people increasingly recognise the snow leopard’s role as a top predator in the food chain and its importance in maintaining the region’s fragile mountain ecosystem.

Nearly a dozen local women are now working alongside the Himachal Pradesh forest department and conservationists to track and protect the species, playing a growing role in conservation efforts.

Locally, the snow leopard is known as Shen and the women call their group “Shenmo”. Trained to install and monitor camera traps, they handle devices fitted with unique IDs and memory cards that automatically photograph snow leopards as they pass.

“Earlier, men used to go and install the cameras and we kept wondering why couldn’t we do it too,” says Lobzang Yangchen, a local coordinator working with a small group supported by the non-profit Nature Conservation Foundation (NCF) in collaboration with the forest department.

Yangchen was among the women who helped collect data for Himachal Pradesh’s snow leopard survey in 2024, which found that the state was home to 83 snow leopards – up from 51 in 2021.

Spiti Wildlife Division A snow leopard looks into the camera
Snow leopards are often called the “ghosts of the mountains” because they are so hard to spot [BBC]

The survey documented snow leopards and 43 other species using camera traps spread across an area of nearly 26,000sq km (10,000sq miles). Individual leopards were identified by the unique rosette patterns on their fur, a standard technique used for spotted big cats. The findings are now feeding into wider conservation and habitat-management plans.

“Their contribution was critical to identifying individual animals,” says Goldy Chhabra, deputy conservator of forests with the Spiti Wildlife Division.

Collecting the data is demanding work. Most of it takes place in winter, when heavy snowfall pushes snow leopards and their prey to lower altitudes, making their routes easier to track.

On survey days, the women wake up early, finish household chores and gather at a base camp before travelling by vehicle as far as the terrain allows. From there, they trek several kilometres to reach camera sites, often at altitudes above 14,000ft (4,300m), where the thin air makes even simple movement exhausting.

The BBC accompanied the group on one such trek in December. After hours of walking in biting cold, the women suddenly stopped on a narrow trail.

Yangchen points to pugmarks in the dust: “This shows the snow leopard has been here recently. These pugmarks are fresh.”

Devesh Chopra/BBC A woman wearing a black and red scarf writes something in her notebook and a camera trap is placed in front of her.
The women set up cameras with unique IDs and memory cards, which capture an image of a snow leopard as soon as it passes through [BBC]

Along with pugmarks, the team looks for other signs, including scrapes and scent‑marking spots, before carefully fixing a camera to a rock along the trail.

One woman then carries out a “walk test”, crawling along the path to check whether the camera’s height and angle will capture a clear image.

The group then moves on to older sites, retrieving memory cards and replacing batteries installed weeks earlier.

By mid-afternoon, they return to camp to log and analyse the images using specialised software – tools many had never encountered before.

“I studied only until grade five,” says Chhering Lanzom. “At first, I was scared to use the computer. But slowly, we learned how to use the keyboard and mouse.”

The women joined the camera-trapping programme in 2023. Initially, conservation was not their motivation. But winters in the Spiti Valley are long and quiet, with little agricultural work to fall back on.

“At first, this work on snow leopards didn’t interest us,” Lobzang says. “We joined because we were curious and we could earn a small income.”

The women earn between 500 ($5.46; £4) and 700 rupees a day.

But beyond the money, the work has helped transform how the community views the animal.

Spiti Wildlife Division A woman looks at a computer screen which has a grab of a leopard.
Images captured by the camera traps are analysed using a special software [BBC]

“Earlier, we thought the snow leopard was our enemy,” says Dolma Zangmo, a local resident. “Now we think their conservation is important.”

Alongside survey work, the women help villagers access government insurance schemes for their livestock and promote the use of predator‑proof corrals – stone or mesh enclosures that protect animals at night.

Their efforts come at a time of growing recognition for the region. Spiti Valley has recently been included in the Cold Desert Biosphere Reserve, a Unesco-recognised network aimed at conserving fragile ecosystems while supporting local livelihoods.

As climate change reshapes the fragile trans-Himalayan landscape, conservationists say such community participation will be crucial to safeguarding species like the snow leopard.

“Once communities are involved, conservation becomes more sustainable,” says Deepshikha Sharma, programme manager with NCF’s High Altitudes initiative.

“These women are not just assisting, they are becoming practitioners of wildlife conservation and monitoring,” she adds.

As for the women, their work makes them feel closer to their home, the village and the mountains that raised them, they say.

“We were born here, this is all we know,” Lobzang says. “Sometimes we feel afraid because these snow leopards are after all predatory animals, but this is where we belong.”

[BBC]

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Freedom for giants: What Udawalawe really tells about human–elephant conflict

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Too many vehicles entering national parks

If elephants are truly to be given “freedom” in Udawalawe, the solution is not simply to open gates or redraw park boundaries. The map itself tells the real story — a story of shrinking habitats, broken corridors, and more than a decade of silent but relentless ecological destruction.

“Look at Udawalawe today and compare it with satellite maps from ten years ago,” says Sameera Weerathunga, one of Sri Lanka’s most consistent and vocal elephant conservation activists. “You don’t need complicated science. You can literally see what we have done to them.”

What we commonly describe as the human–elephant conflict (HEC) is, in reality, a land-use conflict driven by development policies that ignore ecological realities. Elephants are not invading villages; villages, farms, highways and megaprojects have steadily invaded elephant landscapes.

Udawalawe: From Landscape to Island

Udawalawe National Park was once part of a vast ecological network connecting the southern dry zone to the central highlands and eastern forests. Elephants moved freely between Udawalawe, Lunugamvehera, Bundala, Gal Oya and even parts of the Walawe river basin, following seasonal water and food availability.

Today, Udawalawe appears on the map as a shrinking green island surrounded by human settlements, monoculture plantations, reservoirs, electric fences and asphalt.

“For elephants, Udawalawe is like a prison surrounded by invisible walls,” Sameera explains. “We expect animals that evolved to roam hundreds of square nationakilometres to survive inside a box created by humans.”

Elephants are ecosystem engineers. They shape forests by dispersing seeds, opening pathways, and regulating vegetation. Their survival depends on movement — not containment. But in Udawalawa, movement is precisely what has been taken away.

Over the past decade, ancient elephant corridors have been blocked or erased by:

Irrigation and agricultural expansion

Tourism resorts and safari infrastructure

New roads, highways and power lines

Human settlements inside former forest reserves

Sameera

“The destruction didn’t happen overnight,” Sameera says. “It happened project by project, fence by fence, without anyone looking at the cumulative impact.”

The Illusion of Protection

Sri Lanka prides itself on its protected area network. Yet most national parks function as ecological islands rather than connected systems.

“We think declaring land as a ‘national park’ is enough,” Sameera argues. “But protection without connectivity is just slow extinction.”

Udawalawe currently holds far more elephants than it can sustainably support. The result is habitat degradation inside the park, increased competition for resources, and escalating conflict along the boundaries.

“When elephants cannot move naturally, they turn to crops, tanks and villages,” Sameera says. “And then we blame the elephant for being a problem.”

The Other Side of the Map: Wanni and Hambantota

Sameera often points to the irony visible on the very same map. While elephants are squeezed into overcrowded parks in the south, large landscapes remain in the Wanni, parts of Hambantota and the eastern dry zone where elephant density is naturally lower and ecological space still exists.

“We keep talking about Udawalawe as if it’s the only place elephants exist,” he says. “But the real question is why we are not restoring and reconnecting landscapes elsewhere.”

The Hambantota MER (Managed Elephant Reserve), for instance, was originally designed as a landscape-level solution. The idea was not to trap elephants inside fences, but to manage land use so that people and elephants could coexist through zoning, seasonal access, and corridor protection.

“But what happened?” Sameera asks. “Instead of managing land, we managed elephants. We translocated them, fenced them, chased them, tranquilised them. And the conflict only got worse.”

The Failure of Translocation

For decades, Sri Lanka relied heavily on elephant translocation as a conflict management tool. Hundreds of elephants were captured from conflict zones and released into national parks like Udawalawa, Yala and Wilpattu.

Elephant deaths

The logic was simple: remove the elephant, remove the problem.

The reality was tragic.

“Most translocated elephants try to return home,” Sameera explains. “They walk hundreds of kilometres, crossing highways, railway lines and villages. Many die from exhaustion, accidents or gunshots. Others become even more aggressive.”

Scientific studies now confirm what conservationists warned from the beginning: translocation increases stress, mortality, and conflict. Displaced elephants often lose social structures, familiar landscapes, and access to traditional water sources.

“You cannot solve a spatial problem with a transport solution,” Sameera says bluntly.

In many cases, the same elephant is captured and moved multiple times — a process that only deepens trauma and behavioural change.

Freedom Is Not About Removing Fences

The popular slogan “give elephants freedom” has become emotionally powerful but scientifically misleading. Elephants do not need symbolic freedom; they need functional landscapes.

Real solutions lie in:

Restoring elephant corridors

Preventing development in key migratory routes

Creating buffer zones with elephant-friendly crops

Community-based land-use planning

Landscape-level conservation instead of park-based thinking

“We must stop treating national parks like wildlife prisons and villages like war zones,” Sameera insists. “The real battlefield is land policy.”

Electric fences, for instance, are often promoted as a solution. But fences merely shift conflict from one village to another.

“A fence does not create peace,” Sameera says. “It just moves the problem down the line.”

A Crisis Created by Humans

Sri Lanka loses more than 400 elephants and nearly 100 humans every year due to HEC — one of the highest rates globally.

Yet Sameera refuses to call it a wildlife problem.

“This is a human-created crisis,” he says. “Elephants are only responding to what we’ve done to their world.”

From expressways cutting through forests to solar farms replacing scrublands, development continues without ecological memory or long-term planning.

“We plan five-year political cycles,” Sameera notes. “Elephants plan in centuries.”

The tragedy is not just ecological. It is moral.

“We are destroying a species that is central to our culture, religion, tourism and identity,” Sameera says. “And then we act surprised when they fight back.”

The Question We Avoid Asking

If Udawalawe is overcrowded, if Yala is saturated, if Wilpattu is bursting — then the real question is not where to put elephants.

The real question is: Where have we left space for wildness in Sri Lanka?

Sameera believes the future lies not in more fences or more parks, but in reimagining land itself.

“Conservation cannot survive as an island inside a development ocean,” he says. “Either we redesign Sri Lanka to include elephants, or one day we’ll only see them in logos, statues and children’s books.”

And the map will show nothing but empty green patches — places where giants once walked, and humans chose. roads instead.

By Ifham Nizam

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Challenges faced by the media in South Asia in fostering regionalism

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Main speaker Roman Gautam (R) and Executive Director, RCSS, Ambassador (Retd) Ravinatha Aryasinha.

SAARC or the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation has been declared ‘dead’ by some sections in South Asia and the idea seems to be catching on. Over the years the evidence seems to have been building that this is so, but a matter that requires thorough probing is whether the media in South Asia, given the vital part it could play in fostering regional amity, has had a role too in bringing about SAARC’s apparent demise.

That South Asian governments have had a hand in the ‘SAARC debacle’ is plain to see. For example, it is beyond doubt that the India-Pakistan rivalry has invariably got in the way, particularly over the past 15 years or thereabouts, of the Indian and Pakistani governments sitting at the negotiating table and in a spirit of reconciliation resolving the vexatious issues growing out of the SAARC exercise. The inaction had a paralyzing effect on the organization.

Unfortunately the rest of South Asian governments too have not seen it to be in the collective interest of the region to explore ways of jump-starting the SAARC process and sustaining it. That is, a lack of statesmanship on the part of the SAARC Eight is clearly in evidence. Narrow national interests have been allowed to hijack and derail the cooperative process that ought to be at the heart of the SAARC initiative.

However, a dimension that has hitherto gone comparatively unaddressed is the largely negative role sections of the media in the SAARC region could play in debilitating regional cooperation and amity. We had some thought-provoking ‘takes’ on this question recently from Roman Gautam, the editor of ‘Himal Southasian’.

Gautam was delivering the third of talks on February 2nd in the RCSS Strategic Dialogue Series under the aegis of the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies, Colombo, at the latter’s conference hall. The forum was ably presided over by RCSS Executive Director and Ambassador (Retd.) Ravinatha Aryasinha who, among other things, ensured lively participation on the part of the attendees at the Q&A which followed the main presentation. The talk was titled, ‘Where does the media stand in connecting (or dividing) Southasia?’.

Gautam singled out those sections of the Indian media that are tamely subservient to Indian governments, including those that are professedly independent, for the glaring lack of, among other things, regionalism or collective amity within South Asia. These sections of the media, it was pointed out, pander easily to the narratives framed by the Indian centre on developments in the region and fall easy prey, as it were, to the nationalist forces that are supportive of the latter. Consequently, divisive forces within the region receive a boost which is hugely detrimental to regional cooperation.

Two cases in point, Gautam pointed out, were the recent political upheavals in Nepal and Bangladesh. In each of these cases stray opinions favorable to India voiced by a few participants in the relevant protests were clung on to by sections of the Indian media covering these trouble spots. In the case of Nepal, to consider one example, a young protester’s single comment to the effect that Nepal too needed a firm leader like Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was seized upon by the Indian media and fed to audiences at home in a sensational, exaggerated fashion. No effort was made by the Indian media to canvass more opinions on this matter or to extensively research the issue.

In the case of Bangladesh, widely held rumours that the Hindus in the country were being hunted and killed, pogrom fashion, and that the crisis was all about this was propagated by the relevant sections of the Indian media. This was a clear pandering to religious extremist sentiment in India. Once again, essentially hearsay stories were given prominence with hardly any effort at understanding what the crisis was really all about. There is no doubt that anti-Muslim sentiment in India would have been further fueled.

Gautam was of the view that, in the main, it is fear of victimization of the relevant sections of the media by the Indian centre and anxiety over financial reprisals and like punitive measures by the latter that prompted the media to frame their narratives in these terms. It is important to keep in mind these ‘structures’ within which the Indian media works, we were told. The issue in other words, is a question of the media completely subjugating themselves to the ruling powers.

Basically, the need for financial survival on the part of the Indian media, it was pointed out, prompted it to subscribe to the prejudices and partialities of the Indian centre. A failure to abide by the official line could spell financial ruin for the media.

A principal question that occurred to this columnist was whether the ‘Indian media’ referred to by Gautam referred to the totality of the Indian media or whether he had in mind some divisive, chauvinistic and narrow-based elements within it. If the latter is the case it would not be fair to generalize one’s comments to cover the entirety of the Indian media. Nevertheless, it is a matter for further research.

However, an overall point made by the speaker that as a result of the above referred to negative media practices South Asian regionalism has suffered badly needs to be taken. Certainly, as matters stand currently, there is a very real information gap about South Asian realities among South Asian publics and harmful media practices account considerably for such ignorance which gets in the way of South Asian cooperation and amity.

Moreover, divisive, chauvinistic media are widespread and active in South Asia. Sri Lanka has a fair share of this species of media and the latter are not doing the country any good, leave alone the region. All in all, the democratic spirit has gone well into decline all over the region.

The above is a huge problem that needs to be managed reflectively by democratic rulers and their allied publics in South Asia and the region’s more enlightened media could play a constructive role in taking up this challenge. The latter need to take the initiative to come together and deliberate on the questions at hand. To succeed in such efforts they do not need the backing of governments. What is of paramount importance is the vision and grit to go the extra mile.

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