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Sri Lanka’s Perennial Rice Crisis: Scarcity Despite Self-Sufficiency

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The Farmer in the Dell

by Rajan Philips

The ideological Left and Right in Sri Lanka have staked out their positions on the country’s perennial rice crisis. In the view of the ideological Left, the country’s food crisis including the recent rice crisis is even traceable to the allegedly flawed IMF program. And the preferred solution is getting back to the future and achieving self-sufficiency in food based on a public distribution system that has been neglected and/or abandoned after 1977. What is conveniently forgotten is the scourge of shortages and the ridiculous restrictions on inter-district movement of rice before 1977 that set the political stage ready for the ideological and even habitual, but not at all pragmatically calibrated, launching of economic liberalization.

For the Right which is nowhere near what it was in 1977, the current and the recurrent September to December rice crisis is the cumulative result of the failed policies of price controls, import controls that were reintroduced after 2005, and the old self sufficiency mindset itself. Open up the market for locally produced rice to compete with imported rice and establish steady supplies and a price equilibrium. If prices occasionally rise to become unaffordable, people can eat bread until the hidden hand imposes a new price equilibrium. That is the gospel according to the Right.

Self-sufficiency in Rice

The fact of the matter is that based on annual production and consumption estimates, Sri Lanka has achieved self-sufficiency in rice, and this has been so for about three decades. That it happened under the open economy is not denied. In fact, pursuing self-sufficiency in rice has been a traditional UNP goal and not the SLFP’s. CP de Silva after an illustrious Civil Service career working under Prime Minister DS Senanayake, introduced self-sufficiency to the SLFP vocabulary after becoming a powerful Minister in the 1956 SWRD Bandaranaike government. He was quickly rebuked in parliament by his elder cousin, the LSSP’s Colvin R de Silva, that “one can achieve self-sufficiency only in one’s grave.”

Positive free trade has historically been the cry of the Left from the 19th century. Yet specific to rice and Sri Lanka, the balanced position articulated by Dr. Gamani Corea is a timeless advice, that “agricultural policies should not be guided entirely by considerations of comparative advantage,” … and that it would be “fool-hardy not to achieve a minimum self-reliance in basic food stuffs.” And none more so than in the areas paddy cultivation and rice production that have been so integral to Sri Lanka’s civilizational existence.

Rice in the Mill

At the same time, self-sufficiency in rice is not assured year after year due to adverse climate conditions. Alternating droughts and floods can upset all the self-sufficiency planning, as it happened in 2016. Now we know economic blunders such as the man-made fertilizer crisis can drastically impact our self-sufficiency as we saw in 2022. One would hope that the Rajapaksa history will never repeat itself, but weather disruptions can occur any year and every year. So, there has to be a well laid out Plan B for dealing with shortfalls in rice due to weather conditions.

But the recurrent September-December rice crisis is not due to weather but the manipulation of the supply-demand imbalance between the near constant monthly demand for rice and its biannual supply from the harvests of the Maha and Yala cultivating seasons. The well established seasonal pattern is that the main Maha season accounts for about 60% of local production and its harvest arrives in the mostly in the month of March every year. The harvest of the smaller Yala season brings the balance 40% usually during the month of August.

Monthly ‘Rice-Flow’

The paddy and rice statistics for the year 2023 indicate a total production of just over 3.0M metric tons of rice (out of 4.5M metric tons of paddy) and a total consumption of just under 2.5M metric tons, indicating a net surplus of about half a million metric tons. The monthly ‘rice-flow’ is conditioned by the steady monthly demand of approximately 205,000 metric tons of rice and its biannual points of supply of 1.8M metric tons of the Maha season rice in March-April, and 1.2M metric tons of the Yala season rice in August-September.

The Maha season supply of 1.8M metric tons alone can meet the monthly requirements until about the month of October. With the addition of the Yala supply of 1.2M metric tons by September, a positive ‘rice-flow’ can be maintained (with a surplus of 0.5M metric tons) until the next Maha harvest. This would usually be the case every year unless there is a weather disruption. The recurrent reality, however, is that supply levels drop, and prices increase during the months of September to December, causing rice shortages and price increases and forcing governments to rush in rice imports and exercise price control to avoid a political crisis. Usually, the governments’ remedies have been making matters worse.

The monthly retail price fluctuation is across the main paddy and rice types (samba, nadu, red rice etc.) and it has shown a generally consistent pattern of increasing prices from September to December, falling prices from January to March, slight increases in April, May and June, and ending with decreases over July and August. The highest retail price per kilogram of rice is registered in December and the lowest in March, with a Rs. 10 to Rs. 15 average difference between the two.

The general diagnosis is that the rising price from September to December and the falling price from January to March is the result of supply manipulation by a few large rice millers with large storage capacities who collude among them to restrict supply before December and glut the market after January. The main objective would seem to be not profiteering in the months of September to January but driving down the prices after January so that the millers can pay the minimum price to the farmers for purchasing paddy after the new Maha season harvest in March. The farmers are constantly in a bind no matter what the season is. They have no storage capacity and are constrained to turn over their harvest not to any miller or buyer, but generally to the one to whom they are invariably indebted to for obtaining seed paddy, purchasing fertilizer and other inputs.

The alternative explanation is that the rice stocks with millers go down during the year end months even as the demand for rice slightly goes up due to the increase in the number of tourists arriving in the country. When imports were freely allowed, the explanation goes, the recurring shortfalls were compensated by imported rice varieties so that rice supplies were maintained, and sharp price increases were avoided. This pattern was apparently broken after 2005 by the restriction on imports and high import duties and the impacts on the people became harder.

But the dispute over imports does not explain why rice stocks should fall below demand levels at any time during the year unless there have been weather disruptions. The additional demand attributed to tourist populations or beer production is likely to marginal at best. While there must be flexibility in turning to imports to deal with shortfalls in local production due to adverse whether conditions, relying on imports should not be the answer to supply manipulations by large rice millers.

Todate the problem of the market power of the large rice millers has been seen as more of a political problem but not as a technical as a technical challenge. At the political level, i.e., ministerial and cabinet level, the response to the rice crisis all these years has been one of inaction and overreaction. The inaction is by the government towards the widely acknowledged problem of a handful of large rice millers controlling the marketing and pricing of locally produced rice during the inter-seasonal months between end of the yala season harvest and the beginning of the maha season harvest. The overreaction is also by the government to address rice shortage and price increase by enforcing price controls and allowing rice imports.

For the present NPP government, unlike its recent predecessors, there is no evidence of there being vested interests to be served or having economic IOUs to anyone. On the other hand, every government this century – whether governments of the Rajapaksas by the Rajapaksas for the Rajapaksas, or the Sirisena-Ranil misadventure, or the Ranil-Rajapaksa caretaker regime – have been notorious for safeguarding vested interests and doling out IOUs. Or mostly IOUs in the case of the Rajapaksas.

As well, the NPP government notwithstanding its ideological prehistory is turning out to be the most practical government that this country has seen in a long time. By being practical in governing – I mean a governing approach to achieve results through actions based on evidence and information. Specific to the rice situation, Sri Lanka has gone through both the public distribution system and the private marketing system, and neither approach has by itself always produced the desired results.

Being practical in this instance would mean leveraging what works and under-using what does not. It also means that the government must rapidly work towards establishing a comprehensive database covering the rice milling industry, as well as a marketing information system for the rice sector at all levels. Agricultural Economists and Professionals have been calling for this for some time and it is a task that requires the government’s immediate attention.

(To be continued)



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US withdrawal from UNHRC, a boon to political repression and ultra-nationalism

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President Trump in a meeting with President Putin. The New York Times

The US’ reported withdrawal from the UNHRC and some other vital UN agencies could be seen as a fillip to anti-democratic and ultra-nationalistic forces worldwide. Besides, the stark message is being conveyed that the developing regions of the world would from now on suffer further impoverishment and powerlessness.

The UNHRC needs to be more effective and proactive in bringing to book those states that are lagging in upholding and implementing human rights standards. But thus far it has been notable in the main in only ‘naming and shaming’ periodically those countries that stand accused of human rights and associated violations. More states and their rulers who have proved notorious violators of International Law, for instance, need to be brought to justice.

Hopefully, the UNHRC would be more dynamic in carrying out its responsibilities going forward but it needs material, moral and financial sustenance in increasing measure as it goes about trying to implement its brief. By withdrawing its support for the UNHRC at this juncture the US has further weakened the body and thereby provided a stimulant to the forces of repression worldwide.

What ought to be equally disquieting for the ethically-conscious is the withdrawal of US support for the WHO, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees or the UNRWA and the Paris Climate Agreement. With these actions the US under President Donald Trump has forfeited all claims to being the world’s foremost democracy. It could no longer lead from the front, so to speak, in championing human rights and democratic development.

It is no coincidence that almost at the time of these decisions by the US, President Trump is meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. At the time of writing what transpired at these talks is not known to the public but it is plain to see that under the ultra-rightist Israeli Prime Minister, there would be no easy closure to the Middle East conflict and the accompanying blood-letting.

This is in view of the fact that the hawkish Trump administration would be hand-in-glove with the Netanyahu regime right along. There would be no political solution in the foreseeable future nor could it be guaranteed by the main stakeholders to the Middle East question that the current ceasefire would continue.

As mentioned in this column before, Israel would need strong security guarantees from the Palestinian camp and its supporters before it sits earnestly at the negotiating table but a policy of repression by the Israeli state would in no way help in resolving the conflict and in ushering even a measure of peace in the region. With the staunch support of the Trump administration the Netanyahu regime could stave off Palestinian resistance for the time being and save face among its supporters but peace in the Middle East would continue to be a lost cause.

The issues in focus would only be further compounded by the US decision to cease support for the rehabilitation and material sustenance of Palestinian refugees. This policy decision would only result in the further alienation and estrangement of Palestinians from the Western world. Consequently, Intifada-type uprisings should only be expected in the future.

As should be obvious, the US decision to pull out of the WHO would further weaken this vital agency of the UN. A drop in material, medical and financial assistance for the WHO would translate into graver hardships for the suffering civilians in the world’s conflict and war zones. The end result could be the alienation of the communities concerned from the wider international community, resulting in escalating law and order and governance issues worldwide. Among other things, the world would be having on its hands aggravating identity politics consequent to civilian publics being radicalized.

Considering the foregoing, the inference is inescapable that the US is heading in the direction of increasing international isolation and a policy of disengaging from multilateral institutions and arrangements geared to worthy causes that could serve world peace. As matters stand, it would not be wrong to conclude that the Trump administration is quite content with the prevailing ‘international disorder’.

One of the most negative consequences of the US decision to pull out of the UNHRC is the encouragement the forces of repression and ultra-nationalism could gain by it. In almost all the states of South Asia, to consider one region that is notable from this viewpoint, the forces of ultra-nationalism and majoritarian chauvinism could be said to be predominant.

Unfortunately, such forces seem to be on the rise once again in even post-Hasina Bangladesh. In Sri Lanka these forces are somewhat dormant at present but they could erupt to the surface, depending on how diligently the present government guards against their rise.

However, the government of Sri Lanka could not be said to be going the extra mile currently to blunt the appeal of ultra-nationalism, whether it is of the Southern kind or of the Northern kind. Crunch time for the Sri Lankan state would come when it has to seriously cooperate with the UNHRC and help bring those accused of war crimes in Sri Lanka to justice. On whether it could cooperate in this exercise would depend the democratic credentials of the present regime.

The cumulative result of the Trump administration weakening the UN and its agencies would be the relentless rise of anti-democratic, fascistic and repressive regimes the world over. Given this backdrop, one could expect the war in the Ukraine and those wasting civil wars in Africa to rage on. In the case of the Ukraine, the possibility of the US and NATO not being of one mind on ways of ending the war there, could render closure of the conflict any time soon impossible.

However, waiting on the US with the expectation that it would be pulling itself together, so to speak, before long and addressing the issue of international law and order would be tantamount to handing over the world to a most uncertain future. It is highly unlikely that the Trump administration would prove equal to the challenge of bringing even a measure of order out of the current global chaos, given the primacy it would be attaching to what it sees as its national interest.

Rather than wait in suspense, democracy oriented sections the world over would do well to come together in a meeting of minds, with the UN playing a catalytic role in it, to figure out how they could pool all the resources at their command to bring about a world order that would be more respectful of International Law in word and spirit.

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‘The Onset: A Short Story’: A philosophical drama attempting to redefine perception and cinema

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A scene from the movie with Hannah Brennen and Matt Heakes

Debut filmmaker, Thevin Gamage, presents a bold challenge to the time-honoured conventions of cinema. Through his daring short film, Thevin invites audiences to reconsider ‘the truth’ of cinematic rules. The 180-degree rule is broken with seamless subtlety, and a fresh perspective is offered on breaking the fourth wall.

This 13+ minute dialogue-driven drama, ‘The Onset: A Short Story’ featuring two actors and created with the collaboration of a debut cinematographer, was shot entirely in his living room—a testament to ingenuity and creative audacity.

The film not only aims to redefine the language of cinema but also thematically contests one of Plato’s most renowned teachings—The Allegory of the Cave. Thevin offers a fresh lens to examine ‘truth’ blending bold cinematic innovation with a philosophical exploration of perception, arrogance, and enlightenment.

At its heart, this story reflects the universal tension between belief and truth, highlighting the cost of breaking free from illusions. His debut is both a defiant act of rebellion and a bold invitation to shape the evolution of future cinema, leaving audiences with as many questions as answers.

Born into a family of artists in Sri Lanka, Thevin, grew up surrounded by a legacy of creativity yet confined by the traditional expectations of society. His parents achieved success as actors and later as entrepreneurs.

For Thevin, questioning the rules was not rebellion for its own sake—it was a search for freedom, truth, and new perspectives. This drive began in childhood, where strict parental expectations collided with his innate creativity. Movies became his escape, a lens through which he experienced life, love, and possibility.

Yet it wasn’t until his late twenties, after years of academic success and professional detours that he finally embraced his calling as a filmmaker. His audacious short film bridges his personal journey with his artistic vision. By breaking the 180-degree rule and redefining the fourth wall, the film demonstrates that cinematic rules can evolve—not as acts of rebellion, but as purposeful explorations of storytelling.

In the spirit of art and its boundless novelty, Thevin Gamage seeks to induct exactly that: originality.

His debut film is a bold exploration of cinematic boundaries and philosophical inquiry, redefining two foundational principles of cinema. This film invites audiences to experience a narrative that subtly bends the historical rules of the 180-degree rule and the fourth wall—often without them even realizing it.

This debut dares you.

It’s a resolute challenge to tradition and a provocative reminder that “rules” are just a few letters that form a word.

****

About young filmmaker

Thevin Gamage

Thevin Gamage is a South Asian filmmaker whose journey reflects both a profound reverence for tradition and an unrelenting desire to transcend it.

Born into a family of artists in Sri Lanka, Thevin was shaped by a legacy of creativity and resilience. His grandfather, Sri Lanka’s first film makeup artist, pioneered his craft with remarkable dedication, laying the foundation for a family deeply rooted in the arts. Though Thevin never met him, his grandfather Regie de Silva’strailblazing work ethic and passion for storytelling helped shape the family ethos, inspiring Thevin’s mother and, in turn, Thevin himself. Reggie was the first Sri Lankan makeup artist. He went to India for his studies in makeup artistry and was active during the era when B.A.W. Jayamanne and Rukmani Devi pioneered the Sri Lankan film industry.

Thevin’s mother, Kumudumali De Silva, a celebrated Best Supporting Actress winner two decades ago and recent Lifetime Achievement Award honoree for her contributions to the wedding industry, met his father, Nihal Gamage, while on set. Together, they transitioned from the entertainment industry to entrepreneurial success, founding a wedding photography and bridal dressing business. Their ventures flourished, even leading to the publication of their own wedding magazine, providing a middle-class life of success and recognition.

Despite these creative roots, societal expectations in Sri Lanka compelled Thevin to pursue academics. After excelling at the University of Toronto with a degree in Political Science, Economics, and Psychology, Thevin still yearned for storytelling. In his late twenties, after years of professional detours, he enrolled in film school and committed fully to his craft.

Operating outside the framework of traditional film production companies, Thevin embraced the challenges of independence. From conceptualization to execution, his debut film is a testament to his determination, ingenuity, and unwavering commitment to his vision. His journey as an independent filmmaker exemplifies the power of creative freedom to challenge norms and shape unique perspectives.

Thevin’s work invites audiences to question, reimagine, and ultimately transform their understanding of storytelling. His journey is not just one of artistic pursuit but an act of defiance—an effort to inspire others to embrace the power of the arts and forge paths beyond traditional norms.

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Top three at 40th Mrs World pageant

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Mrs World – South Africa: Tshego Gaelae (L) / First Runner-up – Sri Lanka: Ishadi Amanda (M) / Second Runner-up – Thailand: Ploy Panperm (R)

While South African model Tshego Gaelae becomes the first Black woman to win the Mrs. World title in its 40-year history, we, too, were in the spotlight, at the finals.

Ishadi Amanda took the No. 02 slot, being the first runner-up at the prestigious pageant, held in Las Vegas, USA, from 29-30 January, 2025.

Thailand’s Ploy Panperm was placed third, as the second runner-up.

Sri Lanka’s Ishadi had support from the audience when her name was announced as one of the three finalists.

The Mrs World pageant winner, from South Africa, expressed her thanks on Instagram, saying, “To God be the glory. Thank you so much for the love and support, I am beyond grateful and elated! My beautiful South Africa, the crown is coming home,” she shared with her followers, encapsulating her elation and gratitude.

The Mrs World pageant, established in 1984, stands as the first international beauty contest solely for married women, providing a platform for married contestants to showcase not just their beauty, but also their intellect and community outreach efforts.

Before being picked as the winner, Mrs South Africa was asked: “What is the biggest challenge you have faced and achieved?” And her answer was brilliant:

Rosy Senanayake: Mrs World 1984

“I was so stressed on social media. Social media people should use it to share knowledge and good things. But it’s used to stress people out. But I stood up for myself without that social media pressure. I used the same social media that stressed me out to share good thoughts and hope to get to the victorious place I am today.”

Gaelae’s success is a testament to the ideals celebrated by the pageant, where diversity and empowerment take centre stage.

Gaelae balances her roles as a devoted mother, wife, labour relations manager, and model.

Being the first black woman to clinch the title at the Mrs World pageant has ignited a sense of pride and celebration among South Africans.

The Mrs South Africa Organisation, which played a crucial role in supporting Gaelae’s remarkable journey, also expressed their pride through a statement: “From Soweto to Vegas and now the World, @mrsworldpageant The Crown is Coming Home! Thank you to everyone who supported our queen on her incredible Journey.”

Gaelae returned home to a triumphant celebration fit for a queen.

At the airport to welcome her were her family, friends, church community, the Mrs South African team board and alumni, and the Executive Mayor of Johannesburg.

The crowning of the 40th Mrs World winner

And, guess what? Gaelae is now in touch with me!

Second Runner-up Mrs Thailand Ploy Panperm is quoted as having said: “I believe that modern married women have the potential to excel in multiple roles – as wives, mothers and even as beauty queens – embodying intelligence, talent and beauty.”

For the record, it was our very own Rosy Senanayake who brought Sri Lanka fame at this pageant … being crowned Mrs World at the very first Mrs World pageant, in 1984.

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