Features
Sri Lanka’s 2026 Budget: Fiscal balance meets economic progress
The government budget is the nation’s key economic policy document — the primary instrument through which a state translates its political priorities into concrete economic action. Sri Lanka’s 2026 Budget comes at a crucial juncture, following the severe macroeconomic crisis of 2022, the implementation of an IMF-supported stabilization programme, and the ongoing debt restructuring process. As the country enters a phase of gradual recovery, the government faces the delicate task of balancing fiscal discipline, social protection, and growth-oriented investment.
A government budget functions both as a financial plan and a policy document. It outlines projected revenues and planned expenditures for a fiscal year, sets tax and spending priorities, and articulates the government’s broader macroeconomic objectives — economic growth, price stability, social equity, and debt sustainability. Unlike a corporate budget focused purely on profits and losses, a national budget integrates non-financial policy objectives such as welfare, security, and the provision of public goods, while also reflecting political trade-offs and long-term commitments like pensions and public debt.
Why the budget matters:
= Macroeconomic stability: The budget shapes fiscal deficits, public debt paths, and influences inflation and interest rates. Sound fiscal management builds confidence among investors, international partners, and citizens alike.
= Resource allocation: Through its expenditure framework, the budget determines how resources are distributed among key sectors such as health, education, and infrastructure, directly affecting service delivery and development outcomes.
= Redistribution: Taxation and social transfer mechanisms embedded within the budget play a key role in determining income distribution and social equity.
= Signalling and governance: The budget serves as a policy signal to both markets and the public. A transparent and accountable budget process enhances trust, governance quality, and institutional credibility.
The Importance of the Government Budget
A national budget is more than a financial plan — it is the government’s main tool for turning policy goals into economic action. Its impact extends across all sectors of society, shaping stability, confidence, and development.
= For the Economy:
A credible budget anchors macroeconomic expectations, manages fiscal deficits, and supports investment by ensuring stability and predictability.
= For Investors:
It signals policy direction on taxation, spending, and fiscal priorities. Transparent and consistent budgeting reduces risk and builds investor confidence.
= For Households:
Budgets fund essential services such as health, education, and social protection, helping safeguard vulnerable groups and promote inclusive growth.
= For Public Institutions:
They guide operational priorities of ministries while ensuring transparency and accountability through parliamentary and civic oversight.
= For Creditors and Partners:
Budgets demonstrate fiscal discipline and reform commitment, strengthening credibility with international lenders and development agencies.
Characteristics of a “Best Practice” Government Budget
= Macroeconomic Consistency: Based on realistic, transparent assumptions for GDP, inflation, and interest rates, aligned with monetary policy.
= Fiscal Sustainability: Maintains credible deficit and debt targets within a medium-term fiscal framework.
= Strategic Focus: Links annual spending to medium-term policy goals and development priorities.
= Prioritization & Efficiency: Directs funds to high-impact investments and social protection while reducing wasteful spending.
= Transparency: Ensures public access to budget data, fostering accountability and investor trust.
= Realistic Revenue & Tax Design: Uses conservative revenue estimates and broad, fair, growth-friendly taxation.
= Strong Public Financial Management: Strengthens controls, procurement, and cash management to reduce leakages.
= Countercyclical Flexibility: Allows fiscal adjustment to respond effectively to economic shocks.
= Inclusivity: Protects vulnerable groups through funding for welfare, education, and healthcare.
= Monitoring & Evaluation: Uses measurable indicators and reviews to enhance performance and accountability.
Special Features of Sri Lanka’s 2026 Budget
Sri Lanka’s 2026 Budget marks a shift from crisis recovery to sustainable growth while staying aligned with IMF-supported fiscal frameworks. It emphasizes fiscal discipline, revenue mobilization, and investment-led growth.
Key Highlights:
= IMF Alignment: The budget follows IMF fiscal targets on deficit reduction, revenue growth, and achieving a primary surplus to restore debt sustainability.
· Revenue Mobilization: Focus on expanding the tax base, improving administration, and digitalizing systems to raise revenue-to-GDP ratios sustainably.
= Debt Management: Debt restructuring eased pressures but requires transparent reporting and credible medium-term plans to maintain stability.
= Capital Expenditure Push: Increased capital spending to close infrastructure gaps and stimulate private investment and productivity.
= Subsidy and Expenditure Reform: Rationalizing subsidies and recurrent costs while protecting key social sectors like health, education, and welfare.
= Transparency and PFM Reforms: Ongoing improvements in treasury operations, cash-flow forecasting, and procurement to enhance accountability.
Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination
Fiscal policy (spending and taxation) and monetary policy (interest rates and liquidity) must work together for stability.
= Debt & Interest Rates: Large deficits can raise interest rates and crowd out private credit; external borrowing raises currency risks.
= Inflation Control: Expansionary budgets can fuel inflation, prompting tighter monetary policy and higher borrowing costs.
= Policy Coordination: Fiscal discipline supports central bank independence and price stability.
Sri Lanka’s Central Bank has maintained a cautious stance ahead of the 2026 Budget — balancing growth support with inflation control.
Singapore – Fiscal Prudence & Institutional Strength
= Focuses on long-term stability, protected reserves, and efficient use of surpluses.
= Invests in competitiveness, human capital, and innovation.
= Strong institutions and transparent fiscal management ensure sustainable growth.
= Lesson: Strengthen PFM systems, build fiscal buffers, and focus on high-return investments.
India – Scale & Infrastructure-Led Growth
= Uses large infrastructure spending and social programs to drive employment and consumption.
= Leverages PPPs and incentives to attract private investment.
= Balances higher deficits with strong growth potential.
= Lesson: Invest in infrastructure, expand PPPs, and manage fiscal risks carefully.
Sri Lanka must balance Singapore’s fiscal discipline with India’s growth-driven investment — building a resilient, inclusive, and forward-looking fiscal framework aligned with its Vision 2048 goals.
Sri Lanka’s Appropriation Bill 2026
Sri Lanka’s Appropriation Bill 2026, which projects total government expenditure at Rs. 4,434.36 billion for the period from January 1 to December 31, 2026, marks a critical point in the nation’s post-crisis recovery path.
After several years of fiscal strain, mounting external debt obligations, and persistent inflationary pressures, the 2026 budget seeks to strike a delicate balance among three key objectives: macroeconomic stabilization, social welfare protection, and structural economic transformation. However, achieving this balance remains a significant challenge.
Expenditure Overview:
= Total Government Expenditure: Rs. 4,434.36 billion
=Recurrent Expenditure: Rs. 3,028.75 billion (68% of total)
= Capital Expenditure: Rs. 1,405.60 billion (32% of total)
This composition reflects Sri Lanka’s enduring fiscal structure, where recurrent spending—driven by public sector salaries, pensions, interest obligations, and subsidies—continues to dominate.
From an economic perspective, this 68:32 ratio highlights the country’s limited fiscal flexibility. For a more sustainable and growth-oriented fiscal path, economists often advocate for a 60:40 ratio, ensuring that a greater share of government expenditure supports capital formation, infrastructure development, and innovation-driven growth.
Fiscal Interpretation
= The recurrent-heavy composition signals fiscal rigidity — the inability of the government to reallocate spending efficiently due to structural commitments.
= Capital expenditure, though improved in nominal terms, still constrains the government’s ability to finance long-term infrastructure, technology, and competitiveness improvements.
= The dominance of consumption-oriented expenditure over investment spending implies that fiscal policy is still more focused on stability and social continuity than on transformation and growth. (See Figure 1)
High-Expenditure Ministries
These five ministries alone account for nearly 65% of the total national expenditure, reflecting the government’s concentration on administration, debt service, and essential social services.
Capital-Intensive Ministries
Some ministries stand out for their high proportion of capital investment, signaling their developmental role:
These allocations emphasize infrastructure development, urban expansion, and irrigation improvement — key pillars of physical and economic connectivity. However, the digital and renewable sectors, though strategically vital, still receive relatively modest allocations compared to traditional infrastructure.
Low-Allocation and Emerging Sectors
Several ministries receive less than 1% of total spending — including Environment (0.41%), Digital Economy (0.36%), Youth and Sports (0.30%), and Science and Technology (0.14%).
From an economist’s perspective, this signals a policy gap between stated national goals (e.g., digital transformation, climate resilience, innovation) and actual fiscal commitment. For a modern economy aspiring to transition toward a knowledge- and technology-driven model, such underfunding represents a missed opportunity.
Key Economic Insights and Structural Issues
The Weight of Recurrent Commitments
Public sector salaries, pensions, and debt servicing consume the majority of recurrent expenditure. This pattern leaves limited fiscal space for productivity-enhancing spending. In 2026, the Ministry of Finance alone accounts for Rs. 634.78 billion, largely reflecting interest and debt repayments, which absorb a significant share of GDP.
Economists caution that such fiscal patterns can lead to a “crowding out effect”, where public debt obligations limit the government’s capacity to invest in education, research, and entrepreneurship — areas critical for long-term economic competitiveness.
Defence and Administrative Overheads
Despite the absence of internal conflict, defence expenditure (Rs. 455 billion) remains over 10% of total expenditure, surpassing allocations for education, agriculture, or digital development. While national security is indispensable, reallocating even a small portion of defence spending toward research, innovation, and human capital could yield higher socio-economic returns.
Social Sector Balance
= Health (Rs. 555 billion) maintains a robust 12.5% share — a positive sign of post-pandemic resilience and continued investment in public healthcare.
= Education (Rs. 301 billion) receives only 6.8%, lower than the global average of 4–6% of GDP recommended by UNESCO for developing nations.
= The Women and Child Affairs (Rs. 16.4 billion) and Social Empowerment (Rs. 38.6 billion) ministries, though small in absolute terms, play crucial roles in human capital and inclusion, yet remain underfunded.
Capital Development and Growth Drivers
Infrastructure-related ministries — particularly Transport, Urban Development, and Agriculture — exhibit a more development-oriented focus. The Rs. 390 billion capital investment in transport aligns with the government’s ambition to modernize logistics, reduce bottlenecks, and attract investment in ports and civil aviation.
However, without parallel reforms in energy, industry, and entrepreneurship, the long-term multiplier effects of these capital projects may remain limited.
Comparative Economic Context
a) India and Singapore as Contrasts
= India’s Union Budget 2025–26 allocates around 37% for capital expenditure, emphasizing infrastructure, manufacturing, and renewable energy.
= Singapore, though smaller, channels over 45% of its annual spending into development projects, digital economy infrastructure, and R&D.
In comparison, Sri Lanka’s 32% capital ratio indicates a more conservative fiscal structure, constrained by debt obligations and revenue limitations.
b) Regional Benchmarking
Countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam have prioritized industrial policy and export competitiveness, leading to GDP growth rates exceeding 6%. Sri Lanka’s fiscal design, heavily skewed toward recurrent expenditure, risks prolonging stagnant productivity unless structural adjustments are made.
Fiscal Policy Implications
a) Fiscal Discipline vs. Growth Ambition
The 2026 Appropriation Bill shows clear signs of fiscal consolidation under IMF guidance — maintaining expenditure discipline while avoiding excessive borrowing. However, fiscal consolidation must be paired with growth-oriented fiscal policy, ensuring that expenditure quality improves, not just expenditure control.
b) Revenue and Deficit Management
= Tax administration efficiency and digital compliance systems.
= Widening of the tax base, especially through formalizing the informal economy.
= Reduction of tax exemptions that erode fiscal capacity.
Without improved revenue mobilization, dependence on domestic and external borrowing could perpetuate debt vulnerability and currency instability.
Monetary and Macro Linkages
Sri Lanka’s fiscal stance directly influences monetary stability. With recurrent expenditure at 68%, the government must rely on short-term borrowing and domestic credit expansion, which can pressure interest rates and exchange rates.
A prudent coordination between the Central Bank’s monetary tightening and the Treasury’s fiscal strategy is essential to prevent inflationary resurgence and maintain external credibility.
Investment Climate and Private Sector Response
From an investor’s perspective, the 2026 budget sends mixed signals.
= On one hand, infrastructure allocations (transport, urban development, irrigation) enhance long-term investment attractiveness and logistics efficiency.
= On the other, persistent fiscal rigidity, high administrative expenditure, and low innovation investment limit the country’s competitiveness in attracting FDI and technology ventures.
To strengthen investor confidence, future budgets must:
= Provide predictable fiscal policy.
= Enhance public-private partnership (PPP) frameworks.
= Support digital transformation, start-up ecosystems, and green industries.
Social and Human Development Dimensions
Economic recovery must be inclusive. With poverty and inequality still elevated post-crisis, social spending quality becomes crucial. The allocations to education, health, women, and youth are essential, yet insufficient to drive structural transformation.
A more effective approach would involve targeted social protection, skills development, and employment-linked welfare programs, particularly for rural and marginalized communities.
Recommendations
= Rebalancing Recurrent vs. Capital Spending
Shift gradually from 68:32 to 60:40, prioritizing productive investment in technology, transport, and renewable energy.
= Performance-Based Budgeting
· Introduce outcome-oriented metrics for ministries — measuring not only spending but impact (e.g., literacy, employment, exports).
= Fiscal Decentralization
· Strengthen provincial councils’ fiscal autonomy while ensuring transparent reporting and auditing.
= Innovation and R&D Investment
· Allocate at least 1% of GDP for science, research, and innovation — critical for productivity growth.
= Public Sector Reform
· Rationalize administrative structures and adopt digital systems to reduce recurrent overhead.
= Green and Digital Transformation
· Scale up investment in renewable energy, climate adaptation, and digital infrastructure, positioning Sri Lanka within the global sustainability agenda.
Conclusion
The Sri Lankan Appropriation Bill 2026 represents a budget of stabilization and continuity, rather than bold transformation. While it ensures essential services, administrative continuity, and gradual infrastructure recovery, it still reflects the weight of historical fiscal constraints.
The economic direction is cautiously positive — signaling discipline under IMF guidance and a slow shift toward investment-led growth. However, to truly unlock its economic potential, Sri Lanka must redefine its spending priorities — from consumption to creation, from protection to production.
A resilient and prosperous Sri Lankan economy will require not only balanced books but balanced vision — one that aligns fiscal responsibility with innovation, inclusivity, and sustainable growth.
Visvalingam Muralithas
is a researcher in the legislative sector, specializing in policy analysis and economic research. He is currently pursuing a PhD in Economics at the University of Colombo, with a research focus on governance, development, and sustainable growth.
He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics (Honours) from the University of Jaffna and a Master’s degree in Economics from the University of Colombo. His academic background is further strengthened by postgraduate diplomas in Education from the Open University of Sri Lanka and in Monitoring and Evaluation from the University of Sri Jayewardenepura.
In addition to his research work, Muralithas has contributed to academia by teaching economics at the University of Colombo and the Institute of Bankers of Sri Lanka (IBSL), and has also gained industry experience as an investment advisor at a stock brokerage firm affiliated with the Colombo Stock Exchange. Views are personal. He can be contacted at muralithas.v@gmail.com
by Visvalingam Muralithas
Features
People’s mandate and judicial legitimacy
Sri Lanka is witnessing the dismantling of the culture of impunity that dominated public life for decades. This is happening through the courts, police investigations and legal process. It is not an easy task and requires strong leadership as it is generating strong resistance. The ongoing revelations about the nexus between politicians, including those at the highest levels, and criminal networks show that the government’s electoral mandate with regard to corruption and crime is now being translated into action through the legal system. The vote of the people at the last national elections was for a corruption free country and an end to the climate of impunity that had prevailed for decades. They voted for a system change that would replace impunity with accountability under the rule of law. They expected those who had looted the country and brought it to the point of bankruptcy to be held accountable through the due process of law.
The cases that are being investigated by the police, in tandem with the Attorney General’s Department, and adjudicated by the judiciary are based on hard evidence. Much of the evidence that is now receiving publicity had been available several years ago and had even entered the legal process. In the past those cases failed to reach fruition. Investigations lost momentum, prosecutions failed to marshal the available evidence and many cases were dismissed, some on technical grounds. Between 2019 and 2024, a total of 102 cases were withdrawn from the courts by the government authorities. The public knew, or strongly believed, that corruption and serious crimes had taken place. The inability to establish wrongdoing before a court of law and hold those responsible accountable created a climate in which political power appeared to provide protection from legal accountability.
A countrywide study titled Factors Guiding Voter Preference in Elections in Sri Lanka was commissioned by the National Peace Council prior to the 2024 elections under the European Union funded project Active Citizens for Elections and Democracy and conducted by researchers Dr Mahesh Senanayake and Ms Crishni Silva of the University of Colombo. It found overwhelming public support for accountability and good governance. While 93 percent of respondents identified resolving the economic crisis as their foremost electoral concern, an equally striking 83 percent said they prioritised candidates committed to fighting corruption. The mandate given to the government can, therefore, be interpreted to mean to restore integrity to public life and end the long standing culture of impunity.
Different Approach
Today, it can be seen that the police, the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption, the Attorney General’s Department and the judiciary are approaching matters of impunity in respect of corruption and crime in a manner that is markedly different from the past. Several persons who formerly occupied high office have now been subjected to due legal process and, in a number of cases, convicted after judicial scrutiny at different levels of the court system. This is an important difference from earlier years when cases involving politically prominent persons frequently failed to proceed or collapsed before reaching their conclusion. The strength of the present accountability process lies not only in the convictions that have been secured but also in the growing public confidence that no one is above the law. It is in this context that reports of a government proposal to extend by two years the retirement age of judges of the Supreme Court and the Court of Appeal have generated support from those who wish to see the present accountability process continue and opposition from those who see it as an attempt to influence the judiciary.
Many countries have increased judicial retirement ages in recognition of longer life expectancy and the value of retaining experienced judges. This has not only been limited to the judiciary but also the academia and the public service. However, the controversy in Sri Lanka is due to the context and as the proposal for an extension of the period of service of judges of the superior courts comes at a time when the courts are hearing politically significant corruption and criminal cases. The Bar Association of Sri Lanka has taken the lead in questioning the proposed constitutional amendment. The BASL has stated that it “notes with grave concern” reports that the government is considering increasing the retirement age of judges of the Supreme Court and the Court of Appeal. It has warned that extending the tenure of sitting judges at this point of time is likely to be viewed by the public as an attempt to interfere with the independence of the judiciary.
The main issue raised by the BASL is therefore one of preserving public confidence in the administration of justice. A discussion organised by the BASL also highlighted that this issue has implications beyond Sri Lanka. Representatives of the Commonwealth Lawyers Association and LAWASIA acknowledged that many countries have increased the retirement age of judges in recognition of greater life expectancy and the value of retaining experienced judges. Their concern was not with increasing the retirement age itself but with changing the tenure of sitting judges while politically significant corruption cases are before the courts. In such circumstances, even well intentioned reform could create a public perception that the judiciary is being influenced to take forward the government’s mandate in a partisan manner.
Maintain Confidence
The challenge before the government is to preserve two equally important objectives. The first is to continue implementing the people’s mandate to hold the corrupt and those responsible for grave crimes accountable before the law. The second is to ensure that nothing is done which could diminish public confidence in the independence and impartiality of the judiciary that is entrusted with carrying out that responsibility. The strength of the present accountability process lies in the confidence it has generated among the public that investigations, prosecutions and judicial decisions are being made according to law as in the convictions that have been secured. Sri Lanka has come a long way from the days when politically sensitive cases rarely reached a successful conclusion. It would be unfortunate if doubts regarding the independence of the judiciary were to overshadow what has otherwise been a significant institutional achievement.
In the face of the concerns expressed by the BASL, opposition political parties and international legal organisations, it would be prudent for the government to widen the discussion on the proposed amendment. If there is a compelling case to increase the retirement age of judges of the superior courts, that case should be placed before the public and parliament and debated openly. Such a constitutional amendment should not rest solely on the government’s parliamentary majority, even if it has the numbers to secure its passage. Simply utilising the numbers that the government on its own to make changes to the constitution will not increase its legitimacy or credibility. Those values will be strengthened if they were preceded by public consultation and supported across party lines in Parliament. Bipartisan political support can be expected from those in the opposition, of whom there are many, who have shown an inclination to practice responsible politics in the national interest.
The people voted not only to change a government but to change a system. They expected those who abused public trust to be held accountable through institutions that commanded public confidence. That expectation is beginning to be fulfilled. It should not be placed at risk by constitutional change that lacks broad public acceptance. If the government believes there is a compelling case to extend the retirement age of the judges of the superior courts, it should first make that case to the people and seek bipartisan support in Parliament with those in the opposition who are also sincere about anti-corruption and good governance. The challenge is to protect the independence of the judiciary while ensuring that no one is above the law. Overcoming this challenge is the surest way to make Sri Lanka’s transition from a culture of impunity to one of accountability a lasting one.
by Jehan Perera
Features
Intelligence-led governance: the strategic path to a sovereign nation
In an increasingly volatile and interconnected world, the strength of a nation is no longer determined solely by the size of its military, the abundance of its natural resources, or the growth of its economy. The true measure of national strength lies in the resilience of its institutions, the confidence of its people, the effectiveness of its governance, and its ability to anticipate and respond to emerging challenges before they become national crises.
The twenty-first century has introduced a security landscape that is far more complex than ever before. Nations today confront not only conventional military threats but also terrorism, organised crime, cyber-attacks, economic instability, disinformation, climate change, pandemics, energy insecurity, irregular migration, financial crimes, and geopolitical competition. These challenges are interconnected and demand integrated responses rather than isolated solutions.
To navigate this evolving environment successfully, every nation requires a shared strategic vision supported by strong institutions working in harmony. At the centre of this vision should be a modern, professional, and intelligence-led system of governance that enables informed decision-making, protects democratic values, and promotes sustainable national development.
A Shared Strategic Vision
Every successful nation should aspire towards a common national vision:
A Sovereign Nation Happy People Peaceful Society Prosperous Economy A Respected Global Partner
These are not independent aspirations but interconnected national outcomes. Achieving them requires every State institution to work collectively under a common strategic framework rather than as isolated entities pursuing individual objectives.
A sovereign nation is one that possesses not only secure borders but also strong institutions, economic resilience, social cohesion, and the confidence to make independent national decisions. Sovereignty today extends beyond territorial integrity to include economic security, cyber resilience, energy security, food security, environmental sustainability, and protection against external influence.
Good Governance: The Cornerstone
The foundation of every successful nation is good governance.
Transparency, accountability, integrity, professionalism, and efficient public administration create an environment where citizens trust their institutions and investors have confidence in the country’s future. Corruption, political interference, inefficiency, and weak institutions undermine national resilience and weaken sovereignty from within.
Good governance is not merely an administrative principle; it is a national security imperative.
When public institutions function efficiently, public services improve, economic opportunities expand, and social grievances diminish. This reduces vulnerabilities that extremist groups, organised criminals, and foreign actors often exploit.
The Rule of Law and Judicial Independence
An independent judiciary is one of the strongest pillars of democracy.
Justice must be administered impartially and without fear or favour. Citizens must have confidence that the law applies equally to everyone, regardless of social status or political influence.
Judicial independence strengthens public confidence, attracts foreign investment, and reinforces national stability. Investors are more likely to invest in countries where contracts are enforceable, disputes are resolved fairly, and property rights are protected.
Likewise, professional law enforcement agencies play a vital role in safeguarding public order. Intelligence-led policing, supported by modern investigative techniques, community engagement, and technological innovation, enables law enforcement to prevent crime rather than merely react to it.
Human Rights: A Strategic Asset
There is often a misconception that national security and human rights exist in opposition. In reality, they reinforce one another.
Respect for human dignity, equality before the law, freedom of expression, religious freedom, and constitutional rights strengthens national unity and social cohesion. Citizens who trust their institutions are more willing to cooperate with authorities, report suspicious activities, and participate in community safety initiatives.
Communities become the first line of defence against extremism, organised crime, and social unrest when mutual trust exists between citizens and the State.
Human rights should therefore be viewed not as obstacles to security but as essential components of sustainable national security.
Intelligence: The Strategic Nerve Centre
At the heart of modern governance lies an effective national intelligence network.
Traditionally, intelligence was associated primarily with military operations and counter-terrorism. Today, its responsibilities extend much further.
Modern intelligence supports political leadership by providing timely, accurate, objective, and actionable information that enables informed decision-making. It anticipates threats, identifies opportunities, and supports strategic planning across all sectors of government.
An effective intelligence system should be:
* Predictive rather than reactive.
* Preventive rather than investigative alone.
* Integrated rather than fragmented.
* Technology-driven rather than paper-based.
* People-centred rather than institution-centred.
Artificial intelligence, big data analytics, cyber intelligence, financial intelligence, geospatial intelligence, satellite imagery, behavioural analysis, digital forensics, and open-source intelligence are transforming the intelligence profession worldwide.
Countries that fail to modernise their intelligence capabilities risk strategic surprise and reduced competitiveness in an increasingly data-driven world.
Intelligence Beyond National Security
Modern intelligence should no longer be confined to counter-terrorism or espionage.
Its role should extend to supporting national development through the protection of critical infrastructure, monitoring economic trends, securing supply chains, safeguarding maritime interests, protecting natural resources, and assessing climate-related risks.
Intelligence should assist policymakers in areas such as:
* Economic planning
* Public health preparedness
* Disaster risk reduction
* Cybersecurity
* Energy security
* Food security
* Environmental protection
* Artificial intelligence governance
* Foreign policy
* Investment protection
An intelligence-led government anticipates future challenges instead of merely responding after crises emerge.
Whole-of-Government Cooperation
One of the greatest weaknesses in many developing nations is institutional fragmentation.
Government agencies often collect valuable information independently but fail to share it effectively. This creates duplication, delays, and missed opportunities.
A National Intelligence Fusion Centre should integrate information from intelligence services, police, armed forces, immigration, customs, financial intelligence units, cyber security agencies, disaster management authorities, health services, and environmental agencies.
Such integration provides decision-makers with a comprehensive national picture and significantly improves crisis management and strategic planning.
Economic Prosperity Through Security
Economic development depends fundamentally upon stability.
Foreign investors seek countries where governance is predictable, corruption is controlled, contracts are enforceable, infrastructure is secure, and political stability is maintained.
An effective intelligence system quietly protects these conditions by identifying threats to investment, monitoring organised crime, preventing financial fraud, protecting critical infrastructure, and safeguarding strategic industries.
Security and economic development are therefore mutually reinforcing.
Investment creates employment.
Employment reduces poverty.
Reduced poverty strengthens social stability.
Social stability reinforces national security.
International Partnerships
No nation can successfully confront modern threats alone.
Transnational organised crime, cybercrime, narcotics trafficking, terrorism, money laundering, illegal migration, and environmental crimes operate across borders.
Regional and global intelligence cooperation has therefore become indispensable.
Information sharing, joint investigations, coordinated maritime surveillance, and collaborative cyber defence significantly enhance national capabilities while strengthening diplomatic relationships.
Strong intelligence supports effective diplomacy.
Effective diplomacy enhances trade, investment, tourism, education, and technological cooperation.
Ultimately, international confidence contributes directly to national prosperity.
The Relationship Between National Stakeholders
National success depends upon collaboration among all stakeholders.
Government provides leadership and policy direction.
The judiciary safeguards justice.
Law enforcement protects public safety.
The intelligence community provides foresight and early warning.
Civil society strengthens social cohesion.
Educational institutions develop future leaders.
The private sector generates investment and innovation.
International partners facilitate trade, cooperation, and knowledge sharing.
Citizens themselves remain the most important stakeholders.
When these institutions operate with mutual trust, shared objectives, and effective coordination, they create a resilient State capable of responding confidently to both domestic and international challenges.
The Strategic Path Forward
Every nation requires a long-term vision rather than short-term political agendas.
That vision should place national interest above partisan interests and institutional collaboration above bureaucratic competition.
The pathway is straightforward:
Good Governance Independent Judiciary Professional Law Enforcement Protection of Human Rights Effective National Intelligence Network Political Stability Investor Confidence Economic Growth Foreign Direct Investment Peaceful Society Happy People A Sovereign Nation
This strategic chain demonstrates that sovereignty is not achieved through military strength alone. It is the cumulative outcome of good governance, justice, intelligence, economic resilience, and public confidence.
The future belongs to nations that can anticipate change, adapt rapidly, and make informed strategic decisions. Intelligence must therefore evolve from being viewed solely as a security function to becoming a central pillar of national governance and development.
A modern intelligence network should serve as the strategic nervous system of the State—connecting governance with justice, justice with security, security with economic prosperity, and prosperity with international respect.
A sovereign nation is ultimately one where institutions are trusted, citizens are protected, rights are respected, opportunities are created, and decisions are guided by knowledge rather than assumption. When all stakeholders work in harmony under a shared strategic vision, the result is a nation that is secure, prosperous, peaceful, and respected on the global stage.
The challenge before every developing nation is therefore not simply to strengthen its security apparatus but to embrace Intelligence-Led Governance as a national philosophy—one that integrates good governance, rule of law, human rights, innovation, and strategic foresight into a unified framework for sustainable national development. Such a vision will not only safeguard sovereignty but also ensure that future generations inherit a nation defined by stability, prosperity, and enduring peace
By Mahil Dole, SSP (Rtd.)
Features
The perfect victim: How institutions respond
It has been almost two months since the judgement of Abeyasinghe v Tilakaratne and others by the Supreme Court. Since then, I have often been asked a simple question, which I, too, have asked myself. “Has anything actually changed?” My answer is both yes and no. Judgements can uphold the law, direct institutions and clarify principles. But they cannot, by themselves, change cultures.
I shall take the liberty of writing this piece because, in the weeks following the judgment, I have found myself reflecting less on the outcome of the case and more on what it reveals about our institutions. Yet institutions do not change simply because a court has spoken. They change only when they are willing to question long-held assumptions, reflect honestly on their procedures and practices, learn from their shortcomings and act decisively to foster a culture that places accountability at its centre.
The myth of the perfect victim
One such assumption is about the conduct of the Ideal or Perfect victim. The concept of the “ideal victim” was first articulated by the Norwegian criminologist Nils Christie in 1986. Interestingly, Christie was not concerned with identifying those most likely to become victims of crime. Instead, his question was who is most readily recognised and accepted by society as a “real” victim? Society is often more willing to extend sympathy and credibility to victims who fit a particular stereotype. According to Christie, the “ideal victim” is someone perceived to be weak and vulnerable, engaged in a respectable activity, in a place where they have every right to be, harmed by someone clearly viewed as “big” or “bad,” and, importantly, a stranger rather than someone they know. These characteristics continue to influence how victims are perceived today. Although we may not consciously apply such criteria, they often shape our instinctive judgments about who deserves to be believed.
In the context of sexual violence within universities, the assumptions surrounding the ideal victim quickly begin to unravel. Power relationships within universities are often complex, and professional relationships may have existed before the misconduct. The alleged perpetrator may not be a stranger but a lecturer, supervisor, colleague, or fellow student. The complainant may continue interacting with the alleged perpetrator because academic progression or employment leaves little choice. When a victim does not fit the mould of the “perfect victim,” attention shifts away from the conduct of the alleged perpetrator and towards the conduct of the complainant.
What should be kept in mind is that victims respond to trauma differently. Some report immediately; many do not. Some become emotional; others appear composed. Some resign from their workplace, while others continue to work because they have no realistic alternative or because they wish to confront the violence head on. Some preserve every piece of evidence; others delete messages simply because they cannot bear to see them again. Yet these perfectly human responses are often interpreted as reasons to doubt credibility.
Universities provide a particularly complex setting for this phenomenon. Most complainants do not initially seek justice. More often, they simply want the harassment to stop so that they can continue their education or employment in an environment where they feel safe. Sometimes victims make anonymous complaints, not because they wish to avoid accountability, but because anonymity provides the only sense of security they have. During preliminary inquiries/ fact finding processes, confidentiality can often be maintained. However, if the matter proceeds to a formal disciplinary process, complainants are usually required to reveal their identities. It is at this point that many decide not to proceed further, not because the harassment did not occur, but because the personal cost of pursuing justice becomes overwhelming.
Perhaps this should prompt us to ask a different question. Instead of asking why anonymous complaints exist or why complainants don’t come forward (sooner), should we not ask why so many complainants feel unsafe engaging with the institutional process?
The subject of scrutiny
When survivors do come forward, they frequently encounter another familiar phenomenon, victim blaming.
“Why didn’t you complain earlier?”
“Why didn’t you go to the police?”
“If you were sexually harassed, why are you still working there?”
“Why did you continue interacting with him?”
“The reason this happened is because you showed positivity towards him.”
“There is no smoke without fire.”
Although these questions appear different, they have something in common. They all examine the behaviour of the complainant. Very few begin by asking why the alleged perpetrator behaved in the way described. The familiar proverb, “There is no smoke without fire,” is often used to suggest that the complainant must have done something to invite the misconduct. Yet perhaps we have misunderstood where the fire lies. The fire is not the complainant’s behaviour. The fire is the conduct of the alleged perpetrator. The complaint is the smoke that finally becomes visible.
These responses also reveal another contradiction. If a victim complains immediately, some might question their motives. If they delay, the delay becomes the issue. If they resign, they may be described as unstable or unable to cope. If they remain in employment, their continued presence is taken as evidence that the misconduct could not have been serious or that it never had happened. If they show emotion, they risk being dismissed as irrational. If they remain composed, they may be accused of exaggerating. In truth, there is often no version of events in which a complainant can satisfy every expectation placed upon them. If our systems only work for the “perfect victim,” then they were never truly designed for victims at all.
The silence that speaks
The recent judgment also prompted me to reflect on another aspect of institutional culture, silence. Within academia, even discussing judgments concerning one’s own institution may be framed as bringing the institution into disrepute. Such framing places academics in an impossible position. Those who speak are sometimes portrayed as being disloyal or as failing to respect the institution they serve. Yet genuine respect for an institution should not require silence in the face of injustice. Universities are places that encourage academic freedom, critical inquiry, evidence-based reasoning, and intellectual debate. They should, therefore, be places where uncomfortable conversations are not avoided but embraced.
The relative silence surrounding the judgment in academia raises important questions. Does silence reflect satisfaction that justice has been served? Does it reflect concern about damaging the reputation of one’s university? Does it reflect uncertainty about whether difficult institutional conversations are welcome? Or does it reflect a real or perceived fear of professional consequences for speaking openly? These are questions that deserve thoughtful reflection.
Post judgement reflections
At the same time, my experience in the weeks following the judgment has also been one of hope. Individuals who have experienced different forms of abuse have quietly come forward to share their own stories with me. Some have sought legal advice. Others have simply wanted someone to listen. Their experiences remind me that judgments do more than resolve disputes between parties. They send messages to those who have remained silent, that seeking justice remains possible. Perhaps that is one answer to the question I posed at the beginning of this article. Has anything actually changed? For some victims, I believe the answer is yes. A judgement can restore hope and encourage those who had previously felt that their voices would never be heard.
Yet judgments alone cannot erase trauma, restore lost years, or undo the personal and professional consequences that many victims endure. Courts can interpret the law, but they cannot, by themselves, transform institutional culture. Culture changes only when institutions and university communities are willing to learn from judgments rather than merely comply with them. It changes when realities of power imbalances are recognised, when credibility is assessed through evidence rather than stereotypes, and when the question “Why did the victim not come forward sooner?” is replaced with “What conditions made it so difficult for the victim to come forward?” Ultimately, the true value of a judgement lies not only in the orders it makes, but also in the conversations it inspires and the institutional self-reflection it demands. Whether anything truly changes will not depend on the judgement itself, but on whether institutions have the courage to learn from them.
(Udari Abeyasinghe is attached to the Faculty of Dental Sciences at the University of Peradeniya)
Kuppi is a politics and pedagogy happening on the margins of the lecture hall that parodies, subverts, and simultaneously reaffirms social hierarchies.
by Udari Abeyasinghe
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