Business
Sri Lanka foreign currency debt obligations due between now and 2026 amount to about US$ 29bn
External liquidity pressures have eased somewhat in recent months
Planned IMF SDR allocation would also add US$780 million to reserves
Authorities have yet to specify foreign-currency debt-servicing plans for the medium term
Sri Lanka’s ‘CCC’ rating reflects a challenging foreign-currency sovereign external debt repayment burden over the medium term, low foreign-exchange reserves and high and rising government debt that give rise to sustainability risks, Fitch Ratings said on Monday.
External liquidity pressures have eased somewhat in recent months following bilateral loan disbursements, and our expectation of a forthcoming IMF special drawing rights (SDR) allocation. Nevertheless, Sri Lanka’s medium-term debt service challenges are substantial and pose risks to the sovereign’s debt repayment capacity, in Fitch’s view. A total of about USD 29 billion in foreign-currency debt obligations are due between now and 2026, against foreign-exchange reserves of USD4.5 billion as of end-April 2021, Fitch said.
The report further said: The authorities have recently secured project financing through various multilateral and bilateral channels, including the Asian Development Bank (AAA/Stable), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AAA/Stable), China Development Bank (A+/Stable) and The Export-Import Bank of Korea (AA-/Stable), as well as swap facilities under the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) currency framework and the People’s Bank of China, equivalent to USD400 million and USD1.5 billion, respectively. The planned IMF SDR allocation would also add USD780 million to reserves. These resources should enable Sri Lanka to meet its remaining debt maturities through the rest of this year, including a USD1 billion International Sovereign Bond maturing in July. However, the authorities have yet to specify their plans for meeting the country’s foreign-currency debt-servicing needs for 2022 and the medium term. They have consistently indicated that they do not plan to seek programme financing from the IMF.
We project foreign-exchange reserves to remain at about USD 4.5 billion by end-2021 before declining to USD3.9 billion by end-2022. Under our baseline, the current account deficit is likely to widen to 2.8% in 2021 and narrow to 2.1% of GDP in 2022. Our forecasts assume remittances will remain resilient in 2021-2022 and tourism is likely to recover only from 2022.
Sri Lanka’s economy contracted by 3.6% in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. We project growth of 3.8% in 2021, down from an earlier forecast of 4.9%, in light of a recent surge in virus cases. We expect the economy to grow by 3.9% in 2022. There remains a high degree of uncertainty associated with our forecasts in light of the evolution of new Covid-19 cases in the country. The authorities plan to inoculate 60% of the population by end-2021, but this target could be hampered by vaccine supply shortages.
Travel and tourism, an important driver of the economy, have been hit hard and the outlook for recovery remains uncertain, particularly given the recent surge in virus cases. The direct contribution of tourism to pre-pandemic GDP was about 4%, but the indirect contribution was much higher. Tourist arrivals in the first five months of 2021 were 97% lower than the same period last year.
The general government deficit widened to 11.1% of GDP in 2020, from 9.6% in 2019, as the economic contraction led to a sharp fall in fiscal revenue. We expect the deficit to remain elevated in 2021 and 2022 at 11.1% and 10.4%, respectively. Our deficit projections are wider than those presented by the government under its growth-oriented strategy of 9.4% and 7.5%, respectively. Under our forecasts, the revenue-to-GDP ratio in 2021 would rise to 10.9% in 2021 and 11.1% in 2022, compared with the authorities’ projections of 11.9% and 13.0%, respectively.
The government’s fiscal consolidation strategy is based on a planned acceleration in GDP growth, underpinned by tax cuts, as opposed to direct revenue-raising or expenditure measures, albeit supported by planned improvements in tax administration. The interest-to-revenue ratio remains high, at around 71% as of 2020, well above the ‘CCC’ median of 13%. The government expects to achieve primary surpluses from 2023, supported by annual GDP growth of 6%, which appear optimistic in our view as we anticipate growth that is closer to 4%, still above the pace in the immediate pre-pandemic period.
General government debt reached 101% of GDP by end-2020, broadly in line with our forecast at our last review in November. Our baseline forecasts suggest this ratio will rise further to 108% by 2022. Fitch does not think the government will meet its 2025 targets of reducing government debt to 70% of GDP and narrowing the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP.
Business
Inflation curbed by govt. fuel subsidy introduction and surcharge on vehicle import tax – CBSL Governor
By Hiran H. Senewiratne
The government’s decision to introduce the fuel subsidy and the surcharge on the vehicle import tax helped curb inflation to a great extent, Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe said.
‘The government this week approved a Rs. 40 billion fuel subsidy for the next three months on top of Rs. 57 billion provided from April-June, Governor Weerasinghe told the media yesterday at the Central Bank head office in Colombo at the CBSL’s monthly monetary policy review meeting.
‘If not for fuel subsidy and surcharge on the vehicle import tax, the inflation would have been higher than the current level, the Governor said.
‘There could have been higher imports and reserve building up would have been difficult. Inflation has risen beyond the Central Bank’s upper band of 7 percent since July, he said.
‘The country’s inflation hit a 37-month high of 8 percent in August after the government raised fuel prices more than 50 percent following the Middle Eastern escalation by end February, Dr Weerasinghe said.
The Central Bank’s inflation target for the past three years have been 5 percent with lower band of 3 percent and higher band of 7 percent, Governor said.
The Governor added: ‘The government provided Rs.57 billion as a fuel subsidy mainly for diesel. The latest Rs.41 billion has been allocated only for diesel as it is used for public transport.
‘The government also imposed a temporary 50 percent surcharge on Customs Import Duty on new personal vehicles on May 16 and has extended it until December 31, a move that will help to prevent outflow of foreign currency.
‘The Central Bank also tightened the monetary policy in May, raising the key monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, to curb excess demand in the economy to control demand-driven inflation.’
Meanwhile, head of the CBSL’s Economic Research Department L.R.C. Pathberiya said, ‘Credit growth has slowed to 24.5 percent year on year in August from a higher level of 30 percent a few months ago, after the Central Bank’s monetary policy tightening in May.
‘However, the Central Bank is optimistic about the current credit growth, he explained.
Pathberiya added: ‘The credit to the private sector from commercial banks has slowed, but we believe it is sufficient for economic growth.
‘The nation’s economic growth slowed to 4.2 percent year-on-year, its lowest in 11 quarters’’.
Business
PM warns Sri Lanka’s waste crisis is a ‘disaster waiting to happen’
By Ifham Nizam
Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya warned that Sri Lanka’s worsening waste-management crisis, particularly the uncontrolled accumulation of plastic waste and poorly managed landfills, was a “disaster waiting to happen”, urging scientists, researchers and policymakers to help the government find practical solutions before the problem reaches a critical point.
Addressing the launching of the Open University of Sri Lanka organized, ‘International Conference on Plastics, Innovations and Environmental Sustainability’ (ICPIES 2026) as Chief Guest, at the Cinnamon Lakeside Hotel yesterday she said waste management, waste reduction and recycling had become national priorities, with the government placing greater emphasis on the issue in its preparations for the 2027 Budget.
‘This is becoming a critical issue and something that, at any moment, if we don’t manage it properly, could become a huge disaster. It’s a disaster waiting to happen, Dr. Amarasuriya said.
She said unregulated and poorly managed landfills, particularly in and around Colombo, posed serious environmental and public risks, while increasing urbanisation was extending the waste-management challenge beyond the capital to other parts of the country.
‘As a member of Parliament for the Colombo District, I can tell you that one of the biggest challenges we are facing is waste management and actually managing the recycling of waste, and particularly of plastic products. This is something that we are battling every day, she said.
The Prime Minister said the government could not regard economic development as meaningful if it came at the expense of the country’s environment and natural resources.
‘If we are to speak of a beautiful life, we must first ensure that the air we breathe, the water we drink, the soil on which we live, the food we eat is clean and secure, she said.
She pointed to the scale of the global plastics crisis, noting that around 400 million tonnes of plastic waste are generated worldwide each year, while between 19 and 23 million metric tonnes of plastic waste enter natural ecosystems annually.
Plastic waste eventually breaks down into microplastics, which can enter aquatic organisms and subsequently the human food chain, she said.
Dr. Amarasuriya also linked plastic consumption and environmental degradation to the wider climate crisis, warning that the consequences of climate change were already being experienced by communities around the world.
She referred to devastating floods and landslides in the Himalayan region and said the impacts of climate change demonstrated that environmental damage could have consequences far beyond national boundaries.
Coastal clean-up projects and other waste-separation and recycling initiatives are also being implemented, while the government is working with the Western Provincial Council on a refuse-derived fuel project at Karadiyana.
The third ICPIES, held under the theme “Eco-Driven Innovations,” brings together researchers, policymakers, industry representatives and other stakeholders to examine plastic pollution, microplastics, circular-economy approaches, waste-management policy, technological innovation, artificial intelligence and smart environmental monitoring. The conference ends today.
Senior Professor P. M. C. Thilakarathne, Vice Chancellor of the Open University of Sri Lanka, was the Guest of Honour.
Business
Mention of possible future inflation dampens investor appetite
By Hiran H. Senewiratne
Stock investors were worried yesterday following Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe’s mention at the CBSL monthly monetary policy review meet of possible future inflation pressures that may impact the economy.
The All Share Price Index went down by 4.89 points, while the S and P SL20 rose by 16.1 points. Turnover stood at Rs 1.55 billion with four crossings.
Those crossings were; Access Engineering crossed 1.5 million shares to the tune of Rs 119.8 million; its shares traded at Rs 79.60, Sampath Bank 450,000 shares crossed tfor Rs 63 million; its shares sold at Rs 140, Sunshine Holdings 750,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 21.4 million; its shares traded at Rs 28.50 and Softlogic Life 290,000 shares crossed for Rs 20.4 million; its shares sold at Rs 70.40.
In the retail market companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were: Access Engineering Rs 150 million (1.9 million shares traded), JKH Rs 113 million (six million shares traded), Softlogic Life Rs 80 million (one million shares traded), Softlogic Capital Rs 64.7 million (6.7 million shares traded), Lanka Realty Rs 64.3 million (1.3 million shares traded), Colombo Dockyard Rs 53.7 million (452,000 shares traded) and Sierra Cables Rs 50 million (1.43 million shares traded). During the day 58.9 million share volumes changed hands in 13536 transactions.
It is said that mixed market reactions were noted especially in manufacturing while banking, insurance and FMCG sectors performed well. Further, construction sector counters, especially Access Engineering, and banking sector counters, especially Sampath Bank, performed well.
People’s Leasing & Finance PLC announced its allotment basis for 100 million listed debentures it issued to raise Rs 10 billion, after receiving applications for the full amount.
Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs 330.68/75 to the US dollar in the spot market from Rs 330.70/90 the previous day, while bond yields were quoted steady to lower, dealers said.
An auction of Rs 80,000 million Treasury bills was ongoing.
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